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June 24th SUMMING UP
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A race with an interesting 'shape' and depending upon the market signals
for Hurlingham there is likely to be some value supporting Zeeuw.
Up to June 15th Mark Johnston had run more 2yos than he did in 2005 when
he made slow start. However he had only had 4 winners and a strike rate
around 10% and below his overall record which is normally between 14-19%
at the turf season close. Since then he has run 16 juveniles and got 5
wins (31%) to the end of yesterday's racing. He had three consecutives
winners of races for older horses at the Royal Ascot meeting two days ago
and the consensus is that the stable is back in form after a flat period.
During the last 8 days he has run eight 2yos on debut with 3 wins, 2 seconds
(one to his own debut winner), 1 fourth and two unplaced. The three wins
have included two odds-on winners so it is clear he has been running a
batch of better 2yos who have probably worked together and good runs expected.
Two of those wins have been at extended 7f distances and an indication
of how the trainer targets longer distance races and 3yo, development,
types.
Given that background it would be no surprise to see the expensively purchased
Hurlingham as a short priced favourite with a debut win for him seen as
the only possible result. If he is not a short priced favourite it is probably
an indication that he has not been showing up well in training against
the other recent 7f FTO winners. However, it is worth noting that those
FTO wins have been in poor to moderate Northern races and uncompetitive
fields. When faced with a better opponent Frosty Night & Kirklees have
failed to win on debuit.
Which brings us to Zeeuw who has the prfile to be that solid opponent.
He has a solid pedigree and runs for a trainer who has a clear strategy
with his 2yos - aim for a reasonable debut run in the 3rd-6th place range
and then target a STO win. His only other juvenile to run in 2006 finished
3rd here FTO and then won at Bath STO (aided by a cut-throat pace duel
which did for the favourites). Although the abilities were a little mixed
up at the finish in the AW Novice he made his debut in the subsequent runs
of those involved suggest it was above average. From the widest draw Zeeuw
made a quiet debut, finishing in midfield without being hard pressed. Normal
improvement from that run would see him set a good standard for Hurlingham
and value at 3/1 or more.
Of the others the only one which could get involved for a win would be
Colditz. He attracted some each-way support in the tough Newbury
maiden that the Coventry 2nd & 5th along with the Chesham winner made
their debuts in. He ran poorly and then went to Ripon and ran a sound second
on GF ground in a bunch finish. That form would be a little short of winning
this but would be competitive. However, 3TO at Nottingham he drifted in
the market and then turned it in quickly after getting a bump at the start.
He steps up to 7f and there may be a minor win in him somewhere but he
looks none to reliable at present. One to assess in nurseries if he shows
signs he has sorted his attitude and consistency out.
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