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"Another One?, put it on the pile over there with the others......".
Another season begins which will see around 3,200 juveniles, handled by
300+ trainers and representing more than 350 sires competing. The course
they will battle over will comprise more than 1,000 races spread over more
than 7 months. Despite this being the 'Turf Season' around 20% of those
races will be on the all-weather. Go back three years and the percentage
of races on synthetic surfaces was just over 8% of the total and you wonder
who asked for all the extra polytrack opportunities.
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Anyway, horses and races. A typical looking group of 22 declared for the
Brocklesby and enough similarities to 2008 to see the 2yo system starting
out within it's normal boundaries. Different in detail each time but presenting
but a recognisable pattern overall. To get a feeling for the similarities
here is the result from 2008 - Brocklesby
Result - and try thinking about how they it matches up in profile to
what we have this year. The - 2008
Preview - gave an outline of the types of stories (behaviours) the
outcome of the Brocklesby system, err, race can realise. Worth reading
that as background which wont be repeated here.
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Last year's edition was a good one in that the 19 runners produced 11 winners
through the season including 3 at seller and claimer level. Two of the
field managed to win Listed races with Knavesmire (M. Brittain) winning
a poor version of the Hilary Needler and Saxford improving well (typically
for his trainer) to win a better quality Rose Bowl Stakes. Of the eight
non-winners as many as three showed solid placed form. Another two had
the profile to be winners but Barry Hills' Mr Melodious proved a ropey
racehorse (see notes on Swilly Ferry below) and Tim Easterby's Diamond
Blade hasn't run since. Mr Easterby usually chooses a solid 2yo to run
in the Brocklesby and they often need time to develop. His 2007 runner
was Hamish McGonagall who ran poorly but won in late season and developed
into a good sprint handicapper at 3yo. With that background it should be
interesting to see what Diamond Blade is capable of presuming he returns
at 3yo.
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The 2008 race shows that although the later winners were mostly not
among the stragglers the race did mix the abilities up. The winner never
won again and looked paceless when the pressure was put on her in later
races. The Doncaster meeting in 2008 had a huge stands' rail bias that
produced a lot of impressive looking winners on the rail who never looked
quite as 'brilliant' again. If you look at the draws in the result for
2008 it shows the bias towards high (stands' side) draws. It enabled moderate
ability horses like the 4th & 5th to finish prominently. Conversely
the 3 horses with single figure draws that made some progress into the
stands' rail mob were all solid winners later and were demonstrating that
latent talent by getting past midfield. How fit the trainer gets the horses
for debut will also shift them around the finishing positions to some extent
and the winner probably had little room to develop in that sense given
her trainer. Given the large field this year a working model of a high
draw being some sort of advantage seems sound.
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With that background the following sections are a canter through this year's
runners noting the trainer's record with early season runners and whether
they get FTO winners. Number one is Mick Channon's Archers Road
who looks one of his owner-bred-2yo-for-a-pal type. In last year's race
he entered a couple of this type (one non-winner and a seller winner) but
ran the yearling purchase Shadow Bay. He ran badly despite a prime draw
and looked a real mouse whom the trainer got rid of in a seller. In 2005
he ran a 'Shadow Bay' type and a home bred duff one. Go back to 2002-3
and he was running better types who were OR75+ types in later season including
Mac Love. The general quality of his runners in the race has tailed off.
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So, that's one 'stat' that Archers Road would have to reverse and Mr Channon
isn't a FTO win trainer. To a good approximation you can ignore all of
his debut runners in a season. The odd ones will win but they will be at
particular periods and often discernible with clues like the owner, market
support etc. Try this statistic and see how it sounds to you - in 2008
he had 50 (that's fifty) 2yos make their debut after June 3rd and how many
won first time? The answer is one. In 2007 he had just two debut winners
after May 14th with another 50ish juveniles. Hence the 'ignore them' approach.
