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At Beverley those with form do not set a strong standard and other
than Desert Falls shouldn't be able to cope with a vaguely adequate
debut runner. That one is poorly drawn and the best of the newcomers look
to be David Barron's topweighted filly Noble Heart in stall 11 of
12 and Richard Fahey's Solo Act in stall 7 (provided he isn't a
poor leftover after his raft of earlier season good 5f debuts).
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Typical race set-up at Brighton with two major stables dropping
runners with placed form who have been tried at higher than maiden race
level to try to get a '1' next to their name. Peter Chapple-Hyam is normally
a top 2yo operator and would compete well with Mark Prescott for knwoing
how good the 2yos are before they have ever run. But, he is having a poor
season by his standards with a single winner from 11 individual runners
at a 4.2% strike rate to last Sunday. The debut runners in early season
looked underdone and number in lower condition than you would expect from
his stable. Overall he is clearly not operating at his top level at present.
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Skid Solo made a solid debut in a Newbury conditions race and is
one of only two of the seven declared for that race still to win (the other
is Entrancer who runs in a nursery tomorrow of an OR60s mark which
looks a of some interest). He ran well enough to suggest an early maiden
win would be a formality but he's been tried against the same group he
met at Newbury with worse results. Then a run in the Norfolk Stakes (5f)
at Royal Ascot where in paddock review he looked underpowered against the
likes of South Central (he had looked big compared with the early season
average type). This is more his level but the overall trainer form is an
issue.
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Ed Dunlop is well ahead of his 2007 performance with 6 winners from 19
runners at a near 16% strike rate. He hadn't had a 2yo winner since June
15th though until Zaffaan won at Ascot last week. That one had always looked
a usable sprinter but too mentally immature before the Ascot win (withdrawn
on debut after panicking in the stalls and then a quiet intro for a firat
run). This lack of mental maturity and nervous attitude has shown up in
other runners this year and Johnny Rook had clearly let the atmosphere
get to him at Royal Ascot where he ran badly in the Chesham Stakes. He
drops back to 6f from 7f and is a similar ability level to Skid Solo and
would be value to beat that one if at longer odds.
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The Yarmouth selling nursery (the course is the 'Home' of juvenile
plating races and stages notably more than any other track) contains another
Ed Dunlop nervous fruticake with topweight Yokozuna. On debut in
a slowly run race he looked promising is making ground along the rail late
in the race. He was favourite initially at Grest Leighs STO but drifted
in the market and in paddock review had obviously 'lost it' mentally and
was putting all his energy into fretting and misbehaving and none into
being a racehorse. 3 later runs have produced hints of better form and
he could beat this group off OR67 on physical grounds because the rest
aren't strong by selling standards.
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Iy you take the OR62 as a good seller winner perch then the three previous
low class winner sin this race are on ORs 56-58 so the official handicapper
thinks they are below par. If Yokozuna still doesn't fancy this racing
lark then you mostly have a low quality race between horses who ought to
be in this grade and a toss-up between limited athletes. Nun Today
is on OR62 and runs in her first seller after three maiden runs and trainer
Stan Moore likes to wins sellers so she is of obvious interest. At the
bottom of the handicap is Strictly Royal who in pure 'Powerball'
terms is in the wrong place. He's a much bigger 2yo and more powerful than
an OR49 rater. Try comparing him to the tiny Percy Chorismatic on OR49
who is at her right level. The difference is that she is a 100% trier and
Strictly Royal ran in a 'bad boy' visor on debut and hasn't co-operated
even mildly since. If he would consent to shift himself then OR49 is just
wrong.
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The Yarmouth 7f maiden is similar to the Beverley race with low
level form from the experienced runners which sets a moderate standard
for the newcomers. Nothing stands out from those making their debut and
you could draw up a shortlist of possible that would be difficult to separate
without being at the track. Morning Sir Alan has a good pedigree
and background but is only his trainer's second 2yo runner in recent years
so difficult to trust him to turn this one out knwoing what to do. Michael
Stoute regularly uses the course to introduce well above average 2yos that
can win races like this even off an unstressed preparation at home. Mirrored
has the background to be better class and is a rare sales purchase, as
a foal, for Khalid Abdulla (Juddmonte Farms, etc) who normally relies on
home breds. If he's good he's unlikely to be a value price and might still
flunk it through greenness and if he's average he's unlikely to be ready
eanough. Beraimi comes from a trainer you can trust to win FTO with
the right material but this one looks an ordinary type on pedigree. Probably
enough of pushing the alternatives around the plate.
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