British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Preview - June 4th 
Races :-
  • 152: Kempton AW 6:10, 5f Maiden (6)
  • 153: Kempton AW 8:10, 6f Novice (4)
  • 154: Lingfield AW 3:50, 5f Seller (6)
  • 155: Ripon 6:50, 6f Maiden (5)
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      June 4th Summary : 
     
    • Limted time for previews at present so just a few notes on the races. The Kempton 6f maiden is a class 6 and has attracted a mixed group. Klynch has featured before and has followed the maiden route without being dropped to a seller like his 'template' Rough Rock was last year. He's been a slow learner and hasn't really got into a race yet but has manage to progress a few places when asked to later in each of his last two races. Well drawn in 11 next to the rail he needs to show some early race pace and get a position which he hasn't really done yet. Interesting to see whether Ryan Moore can get that job done. On instinct, this sharp track doesn't seem to be ideal for him (mental sharpness or early pace-wise). A solid citizen and his later race effort would make him hard to pass in the straight but he isn't point-and-shoot material and a white-knuckler to support.
    • John Best runs what is presumably this year's best 'Kingsgate' for owner John Mayne with Kingsgate Storm. He cost 65,000gns and is by Mujadil so the same sire as Kingsgate Native (who missed his pre Royal Ascot debut so started in the Windsor Castle). The trainer doesn't get many debut winners but can get strong performances from the best types including a debut win here for Mullionmileanhour earlier this year. So, a possible winner if he's above average.
    • Red Rossini was supposed to run at Ascot along with Sun Ship in the 5f Conditions race at the end of April but missed that debut. The trainer starts out a variety of types at Ascot but they are usually up to average maiden winner level (say OR 75) although some dip into the OR65-74 range and struggle. This one was very expensive given the sire costing the same as the Best runner. Well drawn in 9 and if he's any good we should know early because jockey Hughes will have him out smartly and either onto the rail and leading or attending the pace.
    • Kitty Allen is dealt with below. Fylekh looked moderate in Paddock Review on his debut and the trainer hasn't shown signs he has any good early 2yos or is particulalrly forawrd this year. Further down the profile the possible lurker is Scrapper Smith. Ed Vaughan is like Marco Botti and the early runners will be prepared for debut and the better ones can win by wide margins. This one looked to have that profile for his debut in a tough Haydock 6f race and started joint favourite. He never got going or balanced and the other debut for the trainer was notably backward in condition (although also a limited type). He drops to 5f and switches to the polytrack so the trainer is trying things and if the ability is there he wouldn't be a surprise to compete well.
    • The Kempton Novice race sees Asaint Needs Brass giving weight all round but with a 5lb apprentice because the trainer knows he's struggling to win until the nurseries start. The Class 4 race he won here in March was poor and the Newmarket Conditions race he ran in looks a lot less strong than seemed likely at the time when rated by the Racing Post and others. Icesolator has won three times since but was blocked off in 9th and probably would have been a clear 2nd with a gap to go through. The rest have managed one maiden win and the Barry Hills trio, while running respectably, haven't won in four goes.  If you look at this picture of Senatorial who was beaten again at Leicester this week you'll see a smaller type and a struggler in open maidens and a big clue to real strength of the Newmarket Condition race level.
    • In general the trainer is behind schedule with just 2 wins from his early batch compared to 8 wins from 7 horses from the equivalent 2007 group. We haven't seen his early June debut winner(s) that go on to Royal Ascot yet either.
    • Back at Kempton this means that Asaint Needs Brass sets just an ordinary standard and is a OR76-83 handicapper of some sort. He will be competent and well turned out though and set a good marker for the others with his apprentice allowance. The Noseda filly Syrinx cost an awful lot and we have seen the trainer have a raft of debut winners already mixed in with the odd failure. On profile this looks a below top level one for the trainer and the rest of the others probably strong enough to better her in some way. The market has proved some indicator as to the type of debut to expect (strong & competent or not) with supported runners going better than drifters. In Transit looked small and in poor condition at Brighton last week and it was no surprise to see him struggle at odds-on before getting home. He doesn't appeal as one to step forward here. I Am The Best was second at Newmarket on debut although that doesn't look a strong race either. The winner had looked a OR80ish type and won well and the third (Verlegen) has been beaten comfortably since. Her pircture shows a leggy & narrow filly relying on athleticism rather than power and vulnerable to stronger runners. A clue to the strength of the form.
