|
The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
|
JUNE 7th SUMMING UP
|
A tricky race to sum up with none running for trainers who regularly target
FTO wins. In these circumstances a useful type could win anyway with just
a competent debut - as Babodana did in 2002.
In 2005 the market has been an excellent indicator of what type of debut
is expected from a H Johnson runner. The two that have been 4/1 or less
have both been placed and challenged at some point later in the race. The
others have started 10/1+ and never looked likely to get involved. If Original
Source is the better type of debut he could win this quite comfortably
as the trainer's runner did in 2004. If he isn't than it's an open race.
Let's assume for argument's sake that Original Source isn't in the race
- who would be likely to win then? We can cross Cuccinello off the
list, her trainer didn't get FTO winners when the stable was relatively
prospering and had better types, she have to be Listed class to win on
debut. Bacharach & Think Lucky do not appeal as being
good enough to win off a normal trainer preparation. Think Lucky's
regressive sales price suggest he might have a 'hole' in him somewhere.
Chookie Windsor runs for a syndicate attached to the racecourse
members and his trainer's debuts have been competent enough to place so
far in 2005. You would have to think this one would be as ready. However,
his overall profile is a little thin and he may well place at a longer
SP but something ought to be better. Confidential Lady seems to
have '7f+ development type' stamped on her and while she should be plugging
on up the hill it would be a surprise to see here quick enough for 6f.
Moody Tunes & Sweet Lime both run for trainers who don't
target strong debuts but have had FTO winners with better types this season
after getting going late with their 2yos. If either is useful they might
win but both trainers are getting into their normal debut levels after
the initial 'burst' with their natural 2yos.
Which would leave Rainbow Bay as the likely winner by default. His
siblings and mother all made early debuts which he couldn't because he
was at the breeze up sales. His trainer is getting into a string of better
debuts at the normal time of the year after the early season indifferent
ones.
In an ideal world Original Source will be a good one and iron the rest
out at 5/2.
|
|
RACE QUALITY:
|
A race specifically for unraced 2yos which produces a wide range of performances
depending upon the strength of the field. The last 3 winners have all been
useful or better though.
In 2002 the useful Babodana won a weak edition and became a rare debut
winner for his trainer in doing so. The race was moderate and he was relatively
so good that professionalism and/or debut competence didn't matter.
In 2003 the useful filly Venetian Pride became one of her trainer's rarer
debut winners who wasn't a 95+ rater in the season. She wouldn't have won
but for the persistence of jockey K Dalgleish. He kept on pressing her
onward despite her visible inexperience and after the point when most jockeys
would have been practising the 'Piggott' pose. That was a stronger race
than usual with three other solid winners, for non 'FTO trainers', in the
next three places.
2004 was another moderate race overall but brightened by a 6L win by the
superior Abraxas Antelope who was trainer H Johnson's first 2yo runner
for owner G Wylie.
|
|
TRAINERS:
|
M Johnston has run 5 in the race in the last three years with only
one making the first two and only after overcoming notable inexperience.
Three of the five have been winners in the season but in the rating range
73-85 at best.
H Johnson used the race in 2004 to start his 2yo training career
for G Wylie. He ran his best 2yo and he was competent enough to win easily
against a moderate to average group. He has already introduced a very good
2yo as his first runner of the season in an earlier Hamilton maiden and
then four other less competitive debuts.
|
|
PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
|
Moody Tunes rated 76. Average size and heavily built. Slightly lengthy
and mature. Ought to be able to rate low to mid 70s earlyish season although
probably not progress.
Think Lucky rated 70. Not typical of sire and a more compact type
although deep. Physically looked better than the bidding level although
showed moderate athleticism.
|