Accumulation (Redcar 2:10, MW Easterby, Long Shot)
Kochanski (Redcar 2:10, M Johnston, 7f Debuts), in profit
to date after 3 debuts wins at 7f since he restarted FTOs at this distance
in later July.
Safari Guide (Windsor 4:00, P Winkworth, Long Shot). Two earlier
season debut wins at 33/1 & 50/1 followed up with an 8/1 success by
Cut The Cackle (owned by the trainer as this one is) at Sandown on Thursday
night. The shorter price due to some combination of the market getting
wise to taking his debut runners a bit more seriously, a moderate to average
race and some hints that the trainer thought he had a better one (although
she is rather small which dampens any enthusiasm for her future runs).
The trainer said he was going to try to get some 'Black Type' for Cut The
Cackle by the season end when she would probably be sold. This means running
her in a Listed or Group race and trying to find a place (which gets her
name in lowercase bold (i.e. 'Black') in the sales catalogue) or more improbably
a win (uppercase and bold in the cat.).
Safari Guide runs in the second division of the Auction race at Windsor
and this looks much more interesting, and stronger, that the first part.
The 3:00 Division One features Court Approval & Kingswinford as the
pick of those with 'form' and both are getting worse after being wound
up to try to win earlier season races. Damassin was 50/1 third on debut
and the wrong side of a garbage gap rather than looking an underestimated
filly and ran poorly next time.
Which means looking at Importer and Kayceebee (potential
for better than he has shown on paddock review) for a value bet amongst
those with form. Worth watching out for a debut 'punt' from Stuart Williams'
Mouse given that it isn't that strong a race.
The second division looks deeper and each of Rumble Of Thunder, Louidor
& Wing Home got positive notes from their debut runs from the
paddock. With the first of those just preferred for the day although you
have to take any Dascombe STO run seriously (but where has Wing Home been
all this time? Getting better or getting better, err.. well). Golden
Destiny looked usable off a low weight as well although she takes on
bigger colts here with a smallish allowance.
Add that group to Safari Guide and perhaps the odd lurker and you have
a more interesting event than seeing whether Court Approval still has enough
oomph left in him to win (unlikely and not a proposition to bet on).