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So what happened to Montaquila
at Ayr then? A solid debut but then pootling home with some minor talents
(who have all run since and been beaten) at Ayr STO. He turns up at Newcastle
yesterday and he's a different horse, perfect balance in suspension and
storming home like Masta Plasta did there for the same connections in 2005.
He pulled clear with Eternal Luck and they both looked horses who can compete
well at higher level. Mahusay may have met some trouble but looked the
small and neat end of Noverre's offspring and not one to obviously follow.
Of more interest on the day was probably Mr Cumani's other runner - Craggy
Cat - who looked a more taking type and did enough late on to get third
to belive he's got something.
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Friday's racing gives us two fascinating contests with the Folkestone contest
having a number of angles which are covered above. The Newmarket race is
for Maiden Fillies and none has raced before. It has a patchy history and
until 2004 used to bring a small field and some uncompetitive races. THe
last two years have been bigger fields and the 2005 field was a weak one
with only one later winner (who finished second without eyecatching). The
- Result - for
last year shows a very different affair Oaks winners Light Shift not having
quite enough pace to deal with the smaller, readier and speedier Wid (a
16/ debut winner for John Dunlop & Hamdan Al Maktoum - the same stories
come round each year but it a different order). Behind that were Yaqeen
who didn't run again but has run solidly in a Classic this year and then
three fillies who won later, two at Listed level and the other finished
fourth in a Listed race. Those behind didn't win. A good example of how
many 2yo races finish in ability order, slightly modified by trainer methods
and distance aptitiude, in spite of the supposed difficulties in picking
juveniles winners in these type of events (which is why Paddock Review
can be so useful of course). looking for eyecatchers out the back wouldn't
have been worth it, ability tends to show more conspicuosly.
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This year's edition looks to be closer to 2006 version with some depth
to the profile and more quality than 2005. A shortlist of possible winners
would start off with Crystany &
Laureldean Dream who both
run for trainers who prepare their 2yos well for debut. Looking at Henry
Cecil's record in the last two years before this race seems to suggest
he takes thing a little easier before debut than in the past. His STO winner
in 2007 was in the ruck on debut as well. It is possible this less prepared
debut is only in earlier season and we should now be getting to the stage
where his newcomers are ready to win if good enough. Crystany would already
have run at Leicester but for heavy ground and the preview for that day
said :- "Crystany cost an awful lot of money (€520,000) which you
suspect doesn't necessarily have a great deal to do with her physical ability.
She has such a strong pedigree and is from a family that the fillies' wont
become available that often that she could cost that much as a breeding
prospect. If she's not that good Mr Cecil might run her early to ensure
he gets a '1' of some sort next to her name so she can go to stud a winner.
But there are lots of duff 3yo maidens for fillies so perhaps if she is
starting this early she might be an ok runner. If so she would compete
well FTO".
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Peter Chapple-Hyam hasn't had a debut worse placed than fourth so far with3
wins and two seconds from 8. Laureldean Dream is well enough related to
be useful but at $300,000 she wasn't expensive being half sister to Ad
Valorem etc. and the trainer has suggested she's on the small side so perhaps
not one of his best debuts.
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Michael Stoute hasn't had a 2yo winner yet and runs Visit
for major owner breeder Khalid Abdulla. Mr Stoute doesn't have strong debuts
in earlier season and of 43 FTO winners in the last 5 years only 9 have
been before the end of July and most by useful horses you would be familar
with. He has a better record in September and October overall. Only two
of his twelve debut winners at the Newmarket courses have been before late
August and the last one in June was in this race. But that was by Russian
Rhythm in a weaker, small field, race which counts as an exceptional case.
So Visit is going to have to be pretty good to win here. John Gosden is
a similar debut trainer but does get earlier debut wins for Princess Haya
but Town And Gown didn't look like a better types at the sales.
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Which means that the best Alternatives to the front two on the shortlist
are from relatively expensive purchases for middle ranking stables. Eoghan
O'Neill's approach to debuts was covered at length in the June
17th Preview and the debuts he has had since that date have not been
strong (with the exception of 'eyecatcher' Red Cauldron who might have
been going past 'trees' in the Thirsk straight of course). He either has
nothing better or a mini-batch of better types might be on the way. His
record at this course is good with 5 debuts in the last two years producing
two seconds, a fourth and 6th (for STO winner Iron Fist). Ceka
Dancer has a good 2yo pedigree and ought to be a competitive debut.
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Clive Cox's 'Show Or Nothing' approach to debuts has been covered here
before nad he has had a recent debut win (in the race Crystany ducked)
and third (Amylee) in fillies' races he has won FTO in the last two seasons.
The market doesn't tend to be a great help but on profile Don't
Forget Faith is a similar type. Of the others none run for trainers
who get regular debut winners but Michael Bell (Honky Tonk Sally) and Chris
Wall (Luminous Gold and we are in his period for starting off a better
fily) do get odd ones with useful types.
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In summary a good edition of the race and with some solid potential for
the future without looking as good as 2006. Crystany appeals as the most
likely winner from the usual suspects and Ceka Dancer & Honky Tonk
Sally of interest from the next rank.
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