British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season
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Racing Preview - March 31st 
Today's Races
  • 2 : Newcastle 2:10, 5f Conditions (4), "The Brocklesby"

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    Trainer :
    Paddock Review :
  • Hamish Macgonagall (rated 71 and 'good value' at 17,000 guineas at the sales)
  • Ratings : [None]
    Other : [None]


      March 31st Summary : 
     
  • After the 2006 edition of the race, which was an imitation so pale as to be transparent, we return to a field that looks more like what the Brocklesby ought to be. A large field and some runners who will surprise with the amount of ability they have and outrun their profile. That said, it is a heavily Northern trainer biased field and lacking representatives from the more powerful stables in the area. If we go back to 2001-2 we had runners, all subsequent winners, from BW Hills, J, Noseda, M Channon, BJ Meehan and WR Muir. In 2005 when this race was as late as the 10th of the season BW Hills, BJ Meehan and a reasonably expensive JC Fretwell purchase were involved. This field lacks that obvious hint of better quality with a preponderance of cheapish types from lesser stables and the southern runners from the get-them-out-early regulars of Bill Turner and David Evans.
  • Not a high class edition of the race and without the better southern representatives or a Brian McMahon style fine tuner not a high rating bar to get over to win and place. That, plus the large field and warnings about the draw bias on the course could bring about longer priced runners involved and a 2yo with just above average ability able to compete well for the win even if not at their peak. On profile B2yoR would split the runners into :-
  • Contenders and On-The-Premises (first 5 or 6 home & most of future better winners) = Goldhill Fair, Silver Wind, Not My Choice, Hamish Macgonall, The Magic Blanket & Mister Hardy.
  • Midfield+ (odd later winner) = Fol Hollow, Blazing Bullet, Northgate Lodge**, Wizzy Izzy, Runswick Bay & Alpen Adventure.
  • The Rest = Caught In Paradise, Miss Tilen, Turn And River, Portrush Storm & La Belle Joannie.
  • The top six can be further split into possible winners of which Goldhill Fair, Silver Wind & Not My Choice are joined by The Magic Blanket. The other two are likely later winners in Hamish Macgonall & Mister Hardy whereby a 3rd-6th placing would be a typical good start by their methods. The caveat that is worth restating is that these six don't set a strong standard on profile so are not out of reach of a better physical type in the lurker category.
  • Let us start by considering the runners at the obvious point with Bill Turner's representative - Goldhill Fair. Here's a trainer who has won the race three times so surely knows what it takes and how to get one ready? Well yes and no. Last year's winner in Spoof Master won on his second run having placed on debut and beat a pretty ghastly bunch in doing so and that remained his only win. His debuts in recent years have produced only occasional wins, normally at longer odds, and for one owner in MS Teversham. His last winner of this race on debut was The Lord in 2002 who ran away from a moderate group but was a really good 2yo. His record between The Lord and Spoof Master is 2003 (Gameset'n'match, 17th at 8/1, never won), 2004 (Westbrook Blue, 3rd at 8/1) & 2005 (Merchant Bankes, 5th at 20/1). So whether Goldhill Fair is good enough to win this on debut depends greatly on how good he is, he won't win if there's a better athlete in the field even if he's more ready.
  • In a recent interview in the Racing Post (which felt like the same one we read about him at the same time every year) he did confirm that he presses his 2yos to get them ready early and those that can't stand the work don't get out this early. This includes matching the 2yos in pairs in mini-races to establish a heirarchy. From this we can assume that Goldhill Fair is close to the best he has but unlikely to be 'the best'. He's likely to be at an unrealistically short price given the field and on balance one to oppose. B2yoR would prefer to find Mr Turner's debut winner in 2007 at longer odds in the next two weeks, perhaps with another Teversham runner with Lord/Lady in the name. In the article Mr Turner also confirmed a view that B2yoR has held in that he is happy in his niche and has a one-dimensional approach. His final quote was "I'd rather buy 20 cheap ones than one dear one. If someone gave me £150,000 to buy a horse I wouldn't have the bottle to spend it". Which is precisely why he's never made the leap to new levels that Stan Moore, Tim Pitt, etc have done.
