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"Ahh, they're only babies......". No, they are not. They are
teenagers with as much range of physical development, personalities, precociousness
and nous as any bunch of humans of the same age. Persisting in using the
term 'Babies' does at least two things wrong. It undersells the amount
and depth of differences you are going to see amongst the 2yos. Some are
very mature and naturals whilst others are perpetually flustered and frightened
of their own shadows to make an obvious point (see Hearts Of Fire by new
sire Firebreak in the Brocklesby for a natural regardless of the trainer..).
The phrase also scrambles your own view of the task that is going to pesent
it to yourself and probably tells the rest of us more about the person
using it than we would wish to know. For the cooing 'Baby' types try thinking
about this way. You are going to put in charge of a class of 13-14yos in
school for the day. Let yourself walk into that task with the "Ahh,
they're babies.." mindset and see how much control you have over the
situation...... There now, doesn't that feel better. Forward.
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Some thoughts on the Kempton race to follow in paddock terms relating to
trainers - more repeating patterns within patterns to go with their MOs
with 2yos. The following link opens up a 'Virtual
Paddock' of the 11 runners at Kempton with the most informative pictures
from the day. Starting with the Hannon pair the first point to note is
how relatively relaxed and clam both the trainers runners are. No spooking,
baulking or prancing as with many of the others. This is pretty typical
of a Hannon runner on debut and you could name a range of trainer who turn
out taut, sweating, spooky nuisances regularly. The difference is a real
reflection of the preparation at their stables and what they are trying
to achieve. It also links to the fact that Hannon runners don't win on
debut unless better class or are naturals in softer races because he is
looking for them to have a relaxed intro that they enjoy. Not be wound
up by the time they enter the pre-parade ring and wrung out at the end
of proceedings.
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Both are pretty typical of his early runners in size and shape. Shorter
models but with above average build and some extra relative depth to the
body in front (the 'heartroom'). Just a hint that Black Daddy is
less relaxed than and the picture shows him starting to think-about-it.
On pure paddock review termed Black Daddy had a bit more size and quality
but with a niggle about his 'front' (head, neck & shoulders) being
oversized compared to his back half. Desert Auction is very 'up
behind' and this shows if you look at how high the top of his rump is (the
sacro-iliac joint area) compared to where the strap around his belly goes
across his back (at the back of the withers). The long bones in the leg
stop growing in horse from around 2 years on from the ground up. If he
isn't level then he is either still growing or he is just going to be that
set-up, Whichever, it doesn't give him the best angle and flexibility to
move his back legs to strike and drive on the ground and interact with
the timing of the movement of his front legs. He will use the energy he
can generate less efficiently that he would otherwise.
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The preview for the race raised the fact that the pair were likely to be
a duff one and average-or-better-winner one. Neither looked obviously moderate
(able to blag an early season place at best sort) and neither looked superior.
The difficulty in wedging the pair in the 'Good' & 'No Good' pigeonholes
continued with the general surroundings to the race. Although Pat Dobbs
is attached to the stable Steve Drowne rode their winner in the one of
the good class 3yo handicaps that preceded the 2yo race. So perhaps Black
Daddy was the better one? The market seemed to suggest that with him supported
from 9/2 in to 100/30 while Desert Auction drifted a bit to 5/1 from the
same starting point.
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In the race Black Daddy got squeezed between two runners just after the
start and his inexperience seemed to kick in (perhaps he backed off mentally)
and he never got going. Minor progress in the straight from 8th to 6th
(two faders causing that rather than him making any move forward) and a
kind intro. On paddock looks he is better than he showed and should improve
well next time and ought to be an average winner. Desert Auction ran much
better and got to third to the bend and finished in that position (the
first three were always the first three in the race in the same positions).
He made a bit of an effort in the straight to look as if he might get to
2nd but faded from the furlong pole (again typical given the way Hannon
prepares his horses). The paddock guess is that he is actually a superior
version of the 'moderate' one and has an ok chance of winning a minor event
in early season.
