British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - May 9th 
Races :-
  • 65: Hamilton 6:05, 5f Maiden (5)
  • 66: Lingfield 2:40, 5f Maiden (5)
  • 67: Nottingham 2:00, 5.1f Maiden Fillies' (5)
  • 68: Ripon 5:55, 5f Auction (5)

  •   May 9th Summary : 
    • The Hamilton race is dealt with at some length in the FTO P&L box below. The fillies' maiden at Nottingham has been won by some above average 2yos in recent seasons including a wide margin success for later Group 2 winner Wunders Dream in 2002. The last two winners have been at 28/1 (average nursery type) and 33/1 for a draw assisted win for a below average type. She was one of two to stay stands' side and the entire field only produced a single later winner.
    • This year's race looks to have more depth and an obvious favourite in Art Princess. Yesterday saw another defeat for a runner from the Conditions race run at the Newmarket Craven meeting (trained by Barry Hills as is this filly). The fillies' maiden at the meeting was run in a slower time than that race and developed into a 2f sprint at the end of the race. In that context Art Princess ran quite well to get to second from midfield with a clear run in mid track. However, as the Conditions race has shown, going from a Newmarket race to a maiden at a lesser track isn't a easy meal ticket and not at this time of the season when a number of competent 2yos from major stables are being revealed. 
    • In short, Art Princess is going to be poor value and has to improve markedly on what she did at Newmarket to win. The trainer hasn't had a 2yo winner yet and she didn't convince as a real 5f type in Paddock Review. If she's come on well physically since Newmarket she might win well but doesn't appeal as a strong favourite. [As an aside the winner of the moderate Catterick race on Tuesday showed what sort of development runners can make from FTO to STO at times. This was him on debut (Picture) at Southwell when he looked scrawny and underpowered and, while fit, not thriving. At Catterick a month later and he'd filled out and looked a different horse - Picture.]
    • Of the opposition those that have run before include Readily & Voulezvous who both appeared to show minor promise on debut. In retrospect her 30 rating for her debut run is probably a bit high and she didn't look up to average level in paddock review. Voulezvous showed good pace and on softer ground and travelled close to best in her debut race here. She faded from still being third a furlong out and if she can finish the race off is a better prospect than Readily. But neither of those strongly appeal as likely to improve past Art Princess. As covered in the FTO box below the debut filly for Kevin Ryan - Undaunted Affair gets closest.
    • Of the other newcomers there is a first 2yo runner for John Gosden but his debut runners only tend to win if they are superior. This one has a profile as an ordinary maiden type and should need the debut to develop from. Brian Meehan gets rare debut winners and hasn't had a winner yet this year with a 2yo. He runs the expensive purchase Misty Glade who looked more of a 'pedigree' than a physical prospect buy at the sales. The trainer does get odd debut winners around this period but they tend to be Group class types if they manage it. Very unlikely Misty Glade is anywhere near that on the evidence.
    • In summary, a race where the long term view would see you trying to find an alternative to Art Princess on course because she is likely to be poor value. If the newcomers show as limited then she might be value but Kevin Ryan is still in the period where his strong debuts are included and Undaunted Affair has a solid profile to be the better end of his range.
    • A similar setup at Lingfield where Rayvin Mad tries to win 3TO. He was one of the 'failures' from the Newmarket conditions race when beaten by Waffle last time. It's probable that Waffle is pretty good but the form wasn't that strong at Leicester last time. The third (Johnmanderville) was beaten much further by newcomer Deadly Encounter this week for example. Fortunately for Rayvin Mad he only cost 20,000gns as a yearling so gets into a limited quality auction race as joint topweight. He's looked small and lacked a strong finish in his two runs so backing him, again at likely compressed odds, is going to be a fraught business as he soldiers home in the last furlong.
    • Those that have run don't look strong and it's time Tim Easterby showed us his 'STO winner' and Mullglen showed just enough FTO to believe he will improve markedly here. The best of the newcomers looks to be a choice between Ryan's Coleorton Choice and Bryan Smart's Able Master as detailed below.
    • In short, similar to Nottingham in a somewhat suspect type with 'Newmarket Form' attached likely to be a shortish favourite and opposable with the right material. That looks to rest with the newcomers but an each-way punt on Mullglen should be interesting.
    • At Lingfield it is the turf course rather than the AW. As a reminder there is a 'Magic Carpet' next to the rail in the last two furlongs which is especially pronounced on firmer going. If you see a horse switched to race centre track to make it's challenge you can lay it in running all you like. Horses can make ground together up that rail like racing cyclists in a pursuit formation (and pull wide off the front and you disappear to the back like those riders do). If a horse manages to make some ground up the centre then you can mark it up.
    • As the Virtual Paddock shows most of those with previous runs have been paddock reviewed but none were that likeable and none on the 'To Follow' list. Proper Tool was seen as of minor interest but likely to need development runs. Sonhador looked ready to compete at Folkestone on debut where he was a mild third and looked an OR 60s type. There seemed to be some expectation of better from Striding Edge at Windsor but he didn't show much in the race and looked a limited physical type.
    • Which means the real interest for the race is in the newcomers and there are a couple of good ones with Jeremy Noseda's Mythical Border & Jamie Osborne's Mean Mr Mustard. The contrasting records of the trainers is a good point to cover the 'Update Tables' at the top of the individuals season pages for each trainer (and sire). A number of trainers appear ahead of schedule despite the cold spring (Andrew Balding has started quicker than usual for example) and this is Noseda's second runner when didn't have a runner until May 19th last year. When he runs 2yos before his normal start period these days it usually means they are pretty good and can compete well FTO. His first runner this year won comfortably when Waffle beat Rayvin Mad.
    • As a bit of a heads up for the coming few weeks this is what last year's Trainer Review noted about Mr Noseda's approach :-
      • Looking at Mr Noseda's recent record in the late May to early June period in 2005-6 these are the horses he has run on debut were :- 
        • 2005 = Hill Of Grace (maiden winner), Vague (Group placed), In The Fashion (4th at Royal Ascot, maiden winner), La Chunga (Albany winner), New Art (dual winner) 
        • 2006 = Sander Camillo (Albany and Cherry Hinton victress), Kalgoorlie (4th at Royal Ascot, maiden winner), Simply Perfect (Group 1 winner), Minaash (maiden winner). 
      • La Chunga and Sander Camillo were both expensive 2yo Breeze-up sales purchases in the US that ran for owner R. Ogden. At the start of equivalent period in 2007 we had Baffled (expensive US yearling purchase for owner T Ludt) winning as at a short price on debut before running third in the Albany. On June 6th he ran three horses on debut including one in each division of a Nottingham 5f fillies' maiden. In the first division Francesca D'Giorgio (this year's best, expensive, US sales 2yo purchase for R. Ogden) who drifted in the market and gave a splendidly inept performance. She went on to prove that wrong with a fourth in the Queen Mary and ironing out a big field to win her maiden. The second division at Nottingham went to his other debut filly in Fleeting Spirit who went on to win two Group races and place in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. 
      • Right at the end of the period the colt Strike The Deal won on debut before going to Royal Ascot shortly afterwards to finish fifth in the Norfolk Stakes. He also won at Group 2 level before placing in the Group 1 (in name anyway) Middle Park Stakes. If only all trainers would package up their best 2yos and start them out at such a predictable time of the season. In 2008 start checking the declarations from late May through to early June and get to the course to see his debut runners if you can.
    • So, we are at the start of his 'Better horse kick-off' period if he is ahead os schedule and, anyway, his selected earlier runners are usually maiden winners at least. Mythical Border comes with the right paperwork in that she's an expensively purchased filly bought at the US 2yo breeze up sales (like La Chunga, Sander Camillo, Baffled, etc). If she's knowing enough she has a soft race to win and is well drawn in 9 of 11. His debut runners can throw in clunkers and William Buick riding is a bit of a surprise even if he is seen as the deluxe end of the '3lb claimer' list. But, you kind of hope she's the real thing and shows it here.
    • Jamie Osborne is at the other end of the 'schedule'. By this point last year he had 4 winners of six races and a 50%+ strike rate. He's actually run more horse this year so far but with no win and some pretty disappointing STO efforts. He must have some better horses to show us and this one cost £50,000 at the Kempton breeze ups and we have already seen cheaper buys from that sale compete well. He's poorly drawn in 1 and the trainer doesn't target debut wins as such but he should compete well enough in this weaker race amongst those with experience.


