British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - May 26th 
Races :-
  • 115: Carlisle 2:15, 5f Maiden (5)
  • 116: Chepstow 2:55, 6.1f Seller (6)
  • 117: Leicester 3:45, 5f Maiden (5)
  • 118: Leicester 4:20, 6f Claimer (6)
  • 119: Redcar 2:05, 5f Auction (5)

  •   May 26th Summary : 
     
    • The Leicester 5f maiden looks a match between Desire To Excel and Brae Hill. The Virtual Paddock is very useful in this instance because the pictures of them are taken against the same background at Newmarket (on different days) and allows a comparison to be made. They are different types with Desire To Excel a more compact, deep bodied type. Brae Hill is a good size and more lengthy through the body although he tapers off behind and is less powerful. On the positive side he is more obviously athletic than the less rangy Desire To Excel.
    • Desire To Excel made his debut in what looked a tough maiden at Newmarket that developed into a later race sprint. The 5th has gone on to win a moderate looking maiden in a slow time at Yarmouth and the 2nd had already shown real promise FTO (although Paddock Review of Ouqba reveals a lack of scope and a horse that needs to win it's maiden and will struggle up in class). The winner is entered for the Listed National Stakes over 5f on Thursday evening. 
    • Which means that you have to explain what happened to Desire To Excel at Salisbury. He wasn't particularly strong in the market prior to the race and was being niggled along by halfway as Sun Ship got into a better rhythm on the firmest ground he had encountered. He capitulated inside the 2 furlong pole and faded back to finish behind and amongst some ordinary horses. He certainly didn't look like a better type moving on to higher class races. The only mildly positive thing you could say was that it was too bad to be his real ability and perhaps add in that The Desert Saint also ran poorly. The pair of them were 2nd and 5th at halfway and those who were 3rd and 4th (Shiva Adiva & Macdillon) got outpaced by Sun Ship's later race effort but hung on to finish 2nd & 4th. Which doesn't suggest there was any real excuse for Desire To Excel to fade as he did. Either he isn't as good as he looks (the slow race at Newmarket didn't really prove a great deal) or there was a problem.
    • He runs again relatively quickly and at 5f so the trainer presumably thinks it wasn't anything serious, or, he couldn't find a reason. In general Paul Cole early season debut runners who go 'bang' at some point and never fulfil the (apparent) potential of their starts has not been that unusual. In many ways the win of Percolator and the dual winners Nothern Tour & Shampagne in 2008 have been better than his usual. In the long term you just wouldn't want to be betting on a Desire To Excel profile from the trainer.
    • So, the real question is how good is Brae Hill and will he be value on the day? The Class 5 race he made his debut in at Newmarket was a 'Median Auction' which meant that only 2yos by sires with Sales 'Median' prices below a certain level could run. The idea of these races as compared to entirely open maidens is to give juveniles from 'cheaper' backgrounds a better chance to win a race. The field for the race looked a motley bunch and Hannon's Prolific stood out both in terms of physical prescience and preparation. Brae Hill was comfortably the second biggest and usable enough despite the niggles about his lack of power behind. He ran a good debut by the trainer's standards until comfortably dealt with by Prolific to highlight his limitations. 
    • He's probably an OR70s rater and a 'Nursery' type but that would be good enough here if we put Desire To Excel to one side. Hannons' Lucky Redback was second string and achieved very little at this course on his debut last week and doesn't appeal as likely to better Brae Hill's standard. Liturgical was disappointing in Paddock Review at Bath and looked a late OR60s type and a bit difficult to see why someone bid £88,000 for him before the owner's topped it to keep him. He has a couple of valid excuses with a slow break which lost 4 lengths and racing in centre track. He got himself to 4th at best before fading in the final furlong. The problem is that he was doing that amongst limited horses. He finished with moderate types and the 3rd & 4th from that race couldn't make the first 4 last week in a similar race at Goodwood. August Days comes with a similar lack of recommendation having faded off an ordinary pace at Salisbury.
    • In summary, Desire To Excel is one to let beat you if he can prove that he's beyond whatever got a grip on him at Salisbury. The record of Cole runner's snapping together after a step back from debut is not a good one. Brae Hill has his limitations and you would want 9/4 or better to feel some value but hopefully Desire To Excel's presence will enable that. The others haven't achieved much and the best each-way alternative would be Liturgical.
    • At Carlisle the interest is in the newcomers with the two previous runners moderate. Mark Johnston has a good record in the race and at the course over 5f with 4 wins and 4 places from 12 runners since 2002. Two of the unplaceds have been in this race including with the limited Chatham Islands on debut for owner Sheikh Mohammed last year. To point up the mixed nature he has run two better class horses in the race in 2005-6 with Royal Engineer (STO winner) & Middleham (STO winner for the chief Sheikh). 
    • He runs Effort here for Sheikh Mohammed's son Hamdan (i.e. Hamdan bin Mohammed & not Hamdan Al Maktoum) to whom he has presented all his horses in training. He cost a lot of money but so did a lot of his siblings. The dam produced French juvenile Group winner Titus Livius early on and noting that has won at Listed level or above since. Johnston has a record with 5f debuts below his average (3 from 39 in 2005-7) and the one's he does get usually equate to higher class precocious types (Attraction on April 29th being an example). He hasn't had a debut winner this year and his only winner was Harwalla (3TO) who was second on debut on April 19th as his first representative of the year. He's also entered for the 5f Listed National Stakes  so presumably he was as good as he had for precocious ones. Which means that Effort wasn't that precocious, or possibly good, and likely to be low value here despite coming out top on profile.
    • Three other interesting debut runners with Bryan Smart (different to Johnston's approach) represented by Visterre and already has three debut winners. We are towards the end of his best period in most years and she has just average prospects of being the better type that can win FTO (from a poor draw). Dandy Nicholls has his best record with later season debuts and his FTO win this year seemed to owe a lot to a fierce pace breaking up the others that could have won that event. The other debuts have been more typical of his early season record. Hysterical Lady is an expensive purchase by his standards and has a good 5f 2yo pedigree overall.
    • Alan Swinbank did not have a debut winner before 2007 and then had four of them. With an increased number of 2yos in the last two seasons they have been readier to compete on their early runs and this probably reflects a change in the type of individual bought as well as an adaptation in the approach. He isn't one of those trainer's that loads the competitive 2yos into the early runners on recent evidence though and the debut wins came spread out through the season. Two debuts so far have brought a 4th and a 9th and he runs two FTO today. Uramazin runs at Carlisle and has a mixed pedigree and looks more a development type than a 5f one. At Redcar he runs Miss Gibboa who is a cheaper purchase and also has a mix of speed and stayer influences. Ones to watch to see how he is approaching 2008.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Visterre (Carlisle, B Smart - March to May)
    • Sweet Virginia (Redcar, KR Burke - 5-6f debuts). Trainer coming into late May to early June period when we should be expecting him to introduce the best of his sprint 2yos. Stable shown usual signs of coming into form in later May with two STO wins for colts who made placed debuts before his 'prime' period. The strength of the debut runs of Lord Shanakill & Officer Mor were indicative of average maiden winning ability (at least) given that the stable would not have their 2yos ready-for-debut at that time.
    • Inn Swinger (Leicester 4:20, WGM Turner - Long Shot). Trainer rarely gets debut winners after the first 2-3 weeks of the season and had a debut winner this year in the first race of the year. The way the form of that runner - Sally's Dilemma - has tailed off quickly links to how ready he had his 2yos in 2008. Last year he didn't get them really primed until into later April & May. But, the form tailing off after the 'peak performance' still showed up - for example with Only In Jest who was covered in e preview last week.

