British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Preview - May 1st 
Races :-
  • 46: Folkestone 2:20, 5f Auction (6)
  • 47: Redcar 2:30, 5f Auction (5)
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      May 1st Summary : 
     
    • Two Auction races today with the runners weighted in different bands according to their sales price. The FTO P&L Qualifiers box below details a range of newcomers in both races who run for reliable trainers. In that context it is probably best to consider those with form briefly here. 
    • At Folkestone the colt Multi Tasker comes out just on top of the profile but at a low level. He's interesting in that he was declared for the Brocklesby (apprentice William Buick booked) along with his trainer's winner of the season Bad Beat. He didn't run there because of the good-to-soft ground and has also missed an engagement on Lingfield's AW course having arrived the track. Around those he has run twice at Kempton and hasn't been able to show the best he can do.
    • First time out he was placed well enough in 4th behind a modest pace but didn't pick up in the straight and it that the jockey took it easy and it's possible he had an equipment problem. Next time he got involved in a tussle for the lead with two others and he was widest of the three on the sharp right hand turn. He did best of those three leaders and was still in second past the furlong pole before, understandable, fading. Those in front looked a reasonable group with the placed horses both placing again yesterday. He finished quite close to Hay Fever who was on debut and reopposes but he got involved in the race fully while that one was floundering around at the back. Anyway, he's a bit better than he has shown and if he runs (GS ground permitting) this is his final chance to show us he has something a bit more to give.
    • Mazzola finished third at Bath two days ago and was strikingly fit for that debut run. He was bred by Channon's stud and ran in the trainer's colours. A prospective owner seemed to be shown around him in the unsaddling enclosure so perhaps he'll run in new colours. Anyway, he was a fair size, if a bit gawky and weak around the neck and the level of form he showed was low. He should improve here but comes out lower in the profile and not obvious winner material.
    • Rich Red ran as second string for Hannon FTO and never got into a solid race at Windsor. He looked a usable type at the OR68-73 level across the season and the trainer's 2yos tend to snap together STO. If he isn't being set up as a longer term 'Nursery' project which the Hannon team don;t do much of he should show most of what he can do here and probably should place.
    • The interesting newcomer is Astroleo for Mark Tompkins. The trainer hasn't had a debut winner in the five years 2003-7 and the only one he had in 2002 was with Babodana to give you an idea of the quality of the one that did win. That's a total of 1 win in 132 debuts in the last 6 years. In the last five years as many as 11 of the FTO juveniles have placed but only 3 of them proved to be winners during the season. He has an odd record in that he gets places with his early debuts suggesting he has chosen the competitive ones to run but they don't then improve and convert to winners. Astroleo is an early start for him in recent years and being chosen as the first debut suggests some natural ability but the pedigree is mixed and not obviously 5f (worth noting the prevalent Soft ground this Spring hasn't put much emphasis on pure speed in the turf racing over 5f). The booking of Jamie Spencer is bound to catch eyes but overall probably a placer at best.
    • In summary, not a strong group of experienced runners but Multi Tasker & Rich Red are of interest. The debut runs of Langs Lash & Sonhador probably more likely to be value SPs than the be-Spencered Astroleo.
    • The only runner with any worthwhile previous form at Redcar is Knavesmire and her powder puff finishing efforts are a real negative. Trainer Mel Brittain has already had a better year with 2yos than the entire 2007 season when, apparently, there were illness issues in the horses. However, unlike Caranbola & his two debut winners Knavesmire hasn't seen races out in a manner suggested she's a likely later winner. Unlike the Folkestone event this one seems much more likely to go to a ready newcomer - and there's 5 of them to peruse in the P&L box below.
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    • More filthy weather at Ascot today for the Garter Stakes and more sticky ground as there was at Newbury when Baycat made his debut. If you take Sun Ship & Skid Solo out of the final result in makes sense in line with the Profile ratings with Baycat giving Firth Of Fifth an 8lb beating (10lbs in the pre-race profile) and Grand Honour an 18lb one (12lbs in the profile and Grand Honour has shown a lack of pace for 5f before and was plugging on). Assuming Skid Solo ran disappointingly you are then left only with explaining what happened to Sun Ship.
