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Such Optimism (Salisbury 2:00, RM Beckett, All Debuts)
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The 8f maiden at Sandown has just 5 runners of whom 3 are newcomers. In
the context of how difficult it is to win an 8f race on debut this event
is clearly a little unusual. Miss Sophisticat is better than she
has shown to date on physical type and should be suited by 8f on softer
ground. Blue Dynasty is a powerful build altough a shorter and stockier
model than the classic, rangy, stayer. As with the filly he has the potential
to perform to a much higher level than he showed on debut here in a slowly
run race. Which means that they should set a stiffer ability level for
a FTO runner to exceed then would seem likely at first glance.
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Mick Channon, responsible for Too Much Trouble, has trained an 8f
debut winner in recent years among the three newcomers. That was in 2006
with Go On Be A Tiger for this owner - Jaber Abdulla - who seems to own
a privileged position with the stable and gets a good selection of the
better sales purchased 2yos. That was on October 10th though and one of
just 6 debuts at the distance during the year. In 2007 he had only one
placed debut over 8f which was also in October and for the same owner.
None of the 7 debuts at the trip were placed in 2005.
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This is an early 8f debut for the trainer and in general he starts at shorter
distances before stepping runner up in distance. Like Richard Hannon, whom
he worked for as an assistant, he tries horses over 5f that other trainers
would not just on pedigree grounds. He has said that he trains horses,
not pedigrees, in interview.
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Paul Blockley rarely starts horses at 8f, or longer, with just 5 such debuts
in the last 6 seasons. One of those, in October was successful but at 33/1
in a dreadful race at Brighton. His runner Zafisio has enough in
his profile to believe he could be up to average maiden winner class.
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In summary, and interesting set-up and one where there may be value in
the two runners with unplaced runs to their name against the newcomers.
The records of the trainers suggest they will need to be well above average
to get a win first go.
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