    • Redhead didn't make much of a show on debut in a slow race but has a good sales review and was a very expensive yearling given her sire (hHannon's old mate Redback). In a tricky race she appeals as the most likely to step forward and win by a margin if the race isn't going to develop into a close finish.
    • The Lingfield Seller sees Just The Lady dropped to this level after competing well enough in early season races. But she's small and that limits her and she was at her best in March and early April and isn't going anywhere. The trainer is happiest winning sellers & claimers and she comes out clear on profile. Consider that she was 9/1 for the Lily Agnes and not far behind Doncaster Rover & Aspen Darlin at Chester to get a feel for hos low level some of the early conditions races can be. Aspen Darling has placed in two Listed races since - has she metamorphosed into a real better type or does her presence tell you what you need to know about the quality of those Listed events?
    • Tallulah Belle is worth a mention because she's a nutcase but in the context of this race a solid physical type. If she could ever settle down she wouldn't be a surprise to compete at the sharp end.
    • At Ripon the 5f maiden the two Ryan runners are dealt with below and Sweet Smile sets a good standard. Mark Prescott had a 33/1 debut winner last night but that looked more to do with a full-on stands' rail bias on the straight (look at the result of the nest two races at the course for an indication - Royal Storm's first win for 4 years helped by being in great condition and a concrete strip up the rail). His other debuts this year haven't really been competitive and Point Of Light would have to be a good one to win FTO (possible on pedigree). Mark Johnston's debuts so far have been more variable than recently and Becausewecan has a non-5f pedigree. His sire Giant's Causeway hasn't had a 5f 2yo winner in Britain and the dam doesn't seem to add 5f pace. Another that would have to be Group class to win FTO. 
    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Kitty Allen  (Kempton 6:10, M Botti, All Debuts). Mr Botti's cautiousness with debuts has been noted at length previously. To a good approximation his 2yos don't run unless they are able to show a good proportion of their ability first time. They aren't going to be floundering around at the back or be given 'educational rides' (where the jockey never attempts to put the horse into the race and considers getting a bit of interference and running into the back of other horses as a major help) unless something unusual happens.
    • He has run one filly so far this year who was very wound up in the preliminaries and unseated the jockey when he tried to get on. The trainer had to step in to control her (picture) and she was taken to a box to be mounted. With all that malarkey you wouldn't be surprised if she finished last. But, she was an ok physical type in the context of the Shell And Core (err... Great Leighs) race and still well enough drilled for FTO to make second place behind a well supported winner. The liveliness goes with his horses being ready to race on debut (like Michael Jarvis, Godolphin in many years and so on). He doesn't turn out grazing sheep like Hannon for debut.
    • This filly is a cheaply reatined owner bred for a minor stud so probably has limited aspirations but ought to be ready to show it here. Poorly drawn in 1 and a 3rd-5th finish would seem 'right' but worth checking how strong the race looks with those ahead on profile including two on debut.
    • Shifting Gold (Ripon, KA Ryan, 5f). Trainer runs two in the race with this one looking second string to Sweet Smile who made a solid debut at 6f and drops back to 5f after not finishing that race off strongly (although against three above average types who pulled away to make the places).
    ~ KTNA 6:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 KLYNCH [37] - 4 36 3 -18 35
    3 KINGSGATE STORM [34] - 1 31
    5 RED ROSSINI [33] - 1 35
    9 KITTY ALLEN [30] +5 1 35
    2 FYELEHK [27] - 2 15 1 15 20
    10 NORFOLK BROADS [27] +5 1 38
    6 SCRAPPER SMITH [24] - 2 -27 1 -27 36
    11 THE SAUCY SNIPE [22] +5 2 22 1 22 29
    1 DALEPAK FLYER [16] - 1
    8 FARRIERS GATE [4] +5 1 30
    7 BETOULA [0] +5 2 -98 1 -98

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    ~ KTNA 8:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 REDHEAD [46] - 2 12 1 12 35
    1 ASAINT NEEDS BRASS [44] -14 3 44 2 32 34
    3 I AM THE BEST [44] -7 2 39 1 39 36
    5 SYRINX [38] - 1 37
    2 IN TRANSIT [36] -11 4 37 2 25 34

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    ~ LNGA 3:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 JUST THE LADY [24] - 5 24 4 18 10
    6 TWINKLE DE STAR [10] - 1 21
    2 INN SWINGER [7] - 2 -58 1 -58 10
    4 TALULAH BELLS [4] - 6 -7 2 -123
    1 CHAMPAGNE LEADER [1] - 3 -16 1 -16 22
    5 THE WONKEY DONKEY [1] - 3 -18 2 -34 3

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    ~ RIPN 6:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    7 SWEET SMILE [40] - 2 25 1 25 33
    3 LOOKAFTERNUMBERONE [36] - 2 32 1 32 23
    2 ELDORADO DAYS [34] - 2 7 1 7 35
    4 POINT OF LIGHT [34] - 1 25
    1 BECAUSEWECAN [30] - 1 38
    6 SHIFTING GOLD [24] - 1 33
    5 SCARTH HILL [19] - 1 25

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