    ~ CARL 2:15 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    2 EFFORT [33] - 1 32
    8 VISTERRE [28] +5 1 29
    7 HYSTERICAL LADY [25] +5 1 30
    5 URAMAZIN [24] - 1 23
    6 COOL SONATA [20] +5 3 22 1 22 16
    4 SCARLET BLADE [19] - 2 -15 1 -15 25
    1 CHIPOLINI [18] - 1 39
    3 ROYAL PREMIUM [1] - 1

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    ~ CHEP 2:55 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 DAZZLING DUST [24] - 5 16 4 10 11
    2 COME ON BUCKERS [19] - 3 17 1 17 21
    1 HEAVEN OR HELL [16] -5 4 15 2 4 21
    9 MISSY QUE [16] +5 4 19 1 19 27
    8 KUWINDA [10] +5 2 -19 1 -19 35
    7 COMGHAIRE [9] +5 1
    10 TALULAH BELLS [6] +5 4 -7 2 -123 32
    4 FATHTASTIC [2] - 1 20
    5 FORZANDO BLOOM [0] - 4 -7 1 -7 6
    6 SWEET MUJAHID [0] - 3 -24 2 -30 6

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    ~ LEIC 3:45 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    2 BRAE HILL [44] - 2 33 1 33 27
    4 DESIRE TO EXCEL [44] - 3 47 1 47 30
    6 LUCKY REDBACK [32] - 2 23 1 23 29
    5 LITURGICAL [30] - 2 15 1 15 39
    9 AUGUST DAYS [24] +5 2 -11 1 -11 26
    7 TAURUS TWINS [23] - 3 20 2 -13 11
    8 TIME LOUP [7] - 1
    1 BLUSHING BERTIE [6] - 1
    3 COLIN STAITE [3] - 1

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    ~ LEIC 4:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 ASIAN TALE [24] - 3 9 1 9 33
    2 SUB PRIME [22] -3 4 31 1 31 39
    1 INCA SLEW [19] -5 1 33
    4 INN SWINGER [15] +2 1 11
    5 CREWEZANDO [11] +5 4 22 1 22 21
    6 SYRUP [10] +10 5 1 2 -7 21

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    ~ RDCR 2:05 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    9 SWEET VIRGINIA [33] - 1 24
    2 MUSICAL BRIDGE [31] -9 3 39 1 39
    1 COMPTON FORD [27] -10 2 -44 1 -44 31
    5 FAVOURITE GIRL [26] -2 2 13 1 13 22
    6 THE MAGIC OF RIO [25] -2 3 21 2 19
    4 EL BOBBY [24] -2 3 16 2 -28 26
    12 MARYGATE [20] +3 4 14 1 14 16
    8 MISS GIBBOA [18] - 1 23
    3 LUCKY BUDDHA [10] -4 3 -6 2 -23 5
    7 ROWAYTON [10] -1 1 18
    11 EXCITABLE [8] +3 2 -4 1 -4 20
    10 SALLY BOND [2] +2 2 -61 1 -61 22

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