    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Hamilton :-
    • A typical set up for a maiden at the course with a small field and all newcomers. The trainers represented are all 'major' in Northern terms and all capable of getting debut winners. Four of the five represent trainers chosen for debuts of this type with Fathey (RA Fahey, 5f), Officer Mor (KR Burke, 5-6f), Bragging Rights (KA Ryan, 5f) & Snow Bay (B Smart, March To May). In that sense the race is a good indication of the type of runners we are starting to see being introduced into middle May. With the bigger stables getting into form and Royal Ascot just over a month away the better and precocious types they have will be ready to go and need to get experieince if they are up to going to the major meetings. Picking out the better types from the merely usable and precocious can be difficult.
    • Fahey put up the 7lb apprentice B. McHugh on his targeted debut winner Deadly Encounter on Wednesday and he rides Fathey here. The trainer has only run two on debut at the course in recent years with both finishing placed and both proving solid winners later.
    • Karl Burke's debut profit at 5-6f depends upon his succes from late May to early June when he introduces the best of his sprint 2yos. So far this year he has shown his normal season start with 4 places in 6 debuts but none of those have really threatened to win. When the good ones arrive they just look different and finish races off much more strongly. Officer Mor was sold at the Kempton Breeze Up Sales which has already produced debut winners Missile Dodger, April Pride & Langs Lash plus Fahey's Viva Ronaldo sho appeared to run a blinder from a poor draw on debut at Chester yesterday and looked as sure a next time winner as TV pictures can imply. 
    • Bryan Smart's early 2yos tend to be the better and usable sprint types and he is 1 from 2 with 2008 debuts. He runs two today with Snow Bay here (along with stable jockey Tom Eaves) and Able Master at Ripon with another regular rider for him with Royston Ffrench.
    • Kevin Ryan produced two debut winners last week followed by a weak one with Svindal behind Deadly Encouter at Beverly this week. He runs three today with Bragging rights here with an irregular jockey for the stable (this often matters because the stable jockey will ensure he's there for the debuts of the best types). The trainer is 1 from 4 with Hamilton debuts in recent seasons and has started out two good types with Anosti & Distinctly Game.
    • In short a race at Hamilton to take a real interest in but very difficult to unpick the sdtarands into who might win with a raft of good profiles on show.
    • Nottingham :-
    • Undaunted Affair (KA Ryan, 5f). As noted above the trainer runs three on debut today and stable jockey Neil Callan is at Nottingham for this one and then goes on to Ripon. This has the profile to be a strong debut for the stable and she may well provide the strongest oppostion to Art Princess. The favourite's Newmarket form is suspect to some degree and a strong debut from this one could challenge for the win.
    • Ripon:-
    • Just Five (M Dods, Long Shot). The early debuts for the trainer oftne produce a winner but he has one place from thee debuts so far and we may well be getting into the lesser material now. THis looks a cheap one and in a reasonably tough race.
    • Coleorton Choice (KA Ryan, 5f). At least one of the Ryan debuts on the debut should be an above average type and Callan moves on from Nottingham to rise this one. He's top weight in a low quality auction race despite only costing 19,000gns when retained. But, likely to be a solid enough 2yo and ought to place at least.
    • Able Master (B Smart, March To May). Just an average profile in the context of the race but a well prepared runner from the stable ought to place.

