-
The Coventry Stakes usually brings together a big field and with apparently
a great deal of potential. However, the majority of the runners will be
average to useful 2yo runners and below Group Class. In these Royal Ascot
races the small set of higher class 2yos, if they are present, tend to
come to the front of the race and finish clear of the just 'useful' types
by clear margins. Last year's - Result
- shows a lower quality edition of the event but still spread out (with
one obvious exception) by basic ability. The winner Hellvelyn was a notably
precocious 2yo that hasn't developed much and not won since. The second
returned with sore shins which kept him off the course until, typically
for his trainer, winning an early season Group 3 as a 3yo. The small third
has won at Listed level as a 3yo and then you are into the handicappers
& borderline Listed runner types. There are usually hints of which
are the best of the precocious types, in 2005 Red Clubs had shown a notable
ability to quicken prior to his win, last year Hellvelyn had looked much
more forward and suited to fast ground than an average type for the race.
The confidence from the Hannon stable and his impressive win said that
Major Cadeaux was better than their average runner (they have none this
year showing they don't 'run the best they have' like Mick Channon).
-
The obvious exception in the 2006 result is Holy Roman Emporer down in
15th place and the one who developed from the race to be a true Group 1
performer. His trainer put his failure down to lack of mental maturity.
Which brings us to this year's race and a very similar set-up. The best
of the British trained runners seem a similar group to last year's and
probably more at the good, precocious, 2yo end than the 'real thing' Group
1 types. Aiden O'Brien runs three and the best of them is likely to be
the 'real thing'. But, and a big one, his record with representatives in
the race shows a clear change between 1998-2002 and in the later years.
In the earlier period he won the race 4 times in 6 years and that with
Rock Of Gibraltar only managing a hampered 6th. Since 2003 he hasn't had
a runner placed and Statue Of Liberty's 2002 win was his only win at the
meeting in 2002-6 with a 2yo.
-
The Coolmore record overall doesn't seem to be that bad which suggests
that perhaps they have changed there approach? Perhaps Statue Of Liberty
gives a clue. He was an expensive yearling by Storm Cat and won a 5f maiden
and the Coventry and nothing afterwards. A record like that of a useful,
precocious 2yo who has been trained like one. His unplaced runners in the
race since 2003, leaving aside the moderate Newton & second string
Amigoni, have been 10f Group 1 winner Oratorio, 7f Group 1 winner Holy
Roman Emporer and 8f Group 1 placed Marcus Andronicus. A less precocious
and more development group and the ones from their races still competing
well at the highest level later and as 3yos (we obviously don't know what
sort of 3yo Holy Roman Emporer would have made).
-
Mr O'Brien runs three this year and it's likely that at least two of them
are better types but will they be ready enough to win a tough race like
this off the preparations the trainer now uses? Henrythenavigator
is presumably the 'first string' although it's most unlikely they have
been tested fully and one of the other pair may well be more 'knowing'.
He has a 7f+ development pedigree and one which says he ought to be around
competing at Group 1 level at 8-10f as a 3yo. But, he has only won a 7f
maiden at a lesser course in a slowish time. Holy Roman Emporer &
Oratorio couldn't win STO off 6f maiden wins.
-
His other two runners have both had two runs and in what looks an open
year the best of these is likely to be competitive for the places. Greek
Mythology placed in what seemed a lesser quality renewal of the 6f Newbury
maiden in late May before winning a 7f maiden in Ireland in a slowish time.
He was a smaller type and didn't look really high class at Newbury and
off a 7f win would probably need this to be more of a stamina test than
a fast 6f type of race. South Dakota
has had a different preparation and more like the pre-2003 type. He made
a winning debut over 5f on May 3rd and then was just beaten in a 6f Conditions
race by Pencil Hill (on debutat
33/1). The preparation is more in line with a Coventry winner but the race
he ran in second time suggests he is probably not a better one.
