To follow on from the notes in Monday's Preview Roman Glory runs
in the first division of the 7f maiden at Goodwood. He doesn't have the
best form to show but has more potential on Paddock Review than any of
the others seen so far and one of the best prospects from that Sandown
maiden which has produced four winners to date. You suppose Frankie Dettori
bothering to get to the course and out of the weighing room ought to be
To tidy up Monday a good question would be "What happened to Lonely
Star?". The filly finished fifth in that Sandown race and ought
to have made a better show in a fillies' maiden on that? She was poorly
drawn in 1 of 14 and started only 3rd favourite at 9/2 and only that short
because Luca Cumani's Splashdown drifted from 2/1 to 5/1. No pictures
but a short summary to try to show how Paddock Review can help to put races
in context. At Sandown amongst colts she looked calm and professional but
she looked very different second go. Two handlers isn't a bad thing as
such but a hint to look at the overall attitude of the horse. Lonely Star
was just too wound up and fizzy and unfocussed on the job of being a racehorse.
She added a poor break (probably part of the lack of focus) to make her
poor draw entirely unworkable and trundled home in midfield. She is presumably
better than that but you would want to see her behaviour next time before
supporting her. The trainer's (David Lanigan) other filly, Say No Now
in the first division, on her STO seemed to have the opposite problem
in that she was a little lethargic & resentful and ran like she was
just going to do enough to not get into trouble without exerting herself.
The trainer has had a STO winner in this, his first, season but the efforts
of his pair here weren't terribly inspiring.
The race had a couple of other bigger fillies with Badiat Alzaman
(supported to joint favourite) & Hold The Star. The first is
trained by David Simcock who used to get a lot of fizzy FTOs but seems
to have stepped back a bit. This one was on her second run and not 'blind
stupid' but immature and running around the handler like a toddler. Ran
okish in 4th in the slower division of the race and a little improvement.
The biggest filly was Hold The Star trained by Ed Vaughan who has featured
here for getting 2yos too buzzy FTO. Starlight Wish was wired to the moon
on his debut and has calmed down only a little on later runs and Hold The
Star was a little better but still wired to something too far up in the
air to be a racehorse on the day. She goes into the 'Of Interest' next
time tray and Jamie Spencer riding and whether he bothers to (or a 'senior'
jockey) next time.
One interesting thing to ponder is where Simcock, Vaughan & Lanigan
learnt their trades. B2yoR thinks (feel free to check and upgrade the knowledge
of others) that they all bumped around the Godolphin organisation at various
times and they used to be notable, notorious?, for buzzy, taut debut horses.
They have stepped back this year but this is a cycle that goes around.
When David Loder had the Sheikh Mohammed 2yos he used to get 40% debut
wins one year and 10% the nest depending upon what he was asked to do this
Anyway, with the bigger fillies not up to the task the race took a lot
less winning than the first division. The winner would have made a volunteer
4th in that race. So, why did Splashdown drift from 2/1 to 5/1? You would
suspect it went something like (a) The trainer has said he thinks she is
a real good filly and has high hopes for her. This gets transmuted into
some version of "This is the next Soviet Song/Secretariat/Arkle...etc.."
after it's been through a few hands.
So, it opens up 2/1 but the trainer doesn't do strong debuts and when asked
says something like (b) "She's [weasel word that ought to be banned] nice
but she will be green and will need the run". The fact that this never
was a 'plot' to win first time dawns on people and the reality of her just
being a 'nice' filly FTO kicks in and she drifts. The Paddock Reviewers
would say that she looks an OK type without being obviously big or superior
and she isn't particularly fit.
So, the on-course people got it wrong? No and Yes. This is a maiden race
with widely differing abilities on show, not a handicap where horses are
more closely matched. Ask the question 'Is she fit?' and the correct
answer is 'No' she is below the average you will see even for 2yo debut
runners. But, ask the question "Do you think she can run down limited small
ones like Speedy Cleaners & Mayaalah in the straight
giving them a 3-4 length start?". The answer to that might be 'Might be
able to..". Those two are OR65-75 types so if Splashdown is a 95 filly
but 20lbs below her best through inexperience and and a lack of tightness
she might do it with a struggle. Well, she did do it in the last stride
and in a slow time that would have got her through to fourth in the first
division which probably puts the overall quality of the two races into
context. The first three in Div 1 are ok and the gap back to the others
might be a 'Garbage' one. Speedy Cleaners & Mayaalah are definable
in quality and Splashdown is clearly much better than they are and can
produce a much better performance. There remain some interesting, bigger,
fillies in the second division that Splashdown wouldn't have reeled in
if they had had a 'perfect trip' like Speedy Cleaners. But, their future
depends on those nice young chaps training them and their ability to get
the best from them. A mention for Evening Sunset who looked a good,
bigger filly from the second division who is still physically immature.
She has a good frame to grow into and a very likeable attitude. She finished
6th and looked a real 'Nursery Type' now she has had her three qualifying