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An interesting maiden at Windsor on Monday with three colts with
solid form in opposition and a set-up which should mean we are spared the
kind of 50/1 result that the Sunday Ayr maiden saw. Wolgan
Valley has missed previous engagements because of easy ground and steps
up to 6f here. He hasn't been paddock reviewed but is likely to be moderate
value given the connections. Latin
Scholar got a good sales report but on debut at Goodwood seemed to
have gone backwards a bit. Although very fit and ready he hadn't muscled
up well and got left behind after setting a moderate pace as the race quickened.
On a stiffer track at Bath last time he made his ground on the leading
pair in the last half furlong and looked a 'reacher' rather than a 'quickener'
and a flat 6f perhaps not his best move. He may be the type that needs
a more staying test to show his best. Which means that Red
Alert Day may be the best option although he has a low draw and may
have to race midfield if the field stay stands' side.
-
The Hannon newcomers are dealt with above and the others of strong interest
are Oasis Wind & Sharp
Nephew. The first is by the first season sire Oasis Dream who has had
a slower start to his career than people expected. He was a late season
developer himself as a juvenile and fooled John Gosden into trying him
over 7f before being dropped back to 6f for his maiden and Group 1 successes.
It may well be that the second half of the season will see a solid improvement
in his record. At the sales Oasis Wind was below average size (many of
the sire's yearlings were) but very heavily built and just shifting his
weight adequately at that age. He had the potential to improve and seemed
likely to be an average maiden winner type at 2yo. His trainer seems to
gets wins or places with his competitive 2yos these days on debut but this
is a strong field and more one to assess for the future.
-
Bryan Meehan is a much more 'easy intro' trainer and his record with 6f
debuts at the course in the last five seasons is 1-30 with two places.
The one win was by older Grade 1 winner Buy The Sport and the competitive
second by Rebuttal who later placed in the Group 1 Middle Park at 2yo.
Only one of the other 28 placed and that in a weak race. Sharp Nephew is
going to have to be special to show up here although he represents the
agent and owners who have given us Araafa & Authorised in the last
two years and was very expensive for his pedigree so that might not be
that far-fetched.
-
On Tuesday the Nursery races finally get under way with a 6f
event at Pontefract. The following tables summarises the Official Ratings,
the B2yoR ratings and the differences.
| Horse |
Official Rating
|
B2yoR Estimate(s) |
Difference |
Sales Price |
| Rubirosa |
83 |
54 |
-29 |
25,000gns |
| Stage Acclaim |
83 |
51+ |
-32 |
€24,000 |
| Mahusay |
82 |
46 |
-36 |
OB |
| Bahama Baileys |
81 |
58 |
-24 |
22,000gns |
| Runswick Bay |
79 |
49 |
-30 |
21,000gns |
| Barraland |
79 |
58 |
-21 |
€105,000 |
| Silver Wind |
77 |
53 |
-24 |
22,000gns |
| Lady Benjamin |
68 |
44 |
-24 |
16,000gns |
| Berrymead |
65 |
38 |
-27 |
3,000gns |
| Willyn |
63 |
34 |
-29 |
2,200gns |
| Eboracum Dream |
60 (58) |
38 (18-0) |
-22? |
TB |
| Zaplamation |
60 (56) |
31 |
-29 |
€38,000 |
| Little Finch |
60 (48) |
28 |
-32 |
1,000gns |
-
The race is a Class 4 which allows horses rated up to 85 to compete. The
bottom three horses are carrying the weight as if they were rated 60 although
their Official marks, in brackets are lower. Lady Benjamin is marked in
yellow as on the 'Break Point' between the better physical types and open
maiden class horses and the maidens and seller winners below. Unless they
have notable excuses for their performances or reason to expect great improvement
those below the break will find this type of event too strong. Those above
the line are in the right fit of race but are well or poorly treated on
what ther have actually achieved. It is interesting to note that the sales
prices show a reasonable fit to this split with Barraland a looking the
horse 'best in' and with physical scope to compete off higher than a 79
Official Rating. Of those below the line Zaplamation has shown hints in
better races that he has more ability than a 56 rater and his sales price
suggests he looked a bit better than that as a yearling. However, his last
run, behind Lady Benjamin, was very tame.
-
The question mark next to the difference rating for Eboracum Dream goes
right to the crux of the problem for a handicapper trying to get 2yos onto
a handicap mark after three runs. Her B2yoR estimate of 38 comes from her
midfield debut behind Janina at Haydock where she made some progress late
and with mild promise for 6f+. Her next two races have got worse and she
runs in blinkers on her Nursery debut. It may be that she's got ability
but wont show it but Tim Easterby runners rarely show much improvement
if the early runs haven't shown real ability. If we go back to that debut
race she finihsed just in front of Mama Leo who also runs on Tuesday -
in the seller at Lingfield. Just ahead of her was Eastern Romance who has
struggled in maiden races since but placed in the Hilary Needler by plugging
on past faders. The second from the race - Cayman Fox - was a typically
highly tuned runner for James Moffatt in early season whose form regresses
and hasn't won. The third was a small filly who won STO but struggled in
better races.
