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A good question would be what has the first three 2yo races at Ascot on
the Tuesday & Wednesday taught us? The Irish Form seems to be a little
above the British average with a 1st & 4th in the Coventry and a 1st
& 3rd in the Queen Mary. The form from the Listed races run so far has
looked below the level required with The Marygate/Hilary Needler fillies
not competing well and the 1st & 2nd from the National Stakes both
unplaced in the Queen Mary. The leading horses from the 6f Woodcote have
managed a 5th in the Coventry as a peak. A useful reminder that the best
form is often elsewhere in early season and those Listed races 'precociousness
chanpionships'. The British trained placed runners so far have previously
run in Novice events at Catterick, Brighton & Windsor, an important
Newmarket maiden and in one case - Kingsgate Native - hadn't run at all
prior to Ascot.
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First season sire Acclamation has a test to see how his precocious winners
fare as the season develops. The results from the three races so far suggest
they might not quite make the Group race grade. Cee Bargara was an honourable
6th in the Coventry with a slightly bigger and heavier version of him -
Pencil Hill - was a little ahead in fourth. Dark Angel was only 11th in
the Windsor Castle and the Hannon fillies Cake (5th) & Sweepstake (19th)
unplaced in the Queen Mary. Oasis Dream of the freshmen sires has come
closest to a winer with Starlit Sands. Elnadim isn't very fashionable but
has given us Queen Mary winner Elletelle to follow up two of the best British
2yos of last season with Caldra and Wi Dud.
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Amongst the trainers Jamie Osborne seems to have got his 2yos in top form
for the meeting. Jeremy Noseda has again shown his knowledge of his horses
by bringing Francesca D'Gorgio back from a laughably inept debut to a 20/1
fourth in the Queen Mary. A good sign for Baffled's chances in the Albany
on Friday. Peter Chapple-Hyam hasn't had a good start with unplaced runs
for Declaration Of War (a little disappointing given he beat Mount Pleasure
& Cee Bargara at Epsom) and Polar Circle (as expected). Which brings
us to the main 5f race at the meeting for the males with, the Group 2 Norfolk
Stakes. Here is the Class Ladder :-
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The Irish form is represented by Aiden O'Brien's Warsaw who now ties into
the British form via both of his runs. He won a 6f maiden on debut from
Irish Jig who came over to run in the Listed Woodcote Stakes and was punted
down to favourite. but never got into the race from a wide draw. He made
a little progress to finish 8th from 10th at halfway but made less ground
than Cee Bargara. He won a Listed event in Ireland over the weekend. On
his second outing he dropped back to 5f to win a Listed race from filly
The Loan Express (3rd in the Queen Mary yesterday). However, reading that
form is made more difficult because Mick Channon's Silver Guest was in
third just over 2 lengths behind Warsaw. He went on to finish just behind
Declaration Of War (on debut) next time and clear of some disappointments
who have stunk the place out at shorter odds in various races since. In
short a sound profile and givent he results so far the Irish angle has
to be respected. But, there are two possible better prospects.
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Winker Watson won the infamous early 5f Newbury maiden comfortably but
the performance of those behind subsequently has shown he wasn't beating
too much. However, he looked a very well grown and mature 2yo and one that
could be relied on to improve from that effort. His trainer has always
been very positive about him and it is a good sign he has always targeted
this race with him. Spirit Of Sharjah is the other Listed race winners
and had to achieve even less than the others so far to win a weak affair
at Goodwood. On his debut he showed a notable ability to quicken but. like
Winker Watson, was going away from ordinary types (the runner-up was well
beaten in the Windsor Castle). He appeals as having less scope to improve
than Winker Watson from what we have already seen although presents a good
opponent.
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Acclamation has two more runners with Bespoke Boy (presumably chosen by
Dettori over Noseda's Strike The Deal) and Cracking. They both ran int
he 6f Woodcote and drop back to 5f. Bespoke Boy showed good all round pace
and after being hampered as Baytown Blaze hung off the bend took off to
a clear lead and only got caught as he faded late on. The drop to 5f looks
a good option but on profile he comes up short of the best. Cracking looks
like a typical precocious type of his sire who isn't going to develop notable
from now on.
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Assuming that Drawnfromthepast and Dream Eater don't run the level of the
Windsor Castle form may be tested by Kingsgate Native who finished 2nd
on debut. The overall level of that form doesn't look that strong (initially
given an estimate in the mid-70s) and the profile assumes he runs to a
similar level here. The time for the Windsor Castle was fast, as were all
races on the day, but it should be noted that there was a very strong tailwind
up the course on Tuesday. That had moved around to being a crosswind and
perhaps a very mild headwind on Wednesday for the Queen Mary. The fast
times probably also owe something to the course redevelopment. At two places
on the sprint course the track is very shallow in depth as it passes over
a road bridge and then a pedestrian tunnel - there's a furlong and more
of no 'water table' and the rest of the track has been completely regraded
seems to drain very quickly.
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