-
The other Irish runner with Pencil Hill has a low class background and
has already outrun his 'cheap' background and another positive for Acclamation.
He followed up the 6f debut win (at 33/1 from previous winners) by dropping
back to 5f to win a Listed event (at 12/1). His overall profile suggests
he is a similar type to the best of the precocious British trained runners
and could compete for the win in an average edition of the race but not
if there is a really classy type to be revealed (such as Three Valleys
in 2003).
-
The following table gives the full 'Class Ladder', with the usual note
that runners that have not been seen at the course have a rating based
on their overall background alone.
| Class Level |
Coventry Stakes |
| 101+ |
|
| 96-100 |
Henrythenavigator (99?) |
| 91-95 |
|
| 86-90 |
Yem Kinn (86) |
| 81-85 |
Luck Money (84)
Bob's Surprise (83), Pencil Hill (83?)
Declaration Of War (82), Greek Mythology (82) |
| 76-80 |
Swiss Franc (79)
Mount Pleasure (78)
Burnwynd Boy (77)
Cee Bargara* (76), Aaim To Storm (76) |
| 71-75 |
South Dakota (75?)
Dubai Dynamo (74), Ruff Diamond (74) |
| 66-70 |
Coasting (70), Ernie Owl (70?)
Lindoro (69)
Atheer Dubai (67) |
| 61-65 |
Bere Davis (64) |
-
Which has a similar look to 2006 when Holy Roman Emporer was clear at the
top of the Class Ladder and proved the best horse but couldn't win the
race. Henrythenavigator has a reputation as being good and has a profile
which says he will still be around at Group 1 level this time next year.
The alternatives are Pencil Hill who is not easy to rate but the background
suggests a placed run at best. The alternatives are the best of the British
runners - Yem Kinn, Luck
Money, Bob's Surprise and
Declaration
Of War. If we applied the 'Where will they be a year from now?' test
none seem likely to be competing to win Group 1 races at the meeting. Remember,
for example, that if you could have foreseen the future the British raced
runners the result pretty much followed it in ability spread. (Foreseeing
HRE's future at stud as a 3yo would have been impossible).
-
Yem Kinn won a moderately run 5f race on debut and the performance of those
behind have suggested a good debut performance and the trainer has a good
record at the meeting. He looked capable of competing in this class on
physical set-up. Luck Money was very fit and ready for his debut win and
looked to have a slightly nervous attitude. He probably has less scope
to improve than Yem Kinn from what he did first time and there's a hint
he might not be the most consistent type. If he tries to front run away
from this field, as he did on debut, he should get run down later in the
race. Declaration Of War is not supposed to be as good as Orientalist Art
(whom Luck Money beat FTO) but he has impressed with his no-nonsense professionalism
and strong finishes in his two wins and ought to place here although there
is probably something with a bit more class.
-
Barry Hills has only run three in the race in the last 5 years with a win
for Red Clubs (shown an ability to quicken) and two unplaced runs by Surbiton
and Captain Marvelous. The last two both improved to win at Listed or Group
Class and suggests he chooses his runners in the race well. Bob's Surprise
made his debut at a typical time, and in a typical race, for the trainer
to introduce his Coventry type and was one of a few this season to show
an ability to quicken. He wasn't going away from particularly strong opposition
and despite his size he lacks some build to really convince as top class
but would be one to follow even if unplaced here.
-
In summary, leaving aside the Irish runners for one moment the best of
the British runners seem to be the top end of the 'useful & precocious'
ability range and Yem Kinn & Bob's Surprise seem likely to be the best
value. Declaration Of War a good each-way prospect staying on late. Pencil
Hill is an unknown to some extent but doesn't particularly appeal as being
better than what we have seen in Britain. On recent record the O'Brien
runners wouldn't have the preparation to win a tough and competitive edition
of the race unless they are naturals and very useful. Henrythenavigator
might be that good but the price would have to be realistic and factor
in the lack of 6f precociousness and racing experience to make him seem
a good bet. (Oh, and Cee Bargara has an asterisk next to his name because
when the ratings are being produced a runner often niggles away as being
underestimated and he was that one. Coasting ought to niggle away but doesn't.)
