After the 2006 edition of the race, which was an imitation so pale as to
be transparent, we return to a field that looks more like what the Brocklesby
ought to be. A large field and some runners who will surprise with the
amount of ability they have and outrun their profile. That said, it is
a heavily Northern trainer biased field and lacking representatives from
the more powerful stables in the area. If we go back to 2001-2 we had runners,
all subsequent winners, from BW Hills, J, Noseda, M Channon, BJ Meehan
and WR Muir. In 2005 when this race was as late as the 10th of the season
BW Hills, BJ Meehan and a reasonably expensive JC Fretwell purchase were
involved. This field lacks that obvious hint of better quality with a preponderance
of cheapish types from lesser stables and the southern runners from the
get-them-out-early regulars of Bill Turner and David Evans.
Not a high class edition of the race and without the better southern representatives
or a Brian McMahon style fine tuner not a high rating bar to get over to
win and place. That, plus the large field and warnings about the draw bias
on the course could bring about longer priced runners involved and a 2yo
with just above average ability able to compete well for the win even if
not at their peak. On profile B2yoR would split the runners into :-
Contenders and On-The-Premises (first 5 or 6 home & most of future
better winners) = Goldhill Fair,
Silver
Wind, Not My Choice, Hamish
Macgonall,
The Magic Blanket
&
Mister Hardy.
Midfield+ (odd later winner) = Fol
Hollow, Blazing Bullet,
Northgate
Lodge**, Wizzy Izzy, Runswick
Bay &
Alpen Adventure.
The Rest = Caught In Paradise,
Miss
Tilen, Turn And River,
Portrush
Storm & La Belle Joannie.
The top six can be further split into possible winners of which Goldhill
Fair, Silver Wind & Not My Choice are joined by The Magic Blanket.
The other two are likely later winners in Hamish Macgonall & Mister
Hardy whereby a 3rd-6th placing would be a typical good start by their
methods. The caveat that is worth restating is that these six don't set
a strong standard on profile so are not out of reach of a better physical
type in the lurker category.
Let us start by considering the runners at the obvious point with Bill
Turner's representative - Goldhill Fair. Here's a trainer who has won the
race three times so surely knows what it takes and how to get one ready?
Well yes and no. Last year's winner in Spoof Master won on his second run
having placed on debut and beat a pretty ghastly bunch in doing so and
that remained his only win. His debuts in recent years have produced only
occasional wins, normally at longer odds, and for one owner in MS Teversham.
His last winner of this race on debut was The Lord in 2002 who ran away
from a moderate group but was a really good 2yo. His record between The
Lord and Spoof Master is 2003 (Gameset'n'match, 17th at 8/1, never won),
2004 (Westbrook Blue, 3rd at 8/1) & 2005 (Merchant Bankes, 5th at 20/1).
So whether Goldhill Fair is good enough to win this on debut depends greatly
on how good he is, he won't win if there's a better athlete in the field
even if he's more ready.
In a recent interview in the Racing Post (which felt like the same one
we read about him at the same time every year) he did confirm that he presses
his 2yos to get them ready early and those that can't stand the work don't
get out this early. This includes matching the 2yos in pairs in mini-races
to establish a heirarchy. From this we can assume that Goldhill Fair is
close to the best he has but unlikely to be 'the best'. He's likely to
be at an unrealistically short price given the field and on balance one
to oppose. B2yoR would prefer to find Mr Turner's debut winner in 2007
at longer odds in the next two weeks, perhaps with another Teversham runner
with Lord/Lady in the name. In the article Mr Turner also confirmed a view
that B2yoR has held in that he is happy in his niche and has a one-dimensional
approach. His final quote was "I'd rather buy 20 cheap ones than one
dear one. If someone gave me £150,000 to buy a horse I wouldn't have
the bottle to spend it". Which is precisely why he's never made the
leap to new levels that Stan Moore, Tim Pitt, etc have done.
Silver Wind is an expensive purchse by David Evans' standards and with
a solid 5f pedigree, and an interesting one. His sire Ishiguru made a just
about acceptable start in 2006 in his first season and did get 5f winners.
His dam cost less than 2k but won a 5f Auction off bottom weight early
in May at 2yo. Her first foal - My Lovely - won a 5f seller and then went
to Beverley to turn Kyllachy over in a 5f Novice (B2yoR still has the odd
cold sweat thinking back to that day, but time to let it go, probably).
