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The profile ratings have now been added for the day.
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Lack of time prevented a full review of last week but worth taking a brief
detour into Negative & Positive Powerball and touching on a couple
of today's races. Picking out three positives in Paddock Review fromt he
last week :-
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Holyrood (Picture)
- Ran in the important 7f maiden at the Newmarket July meeting for Michael
Stoute. Filthy weather so rugs all round which makes it more difficult
but the four tallest colts in the field were Swindler, Cloudy Start, Holyrood
& Soul City. Of those Swindler is the most powerful overall and a better
prospect for the future than, for example, Jedediah who ran for the same
owner/trainer in 2007 and won a 3yo handicap at the July Meeting. Cloudy
Start (Picture)
is a taller, rangy and ligher framed type and lacking some quality and
wound up on the day mentally and ran that way (keen and fading later in
the race). He's a solid favourite in the lesser maiden he will preumably
turn up in next time. Soul City (Picture 1
& 2)
had blossomed remarkably from his immature and shuffling presentation on
his Windsor debut. The Hannon's can do this with 2yos and it isn't the
first time the paddock reviewer has turned up on course to be fully surprised
by what improvement has occurred. Before the day the question was "Is Soul
City really the best 7f colt they have got to send to this race than they
like to win?". Although still a bit fizzy and stupid at times as the second
picture shows he was a bigger, likeable type in the group. Which brings
us to Holyrood who fits somewhere between Cloudy Start & Swindler.
Good height although probably only average build but good range and quality.
A 'Good Favourite' wherever he goes next but you would like to see a bit
more power overall to believe he's going on to compete to win at Group
level.
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The Cheka (Picture 1
& 2)
- The 7f Novice at Ascot last Saturday and the later 7f Maiden at Salisbury
saw the wheels, along with the doors in clown car style, fall off the 'Chesham
Stakes' form. Since the top of the B2yoR ratings were published on the
home page after Royal Ascot only two performances have got into the 62+
range to trouble the list. One was Classic Blade in taking the ludicrously
monickered 'Group 2 Superlative Stakes' with a 63 estimate. The other was
The Cheka for his 10 length win in this race which was valued at 73. We
have already seen with Orizaba this year (9 length debut winner) that large
margins don't necessarily mean Group winners later. But, The Cheka has
more power and quality about him than Orizaba and ought to be able to further.
The most impressive thing about him was his mental maturity, like the 18
year old boy who's already the most mature person in the man's fottball
team and get's made captain.
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He was always travelling better than the others and went clear comfortably
in a way that seemed to surprise even an gnarled old jockey like Richard
Quinn. It had the other jockeys (Picture)
checking the Big Screen to see how far they were beaten by. Also a good
example of British understatement from the head lad. When Glamorous Spirit
won at Ascot on debut earlier in the year the connections were shouting
the Italian equivalent of "Oi, Oi" for minutes on end, at top voume, with
no interruption and then high-fiving. After this debut effort which was
much better the head lead, witht he rug folded over his arm like a head
waiter, met the jockey with a "That all right for you, Sir?" like checking
his soup was to taste. Good stuff. And some spontaneous polite applause
from the gallery.
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Vitoria (Picture 1
& 2) -
Kempton 7f maiden fillies' races (and there are a lot of them) can be pretty
moderate and full of little ones you can warm to at all. So when Vitoria
came into view she stood out hugely as bigger and better than the rest
provided she could shift herself properly (she moves tightly behind which
you could like to see free up). But, she's lovely and a 'Good Favourite'
wherever she goes. She's was clearly not mentally sharp but on power ground
she had to run well in the group if she had even half a clue as to the
requirements. She attended the pace well enough and was the only one to
go on when the experienced favourite kicked in the straight. Vitoria has
a Lowther Stakes entry apparently (6f Group 2) but since she made her debut
over 7f and ran like a stayer in some ways by responded in the final furlong
to make another 1 length+ effort and you would imagine she'll be best over
8f.
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The winner of that race was Spamish Cygnet who didn't impress in Paddock
Review (Picture)
but clearly has a good engine but you wouldn't think she could improve
much and the placed horses ought to be better than her by the season end.
The third was a good debut run by Walter Swinburn's Brief Candle
(Picture) for his father in law (often the best debuts for the stable)
in the Nijinsky colours. She showed what looked like a minot change-of-pace
to bridge the gap to the first two before stalling (or probably Vitoria
responded) but an interesting effort. The first three were clear of Balck
Nun and the instinct might be to think that the Hannon filly hadn't improved
for her debut. She probably hed but the first three are better types in
the context of this race and Black Nun finished where she ought to.
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With Rose Cheval only 5th the over-rating of the Newbury race (Result)
that she placed in is even more obvious. The Paddock Review guy didn't
agree with the 35 estimate for Triple Cee on physical grounds at the time,
always learning. The 4th from that Newbury race - Sterling Sound - was
the best type in the Lingfield paddock review yesterday but not in good
condition and the Tregoning horses haven't really bloomed yet. She ought
to have won but as soon as the jockey took the decision to gun her round
the outside, 3 wide, early to try to get to the lead on the rail rather
than drop in you knew she was going to burst sometime in the last furlong.
And she did and the lesser type Carina Nebula bumble past in a slow time.
Mr Tregoning is much too well schooled to blow-a-fuse in public and, anyway,
here's little point because jockey's have a difficult job making snap decisions
at 40mph with partners who are may well be working against them. Not sure
all that arms folded stuff (Picture)
is positive, open, body language though.
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That's the positives. The 'Racing Post' currently does a "Bankers or Blowout"
feature looking at a short priced favourite and how likely they are to
win. 2yo maidens who placed FTO often get included. Using Paddock Review
information you can play a simple system of 'Good Favourite/Bad Favourite',
as B2yoR has for a long time, and get a long way and avoid a lot of surprises.
The three above would be 'Good Favourites' wherever they go because thye
have the physical oomph to back up the promise. This doesn't mean they
will win next time but if you back the ones with the power credentials
over a long period not a lot will go far wrong.
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Try looking at the VP pictures for the fillies' 7f maiden at Doncaster.
Sparkling Crystal & Zaaqya - Good or Bad 'favourites'? Is there's anyhting
else in the field with a bit of substance (perhaps Atabaas Allure if you
can check her on course) you are going to be watching the later stages
of the race through your fingers.
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