  • Silver Wind is an expensive purchse by David Evans' standards and with a solid 5f pedigree, and an interesting one. His sire Ishiguru made a just about acceptable start in 2006 in his first season and did get 5f winners. His dam cost less than 2k but won a 5f Auction off bottom weight early in May at 2yo. Her first foal - My Lovely - won a 5f seller and then went to Beverley to turn Kyllachy over in a 5f Novice (B2yoR still has the odd cold sweat thinking back to that day, but time to let it go, probably). Mr Evans bought a subsequent foal for 9,000 guineas who was named The Crooked Ring and was a rare Newmarket debut runner for the trainer and a good winner (having been ironed out by Royal Alchemist previously). The trainer, as they often do, returns to a family he knows and this has always seemed the intended target. 
  • Like Bill Turner the trainer gets all the majority of his 2yos fit and ready for the start of the season but his debut win record isn't strong despite that. He tends to get one debut winner in this early stage each season but the SPs can be in double figures. His only debut runner in the race in recent seasons was the very limited (and bred for 8f) Everyman who was third in last season's farce. Given the sales price and the preparation Silver Wind ought to compete well and an SP below 11/2 would be a positive sign.
  • The other trainer with a recent debut winner of the race in Linda Stubbs with Next Time Around beating the last of the Brian McMahon specials (Dance Night). The stable runs only a handful of 2yos each year but B2yoR has a high regard for the skill and organisation the show in handling them. The 2yos run when they are prepared enough to compete well on debut and the earliest debuts will normally include their best 2yo. She runs two here and The Magic Blanket has a better profile and is probably the first string. An SP in single figures would be a good sign but one to watch for a good showing in the race.
  • The most likely better type in the top six is Tim Pitt's Not My Choice and as previously covered in these previews he seems likely to be a trainer who will give winning a race like this a serious shot. In the context of the field for this race Not My Choice was realtively expensive purchase and is Choisir's first runner in Britain although he has already had success in Australia with his 2yos.
  • The other two in the top six are Hamish MacGonagall and Mister Hardy who would be surprise winners but ought to make the first 6 and show promise for a future win. Hamish MacGonagall was reviewed at the sales and looked good value at 17,000 and a neater and readier type than many by his sire (Namid, like Compton Place who is also by Indian Ridge, gets a number of bigger, lengthy and 'boaty' types). That sire provided the winner of this race in 2004 with Next Time Around and the dam well bred although with limited success with her previous foals. 
  • His trainer - Tim Easterby - is very different from Turner & Evans and debuts are for 'nice introductions' and not win attempts - that's what second runs are for. He gets odd debuts wins by they tend to be in late April with a useful type and the SPs don't indicate it. This is an early debut by his standards and mid-April is when the main batch will begin. His last runner in this race was Mind Alert who finished a solid 4th at 20/1 before winning and the profile suggest that Hamish Mac ought to be at least a similar type and one to watch for the future.
  • Mister Hardy was also reviewed at the sales and rated slightly below Hamish MacGonagall but with a good chance of being a 2yo winner at average level. Typical of his sire in geometry but with a little more size. However, Kyllachy didn't get a winner before May in 2006 and his trainer has an odd record with his early runners. If you look at Richard Fahey's debut win record it has risen to be at least average in 2004-6 but all the wins have been in the May-July period. He hasn't had a winner before May in the period 2001-6 and only 3 by end-May in that period. So, although a good trainer not one that appears to get into gear with the 2yos this early. Another to check for future possibilities. 
  • The type of variability that Mr Fahey shows is a good example of why the tick-box approach of the Racing Post is somewhat suspect. Mr Fahey has an average record FTO with all his 2yos but you need to know what period that is in. 
  • The rest of the field don't have strong profiles for the race on debut but there's likely to be at least one surprise runner from the group. Northgate Lodge is noted with an asterisk purely because his trainer - Mel Brittain - appears to be up to something in 2007. He had a small number of 2yo runners in 2002, 04 and 06 but none in the odd numbered years. He had four entries for this race and runs two. They all appear to be owned by him in some form. His previous debuts since 2002 have produced 10 unplaced runs at 33/1 at longer and a 10/1 debut winner in a dire division of the 5f Auction that Beverley holds in Mid-April. So not one to expect to win but interesting to see what wll these early runners for the trainer are for.
  • The vague possibles for a surprise would appear to be Blazing Bullet (trainer got a 12/1 debut win in April in 2006 and earliest debuts usually well prepared) and Fol Hollow. Although David Nicholls debut wins have tended to come with his very best types and his overall record with 2yos is pretty mixed.
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