BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2006 Season Race Summary
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Result 2005 Profile

Race 200 : Thirsk June 20th, 7f Maiden (5)

75 74 73 72 71 <70 69 68 67 66 <65 64 63 62 61 <60 59 58 57 56 <55 Under 55
Centenary My Monna [51] Denton Hawk [44]
Greyt Big Stuff Jane Of Arc Kirklees [50] Up The Pole [44]
Straight Face Smugglers Bay [49] Go Red [34]
Suhayl Star Meridian Grey [46] Cicada [22]
Note:- Bold numbers in the grey boxes are the scale for the estimated rating level for this race. The position of the horse's name indicates the expected performance level as assessed before the race. The table can be read from left to right as the expected finishing positions of the runners.

Pre-race Summary
June 19th SUMMING UP
  • The first open maiden of the season over 7f in the north each year and a race with an interesting history because of this. The race was divided last year and here is what B2yoR wrote about the normal race quality :-
  • "Usually a pretty dire race with distinct similarities to early season 5f races. This is one of the first 7f races in the season and trainers tend to use it for 2yos who have already demonstrated they are slow. They are therefore running in an early 7f race to try to get a win before the better 7f+ types appear (and thus similar to the 'cheap speed' early season 5f 2yos, 'cheap slows'?).
  • Now, being slow is subtly different from being suited to longer distances. If you lack at least some pace you are going to struggle to win at any distance other than in the lowest grade against other slow horses. Therefore, for the majority of them this type of race is there best chance of winning. 2004 was a classic example where 12 declared runners never won another race between them.
  • No runner who didn't make the first two in this race have ever won outside selling level at 2yo. The general low quality means that the favourites have a very good record. The 7f allows most of them to show just how slow they are over an extended distance.  Those with at least some pace have plenty of time to overcome any inexperience or other difficulty to get to the front."
  • The two divisions lived down to expectations with the first division produced a single later winner (finished 3rd) in a poor race who then got thrashed off an OR in the low 70s that the BHB handicapper feels he has to give to any maiden winner no matter what quality they actually are. The second divison produced a princely two later winners - the runner-up managed to win a Class 7 Banded AW race on their sixth outing and the third (hampered during the race and running on best at the end) managed an ordinary maiden win.
  • The majority of those 2004 & 2005 fields looked garbage on profile and the one, proper, later maiden winner was a Maktoum owner bred who was identifiable as the best type. Given that background looking at the declarations for this race is a slightly pleasant surprise. There are three of four possibles for minor maiden wins and more than one with some reasonable form in the book. The trainers represented are also an interesting group who include those who use the race for particular types so we can compare their runners this year.
  • Brian Meehan's only runner in recent years (2004) had shown placed form over 6f on his two previous outings while looking too slow to win. He won at 8/11f from a weak field that never won a 2yo race between them. Greyt Big Stuff has looked to have more ability than his previous representative in two runs including a place last time. However, he has been short of pace as the races quickened before gathering himself to make some ground back in the last half furlong. This race looks made for him so long has he handles the turn.
  • Mick Channon runs Suhayl Star after a break and it is instructive to recall what the profile said for the first division of this race in 2005 :- "M Channon runs Royal Power who steps up to 7f from 5f in one go after 3 runs at that distance including an April debut. He won a division of the race with the useful 2yo and later Group 3 winner Naahy. He had run twice over 5f and been placed showing 60s form. He won this race comfortably and developed to rate late 80s over 7f. The trainer is notably for trying 2yos over 5f that others would not."
  • Royal Power ironed out his opponents last year and Suhayl Star has some elements in common. He has had three early runs over 5f and began with a very promising second on the AW in April. Two of those behind have won open maidens at 5f & 6f. If he had added another solid run at 5f and then stepped straight to 7f he would have been top rated for this race. However, his attitude appeared to get the better of him in two later 5f races and he faded badly twice having got stewed up brfore the race. He probably owns more basic pace than Greyt Big Stuff but you would be brave to trust him to come back to form but he may be ew value depending on the price.
  • Straight Face is another who has shown enough to win a weak edition of this race but this does look a bit better than normal. Howard Johnson ran the slow Blushing Hilary on debut in the race in 2005. Here he appears to run a better type with Centenary Star and he received a sound sales rating, especially in the context of a race like this. He was lengthy, weak legged and an obvious slower galloper. But he had scope to develop and given that his trainer's charges often show their best form early he would be competitive here if he developed satisfactorily.
  • There are also possibilities amongst those lower rated for the day. Mark Johnston has run four in the race in the last three seasons and three of those have won later. Two of those have been for the Maktoums and close to the best 2yos that have run in the race. Kirklees has a usable 8f pedigree but has already been 'relegated' to the Maktoum's second string (hangers on team?) 'Jumeirah Racing'. He's likely to be slow but probably able to win a slow event somewhere. Tim Easterby has run eight in the race in the last four years with two STO winners although the other 6 never won as juveniles. Jane Of Arc is his STO runner here but did not show enough on debut to suggest she can compete although she appears to be the first string.. He also runs Smugglers Bay who looked a possible development type at the sales although with a note that he may lack too much build and be too narrow. Something to check on the day to see what future he has after a typically quiet debut for the trainer.
  • Since Kevin Ryan appears able to get wins with anything this season Meridian Bay is another to at least assess for the future. He has an all American pedigree and is by a speed sire. The fact that he starts in a 7f race at the earliest opportunity ridden by a 5lb apprentice does not suggest he is a lot of cop.
  • One other point to note is the effect of the draw at Thirsk. If you watch this race then note how close the long, left hand, bend is to the start of the race. This can encourage a 'charge' for the lead and good positions and any horse caught three, or more, wide will lose ground. The long straight gives the 2yos of the variable quality the time to sort thermselves out to a large extent. Centenary is in stall 2 and well placed if he breaks well, however, Greyt Big Stuff (8), Suhayl Star (12) & Straight Face (13) are going to need to work to get a good place on the bend.
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