-
The Windsor Castle Stakes is a Listed level race and below the Group
level of the other five juvenile races at the Royal meeting. The males
(Norfolk Stakes) and the fillies (Queen Mary Stakes) have their own '5f
Championship' races and the Windsor Castle is usually a lower class event
filled mainly with future handicappers. The Class Ladder for the
2007 edition is below.
| Class Level |
Windsor Castle Stakes |
| 91-95 |
|
| 86-90 |
|
| 81-85 |
Achilles Of Troy (83)
|
| 76-80 |
Hatta Fort (79)
Drawnfromthepast (76) |
| 71-75 |
Befortyfour (74)
Fat Boy (73)
Freds Lad (72, Pen 4lbs), Vhujon (72)
Dark Angel (71), Western Art (71) |
| 66-70 |
Paveroc (70), Party In The Park (70)
Enodoc (69)
Major Eazy (67)
Sudden Impact (66, receives 5lbs) |
| 61-65 |
Dream Eater (65)
?Kingsgate Native (64)
Magical Speedfit (62)
Gasmanfightsback (60) |
| Below 60 |
Little Pete (57)
Mister Fips (52) |
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Now, watching on the TV is often a poor second to actually seeing the horses
live. However, if you had told B2yoR after Achilles Of Troy had thrashed
what looked at least an average field at Newmarket on debut that he would
be beaten next time and be in this race and not the Norfolk or Coventry
it would have been a surprise. He looked so big and yet such a good mover
over the Newmarket rolling ground that he looked to be the 'real thing'.
The performances of those behind have tended to confirm he wasn't running
away from a great deal but the impression he left is still there. He is
one of the horses it will be most interesting for B2yoR to see on Tuesday.
Anyway, unlike the O'Brien runners in the Coventry we already know this
one can do it and is still probably the best option for a higher class
victor (as with Holborn in 2003 for example).
-
Hatta Fort made his debut in the
same Leicester race as Western Art
and finished behind him but looked a much better prospect to develop having
been too immature and wound up on debut. He was still not mentally the
finished article at Windsor but won a strong Novice comfortably and leaving
the impression he was far from hard pressed. He seems best of the British
trained runners along with Drawnfromthepast
who gave one of the few wide margin wins we have seen this season at Brighton
(another one of those 'hints' of better types) and wasn't much out of third
gear.
-
Just behind that pair is a pack of useful 2yos but not obviously with the
class to step to the front of the race. Fat Boy needs to prove himself
after a poor run last time and his debut race form looks pretty weak now.
We have seen all of what Freds Lad can do and with his penalty he shouldn't
be up to the task. Vhujon gave such a strong frontrunning performance on
debut on firm ground it is difficult to believe that he has much improvement
left to show and easier ground would limit his effectiveness. The most
interesting of that pack is possibly Befortyfour
because the trainer has so few runners at the meeting and a good record
with those he does. He was presumably supposed to win on debut having been
sent up to Ripon and supported in the market to favourite. He may have
been somewhat compromised by running hard early on to get to the rail and
press the leader and been softened up for picking off by Roker Park. Either
that or Roker Park is pretty useful which seems unlikely. Probably an interesting
each-way type.
-
At Thirsk they run the first open maiden of the season in the North
and a big field this year with no divisions. The early position of the
race in the season has lead to it having an interesting history. The majority
of the field tend to be slow and limited and later winners from the race
above seller/claimer level rare. Indeed, without Mark Johnston running
Maktoum owned 2yos in the race (he runs Parliamentary
here) they would be close to non-existent. The - Result
- of last year's race show the second and third managing to win at open
level and the 4th and 5th at lower level. For those who wish for greater
detail about the type of race it tends to be and the trainers who target
it please see last year's Profile.
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