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What's all this, then? A 5f Conditions event at Goodwood. What happening
to the Listed 'Aubigny Stakes' with it's long history going back to 2005
when it was instigated for no discernible reason. The Listed races used
to start in early June, occasionally just in the last week of May with
the National Stakes and the Hilary Needler. 2005 saw the Marygate Stakes
added (for fillies at the York May Meeting) and Goodwood had the Aubigny
stakes. This was run in later May originally but, presumably because of
clashing with existing 5f Listed races, was moved to this early May meeting.
Perhaps it has gone for good, let's hope so.
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The number of 2yos that have run so far is just over 300 and to allow horses
than win and place in such early Listed races to get 'Black Type' entries
in Sales Catalogues (denoted 'superior' athletes) is just Wrong. The fillies
that placed in the Aubigny Stakes last year are currently competing off
OR marks in the low to mid 70s which is what they looked like last May.
But, 10 years from now unless you bother to look it up they will be there
in the catalogue in lowercase black type with the Auctioneer blathering
on about what a 'Good page' it is. The fact that a huge number of handicappers
who never got 'Black Type' appear less prominently is pretty deceptive.
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The Profile for this race has had the 'Class Level' figures added which
are on the B2yoR [Estimate] scale. These denote, with current information,
the highest rating the horses are likely to reach in the season. The two
Hannon horses at the top of the profile have not been Paddock Reviewed
but both seem likely to be up to competing in strong Listed races
in later season at least on the evidence. Smokey Storm looks a good early
season types but with this sort of race likely to be his upper limit. Imperial
Skylight looks out of his depth by some margin. The other owner bred with
links to the Channon Stable and Stud - Mazzola - wouldn't be up to Smokey
Storm's level on what he has done and shown so far.
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A bigger field for the Class 2 maiden at Chester although not the
full 16 we have had in some recent years. Barry Hills has won it for the
last three years with the useful River Kintyre winning after surviving
a pace war in a big field in 2005. Captain Marvelous (Result)
won from a midfield run in 2006 and the result shows how those with experience
packed the front half of the field. The best later winners who were on
debut - Northern Fling & Not For Me (Listed class) - got buried away
after having a high draw in one instance and blowing the good stalls position
in the other (and the jockey letting him come home quietly).
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That winner went on to success in a German Group 2 and success their and
in Italy often indicates a performer who isn't up to British Group level.
To make the point Scintillo struggled in Group races here last year prior
to going to Italy to win a Group 1. Back in high class races here in the
spring of his 3yo season and he's out of place again. Horses make races,
not the other way around and labels can be plain misleading. Having said
that Mr Hills' winner of the maiden last year was Dark
Angel who went on the British Group 1 success before being whisked
off to stud. He didn't look a proper Group 1 horse and the performance
of those behind him at 2yo so far this year haven't suggested it was good
Group form. On the sprinting side the Kingsgate Native, Fleeting Spirit,
Nahoodh, Captain Gerrard and Natagora (i.e. the Molecomb, Lowther &
Cheveley Park races) seam looked stronger and those that have run at 3yo
have gone very well. [Try comparing that to the Strike The Deal & Tajdeef
efforts, although quite where Dream Eater fits is a bit puzzling.]
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Me Hills runs Senatorial here who was one of three runners in for him in
the Newmarket conditions race in mid April. The previous two winners of
this event had run there and he generally starts out superior horses at
that meeting, if he has them. Senatorial was 8/1 and second choice
on that of his three behind Ouqba. The subsequent efforts of the runners
in that race have received a lot of coverage here but in general in hasn't
proved as strong a race as it might have seemed at the time. You can argue
that the third (Ouqba beaten by Finjaan since), fourth (beaten by Smokey
Storm who runs at Goodwood) & 6th (beaten by Waffle since) ran into
useful horses and have advanced the Newmarket form's credibility. As ever
a middle line is probably a good call. The Newmarket race was ok but not
high quality form and the runners aren't going to iron out maiden fields.
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Senatorial is out in stall 8 and didn't go like a nippy speed type at Newmarket.
You get the impression he's going to need a pace duel that allows him to
make ground in the straight. However, he feels like poor value coming along
in the market given the Hills record and the 'Newmarket' form aura. Musical
Bridge achieved a lot less than looked the case at Bath FTO and didn't
look a better type and shouldn't be good enough here. The most interesting
alternatives would be Kevin Ryan's Rievaulx World and Hannon's Rebecca
De Winter. Given the stats about debut winners here the first of those
would have to be pretty good to win FTO. The filly Rebecca De Winter made
a good debut by the trainer's standards at Lingfield before tiring in the
final furlong and looks the safest alternative.
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Worth mentioning the John Quinn trained Fivefootnumberone who has
an interesting pedigree with good 2yo sprinting class on both sides. The
trainer doesn't get debut winners very often and his best 2yos tend to
make the 4-6th range and looking eyecatching. He's booked Jamie Spencer
so perhaps this is one of his better ones and should be assesed for the
future on that basis.
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