British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - June 19th 
Today's Races
  • [191] : Ascot 2:30, 6f Group 2 (1) "Coventry Stakes"
  • [192] : Ascot 5:30, 5f Listed (1) "Windsor Castle"
  • [193] : Thirsk 2:15, 6f Seller (5)
  • [194] : Thirsk 2:50, 7f Maiden (5)
  • [195] : Yarmouth 7:00, 5.2f Auction (6)

  • Checkout
    Trainer :
  • Trainer Records in the Royal Ascot 2yo races between 2002-6.
  • Paddock Review :
  • Pictures of 13 of the runners for the Coventry Stakes are presented in a - 'Virtual Paddock' - format.
  • Ratings :
    Other :
  • First season sire Acclamation has made a fast start with his runners in Britain with 13 winners of 17 races to June15th. He has a pedigree which has 'precocious 2yo' on both the sire and dam sides so the ability to get early winners is not too much of surprise. The test remains to see whether he is getting runners with more longer term potential rather than just close to their best by mid-season as juveniles. His own sire's record shows most of the better class runner's as 2yos although on the plus side Acclamation was, until Majestic Missile, the only older Group winner in Europe. He has two runners in the Coventry with dual irish winner Pencil Hill (cost 8,000 guineas twice and from a mediocre female side) and Cee Bargara (54,000 guineas from a middling female side).
  • At Yarmouth the filly Dalkey Girl runs in a modest 5.2f auction with bottomweight and a solid 5lb apprentice. On debut she made more ground in the centre of the track at Lingfield's turf course than any other runner. That form wasn't strong but neither is this one and her debut race has produced the first and second in a Kempton auction event since and she appeared to show at least as much promise as that pair.

  •   June 18th Summary : 
     
    • The Coventry Stakes usually brings together a big field and with apparently a great deal of potential. However, the majority of the runners will be average to useful 2yo runners and below Group Class. In these Royal Ascot races the small set of higher class 2yos, if they are present, tend to come to the front of the race and finish clear of the just 'useful' types by clear margins. Last year's - Result - shows a lower quality edition of the event but still spread out (with one obvious exception) by basic ability. The winner Hellvelyn was a notably precocious 2yo that hasn't developed much and not won since. The second returned with sore shins which kept him off the course until, typically for his trainer, winning an early season Group 3 as a 3yo. The small third has won at Listed level as a 3yo and then you are into the handicappers & borderline Listed runner types. There are usually hints of which are the best of the precocious types, in 2005 Red Clubs had shown a notable ability to quicken prior to his win, last year Hellvelyn had looked much more forward and suited to fast ground than an average type for the race. The confidence from the Hannon stable and his impressive win said that Major Cadeaux was better than their average runner (they have none this year showing they don't 'run the best they have' like Mick Channon).
    • The obvious exception in the 2006 result is Holy Roman Emporer down in 15th place and the one who developed from the race to be a true Group 1 performer. His trainer put his failure down to lack of mental maturity. Which brings us to this year's race and a very similar set-up. The best of the British trained runners seem a similar group to last year's and probably more at the good, precocious, 2yo end than the 'real thing' Group 1 types. Aiden O'Brien runs three and the best of them is likely to be the 'real thing'. But, and a big one, his record with representatives in the race shows a clear change between 1998-2002 and in the later years. In the earlier period he won the race 4 times in 6 years and that with Rock Of Gibraltar only managing a hampered 6th. Since 2003 he hasn't had a runner placed and Statue Of Liberty's 2002 win was his only win at the meeting in 2002-6 with a 2yo.
    • The Coolmore record overall doesn't seem to be that bad which suggests that perhaps they have changed there approach? Perhaps Statue Of Liberty gives a clue. He was an expensive yearling by Storm Cat and won a 5f maiden and the Coventry and nothing afterwards. A record like that of a useful, precocious 2yo who has been trained like one. His unplaced runners in the race since 2003, leaving aside the moderate Newton & second string Amigoni, have been 10f Group 1 winner Oratorio, 7f Group 1 winner Holy Roman Emporer and 8f Group 1 placed Marcus Andronicus. A less precocious and more development group and the ones from their races still competing well at the highest level later and as 3yos (we obviously don't know what sort of 3yo Holy Roman Emporer would have made).
    • Mr O'Brien runs three this year and it's likely that at least two of them are better types but will they be ready enough to win a tough race like this off the preparations the trainer now uses? Henrythenavigator is presumably the 'first string' although it's most unlikely they have been tested fully and one of the other pair may well be more 'knowing'. He has a 7f+ development pedigree and one which says he ought to be around competing at Group 1 level at 8-10f as a 3yo. But, he has only won a 7f maiden at a lesser course in a slowish time. Holy Roman Emporer & Oratorio couldn't win STO off 6f maiden wins.
    • His other two runners have both had two runs and in what looks an open year the best of these is likely to be competitive for the places. Greek Mythology placed in what seemed a lesser quality renewal of the 6f Newbury maiden in late May before winning a 7f maiden in Ireland in a slowish time. He was a smaller type and didn't look really high class at Newbury and off a 7f win would probably need this to be more of a stamina test than a fast 6f type of race. South Dakota has had a different preparation and more like the pre-2003 type. He made a winning debut over 5f on May 3rd and then was just beaten in a 6f Conditions race by Pencil Hill (on debutat 33/1). The preparation is more in line with a Coventry winner but the race he ran in second time suggests he is probably not a better one.
    • The other Irish runner with Pencil Hill has a low class background and has already outrun his 'cheap' background and another positive for Acclamation. He followed up the 6f debut win (at 33/1 from previous winners) by dropping back to 5f to win a Listed event (at 12/1). His overall profile suggests he is a similar type to the best of the precocious British trained runners and could compete for the win in an average edition of the race but not if there is a really classy type to be revealed (such as Three Valleys in 2003).
    • The following table gives the full 'Class Ladder', with the usual note that runners that have not been seen at the course have a rating based on their overall background alone.
    Class Level Coventry Stakes
    101+
    96-100 Henrythenavigator (99?)
    91-95
    86-90 Yem Kinn (86)
    81-85
    Luck Money (84)
    Bob's Surprise (83), Pencil Hill (83?)
    Declaration Of War (82), Greek Mythology (82)
    76-80
    Swiss Franc (79)
    Mount Pleasure (78)
    Burnwynd Boy (77)
    Cee Bargara* (76), Aaim To Storm (76)
    71-75 South Dakota (75?)
    Dubai Dynamo (74), Ruff Diamond (74)
    66-70 Coasting (70), Ernie Owl (70?)
    Lindoro (69)