    • To B2yoR's eyes Sun Ship is still a better long term prospect than Baycat and made the better impression again in Paddock Review. Baycat was still miles fitter and Sun Ship's heavy build means that he still wasn't fit enough. He ran out of steam in the last furlong on testing going which is always likely given his build and fitness while the fitter and sharper models (Baycat & Firth Of Fifth) kept on better. He ran below his profile rating because of that.
    • If we project forward then First Of Fifth is still a 70-74 OR type in real terms and a year from now it's a toss-up whether he's up to that. Baycast is a real 77-83 type and should be that for as long as he stays healthy because he has enough scope to stay in that place. But, neither are going to make much impression in better Listed and Group races later and the winner is in the Mount Pleasure class (2007's winner). If there is a 6f Listed winner in the field then is probably is Sun Ship who is around an 85-92 real OR rater as an older horse. Let's try digging that out next year to see how close it got. Oh, nearly forgot, Pride Of Kings not nearly as bad as the Sales Report but very wound up and wouldn't settle in the preliminaries here. Not obviously higher class but competitive in ordinary Northern maidens.
    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Two similarly close knit Auction races on the day and a range of FTO qualifiers in different categories. Each race has a runner with previous experience wobbling on the top of the profile. Each is waiting to be knocked off by a newcomer who has a bit more to them, and the readiness on debut their trainer's instil. You'd like to think the 'surprises' would come from this long list.
    • ============  FOLKESTONE
    • Langs Lash  (MG Quinlan, March to May debuts). Two uninspiring debuts from the trainer to date but two runners today and at least one should compete well. This one was a 2yo breeze-up purchase at Kempton in March. (A consistent theme following Missile Dodger & April Pride's debut wins already)
    • Sonhador (P Winkworth, Long Shots). Not time to give up on the Winkworth Project just yet despite Hatchet Man's woeful effort yesterday. He was very well prepared for the day but you knew you were probably in trouble when looking at him in Paddock Review. Just too naroow & leggy despite his 32,000gns tag. Swap his build with Every Second and keep the preparation and he would have given Missile Dodger something to do. This one got a similar sales report to Hatchet Man so let's hope he's developed a bit better to 2yo.
    • ============  REDCAR
    • Officer Mor  (KR Burke, 5-6f debuts). Topweight and giving 4lb+ all round so a dificult task. Trainer's debut record rests on his late May into June debuts do a place for this one would be a good effort and a win unlikely.
    • Able Master  (B Smart, March to May debuts), had his first runner yesterday with a better profile type at Redcar. Runners before mid-season include the competitive 2yos and many compete well FTO.
    • Skruton  (MG Quinlan, March to May debuts). See trainer note above.
    • Sloop Johnb (RA Fahey, 5f debuts). Has had a debut winner this season and a better record in late May into June like Karl Burke. This one received a negative sales report.
    • El Bobby (JR Weymes, Long Shot). Mr Weymes is an unfashionable trainer but has developed the knack of winning races on debut. No pattern has emerged so the surprise winner could come at any time in the season. A positive for an early 2yo in the sire and bottomweight.
    ~ FOLK 2:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    9 MULTI TASKER [33] - 3 22 2 19 21
    10 LANGS LASH [32] +2 1 23
    2 SONHADOR [31] -6 1 35
    1 RICH RED [30] -6 2 -13 1 -13 29
    8 MAZZOLA [29] - 1 16 1 16 35
    5 ASTROLEO [28] -2 1 26
    3 HAY FEVER [23] -3 2 16 1 16 41
    4 LUCKY PUNT [14] -3 1
    7 DEBBYS BOY [13] -1 1
    6 TIGHTROPE [4] -2 1

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    ~ RDCR 2:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    10 KNAVESMIRE [33] - 3 23 2 19 16
    12 SKRUTON [32] - 1 23
    2 ABLE MASTER [29] -8 1 29
    1 OFFICER MOR [28] -12 1 24
    4 EL BOBBY [27] -5 1 26
    9 FLAMING RUBY [24] - 1 12
    3 SLOOP JOHNB [24] -8 1 36
    7 GOWER VALENTINE [22] -3 1 30
    8 REAL DIAMOND [20] -3 1
    11 ROSABEE [18] - 2 -1 1 -1 20
    6 REEL BLUFF [10] -5 1 13
    5 LUCKY BUDDHA [8] -5 2 -23 1 -23 5

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