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Back to the routine after Royal Ascot and the performances at that meeting
will be considered over the coming days however. Behind the headlines of
those races were some interesting items from unexpected sources. Trainer
George Moore hasn't had a 2yo
winner since 2004 and had failed to convert various bits of promise into
wins since. He gave us a 'London Bus' moment last week with a debut winner
in a seller followed up with Runswick Bay finally getting a win up to 7f.
After covering Alan Swinbank's
development approach with 2yos he goes and has his first ever juvenile
FTO success at Pontefract yesterday with Salinger's Star. Two points to
note from that are that the race looked like Loch Jipp's debut at the course
in early season with a bigger, rangy filly getting home form smaller types
(size more than often matters a lot). The other is to note that she was
first season sire Catcher
In The Rye's fifth winner from just 8 runners.
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To the day's races, Wolverhampton is covered above and the other two above
seller level present very different shapes. The Musselburgh race
looks an ideal opportunity for Mazzanti to get his win. He has run two
solid race and moved clear of the field at Carlisle into the final furlong
before being caught late by a strong finish from a newcomer. He beat Firewalker
that day and although Bryan Smart has his 2yos in top form there is no
obvious reason why she should beat the colt today. Which means that the
only real opposition if Mazzanti performs as he has ought to come from
Maracana Boy. His form to date isn't good enough but there are circumstantial
reasons to believe he is better than he has shown. The earliest debuts
for Michael Dods are usually competitive 2yos and his 6th place as the
first 2yo runner of 2007 for the trainer didn't seem to fit that. However,
he received support in the market and got involved in a pace race (as often
happens at this flat track) and faded late. The horse he duelled with and
ran a similar race to was Guertino and he has shown good form since and
won last week. After a break Maracana Boy went to Chester for a Class 2
maiden and again was supported. He also pressed the pace again and hung
right and faded to 4th having been 2nd a furlong out behind the solid winner.
In summary, he's better than he's shown and would be value if Mazzanti
got too short (say 5/4 or less) but on profile is a little short of that
one's standard (but only by 4-5 points).
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By comparison the Windsor Auction race is a 'Hall Of Mirrors' with
nothing very solid and a low level required to win. The likelihood of easier
going and the field either going far side or splitting across the course
just adds to the uncertainty. In short, if you listen carfully you can
hear it ticking and a double figure SP winner wouldn't be surprising. It's
a race where if you work a little you can convince yourself a range of
runners can step forward enough from what they have shown to compete. For
example, one of the Hannon pair (Farthermost & Synge Street) must be
capable of some form of 'leap forward' from their Goodwood runs but which
one is first string?
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In what is likely to be an open market L'Art
Du Silence seems likely to be favourite but not to set strong standard.
Relative Order was given a
'quiet ride' on his debut here in a much better race and kept on well late
on and appeals as the best alternative and most likely to improve enough
to win. Of the longer shots it will be interesting to see what price Bilbao
is. On debut at Bath, in a race with a good pace, he appeared to be making
an interesting mid race move but then hung violently right (off the TV
picture) and finished on the stands' rail. It will be interesting to see
him in Paddock Review to see whether he has the wherewithal to be the surprise
winner. Of the others the newcomer Deckguard
ssems the best prospect although his trainer gets only rare debut winners
after early season. He would need to be above average (say capable of a
67+ B2yoR estimate in the season) to win.
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In summary, a very trappy race but Relative Order makes most appeal with
Bilbao and Deckguard interesting each-way alternatives in a race which
isn't short of them (until you can see them all together in the pre-parade
ring).
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