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Bould Mover is a likeable type and ought to be capable of an OR70s
win. He was wearing a 'Roger Curtis' rug but he's a Paul Blockley 2yo to
look at and in his demeanour on the day. Unlike Hannon's methods Mr Blockley
turns out a lot of debut 2yos looking bouncy and up-for-it in the prelimiaries.
He is presumably trying to put some fighting spirit into them. He's compact
in length and a little leggy for his size but neat and strongly made. A
good buy for 3,000gns and a good chance of being a winner. Unlike the garbage
that Mr Blockley (sorry, Mr Curtis) tends to run in early season this looked
like a usable early 2yo in the Lesley's
Choice mould from 2008. A taller model than her and ought to be at
least as good. A promising run in the race to get from 7th to 4th and ought
to be ok next time.
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Another 3,000gns purchase next with the Stubbs' Bronze Beau. A less
powerful model than Bould Mover but very neatly put together and probably
and OR60s winner of sort. Very well prepared and turned out and fit but
with scope to tighten up for the run (compared to say the winner Star Rover).
The trainer ran Five Star Junior to to finish 2nd of OR97 (having been
claimed over the winter) and he looked terrific and a bigger stronger version
of the neat shape Bronze Beau is. Go back to 2008 and Saxford,
who cost 1,000gns and won a Listed race, is another neatly made one but
a bit bigger, rangier and more powerful than Bronze Beau. He showed the
same fiery, competitive attitude as Five Star Junior did on the day and
the same sculpted look to the muscles like a text book. The Stubbs' positives seems
to be a mix of what to buy but then, as importantly, the preparation at
home both mentally & physically.
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Stan Moore's approach has been commented on before and remember that he
tends to buy heavily built models and feed them up well and they often
don't look that fit. His wins with 2yos tend to come in later season and
many of his juveniles get their first win after a lot of runs. This is
unusual and with most trainers if the ability is there they will get the
first win in the first three runs. Try looking at the picture of Kirsty's
Boy & comparing it to Star Rover (David Evans is Moore's exact
opposite in that he buy light framed, narrow bodied ones, doesn't feed
them up and has them fit to go). The Moore horse just doesn't look fully
'fit'. No muscle sculpting here, no easily visible indent around the outer
edge of his buttocks and the hint of a belly. As is often the case with
Mr Moore there's plenty of bulk been bought for your guineas but can it
shift itself, that is when it is finally fit enough. He runs like he looks
in that he starts well enough and gets involved in 5th but he's outpaced
on the bend and fades from 5th to 8th in the straight (fitness related).
You imagine that he should be fitter next time and capable of a place but
wouldn't be surprised if he took some time to win.
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Mr Moore is a very good example of trainers buying the same type. Here
is a picture of early season runner - Riflessione
- from 2008 on his second run, so in placer mode and a bit fitter with
the indentation around his buttock showing more. But, the same bulky build
and similar size and shape. Go back to 2005 and he ran a horse called Twinned
in the equivalent race and exactly the same type and shape and story. Early
places and struggled to win.
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More deja vu with Lady Lion who couldn't be anything other than a Bill
Turner 2yo on her turn-out. Solid size and solid build and a mature way
of holding herself. Big blue bandages just in case you couldn't work it
out anyway. Here's a picture (a blurry one) of her Mother
when she ran in the equivalent race in 2003 and the same size and build
type, plaited tail and way she holds herself (aided by the fitness conditioning
the Turner 2yos will be well forward with). Just to show it's the trainer
rather than family resemblance here's Gone
Hunting who was Turner's rep in the race in 2008. Bulky build, plaited
tail, bandages, the works. How that horse developed in the season show
how the Turner underdog syndrome affects his choice of races. In the previous
picture he looks a bit 'square' both in front and behind and powerful but
not obviously athletic. Win an early race then stick him in claimers is
the Turner MO (which he did and lost him). But he had blossomed into a
much more promising physical type before he got to claimers and here is
a Picture
of him at Lingfield in Mid-season. A much more taking proposition with
some 'flow' to his movement and lines to add to the bulky power. He was
running off OR85 at Kempton yesterday but poorly because it was Peter Grayson
who claimed him so the full, possible, extent of the error of letting him go by Turner
is unlikely to be demonstrated.