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He gets debut winners at a few set times of the year. In very early season
he will get the odd accident in a worthless race, say by an OR60s horse
opposed by OR40s rabbits. He then gets more targeted debut winners in mid-April
and in a 2-3 week batch in May. These will be high class runners who can
win on natural ability but can be more primed and fitter/knowing than his
normal runner. 2008 was a good example with 4 debuts wins in a burst in
May by Lucky Leigh, Cerito, Orizaba & Please Sing who all ran in Group
races and two managed to win one.
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Number two is Bond Together and another early season regular in
David Evans as trainer. He gets his 2yos fit and ready for debut and the
better ones can win at longer odds. He was in the 2008 FTO P&L tracking
and made a small profit across the year. As is often the case he got an
early FTO win in the second race of the season and the better debuts came
in the first half of his debuts by date order. Avoid that tail of useless
ones and concentrate on the competitive ones he runs in earlier season
and he should provide debut wins. He has just a so-so record in the Brocklesby
in recent years but had the second in 2005 with a 3TO runner when it was
later in the season. His representative here is a half brother to two juveniles
that have won for him including Silver Wind who ran moderately in his Brocklesby.
One for any shortlist given a draw of 16 and the thought he ought to be
a usable one for the trainer. [He entered two others and Star Rover, a
son of Brocklesby winner Charlene Lacy, runs at Kempton].
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Paul Midgley entered two and runs Burtondale Boy. Mr Midgley is
an interesting story because he has had a large increase in 2yo runners
in the last two years and he seems to have changed his FTO approach. Before
2008 the debuts were poor and wins came on later runs with development.
Last year he had 2 debut winners in April and four winners from 20 runners.
Nearly all of the increase were very cheap 2yos with 14 costing less than
5,000gns including the four winners in the season. The earliest runners
were a mix of abilities and his Brocklesby runner not very good while his
four winners all made their debuts between April 12th to early May. A trainer
to watch for with early debuts to see whether one or two are good enough
to compete for the win but perhaps unlikely in this field from draw 8 and
more a sighter.
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Fourth down the list and we are back to another regular and THE regular
in this race. Bill (WGM) Turner has such a predictable approach to training
2yos you have mixed feelings about him. On one side it's comfortable and
reassuring to know exactly what a trainer is about, on the other hand you
have to keep trying new things to progress and failure might be part of
that. Progress tends to walk along in conjunction with an amount of foolishness.
Mr Turner is like the smallest one of three in the sketch and "knows his
place". Which is, to deal with cheap 2yos and owner breds and to win what
he can with them. This will mean having them ready for the first races
of the season and have them battle ready. They will have been doing fast
work before Christmas and paired trials for some time (John Gosden &
Michael Stoute's brains just wouldn't be able to compute what was going
on..). The best ones can win FTO in early season and the latest
of his 7 debuts winners 2002-8 was on April 4th with 5 before this year's
start date of March 28th.
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He's had a runner in the last 7 Brocklesby's and won three of them (2 with
FTOs and one STO when Lingfield had an earlier race). Of the other 4 runners
one placed (and won STO by the 5th of April) and three were unplaced and
none
won anything during the season. The message should be coming over pretty
loud. Watch out for his earliest runners in the next 2 weeks and if one
or two have some ability they can win but don't progress much. After that
he soon settles into his I-know-my-place role of trying to win sellers
and claimers with be-cheekpieced rabbits. If Could It Be Magic is
any good he ought to show it and make the first three from stall 18 with
5lbs off for his apprentice (another piece of Turner underdoggery syndrome
is he has to use apprentices on everything, if he had a horse capable of
winning the Dewhurst it would be running at Edinburgh in cheekpieces with
a good 7lb claimer on - just in case).
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Number 5 on the list and another interesting story with Richard Fahey and
Eight
Hours. The trainer was one of the stars of the FTO P&L tracking
last year with a huge profit from following his 5f debuts runners. He also
had 6f debuts winners (not his normal MO) to make a good profit backing
all his debuts. Now, there is a huge BUT coming when it comes to Eight
Hours and it isn't just that he's drawn 4. Is this horse an absolute natural
racehorse? The trainer's normal approach is that the earliest runners are
somewhat underdone and compete variably unless they are mentally precocious.