    ~ HTON 6:05 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    5 GOING TIME [36] - 1 32
    2 FATHEY [34] -5 1 36
    1 BRAGGING RIGHTS [30] -5 1 32
    3 OFFICER MOR [28] -5 1 24
    4 SNOW BAY [26] -5 1 29

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    ~ LING 2:40 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    9 MYTHICAL BORDER [40] - 1 31
    1 MEAN MR MUSTARD [34] -5 1 39
    3 SONHADOR [31] -5 2 28 1 28 35
    10 SOUTER'S SISTER [24] - 2 21 1 21 29
    4 STRIDING EDGE [24] -5 2 10 1 10 27
    11 TRUE BRITANNIA [12] - 1 24
    5 TAURUS TWINS [10] -5 2 -13 1 -13 11
    2 PROPER TOOL [8] -5 2 4 1 4 6
    6 AGNES LOVE [0] - 2 -135 1 -135 1
    7 LEAF HOLLOW [0] - 2 -104 1 -104
    8 MISS BELLE EVE [0] - 2 -38 1 -38

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    ~ NOTT 2:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 ART PRINCESS [45] - 2 38 1 38 39
    14 UNDAUNTED AFFAIR [38] - 1 32
    15 VOULEZVOUS [35] - 2 26 1 26 30
    11 READILY [34] - 2 30 1 30 21
    12 SEA OF LEAVES [30] - 1 33
    2 ARES CHOIX [29] - 1 33
    10 MISTY GLADE [29] - 1 28
    13 SIENNA LAKE [26] - 2 14 1 14 24
    8 LA BRIGITTE [24] - 2 19 1 19 12
    6 CECILIA'S LASS [21] - 3 17 2 -35
    4 BLUSHER [20] - 1 35
    7 JESSICAS GIRL [20] - 2
    1 AMOSITE [15] - 4 24 2 -36 20
    9 MISSY QUE [14] - 3 19 1 19 27
    5 BOLD ROSE [10] - 1 24

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    ~ RIPN 5:55 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    2 RAYVIN MAD [43] - 3 43 2 36 51
    1 COLEORTON CHOICE [34] - 1 32
    7 MULLGLEN [32] +4 2 3 1 3 22
    3 ABLE MASTER [29] +3 1 29
    5 JUST FIVE [24] +4 1 31
    11 LOOK FOR VALUE [22] +10 1 12
    4 EL PORTET [18] +3 2 2 1 2 34
    8 STEEL STOCKHOLDER [13] +5 1 16
    10 SWEET APPLAUSE [12] +8 1 13
    9 DISPOL GRAND [11] +6 1 23
    6 LUCKY BUDDHA [9] +4 2 -23 1 -23 5

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