British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - June 27th 
Races :-
  • 247: Chester 7:15, 7f Fillies' Auction (5)
  • 248: Doncaster 2:20, 6f Maiden Fillies' (5)
  • 249: Doncaster 3:25, 7f Novice (3)
  • 250: Folkestone 2:30, 7f Maiden (6)
  • 251: Newmarket July 6:00, 6f Maiden Fillies' (4)

  •   June 27th Summary : 
     
    • Some brief notes on the races follow. Before that a short detour to consider how impressive three trainers appear to be. The first two aren't secrets but a worth considering some general issues. B2yoR left Royal Ascot with Jim Bolger held in higher regard than before. Either he's approaching being a genius or he's up-to-something and there's absolutely no evidence of the latter (unlike with top US trainers) so he must just be really be very good at what he does. Over the last two-and-a-half seasons he has won British juvenile Group races with Teofilio, New Approach, Finsceal Beo and Cuis Ghaire won a sub-standard Albany Stakes last week. In that period Abigail Pett, Modeeroch & Saoirse Abu have made the first four in Group events.
    • The over-riding feeling in paddock review of those 2yos is "How does he do it?", That group wouldn't stand out in top class as bigger and better types and a nuber would count as below the average for the top class. But they turn up and deliver performances and go on developing. New Approach was a lightly made type and didn't stand out in the Dewhurst field and beat a group that didn't include a really imposing type. On 2,000 Guineas day he was in better condition (coat, fitness & calmness) than Henrythenavigator but smaller and less powerful and you knew the O'Brien colt was better if he was ready enough. Assuming normal development and with HTN further forward at the Curragh it was no surprise to see New Approach defeated and HTN at a longer price a giveaway.
    • But, at the Derby New Approach had changed and developed well in 5 weeks and you could believe he might be big & good enough to win. Still nowhere near as imposing as Casual Conquest but 'enough' if he handled things well. Experience of watching the unexciting physical types Bolger has won Group races with meant that you would take him more seriously. Cuis Ghaire didn't excite in paddock review either although she is very strongly made within what there is of her. The trainer said she found the 6f a bit quick and would be better over 7f+ so, in the context of his recent fillies, it wouldn't be a surprise to see her compete well into Group 1 and still be around next year.
    • If you follow 2yo so closely as to miss the nuances of 3yo+ racing then the full extent of Michael Stoute's skill & planning can excape you. Having watched a gormless Patkai floundering about on debut at 2yo and then having the minimum of nous to win a duff maiden STO you might wonder if Stoute knew what he was doing. Consider that this group all took two or three goes to win ordinary maidens last year - Colony, Conduit, Doctor Fremantle, Dr Faustus - and Tartan Bearer just had one run when placed in later season. From the 2yo view his performance with that group would raise a "So What?" and the knowledge that a David Loder or an original-model Henry Cecil would have got a lot more out of them (as might Jim Bolger). Then you watch that lot develop through various routes as 3yos and brought to their peaks at Epsom & Royal Ascot and the 'long game' he is playing becomes much clearer, and remarkable how cleverly the devlopment is plotted and revealed.
    • The third minor epiphany has over the last two weeks of racing has been watching the recent debuts and older runners for Tom Dascombe. That he is doing well has been generally noted and was covered in the 2007 performance review article on this site. But, knowing he's doing well is one thing but why is he doing it? There aren't that many ways that a trainer can really differentiate himself from the others. Most can get horses fit enough to race and the two main areas are probably 'Equine Recruitment' & 'Career Planning & Development'. If you have the right horses then, as with humans and projects, the job becomes much easier and a lot of the job will 'do itself'. But, you still need to know how to develop them to get the best results.
    • Thiis season he has run 7 juveniles with the most expensive costing 17,000 guineas and 5 at under 10,000 or equivalent in Euros. That's real money in most areas but it's bargain bin stuff when trying to buy (recruit) thoroughbreds. Firth of Fifth cost 5,000 and won an auction race by 7 lengths over the weekend (and trainer & jockey earn extra marks for getting from stall 1 across to the Magic Carpet on the stands rail at Lingfield's turf course to do it). Classic Blade had already won well and cost €19,000. Old Father Zieten looks a usuable little sprint in the OR65-73 range when he returns after his break. The ludicrously cheap Shiva Adiva ran well STO before failing 3TO (when she looked nervy and unwilling to race in the preliminaries and interesting to see how she comes back from her break - another test of his abilities). Wing Home was the best type in the Warwick auction field when he placed on his debut, Campbeltown Trader was a remarkable size (in muscularity terms) for an €11,000 purchase before placing at Windsor on Monday and even the filly Haafhd Time looked a good size and solid mover for the money before her unplaced debut at Newbury.