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The debut winners normally come in a batch for the trainer at some point
in May when he has had time to let them simmer. To confuse matters he won
the Newcastle edition of the Brocklesby in 2007 with Mister Hardy but that
horse was a natural and physically very precocious. He didn't have another
winner that year until into May. Last year his Brocklesby runner fitted
the template better and was out the back and proved a placer at best. He
had one April 16th debut winner in a woeful race in 2008 before the FTO
batch of successes started in early May. Not obvious shortlist material
from that draw.
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Another very unlikely winner at 6 with Hearts Of Fire for Pat Eddery.
In the three years with a licence he hasn't had a debut winner from 24
runners and only one place with everything else 5th or worse. In general
he doesn't have a good record with 2yos and has a below average 6-7% strike
rate in each year. On the plus side this is a very early start for him
which might indicate a 'natural' of some sort and the odd winners he has
had have been the first runners each year (aside from one for his old boss
Khalid Abdulla who being a major owner doesn't do March 2yos). One to assess
for signs of life by how he goes in the race.
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Mel Brittain has two running with horse #7 Heslington and Trade
Secret as number 15. Go back to the 1990s and Mr Brittain used to have
regular 2yo winners including debut winners in early season. After a few
years with very few horses 2007-8 has seen a big increase with a lot of
cheap horses which he owns himself. In 2007 the returns were dire and it
looked a complete vanity project. Apparently the stable had a virus that
year which caused the dreadful results. 2008 would support that theory
with better results from a smaller number of cheap ones.
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The really interesting point was that the four winners he had were 4 of
the first 6 to make their debut between March 22nd to April 19th. He entered
2 for the Brocklesby with Knavesmire finishing third and going on to win
twice up to Listed level. The other entry was Polish Pride who won FTO
at Musselburgh in early April. His four season winners either won or placed
FTO with wins at 11/1 and 25/1 and a 25/1 placer. Which means that although
both his runners are cheap buys they are probably the best end of what
he has and mostly ready to perform here. Trade Secret is better drawn although
he might be the second string with Alan Munro riding because Tyrone Williams
has long been associated with the stable. Worth checking which one runs
in the trainer's first colours on the day. Just on profile the best of
them would seem a lively each-way shot.
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Alan McCabe comes in with number 8 as Isle Of Ellis is the chosen
of his two entries and neither run for his employer Paul Dixon. Since he
took over at Mr Dixon's Haygarth House establishment he has made a solid
fist of training for a demanding owner (he's still there is the obvious
test since, like other supremos like Willie Mackay, Rob Lloyd, John Fretwell
et al, failure will soon see you made surplus, etc). His record with 2yos
is at least average and developing with the first winners coming earlier
in the season in each of his 3 years. The debuts overall are usually uncompetitive
although he had a couple of early season places last year to suggest he
may be adapting his approach (that's 'Adapt' Mr Turner...). He would need
to have become more of a ready-on-debut trainer for Isle Of Ellis to figure
although he is well drawn.
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Brian Ellison entered 3 and runs #9 Koo And The Gang and #21 with
the filly Lily Lenor. Mr Ellison has a mixed record with 2yos and
has run 7 at most in the last 10 years and none in three of those seasons.
He has never had a debut winner and just one place in the last 7 years.
Debut runs are typically 10-20lbs below the horses ability level.
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There are some trainers that leave B2yoR head shaking in puzzlement. What
is the plan? How are they going about trying to win races and improve their
strategy and tactics? Search as you may some trainers body of work is just
baffling. Clive Brittain's record is one of these type trainers as regular
readers will know and horse 10 brings us to another - Brendan Powell. Now,
this is nothing personal and Mr Powell comes across as a thoroughly decent
person on the racecourse. But, in another field, B2yoR would rather see
the surgery done by a highly organised bastard than the Hugh Grant of the
operating theatre. Bumble about in your own time, please.