-
A middling pace and the fillies spread across much of the width of the
track mixed the abilities up in that race. Crucially, it didn't spread
them out 'lengthwise' enough to truly reflect their abilities. Eboracum
Dream was too close to Janina, even to Jennifers Joy, to truly reflect
the difference in their abilities. But, if you are the official handicapper
what are you to do? You have to take the 'length' of result that is offered
to you literally and stick it somewhere on the absolute scale. If you stick
it where Eboracum Dream really ought to be then Janina is way too low and
a number of other fillies well treated in handicaps. So the handicapper
does the reverse and sticks Janina of something her believes a filly of
her profile ought to be and rates the other fillies against her at something
like 3 points per length. He assumed Janina was a mid 80s filly and gets
Eboracum Dream around 58. Looking at the result at Haydock with hindsight
Janina won comfortably and didn't achieve anything like an 80s performance
but many of the fillies behind her are now over-rated. The B2yoR estimate
assumed Janina ran into the 70s by Official levels but even that seems
to high on what the likes of Mama Leo and Eboracum Dream have achieved.
If she really can run to better than 38 on B2yoR figures she would have
some chance to place here but that seems very unlikely. Which is a good
reason why effective paddock review can be so useful - if you had a report
from someone you trusted about what physical type Eboracum Dream was the
above discussions could be mostly sidestepped.
-
In summary - Rubirosa looks over-rated on what he has achived in two slowish
races and his trainer tends to buy small and nat types who don't progress
much at 2yo. Stage Acclaim looks a little high but has some scope to improve
and could compete well enough of a 75-78 rating in an average race, well
drawn and some chance in this race from a good draw.. Mahusay achieved
little on debut picking off two stalled runners on heavy going and the
82 rating much too high for what he has done. He was backed like he was
a good horse next time but got blocked making a run and eased when switched
out after his saddle slipped. He has looked a typically small Noverre type
which can produce a good one - Aahayson would be the best example having
son a handicap off 100+ at 3yo which on physical type looked faintly ludicrous.
Still unproven but not well treated on 82 on performance to date. Bahama
Baileys just a little high and a late 70s type who the trainer ought to
find a nursery for through persistence. Runswick Bay too high and with
no obvious scope to improve. Barraland on 79 looks very usable and he ought
to be able to compete on 80+ on physical type. A leading chance in this
race but tempered by his being drawn on the hard shoulder of the M62 in
the 13 box. Still ought to compete for the win but needs the race to go
his way in pace and track position terms. Silver Wind finally came good
after a break and blinkers and perhaps another early season runner for
David Evans (like Bazguy) who actually needed time to develop. 77 looks
fair enough on physical type and should go well. Lady Benjamin more a 4th-6th
placer and there is often a non-linear link between rating and competitiveness.
She proabably isn't a 'Clas 4' type and may find the higher class colts
going to quick. The others look uncompetitive on their marks and in this
level of Nursery unless there is some reason to believe they can do better.
Interesting to check what Eboracum Dream and Zaplamation can do.
-
The Newmarket July Meeting takes place from Wdnesday to Friday this
week and the return of high class juvenile races and Group races. A brief
overview of the races :-
-
Wednesday :-
-
2:35, Cherry Hinton Stakes (6f Group 2 for fillies). Won last year
by Sander Camillo (Albany Stakes winner at Royal Ascot with Queen Mary
Stakes victress Gilded (whose sales price keeps going up without running)
in third). 12 of the 18 entries ran at Ascot including Queen Mary winner
Elletelle (steps to 6f and 3lb penalty. Mark Prescott said she beat Starli
Sands with a 'staying performance'.). Youresothrilling the leading placed
runner from the Albany entered and of particular interest to see how Francesca
D'Gorgio & Janina can improve form their Ascot runs. Entries from fillies
not previously seen in Listed+ races do not look strong.
-
3:45, 7f maiden for males with a strong reputation but the last high class
winner was Dubai Destination in 2000 although the field usually produces
a number of maiden winners with the old one useful.
-
Thursday :-
-
2:00, July Stakes (6f Group2 for colts & geldings). Intended
target for Winker Watson stepping to 6f and Coventry Stakes runner-up Swiss
Franc. Strong supporting set of entries from Ascot runners and newcomers
(including River Proud who looked this class on debut along with Bigfanothat,
Captain Royale and Gaspar Van Vittel).
-
3:45, 6f Novice, often produces a strong field and a better class winner.
The last four have all run in Group races subsequently with Hamoody a Group
2 winner last year and the other 3 all making the first 4 at Group 2 level.
-
Friday :-
-
2:00, Superlative Stakes (7f Group 2). A Listed race until 2002
and has now gone up to Group 2 level with Dubawi and Horatio Nelson recent
winners. Entires include Declaration Of War and two from Aidan O'Brien
although neither look that strong. A good range of potential improvers
with Feared In Flight representing the Chesham race and recent Newcastle
winner Montaquila and interesting improver.
-
3:45, 6f Maiden fillies. A mixed record with no later Group winner successful
since Gossamer in 2000. As with the 7f maiden the winner is usually useful
but the race not always as strong as the 'hype' would suggest.
-
4:20, 7f Nursery at Class 2. Horses with ratings in excess of 100 are eligible
and the last three winners have all proved up to Group class at some point
in their careers. 35 entires with Berbice the highest rated on B2yoR estimates.
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