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The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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JUNE 12th SUMMING UP
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Overall a moderate looking race on profile and without Royal Power
in the field a performance in the low to mid 60s would probably be enough
to win. He has shown form above that level over 5f while getting outpaced
at some point in each race. If he can see out the 7f on this relatively
easy track his basic pace will probably be too much for the others.
Madam Moschata has had two development runs and stepped up to the
7f she always seemed destined for. She ran too freely and got unbalanced
on her debut over 6f. Dropped down to 5f she led for more than 3f but probably
got outpaced but finished within 3L of the leaders. With the fillies' 5lb
allowance and moderate improvement she is competitive for a place.
Carrietau is hard to sum up. He missed his intended debut after
injuring his jockey and a racegoer. He ran 2 days ago in a muddling race
where the first six home finished together and which looked visually odd.
After what looked like an average pace the first two went clear before
the final furlong (probably down the 'ramp') and looked to be going on
to fight out the finish. They appeared to do this in slow motion in the
last half furlong and by then four others, including Carrietau were closing
back in on them. He was presumably keeping on after being outpaced.
Wicked Daze looks like a 'development' project rather than a STO
win attempt here. Newcomer Satisfaction has a good 5-6f pedigree
but starts at 7f which is not a good sign but in a moderate group would
be able to make some show if there is any ability there. Daedal
is an owner bred and runs for an astute trainer who starts his 2yos in
suitable races. If she's here then presumably she's limited but worth
assessing for what level he would need to move her to for a STO win attempt.
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RACE QUALITY:
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Usually a pretty dire race with distinct similarities to early season 5f
races. This is one of the first 7f races in the season and trainers tend
to use it for 2yos who have already demonstrated they are slow. They are
therefore running in an early 7f race to try to get a win before the better
7f+ types appear (and thus similar to the 'cheap speed' early season 5f
2yos, 'cheap slows'?).
Now, being slow is subtly different from being suited to longer distances.
If you lack at least some pace you are going to struggle to win at any
distance other than in the lowest grade against other slow horses. Therefore,
for the majority of them this type of race is there best chance of winning.
2004 was a classic example where 12 declared runners never won another
race between them.
No runner who didn't make the first two in this race have ever won outside
selling level at 2yo. The general low quality means that the favourites
have a very good record. The 7f allows most of them to show just how slow
they are over an extended distance. Those with at least some pace
have plenty of time to overcome any inexperience or other difficulty to
get to the front.
This year has gathered enough declarations to make two divisions, unlikely
that the quality will have changed.
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TRAINERS:
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T Easterby has run two in the race for each of the last 3 years
so will be delighted by the division of the race. He has had one STO winner
(odds-on), one place and four unplaced and five of them never won at 2yo.
M Prescott runs Wicked Daze who got lost on debut in the same 6f
Windsor maiden as his previous runner in this race. That filly ran 4th
here, ran a clunker on the all weather and then came back to place 2nd
twice stepped up to 8f in nurseries. Has he got the same cunning plan with
this one?
M Channon runs Royal Power who steps up to 7f from 5f in one go
after 3 runs at that distance including an April debut. He won a division
of the race with the useful 2yo and later Group 3 winner Naahy. He had
run twice over 5f and been placed showing 60s form. He won this race comfortably
and developed to rate late 80s over 7f. The trainer is notably for trying
2yos over 5f that others would not.
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SIRES:
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First season sires City On A Hill (Blushing Hilary) & Golden
Snake (Bollin David) have their first 7f runners at an early opportunity.
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