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Lady Lion belied her mature outlook and preparation by sitting down in
the stalls and having to be taken out and withdrawn. On size and with the
scope to tighten up for a more work and/or a race she has good prospects
of winning and early race and getting into the OR66-71 range.
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Peter Grayson brought Needwood Dancer out late and an OR early 60s
type at best. Similar compact body shape to Bould Mover while more leggy
but narrow bodied and lacking that ones power. Likely to be a case of move-along-nothing-to-see-here
with him and the trainer certainly colours that view in.
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Out The Ring was supported as favourite and a subtlety that the
preview missed was that she is owned by John Fretwell who likes 2yo racing &
debut winners. When Bryan McMahon was winning all the early season juvenile
races a lot of them were for Mr Fretwell in his Red & Black colours
days before buying the single colour lime silks at auction. Since he fell
out with Eoghan O'Neill at the start of last season he has spread his 2yos
around other trainers to add to Ed McMahon (Bryan's lad) including Kevin
Ryan, Clive Cox & Peter Chapple-Hyam (one of the few that 'fell in'
with him in the season he fell out with most people). Mr Fretwell was at
the course with entourage so this was perhaps a little more than just a
normal Ryan early season runaround debut?
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Well, nothing out of the ordinary about Out The Ring and a typical early
rep for his sire Acclamation. Ran well in 2nd and an OR70s type that should
win an early race but not an obvious long term prospect.
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Which brings us to what might be the most interesting horse in the group.
Paul Cole tends to run either garbage or 'Well Grown' types in early season
and Northern
Tour who ran in the Brocklesby for him last year would be a good example
of the latter type that can win. The picture of that horse from early April
last year shows a very mature horse mentally as well. Red Avalanche
came across as a bigger, well grown 2yo, with good scope to tighten up
and solid chances of being a, OR80 type winner. Very powerful behind although
still needing to strengthen in front. On the negative side he was the biggest
'baby' in attitude terms in the group, scared of everything, clinging to
his handler and so on. He went down as a paddock positive for the future
who would need the run to grow up. Even that view didn't match up with
just how monumentally clueless he was in the race and you wondered what
he had shown Mr Cole (other than being well grown) to be running now. The
only positive on performance would be he never got adrift and was on the
back of the group at the end despite being a lummox. But, one who should
develop well and has the scope to improve.
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The winner was David Evans' Star Rover who gave a typical early
season performance for one of his well prepared 2yos with ability. Leading
all the way and not stopping because he had a fitness edge to add to the
guile. He's a small, narrow type that doesn't carry much meat and doesn't
have much scope to improve. The big positive with him was his movement
and he had a well controlled, rangy movement behind. The picture shows
him after the race and captures a bit of his natural poise in movement.
But, a typical early type for the trainer that he will find a second race
(early Novice event or later Nursery) for but not one who is going on to
high class. Probably OR70s at 2yo and dropping down through the 60s at
3yo. Try looking at this picture of Smalljohn
who ran in early 2008 for the same trainer & owner to add to the evidence
for trainers and types. He couldn't win an early 2yo race and broke his
maiden in a seller (albeit the most valuable one of the season by a comfortable
margin). He ended up with an OR of 79 (he won a seller by 5 lengths plus
and a normal seller winner should be around OR60-62 by the BHA's handicappers
book and hence the OR79. He couldn't win off that and he won a seller after
that. How would you think Star Rover would compare looking at them now?
[One point to note was that Star Rover hung right over to the stands' rail
which was probably an advantage on the day. The far rail can often be 'live'
and a plus at Kempton but it looked dead on the day and at least 5 of the
races on the card were won by the finishers who got most over towards the
stands' side and most of the last closing happened on that strip.]
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In a small field True Red was the shortest although with some build.
Young to look at and less than neatly put together. Out early because there
is no point waiting rather than because of demonstrated ability wou would
think. Not one to follow and 'hello sellers'.
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