Mr Evans bought a subsequent foal for 9,000 guineas who was named The Crooked
Ring and was a rare Newmarket debut runner for the trainer and a good winner
(having been ironed out by Royal Alchemist previously). The trainer, as
they often do, returns to a family he knows and this has always seemed
the intended target.
Like Bill Turner the trainer gets all the majority of his 2yos fit and
ready for the start of the season but his debut win record isn't strong
despite that. He tends to get one debut winner in this early stage each
season but the SPs can be in double figures. His only debut runner in the
race in recent seasons was the very limited (and bred for 8f) Everyman
who was third in last season's farce. Given the sales price and the preparation
Silver Wind ought to compete well and an SP below 11/2 would be a positive
sign.
The other trainer with a recent debut winner of the race in Linda Stubbs
with Next Time Around beating the last of the Brian McMahon specials (Dance
Night). The stable runs only a handful of 2yos each year but B2yoR has
a high regard for the skill and organisation the show in handling them.
The 2yos run when they are prepared enough to compete well on debut and
the earliest debuts will normally include their best 2yo. She runs two
here and The Magic Blanket has a better profile and is probably the first
string. An SP in single figures would be a good sign but one to watch for
a good showing in the race.
The most likely better type in the top six is Tim Pitt's Not My Choice
and as previously covered in these previews he seems likely to be a trainer
who will give winning a race like this a serious shot. In the context of
the field for this race Not My Choice was realtively expensive purchase
and is Choisir's first runner in Britain although he has already had success
in Australia with his 2yos.
The other two in the top six are Hamish MacGonagall and Mister Hardy who
would be surprise winners but ought to make the first 6 and show promise
for a future win. Hamish MacGonagall was reviewed at the sales and looked
good value at 17,000 and a neater and readier type than many by his sire
(Namid, like Compton Place who is also by Indian Ridge, gets a number of
bigger, lengthy and 'boaty' types). That sire provided the winner of this
race in 2004 with Next Time Around and the dam well bred although with
limited success with her previous foals.
His trainer - Tim Easterby - is very different from Turner & Evans
and debuts are for 'nice introductions' and not win attempts - that's what
second runs are for. He gets odd debuts wins by they tend to be in late
April with a useful type and the SPs don't indicate it. This is an early
debut by his standards and mid-April is when the main batch will begin.
His last runner in this race was Mind Alert who finished a solid 4th at
20/1 before winning and the profile suggest that Hamish Mac ought to be
at least a similar type and one to watch for the future.
Mister Hardy was also reviewed at the sales and rated slightly below Hamish
MacGonagall but with a good chance of being a 2yo winner at average level.
Typical of his sire in geometry but with a little more size. However, Kyllachy
didn't get a winner before May in 2006 and his trainer has an odd record
with his early runners. If you look at Richard Fahey's debut win record
it has risen to be at least average in 2004-6 but all the wins have been
in the May-July period. He hasn't had a winner before May in the period
2001-6 and only 3 by end-May in that period. So, although a good trainer
not one that appears to get into gear with the 2yos this early. Another
to check for future possibilities.
The type of variability that Mr Fahey shows is a good example of why the
tick-box approach of the Racing Post is somewhat suspect. Mr Fahey has
an average record FTO with all his 2yos but you need to know what
period that is in.
The rest of the field don't have strong profiles for the race on debut
but there's likely to be at least one surprise runner from the group. Northgate
Lodge is noted with an asterisk purely because his trainer - Mel Brittain
- appears to be up to something in 2007. He had a small number of 2yo runners
in 2002, 04 and 06 but none in the odd numbered years. He had four entries
for this race and runs two. They all appear to be owned by him in some
form. His previous debuts since 2002 have produced 10 unplaced runs at
33/1 at longer and a 10/1 debut winner in a dire division of the 5f Auction
that Beverley holds in Mid-April. So not one to expect to win but interesting
to see what wll these early runners for the trainer are for.
The vague possibles for a surprise would appear to be Blazing Bullet (trainer
got a 12/1 debut win in April in 2006 and earliest debuts usually well
prepared) and Fol Hollow. Although David Nicholls debut wins have tended
to come with his very best types and his overall record with 2yos is pretty
mixed.
|