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Pullyourfingerout, very apt, is going to have to be a special talent
to get involved from box 3 for Mr Powell and unusually good to win at all.
28 juveniles have run for him since 2001 without a win and he probably
never has had one in the turf season. A number of the 2yos have looked
ok types in Paddock review but not really fit. The fitness doesn't develop
with racing and the form levels displayed bounce around in a non-progressive
way that looks a bit random. Debuts are usually poor and at longer SPs.
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There is a brief niggle when you think why is this one running this early
for Mr Powell when he normally starts much later? Perhaps this one is a
bit of natural? Then the rational side of thought kicks in and you ponder
just how unlikely that is and the unlikeliness added to by the trainer's
records. You look back to 2005 when he last had an early debut and the
career of Irish Whispers has the usual ragged edges. Show some promise
on April 14th in a Newmarket maiden and then 4th STO in a Newbury race.
Convert that promise into a win? Of course not, five later runs and barely
beat a horse through to late season. Things happen for a reason.
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Nothing much to say about Reel Easy's trainer J.R Holt. A few poor
runs by a handful of 2yos and no pattern to draw on. The trainer of #12
Shark
Man hasn't really registered with B2yoR before either. Looking at his
record Mr McBride has had a few more 2yos in the last two seasons and the
wins and strike rate suggest he is doing an ok job. The debut's had tended
to be poor, perhaps masked by a lot of poor horses doing their best but
still looking poor, until a surprise FTO win last year. That was in October
though and the wins have tended to come after mid-season in previous years.
At 1,000gns another Early-or-Nothing (EON) try on on profile.
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We draw on to horse 13 and with Swilly Ferry we are on much safer
ground with Barry Hills, a good 2yo trainer and with a set MO. The general
outline for early season for Mr Hills is that he will select the odd 2yo
to run in early season because they are precocious and naturals. They wont
be the better class types but OR70s types of some sort typically. They
will usually place on debut and then win STO to set them up for a full
2yo career. He batches up the best of his early 2yos and runs them at the
Newmarket Craven and the Newbury Greenham Meetings in mid-April. Anything
he runs at those two meetings deserves attention and should be better than
an OR70s type.
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Like Mick Channon he isn't really a ready FTO trainer and the debut wins
come with the better types. Like Mr Channon he tends to batch these up
for certain periods. In this case the prestige meetings in April and then
for a pre-Royal Ascot trial patch in late May and early June. He had runners
in the Brocklesby in 2003 when the precocious, small and limited scope
filly Farewell To Arm was second and won next time. In 2005 he had River
Kintyre finish 4th before a STO win at Chester in May. It was that template
which made Mr Malodorous' run so puzzling last year. A lifeless unplaced
run followed by two dreadful efforts over 6f after a break. That wasn't
the Barry Hills we were expecting. Looking back to a stable tour early
last year Mr Hills said that Mr Melodious had run in the Brocklesby because
he had been "working great and had a great temperament". Since he
looked a thorough refusnik on the track probably one to put down as a horse
who fooled the trainer.
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Mr Hills entered two for the race and they were two of the most expensive.
Remember that on past MO they wont be the best he has for early season
because he would save those for Newmarket & Newbury. The other entry
was Red Jazz for his old friend Mr Arculli who has had many good 2yos with
him. If we look back to 2005 we can see how the Hill's mind works. Mr Arculli
had two early 2yos that year with River Kintyre being the OR75-80 type
that ran in the Brocklesby. the other was saved for Newmarket and was Red
Clubs who won the Coventry Stakes and Royal Ascot and an older Group 1
winner.
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Which means that from a good draw Swilly Ferry should get involved for
the places so long as he doesn't go all Mr Smelly on us but would typically
find one or two more primed for the day. He ought to be at least an OR75
type and capable of winning a maiden, probably STO. Similar comments for
Red Jazz when he makes his debut over the next 10 days or so. How good
this pair are would be some kind of indicator of how good the ones he is
saving up for mid April are. 2008 was not a good set by his standards.