    Atheer Dubai (67)

    61-65
    Bere Davis (64)
    • Which has a similar look to 2006 when Holy Roman Emporer was clear at the top of the Class Ladder and proved the best horse but couldn't win the race. Henrythenavigator has a reputation as being good and has a profile which says he will still be around at Group 1 level this time next year. The alternatives are Pencil Hill who is not easy to rate but the background suggests a placed run at best. The alternatives are the best of the British runners - Yem Kinn, Luck Money, Bob's Surprise and Declaration Of War. If we applied the 'Where will they be a year from now?' test none seem likely to be competing to win Group 1 races at the meeting. Remember, for example, that if you could have foreseen the future the British raced runners the result pretty much followed it in ability spread. (Foreseeing HRE's future at stud as a 3yo would have been impossible). 
    • Yem Kinn won a moderately run 5f race on debut and the performance of those behind have suggested a good debut performance and the trainer has a good record at the meeting. He looked capable of competing in this class on physical set-up. Luck Money was very fit and ready for his debut win and looked to have a slightly nervous attitude. He probably has less scope to improve than Yem Kinn from what he did first time and there's a hint he might not be the most consistent type. If he tries to front run away from this field, as he did on debut, he should get run down later in the race. Declaration Of War is not supposed to be as good as Orientalist Art (whom Luck Money beat FTO) but he has impressed with his no-nonsense professionalism and strong finishes in his two wins and ought to place here although there is probably something with a bit more class.
    • Barry Hills has only run three in the race in the last 5 years with a win for Red Clubs (shown an ability to quicken) and two unplaced runs by Surbiton and Captain Marvelous. The last two both improved to win at Listed or Group Class and suggests he chooses his runners in the race well. Bob's Surprise made his debut at a typical time, and in a typical race, for the trainer to introduce his Coventry type and was one of a few this season to show an ability to quicken. He wasn't going away from particularly strong opposition and despite his size he lacks some build to really convince as top class but would be one to follow even if unplaced here.
    • In summary, leaving aside the Irish runners for one moment the best of the British runners seem to be the top end of the 'useful & precocious' ability range and Yem Kinn & Bob's Surprise seem likely to be the best value. Declaration Of War a good each-way prospect staying on late. Pencil Hill is an unknown to some extent but doesn't particularly appeal as being better than what we have seen in Britain. On recent record the O'Brien runners wouldn't have the preparation to win a tough and competitive edition of the race unless they are naturals and very useful. Henrythenavigator might be that good but the price would have to be realistic and factor in the lack of 6f precociousness and racing experience to make him seem a good bet. (Oh, and Cee Bargara has an asterisk next to his name because when the ratings are being produced a runner often niggles away as being underestimated and he was that one. Coasting ought to niggle away but doesn't.)
    • The Windsor Castle Stakes is a Listed level race and below the Group level of the other five juvenile races at the Royal meeting. The males (Norfolk Stakes) and the fillies (Queen Mary Stakes) have their own '5f Championship' races and the Windsor Castle is usually a lower class event filled mainly with future handicappers.  The Class Ladder for the 2007 edition is below.
    Class Level Windsor Castle Stakes
    91-95
    86-90
    81-85
    Achilles Of Troy (83)
     