    • What hits you is that Mr Dascombe (plus whatever advisors he uses, if any) know how to pick cheap ones out of the sales. This is at the root of his success. The detail applied in the career planning and race placement support this to produce the results. Yesterday (Thursday) he won a 3yo Listed fillies' race with Clifton Dancer (an expensive 38,000gns but worth much more now) and again trainer & jockey get good marks for reading the conditions properly. With Warwick having firm going and a gale behind the runners in the straight front runners just weren't stopping (2 course records were broken on the straight course). Where was Clifton Dancer at halfway? Leading and never stopped and the better fancied runners couldn't get to her. She came from his 2007 crop of 2yos which also included 2yo Listed winner Max One Two Three (€23,000 and a real underperformer this year because her excitability at the course has tipped over into beserkery) & developing winner Zaskar (5,000gns) plus dual 2yo winner Gross Prophet (£2,200). Whoever is doing the buying they sould teach the Maktoum's buyers a bit.
    • At Newmarket there is a big field fillies' maiden over 6f. During the next three months we will see a raft of July Course maidens and it is worth reiterating the point that these will vary hugely in quality through the season. It isn't enough just to say of some horse that finished 6th in a 'Newmarket Maiden' that it should win with normal improvement when it tuens up at Leicester (or other smaller track) STO. If it was in a tough maiden FTO that may well be true. If it was in one of the empty versions it will be wrong. The worst are probably those where a big field spread across the course and a slow pace mix the abilities up so that garbage finishes with the later winners (that really messes those up who only work off the printed page or computer screen adn never look at the horses).
    • Last year's edition of this fillies' race was quite good and the later winners got to the front half of the race - Result. The winner placed at Group level and the Stoute trained runner-up won a Group 3 as a maiden. The 6th won a Listed race. For a comparison look at the Result of this 7f fillies' maiden at the course which featured all the same fashionable trainers, jockeys, etc. Following the fillies from that event as they toured the country looking for a win proved very expensive for anyone taken in by the "Newmarket maiden form so must be some good..." line. The second took 4 goes to win and and the 5th 3 before getting stuffed in nurseries. Following the 3rd, 5th & 7th was a nightmare ride. Anyway, enough of the caveats, you should get the message to try to glean whether a Newmarket maiden is any good at all. They aren't all 'Average at least (i.e OR75 for the winner) or better". They can be very thin and range down below OR60.
    • There are some interesting runners in the field including Resort for Michael Stoute. Stoute doesn't target debut wins and they usually come along with the better types after mid-season. His two debut runners this year to date have been uncompetitive and haven't recorded a positive rating. Go back to 2007 and his first 10 debuts between May 29th to July 28th managed just two places although most started at 6/1 or less. However, 9 of that 10 won during the year with the later starters usually winning STO or 3TO and the earlier runners needing more runs to get going. A few will be moderate and limited 2yo types but there will be the odd better one and Visit was one such in the equivalent race last year. 
    • Resort has a similar background being a well related filly for a major owner breeder. She's either running here, and now, because she's small and limited or because she's got some real ability. On balance she ought to be the better type but a place would rate a good effort (as with Visit in 2007) off a less than testing Stoute 2yo preparation.
    • James Fanshawe is different from Stoute and his debut runners are usually competent enough to compete well FTO. To quote the trainers' article :-
    • "[Fanshawe] hadn't had a winner in the period 2003-6 who had not made the first six places on debut and 9 of the 13 had made the first three with 5 FTO wins. As noted in the previews during the year here is a trainer who doesn't like wasting runs - Mr. Botti could perhaps look to Mr. Fanshawe for some hints on being careful but still actually running them. 
