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June 24th SUMMING UP
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Only one runner with a previous run (poor) and the newcomers from trainers
who do not get debut winners except with better types. Not a race to have
strong opinions about befaore the paddock review but an interesting one
to look at to see :-
(a) How well the race and the trainers fit to the expected pattern
(b) How close it is possible to get to the result just by thinking about
the shape of the race and the most likely outcomes.
Because of its position as the first 7f maiden at the July course and around
the Royal meeting it often attracts a thin field inclduing only average
later maiden winners at best. Given the fact it is an early 7f race and
trainer's tend to have their 7f+ types less ready on debut runners with
previous form tend to have a solid advantage. The last two winners have
both been on STO and beaten newcomers.
In 2005 Richard Hannon had a comfortable winner with Porters who had been
unlucky when blocked during a grandstand finish in the first southern 7f
maiden. Despite his taking win he proved to be average, at best, and struggled
in novice & nursery races later. The rest of the field included some
slowish 7-8f maiden winners. A lesson to learn from this is that Newmarket
maidens are very variable in quality. Just because this is a Class 4 at
headquarters does not mean it is full of useful types from top stables.
The 7f maiden at the July meeting will be very much stronger for example.
Trainer's have set tactics and target certain races.
Returning to Mr Hannon he runs Norisan on his STO run after a poor
debut in an average 6f maiden at Goodwood. He never got closer than 9th
in that field and was easily outpaced as the race quickened. He steps to
7f and the trainer usually runs at least an average type in the race. We
should expect a solid improvement from him but he seems unlikely to set
as strong a standard for the newcomers as Porters did last year.
A spin through the others from the bottom of the profile up :-
Present - owner bred by Bloomsbury Stud & one of the few sources
of 2yos that D. Morris has. He hasn't had a a 2yo winner since a seller
success in 2002 (from few runners). He does get his 2yos close to fully
ready on debut so whatever she does today is likely to be what she is.
Given the readiness and the low quality of the race on the day a reasonable
showing is possible, 4th would be typical.
Downbeat & Grand Heights both represent John Dunlop and
are both owner breds where he has trained the siblings and probably the
dam as well. He gets occasional debut wins over 7f with better types (often
for the Maktoum family, and probably Hamdan) but these two seem likely
to be having development runs to try for a 7-8f maiden win on their second
or third runs. A win for either would be a surprise.
Guacamole runs for Barry Hills who is now beyond the period when
he debuts his best mid-season types. Like the Dunlop pair this is another
owner bred out of a stout mare and the fact he runs with Oscar Urbina on
suggests he's ordinary and a middling debut.
Mick Channon has not had a runner in the race in the last two years. He
runs both Halicarnassus & Emerald Wilderness but his
strike rate with 7f debut runners is 3 from 72 in the last three years,
i.e. 4.2% and below average and well below his overall FTO record of 12%.
This tells us he gets his debut wins with his natural 5-6f 2yos in early
to mid-season. Halicarnassus is the first string on jockeys and on pedigree
it is a bad sign that Emerald Wilderness starts at 7f for this trainer.
If he had any pace then he would surely have run over 6f earlier.
So, to summarise to this point, it is a moderate race quality on profile
with average development types involved. The most likely outcome is that
Norisan will wangle a win with a low quality performance but did not show
enough on debut to make that a tempting proposition to bet on at the likely
price. None of the newcomers considered above seem likely to set a good
standard but something has to win. If we imagine that Norisan fails then
one of those could well win by accident. That's two of the possible outcomes.
The third and most interesting is the possibility that Costume is
quite useful. She has a good pedigree and her trainer usually runs the
bulk of his season's winners amongst the earlier debuts. This weekend last
year he had a debut winner with Nannina who won well at 11/2 at Pontefract
so he can get debut winners with better types, especially in this sort
of field. In a race where the other outcomes are pretty hazy it would be
a boon if Costume passes the paddock review in style and lifts this race
out of the 'spot the possible later maiden' winner category.
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