    76-80 Hatta Fort (79)

    Drawnfromthepast (76)

    71-75
    Befortyfour (74)
    Fat Boy (73)
    Freds Lad (72, Pen 4lbs), Vhujon (72)
    Dark Angel (71), Western Art (71)
    66-70 Paveroc (70), Party In The Park (70)
    Enodoc (69)

    Major Eazy (67)
    Sudden Impact (66, receives 5lbs)

    61-65 Dream Eater (65)
    ?Kingsgate Native (64)

    Magical Speedfit (62)

    Gasmanfightsback (60)

    Below 60
    Little Pete (57)

    Mister Fips (52)

    • Now, watching on the TV is often a poor second to actually seeing the horses live. However, if you had told B2yoR after Achilles Of Troy had thrashed what looked at least an average field at Newmarket on debut that he would be beaten next time and be in this race and not the Norfolk or Coventry it would have been a surprise. He looked so big and yet such a good mover over the Newmarket rolling ground that he looked to be the 'real thing'. The performances of those behind have tended to confirm he wasn't running away from a great deal but the impression he left is still there. He is one of the horses it will be most interesting for B2yoR to see on Tuesday. Anyway, unlike the O'Brien runners in the Coventry we already know this one can do it and is still probably the best option for a higher class victor (as with Holborn in 2003 for example).
    • Hatta Fort made his debut in the same Leicester race as Western Art and finished behind him but looked a much better prospect to develop having been too immature and wound up on debut. He was still not mentally the finished article at Windsor but won a strong Novice comfortably and leaving the impression he was far from hard pressed. He seems best of the British trained runners along with Drawnfromthepast who gave one of the few wide margin wins we have seen this season at Brighton (another one of those 'hints' of better types) and wasn't much out of third gear. 
    • Just behind that pair is a pack of useful 2yos but not obviously with the class to step to the front of the race. Fat Boy needs to prove himself after a poor run last time and his debut race form looks pretty weak now. We have seen all of what Freds Lad can do and with his penalty he shouldn't be up to the task. Vhujon gave such a strong frontrunning performance on debut on firm ground it is difficult to believe that he has much improvement left to show and easier ground would limit his effectiveness. The most interesting of that pack is possibly Befortyfour because the trainer has so few runners at the meeting and a good record with those he does. He was presumably supposed to win on debut having been sent up to Ripon and supported in the market to favourite. He may have been somewhat compromised by running hard early on to get to the rail and press the leader and been softened up for picking off by Roker Park. Either that or Roker Park is pretty useful which seems unlikely. Probably an interesting each-way type.
    • At Thirsk they run the first open maiden of the season in the North and a big field this year with no divisions. The early position of the race in the season has lead to it having an interesting history. The majority of the field tend to be slow and limited and later winners from the race above seller/claimer level rare. Indeed, without Mark Johnston running Maktoum owned 2yos in the race (he runs Parliamentary here) they would be close to non-existent. The - Result - of last year's race show the second and third managing to win at open level and the 4th and 5th at lower level. For those who wish for greater detail about the type of race it tends to be and the trainers who target it please see last year's Profile
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