British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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 Racing Previews Results
Racing Preview - August 10th 
Races :-
  • 501: Leicester 2:20, 7f Maiden (4)
  • 502: Redcar 1:40, 7f Maiden Fillies' (5) Div I
  • 503: Redcar 2:10, 7f Maiden Fillies' (5) Div II
  • 504: Windsor 3:00, 6f Auction (5) Div I
  • 505: Windsor 4:00, 6f Auction (5) Div II
  • 506: Windsor 4:00, 6f Conditions (3)
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      August 10th Summary : 
     
    • The Group 3 event for fillies' yesterday (the 'Sweet Solera' Stakes) was a good example of how early juvenile Group races are mostly full of useful and precocious fillies. The 'Group' label on the races at Royal Ascot, Newmarket July Meeting, Glorious Goodwood and so on suggest they are of similar worth to older horse Group events but this is often not the case Many of the runners in early Group races, even the placed & winners, do not have Group race futures and what you have is a test between the best of what is ready enough 'now'. If we look at last year's 'Sweet Solera' - result - then none of the runners won again at 2yo and haven't done much to enhance their reputations at 3yo. A race like this will produce good fillies like Soviet Song at times but it often produces nothing which is why you have to look at the horses and not just the record.
    • Now, the B2yoR estimates for many of the Listed & Group races to date have been pretty low (see home page) and remember that the highest ratings by season end should be above 100 which means the best that we have seen (Art Connoisseur at 85) is 10-15 lengths behind the pinnacle performance(s) we should see this year. He was beaten comfortably by Mastercraftsman in Ireland to make the point about not over-rating early Group races because where are you going to put to winners who reveal themselves as real 'Top Class' if you have hoisted any Group winner into a high ratings level? Art Connoisseur's quickening clear of a solid Coventry field stands out as better than anything we have seen in Britain so far (and with the niggling feeling that a Himalya is the one in behind who can step up to a really high level).
    • The fillies' we have seen so far haven't really excited and the highest rating so far has been from Jargelle when placed in the Molecomb but that was only at 67. The profile rating for the 'Sweet Solera' had the unseen Rainbow View top on 60 with the paddock reviewed fillies topping out in the 50s to make the point that they aren't real 'Group' fillies in any long-term sense without strong improvement. Rainbow View showed what happens when a real better class type gets mixed in with these just useful types. They run away from them and demonstrate why you need to leave that gap above the ordinary ones in the ratings so you have somewhere to put an easy winner like Rainbow View. The gap back to the rest also nicely makes the point that higher class horses are pretty rare and the ratings near the top should form a very thin climb up to the peak.
    • Anyway, she beat two fillies who have Official Ratings (ORs) in the mid-80s so even in the over-rating OR model she beat only ordinary fillies. If you use 2lbs (2 points) per length for then Rainbow View gave the second a 12 point beating (some handicappers would use a higher amount and perhaps get up to 15 points). This would make her effort worth OR100ish if the two fillies behind ran to their level. The official handicapper wont allow that and will want to give Rainbow View something above 108 and Misdaqeya & Minor Vamp (whose latest wins in maidens were both steps forward from previous efforts) can both look forward to 10 point+ hikes in their OR. That's a bit of a problem because if they meet the fillies who ought to fit into the wide gap between them and Rainbow View in later higher class races for fillies they are going to struggle and the OR will probably oversell them. Misdaqeya has more scope to develop.
    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Accumulation  (Redcar 2:10, MW Easterby, Long Shot)
    • Kochanski  (Redcar 2:10, M Johnston, 7f Debuts), in profit to date after 3 debuts wins at 7f since he restarted FTOs at this distance in later July.
    • Safari Guide (Windsor 4:00, P Winkworth, Long Shot). Two earlier season debut wins at 33/1 & 50/1 followed up with an 8/1 success by Cut The Cackle (owned by the trainer as this one is) at Sandown on Thursday night. The shorter price due to some combination of the market getting wise to taking his debut runners a bit more seriously, a moderate to average race and some hints that the trainer thought he had a better one (although she is rather small which dampens any enthusiasm for her future runs).
    • The trainer said he was going to try to get some 'Black Type' for Cut The Cackle by the season end when she would probably be sold. This means running her in a Listed or Group race and trying to find a place (which gets her name in lowercase bold (i.e. 'Black') in the sales catalogue) or more improbably a win (uppercase and bold in the cat.).
    • Safari Guide runs in the second division of the Auction race at Windsor and this looks much more interesting, and stronger, that the first part. The 3:00 Division One features Court Approval & Kingswinford as the pick of those with 'form' and both are getting worse after being wound up to try to win earlier season races. Damassin was 50/1 third on debut and the wrong side of a garbage gap rather than looking an underestimated filly and ran poorly next time. 
    • Which means looking at Importer and Kayceebee (potential for better than he has shown on paddock review) for a value bet amongst those with form. Worth watching out for a debut 'punt' from Stuart Williams' Maisie Mouse given that it isn't that strong a race.
    • The second division looks deeper and each of Rumble Of Thunder, Louidor & Wing Home got positive notes from their debut runs from the paddock. With the first of those just preferred for the day although you have to take any Dascombe STO run seriously (but where has Wing Home been all this time? Getting better or getting better, err.. well). Golden Destiny looked usable off a low weight as well although she takes on bigger colts here with a smallish allowance.
    • Add that group to Safari Guide and perhaps the odd lurker and you have a more interesting event than seeing whether Court Approval still has enough oomph left in him to win (unlikely and not a proposition to bet on).
    ~ LEIC 2:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    5 COMBAT ZONE [46] - 3 46 2 33 49
    1 AATHAAR [45] - 2 41 1 41 37
    8 KITE WOOD [40] - 1 42
    12 POSTER [38] - 2 31 1 31 32
    9 MAKHAALEB [35] - 2 28 1 28 37
    11 OLD STREET [25] - 2 5 1 5 37
    13 SQUAD [24] - 1 31
    10 MEDLOCK [22] - 2 14 1 14 37
    2 ACHROMATIC [21] - 2 8 1 8 40
    4 BRAD'S LUCK [18] - 1 23
    6 KAYFIAR [16] - 2 13 1 13 36
    3 ALDERBED [8] - 3 5 1 5
    7 KIDSON [6] - 2 -18 1 -18
    15 ROCK ON CIARA [4] +5 2 -16 1 -16
    14 ENDOFMYTETHER [2] +5 2 -23 1 -23 30