    • In a good year in 2007 he had six individual winners with two winning on debut, three others were placed and the other finished 6th. The 'Market' does appear to know what to expect from his runners and his full home preparation presumably helps this. He had 12 debuts that were 10/1 or less which included all six season winners and five placed and ten made the first six places. 
    • Conversely, 13 debuts were at 11/1 or longer and none of them were winners during the season. None of that 13 managed to place FTO and the best were two fifths by horses who then placed at shorter SPs in maidens STO (i.e. the debut indicated a good trainer could find them a weak race to place in later but not win). Overall, an interesting trainer to judge the ability of his 2yos from the circumstances of their debut. The SP and the B2yoR [Estimate] they achieve seem to be good indicators".
    • Stylish Dream has a good pedigree and ought to be a better early runner rather than the rabbit out early. Jamie Spencer riding would suggest the same.
    • The runner with the best form is Izzi Mill who exceeded profile expectations on her Nottingham debut by some way at 40/1. THis might well suggest that the rating given to that race was too high and the defeat of the winner (Uramazin) yesterday would support that view. She comes out top on profile but hasn't been paddock reviewed and more a test of the level of rating than thinking she'll win well. Miss Fritton failed over 5f on debut as favourite and the trainer doesn't normally send duff ones to the course and has a good record of getting failures back on track. She got a solid paddock report and ought to run much better her.
    • In summary, and interesting race to watch for potential and to try to assess the real quality on show but not an easy betting riddle on profile.
    • The Chester 7f Fillies' Auction looks a thin race with nothing having a strong profile. Mark Tompkins doesn't have a strong record with 2yos recently and has a 6% strike rate most years (10% is around average). He tends to have a number of 'early' runners who show up well enough FTO but then don't progress to STO and take to win if they ever do at 2yo. Most of his wins come in later season (August or later) and he tends to be a stable to follow once it comes into form later on.
    • His filly here - Cornish Rose - may well be favourite despite only a 5th on debut and being ridden by a 7lb apprentice. She finished 5th in a Newmarket maiden run in a slow time that didn't put the real distance between the runners in ability terms. In the context of the discussion above if some pundit starts going on about how she was 5th FTO at Newmarket and not far behind Honest Quality (winner since) then they need to do a bit more work. On balance she's one to oppose with anything with some substance. That's difficult because those with runs don't have strong profiles and newcomers don't win here in normal circumstances (a weak race like this would count as not usual). Meydan Groove would be opposable if she runs. Which means that the most likely chance of a 'surprise winner' comes from the Muir debut runner Rosy Mantle (well drawn if she can use it) or Karl Burke's Lady Salama.
    • The second of those made her debut at York and finshed unplaced at 22/1. The previous day Keeptheboatafloat hadn't done similarly at 33/1 in another maiden race. He improved STO to win so it is believeable that she could improve to win here and is one of the few in the field where the trainer hasn't resorted to an apprentice already. However, a thin race in quality terms but one where Cornish Rose ought to be opposed if she's 2/1 or less.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • It's Toast  (Newmarket, RM Beckett, All Debuts). Trainer has rarely used the Newmaket courses for debuts as his career has developed. In 2005 there was a single debut in August with Spinning Ruby who was 5th of 14 at 25/1 and won her second outing. In 2006 the only debut was in the equivalent fillies' maiden with Zonta Zitkala who was 7th in a tough race at 16/1. She was a solid filly who placed second in maidens on her next two runs.
    • Last year he ran two FTO at the Rowley Mile course in late September. Fr Dominic won his 7f debut at 10/1 and Houri (has won at 3yo) well beaten at 16/1 over 8f. It's Toast has a solid pedigree and is a half sister to the useful Dream Eater who won as a juvenile with development in 2007. She ought to be an average maiden winner, at least, on profile and interesting to see how she competes FTO. Seb Sanders usually rides the better debuts and is at Doncaster in the afternoon but James Doyle (has a 'second string' gentleman's agreement with Mr Beckett) rides here.
    • Moonlight Affair (Doncaster 2:20, ES McMahon, all debuts). Trainer has had 6 debuts to date with one debut winner and 4 of the other 5 have placed. Two of the placers have recorded B2yoR ratings in the 40s (a good level for debuts to date in the season) and were 'unlucky' to only place in reltaively tough maidens. This one has a below average profile.

