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June 15th SUMMING UP
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The first open maiden over 7f of the season following two sellers earlier
in the week. The fields in the last three seasons have mainly been made
up of moderate types with odd maiden winners and, more rarely, a better
type among them. The early season date has meant that the moderate 2yos
with previous runs have an advantage and often finish in front of the few
with more scope.
In 2005 the first four places were filled by previous runners (the winner
on 4TO) and none of them won again. The only later maiden winner finished
5th having had trouble getting through the traffic jam that the slow pace
often causes. In 2004 a John Gosden newcomer won from moderate Hannon &
Kirk trained experienced types with the best horse in 5th (Melrose Place
for Mark Johnston who often sends his best 2yos to the course). In 2003
the later Group 1 winner Rule Of Law finished only third to the small &
tubby Grand Rich King (on STO) despite a David Loder preparation.
Put all of that together and a bunched finish off a moderate pace would
not be a surprise. Any of the those with a previous run, other than Alloro,
could make the first four without an eyebrow flickering. The best of those
on profile is Dubai Magic who lost his position before Kempton's
switchback turn on debut and was only asked to do enough to get through
to third. His trainer has a poor record with 2yos but does get STO wins
in this type of race with his best 2yos (he struggles to win at all with
anything other than the best).
Right Options's trainer won this last year with Right Again and
he has the advantage of being in full training for several months. He ran
over 5f in early season. His trainer targets development with racing and
Right Option should make a good showing without having the scope to compete
in better maidens or races. Miss Saafend Plaza looks a pretty typical
2yo that Mr Hannon often gets placed in this type of race because of their
fitness and professionalism (think of the perpetual maiden Miss Caversfield
in 2004 as a good comparison). If you like paddock review then compare
the body shape of his 2yos with the more typical 7f types and ponder about
the types of winners and lack of 3yo development he gets. Venir Rouge
has looked a big galloper and out of place in 6f races when the pace goes
up and he's probably going to find this a bit fast at some point as well.
The remaining question is then who is best of the newcomers? And the supplementary
would be are any of them good enough to win FTO in this set-up? Frosty
Night has a profile to be a good maiden winner at least but, as we
saw with Melrose Place, would need to be better than that to win here.
Al Raahi & Zelos could be average maiden winner
class but the same caveat applies. John Gosden usually gets debut winners
with his best 2yos. Raincoat would have to be another example of
the best owner bred Khalid Abdulla 7f 2yo (like Thousand Words who won
yesterday) just to place off a normal trainer prep.
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