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    ~ RDCR 1:40 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    10 SERADIM [34] - 2 31 1 31 36
    9 SAVE THE DAY [30] - 2 9 1 9 38
    2 CASTER SUGAR [28] - 2 18 1 18 32
    5 HETTIE HUBBLE [28] - 2 16 1 16 18
    8 MY SWEET GEORGIA [28] - 4 28 2 27 37
    6 IZZY LOU [26] - 1 33
    3 ENHANCING [24] - 2 19 1 19 30
    4 EVER LOVED [22] - 2 -10 1 -10 49
    11 SILK COTTON [18] - 2 -15 1 -15 32
    7 MAYBEME [8] - 1
    1 ANOTHER ECHO [3] - 2 -6 1 -6 15

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    ~ RDCR 2:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    6 KOCHANSKI [32] - 1 38
    10 STRAITS OF HORMUZ [32] - 1 32
    3 DEMEANOUR [29] - 2 16 1 16 32
    7 MADAMLILY [19] - 1 29
    1 ACCUMULATION [10] - 1 16
    8 NIMMY'S SPECIAL [9] - 3 4 1 4 35
    9 PUNCH DRUNK [8] - 2 4 1 4 23
    2 DAKOTA TWO [6] - 3 -85 2 -115 32
    5 HAULAGE LADY [2] - 2 -9 1 -9
    11 WHO'S SHIRL [1] - 1 1
    4 FOREVER'S GIRL [0] - 3 8 1 8

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    ~ WDSR 3:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 KAYCEEBEE [34] - 3 23 2 6 34
    1 COURT APPROVAL [33] -4 5 40 3 31 41
    2 IMPORTER [32] -1 2 21 1 21 30
    3 KINGSWINFORD [27] -1 11 41 4 36 30
    10 DAMASSIN [26] +5 3 29 1 29 20
    11 RAY OF JOY [25] +6 3 17 1 17 30
    7 MAISIE MOUSE [23] +1 1 12
    8 BROOKSBY [17] +3 2 -9 1 -9 35
    12 SERIOUS ATTITUDE [12] +6 1 20
    5 MFI'VE [9] - 2 -3 1 -3 20
    6 BERMONDSEY BOB [6] +1 2 -64 1 -64 29
    9 FLEUR DE'LION [5] +3 3 -1 2 -28 31

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    ~ WDSR 4:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 RUMBLE OF THUNDER [37] - 2 31 1 31
    7 LOUIDOR [34] +3 2 30 1 30 28
    4 WING HOME [34] +1 2 26 1 26 29
    10 MISS TIKITIBOO [29] +6 1 36
    11 GOLDEN DESTINY [24] +7 3 16 1 16 27
    3 SAFARI GUIDE [20] +1 1 29
    12 BUCKERS BEAUTY [17] +8 3 11 1 11 30
    8 CABO POLONIA [16] +4 1 31
    5 RED ROBERT [15] +2 3 10 2 -70 36
    2 HI SHINKO [12] +1 3 8 1 8 20
    9 TOBIZZY [5] +4 3 1 1 1 30
    6 IGOTHIM [3] +3 1 16

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    ~ WDSR 4:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH [54] - 4 58 3 41 34
    2 DESERT PHANTOM [50] - 2 36 1 36 36
    1 BAYCAT [47] -4 5 52 2 40 22
    3 GINOBILI [44] - 2 33 1 33 35
    6 SOUL SISTA [43] +7 7 30 5 22 29
    5 ZEZAO [43] - 3 32 2 13 35

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