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George More runs Take It To The Max as horse 14 and the trainer
has improved his record with 2yos greatly in the last two years. Before
that he would soup a few up for early season when they would place and
he could rarely convert that promise to wins. Something has happened in
2007 with 7 winners from 14 runners at a good strike rate. He has had a
debut winner in each year but they have been after the initial batch. The
early debuts have still been competent but needing runs to develop - perhaps
he is taking a more development approach. On profile this one ought to
be a usable OR60s type who could find a soft Northern race to run with
development.
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Mark Johnson's stable often has a few early runners and they tend to include
useful sprint 2yos and the best of them can win FTO. However, the stable
seems to need to play it's way into the season and wins before May are
unusual. He's 3/30 in April in the last four years at an average 10% strike
rate but below his 14-15% norm. The wins have been in mid to late April.
On pedigree Whippers Love has good chances of being a solid sprint
2yo which suggests he will be a winner but probably STO or 3TO after 5th-8th
debut.
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The other interesting horse is the filly Chicita Banana for trainer
George Baker. But for her draw she would be vying with the 'regular' trainers'
reps at the top of the profile to compete for a win. She is expensive at
60,000gns for this field and by a good sire who can get early season winners.
Owned by Harry Findlay (..that's ok Harry, stay over there, I can hear
you just fine anyway, as can everyone else...) so might be primed for debut.
The trainer was in his first season in 2008 and his only winner was with
his first runner in Excellerator. She was highly tuned for debut and won
a modest race comfortably. In general he turned his horses out fit and
mentally tightly wound and they were often sweaty and could boil over.
Which suggests that there is a good chance that Chicita Banana might be
whizzed up the day. That might be difficult to assess from the market because
the Findlay horses often shorten in price win or lose. The strength of
the support might help but that draw is likely to make things difficult.
She is due to be ridden by Mick Channon's apprentice whom Findlay also
has horses with.
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To quickly cover the other runners - Neville Bycroft (Baze Mac)
gets odd successes with his cheap 2yos and ability often shows up on debut
but hasn't had a debut winner. Phil McEntee (Black Baccara) gets
his horses very fit for early season and targets STO wins after short breaks.
This runner is typically cheap and one to assess perhaps for an AW seller
win. Linda Williamson had a big increase in 2yo runners in 2008 but no
winner from 14 runners. Her first two debuts in early season both placed
though but did not progress. One was a sibling of Grace Jicaro so
this one might be ready to show her best but unlikely to be good enough.
Finally to Hugh Collingridge who entered two for the race and runs Usquaebach.
This is another of those mixed stories in that he has only a few 2yo runners
but they tend to be ready FTO and he does get debut wins. Between 2004-6
he had 4 individual winners of which 3 won on debut and the other
was second and won STO. BUT, he hasn't had a runner before June in recent
years and the debut wins were much later in the season. Another who should
be primed to show most of what she can do on the day.
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KEMPTON 4:10
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A typical field for the race and a bigger field than usual. Lots of early
season regulars in the training ranks with plenty of previous runnners
in early season Kempton maidens. The cast list has not changed much since
the change from turf to Polytrack with the exception of an increased number
of Northern based horses. The obvious place to start, and very much the
right one given his history is with Richard Hannon who runs two with Black
Daddy ridden by Steven Drowne and Desert Auction by Pat Dobbs.
Unless Richard Hughes is one board (Hannon's son-in-law) it can be hard
to tell which is the first string on jockeys although you would think it
would be Desert Auction with Dobbs attached to the yard and Drowne a more
infrequently used option.
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Both horses have presentable 2yo pedigrees with Black Daddy the more obvious
5f 2yo being a sibling to two juvenile 5f winners for the Hannon stable
(both in much later season). Desert Auction is by the sire Desert Style
whom Hannon must have a soft spot since he has provided the trainer with
a number of 2yo Group winners. In 2005 it was Cool Creek and the filly
Souters Sister last year. Oh, and a certain Paco Boy didn't win a Group
race at 2yo but has done remarkably well since. Desert Auction is out of
a very stout dam who was by the strong staying influence Ela-Mana-Mou.
