Bill On The Hill (Haydock 3:00, MW Easterby, Long Shot)
Michael Stoute has a mixed record with September FTOs in recent years but
the debuts during the month regularly include a number of his higher class
runners. He had three debut winners in mid September in 2006 from the high
class trio of Kaseema, Shorthand & Adagio who all ran in Group races
on their only later runs that year. Last year he had no debut wins from
7 newcomers but then had three in first 9 days of October. The seven FTOs
in September did include higher class types such as Confront (2nd at 15/8
and won STO) & Patkai (a clueless 6th at 20/1) and the SP does seem
to split the types for the stable by this time of the year. The group had
less able ones mixed such as Houghton who placed again yesterday in his
third go in a maiden as a 3yo.
So far this month he has run six on debut of which none have won but four
have placed (in the SP range 100/30 to 7/2), two have finished 4th (at
9/4 in a Class 2 conditions race and 10/1 in an ordinary maiden). This
matches the basic model of a mix of good horses and less able ones (who
may still be OR70s kit) of which prospective Group quality is needed to
turn the laid-back debut prep into a FTO win. The SP looks a reasonable
indicator of what type the debut runner is (good or lesser in context).
Of the six to date Standpoint (picture),
Imposing, Evasive (Picture)
& Strictly are probably all at least average maiden winner types STO
and the three colts (i.e. excluding the unreviewed Strictly) are probably
better than that.
He runs one in each division of the Lingfield 7f maiden with King's
Chorister an owner bred for Cheveley Park Stud (like Evasive &
Strictly) out of Group 1 winning mare Chorist. The second is a less well
related owner bred for the Rothschild family with Cosimo. Interesting
to check how the market reacts to both and whether either is high enough
class to win FTO.