    ~ CHES 7:15 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 LADY SALAMA [30] - 2 2 1 2 35
    3 CORNISH ROSE [27] +4 2 24 1 24 28
    2 MEYDAN GROOVE [24] +3 4 23 3 21 36
    5 ROSY MANTLE [17] +4 1 30
    4 LUNAR ROMANCE [9] +4 2 -50 1 -50
    7 MUSICAL MAZE [8] +5 2 -4 1 -4 15
    8 OUR APOLONIA [6] +5 1 2
    6 GRANNY MCPHEE [5] +5 1

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    ~ DONC 2:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    7 FARAWAY FLOWER [42] - 1 37
    9 PETER'S GIFT [40] - 2 33 1 33 33
    4 DREAM IN WAITING [38] - 1 36
    5 EXCEEDINGLY GOOD [27] - 2 8 1 8 35
    3 CLAPHANDS [25] - 2 15 1 15 30
    8 MOONLIGHT AFFAIR [22] - 1 36
    1 ADOZEN DREAMS [21] - 3 21 2 -8
    2 ALACITY [8] - 1
    6 EYESORE [8] - 1

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    ~ DONC 3:25 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    2 WILDCAT WIZARD [45] - 2 39 1 39 36
    4 MOTOR HOME [44] +3 4 38 3 1 34
    3 MISTER GREEN [40] +3 2 33 1 33 29
    5 CALLEY HO [39] +5 3 36 2 19 18
    6 DADDY'S GIFT [38] +10 4 34 3 30 35
    1 PRIME SPIRIT [36] - 2 29 1 29 35

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    ~ FOLK 2:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    6 RIO ROYALE [35] - 5 35 4 31 32
    10 ZEBRANO [35] - 3 35 2 12
    8 TEMPERANCE HALL [34] - 2 23 1 23 31
    3 DESIRE TO EXCEL [28] - 4 47 1 47 36
    9 WILBURY STAR [28] - 1 35
    13 LAHALEEB [27] +5 1 34
    11 BLUSHER [21] +5 4 22 2 7 34
    7 STARLIGHT WISH [19] - 1 36
    1 BA GLOBETROTTER [16] - 4 13 2 -34 34
    12 CHARISMATIC LADY [13] +5 1 36
    5 PAYMASTER IN CHIEF [9] - 3 -2 2 -13 22
    4 INDIAN FIESTA [8] - 2 3 1 3 25
    2 CASHED UP [4] - 2 -9 1 -9 29

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    ~ NMKJ 6:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    11 IZZI MILL [40] - 2 32 1 32 27
    16 STYLISH DREAM [40] - 1 40
    10 IT'S TOAST [36] - 1 34
    12 MISS FRITTON [35] - 2 -2 1 -2 35
    2 ARCTIC FREEDOM [33] - 1 32
    13 RESORT [31] - 1 37
    4 DOVE MEWS [28] - 1 32
    7 GEMINI JIVE [24] - 2 -75 2 -75 22
    6 FIRST QUEEN [21] - 1 32
    3 BOBBIE SOXER [20] - 2 7 1 7 36
    9 HOSANNA [18] - 2 -23 1 -23 35
    14 SAPPHIRE ROSE [17] - 1 22
    15 STELLARINA [13] - 1 13
    5 ELSIE JO [12] - 1
    8 HAYLEY'S GIRL [8] - 1 16
    1 ALL ANGEL [5] - 1

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