She did not make the racecourse until late in her 3yo season over 12f and
hasn't produced a winner. Which means that Desert Auction must take more
after the sire and is either pretty good or very slow.
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Now, Mr Hannon had a great 2008 with 2yos helped by a large increase in
runners and, unusually in these cases, managed to improve his winners to
runners ratio and keep the overall standards going. He has been at this
game a long time and uses a very predicatble plan throughout the season
which means that without even seeing this pair of horses we can make some
educated surmises about what class they are. We'll start by trying a few
predictions about how how many 2yos he will have run by around May 4th
this season. There will be :-
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15 of his 2yos will have run by May 4th then there will be a short break
until he introduces another one at the Ascot meeting on May 9th.
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There will be 2-3 debut winners in that 15 and they will match up closely
with the best of his early 2yos. There is a good chance these will run
at Royal Ascot and a solid chance one will be up to winning at Listed/Group
level.
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The first 10 to run will include 6-7 that win during the season plus a
seasoning of 3-4 that won't win and are out early because they are useless
or lack scope to develop. The odd one of these will be dropped to a seller
or claimer to win.
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The first 5-6 runners will include 2 or 3 of his best early 2yos who will
win more than one race and compete in higher level races. Typically the
first 3 to run will include a really good one, an average winner and a
duff one.
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Which side of the debut SP range of 8/1 to 10/1 a horse falls is often
a good indicator of what sort of ability they have. The earliest debuts
are often at shorter prices until the market gets a handle (again) on the
fact he doesn't 'win with everything' and the fields get bigger with some
runners with previous runs and form. In 2008 he started with 3 debut winners
and this cast a shadow across the whole of the period and only one horse
in the first 14 (by May 15th) started at more than 8/1 (25/1 for Group
winner Souters Sister who must have surprised the stable by how she developed
with racing). Remember the SP qualification is for predicting ability across
the whole season and not just for a win on the day.
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With that background alone you would guess that his pair of runners are
likely to be a good one and a moderate one and the better one might well
be pretty useful. We can make that seem even more likely if we consider
the types of horse he has run in these earliest maidens at Kempton :-
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2002 - Monsieur Boulangere, dual winner and sold to race in the USA. In
May he introduced the Norfolk Stakes (Royal Ascot Group 3) winner Baron's Pit at the
course to a surprise defeat).
-
2003 - Signor Panettiere won FTO (beating Miss Brookie who is the
dam of Lady Lion who runs here for the same connections as her mother
so we are going around the same loops, homoclinally). A speedball who
didn't fulfill his potential.
-
2004 - Canton won FTO in March, won his next two starts.
-
2005 - Godfrey Street & Cool Creek both made very early debuts at Kempton
and got beaten by inexperience before going on the be Group winners. In
May he started out the high class Assertive (still kicking around in Group
races in 2008) at the course who also got beaten first time.
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2006 - Gilded beaten on her early April debut and won the Queen Mary at
Royal Ascot as she developed.
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2007 - Fat Boy won the fourth 2yo race of the year and proved to be
his best sprint 2yo
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2008 - None.
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So, whatever else is in the race we should take note of Desert Auction
for the day and for the future, or perhaps Black Daddy.
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What else is there of interest in the race? The pair of Bill Turner and
David Evans both live up to their get-them ready-early by having runners
here as well as in the Brocklesby. Mr Turner has often run horses for this
owner on the AW at Kempton & Lingfield in early season and has got
a solid number of his debut winners with them. He has won a version of
this race with Lady Filly in 2004 at 20/1 so Lady Lion will show most of
what she is capable of in the race. Mr Evans is another who gets regular
longer priced debut winners in early season so that Star Rover from
a good draw should be prominent for much of the race.
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B2yoR regulars will know of our appreciation of the talents of the Linda
Stubbs training team and they run Bronze Beau here rather than in
the Brocklesby. They have a very good record of getting winners with cheap
2yos, multiple winners and high class ones at that. They won the Brocklesby
in 2004 and ran the later Listed winner Saxford in it last year. Over the
winter on the AW they claimed Five Star Junior off Bryan Meehan and then
won three more races with him before a good run in a Listed race where
he could have finished placed but for missing the break. FTO wins are rare
though and their 2yos are primed to win STO so one to watch for promise
on the day and follow to it's next run is the most likely.
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You would presume that Roger Curtis' runner Bould Mover is actually
a Paul Blockley project of some sort. Since the latter named trainer lost
his licence (again..) in late 2008 his string seems to have moved mostly
intact to the Curtis yard. Let us imagine that Mr Blockley still has some
input and this one is owned by people who had horses with him. Mr Blockley
could get debut winners with good ones but he often souped them up for
debut and the market would tell you what to expect. Recently the earliest
runners have been moderate ones having a quiet intro before finding their
level later.
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Kirsty's Boy represents Stan Moore and another regular in the early
season races in the south and has regular Brocklesby runners and this one
was entered for that. That would suggest he's an OR64-72 type in the long
term and his 2yos often need a lot of runs to get their win. His runner
in the Brocklesby last year finished a promising 5th before needing 7 more
goes to win. In general the stables wins come after mid season and early
season win fall into two types. One are targeted seller wins on STO runs
for a rabbit after a debut in a tougher race. In recent years he has managed
a couple of early season debut wins with OR80ish types whose form then
tailed off rapidly (unlike his normal MO). You would guess this will be
a mildly promising 5th to 7th effort and then lots of runs to try to get
a win inlater season.
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Kevin Ryan runs the cheap filly Out The Ring and he has a very recognisable
approach with his earliest runners. His first batch of runners will typically
be a group of small, compact, neatly made types that he can work hard to
get ready for early season. These wont be ready to win a strong race FTO
but will be targeted at a STO win in as weak a northern maiden as
he can find (and, my word, that can mean weak). If you look at these types
in Paddock Review they are all the same size and shape. The ones with a
bit more meat on them can perhaps develop a bit through the season but
the others will fall further behind the required standard as the season
progresses. His first 5 runners in 2008 were typical of this approach with
4 of them never managing to win despite early placed runs and one winning
a claimer. The better horses he has he seems to debut in batches through
the May to June period of the year with the odd earlir debut win with a
natural. An unlikely winner despite the forecast favourite she was in some
of the early shows.
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Peter Grayson runs Needwood Dancer and he falls into the Clive Brittain/Brendan
Powell headshaking category. She'll need to be Group class to win for that
trainer. What to make of Rod Millman's recent form with 2yos? He runs True
Red here and very early season FTO wins in these sort of races were
very common (Makabul won this race in 2005 when he had 5 debut winners
by early April. It's been all downhill since then in all measures and his
worst strike rate since he started in 2008 and 1 debut winner in the last
3 years. His runner here would be near the top of any shortlist a few years
back despite his cheap profile but one to watch given the recent past.
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Which brings us to the most expensive runner with Paul Cole's Red Avalanche.
His sire Verglas had a much better year in 2008 as he found his feet
after a return to Europe and that included early 5f wins. Mr Cole's earliest
runners are normally a mix of moderate types who struggle to win with the
odd OR70s type maiden winner mixed in. His debut wins these days normally
come with his best 2yos and his earliest runners tend to need the debut
to prime them for STO wins. His earliest debuts last year included a Brocklesby
5th who won his next two runs and a filly beaten on debut (by a Davids
Evans soup-up) who won her next 5 races including a Group event in France.
So, an unlikely winner and more a 3rd-5th type and win next time.
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In summary, in an ideal world Desert Auction (or Black Daddy) will be a
really good one and be able to win FTO despite being well short of his
best. If he isn't then the Turner & Evans pair are solid alternatives.
Without a strong showing from any of those three it becomes a very open
race and Kirsty's Boy becomes a possible.
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