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A auction race for fillies at Lingfield with a small field. Unlike
maiden races with all the horses, of the same sex, carrying the same weight
the fillies here carry different weights depending upon how much they cost
on their latest trip through the sales ring. The Class of the race sets
up the upper limit of sales price which can run in the race to try to keep
the races competitive. Horses which were retained by their owners at the
sales, i.e. by them or their agents bidding the price up against others
(a dubious practice but allowed), can run as if they were sold on. Owner
breeders will often put their horse through the sales so that they can
qualify to run in these sort of events.
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The weight range here is only 6lbs (6lbs equals 2 lengths at 5f) ranging
from 8st 4lbs for Secret Rose who was retained for a 'Meat Money'
bid of £600 up to 8-10 for Leleyf (€35,000) & My
Mandy (£26,000). While there are exceptions a horse that cost
£600 shouldn't be up to competing with one that cost 20 to 30 times
more at just a 6lbs difference and this sort of race will often have a
lot of garbage in that will never win a race of any sort and the better
prospects for a usable filly ought to be at the top of the market. The
equivalent race last year - Result
- was run on turf at Warwick with 15 runners and a straight maiden. The
winner of that race was the second most expensive filly in the field at
just 5,000 guineas which makes these field look regal by comparison.
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The winner of the race was a David Evans' early season debut whizz-up (like
Star Rover this year) who won a Novice soon after and then ran in better
races with no success as her lack of physical development saw her overtaken
by the average. The second was the Paul Cole trained percolaor who had
been retained for 2,000gns at the sales but had developed well and failed
for lack of fitness on the day. She went on to be a Group winner in France
later. They were well clear of the rest of the field that produced seller
quality victories from 13 horses with the 3rd beaten off OR52 in a nursery
by season end. Grisly stuff and a useful reminder how empty early season
races can be of quality, how the better fillies finish up front, of how
only the rare horse (like Percolator) develops unusually well from the
sales and how the sources of the winners is often from the usual sources
(Evans, Cole, Channon & Brisbourne) in that field.
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The field for this race is much smaller than that Warwick affair but with
more prospects of future relevance in profile. Secret Rose runs
for Bill Turner who has had a 6th in the Brocklesby who led to halfway
before fading and Lady Lion was withdrawn at the start at Kempton. She
didn't look fully ready and the Doncaster runner either wasn't good enough
or did not see the race through fully. His debut winners tend to have a
bit of OR70+ quality and nothing in her profile says she is that so she
will probably come up short even if she leads and knows her job best. Stan
Moore runs two and Emma Jean Lass looks the first string over French
Connection on jockeys unless Liam Keniry cannot do 8-4. Either way
they would be unlikely winners given what we know about his MO. If one
of them is better the market might be some help if they get below 4/1 but
he had Lois Darlin beaten at 9/2 in the Warwick race last year and she
proved very limited.
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Michaelmas Daisy runs for Amy Weaver who is in her second season
and has only run a pair of 2yos. One won STO dropped to a seller after
an unplaced debut and perhaps this is one in a similar mould where the
type of race for it's second run will be informative. Patteresa Girl
runs for the Stubbs and was relatively expensive by their standards
at 8,000 guineas. On the other hand she is the fourth full sibling, all
by Auction House, and the previous ones cost 13,000gns (solid 6f 2yo winner),
66,000gns (good 7f 2yo sold on to the US for 145,000) and 60,000gns (for
an unplaced filly). If this one only cost 8,000 with those relations she
probably is pretty small but if the Stubbs bought her she is likely to
be neatly made and well prepared. But, the stable tend to target STO wins
after an educational intro as with Bronze Beau who was 5th at Kempton on
Saturday.
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Which means the profile shortlist for the winner comes from Leleyf,
My Mandy & Victorian Art. The first runs for Mick Channon
who gets only the odd debut winners but one place he does get them is in
soft AW races in Lingfield in early season. This one is owned by the Box
41 partnership who have supplied one of those Lingfield debut winners and
rate as 'mates' for the stable. Given her price and a good pedigree to
produce a 5f AW winner early in the season and she has a lot of positives.
His first runner of the season ran very well in the Brocklesby (2nd with
25/1 shot Archers Road) so she ought to make the places. But, the positives
listed here wont have escaped the market and she is likely to be at an
non-value price.
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The other pair are more interesting stories because they both represent
trainers who are not normally found in this type of race. We saw with Pat
Eddery's win in the Brocklesby that early runners for stables who normally
go quiet with their juveniles can mean a natural racehorse who can win
on innate talent. It can also mean a physically very limited one going
for it only, very narrow, window of opportunity to win a race. But, neither
My Mandy nor Victorian fit that model overall and seem more likely to be
here because they can run a bit and the test is more whether the trainer
can get them ready.
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The answer with Victorian Art is '"Yes" and Mr Magnusson used to be a notable
FTO debut winner trainer. He has backed off with debuts in recent seasons
though and used a more development approach. The real oddity is why is
he running a filly that cost €10,000 at all? Of the 11 juveniles he
has run the last 4 season as many as 10 cost more than 60,000gns and the
'cheap' one a piffling $32,000 (not sold failing to meet the reserve).
Now he fetches up here on March 30th with a cheapo filly part owned by
a hugely wealthy Art dealer. Mr Magnusson is privately very rich having
sold his 1,000 employee business in Sweden some years ago and his 'East
Wind Racing' banner includes one of the Guys from ABBA who presumably isn't
'embarrased' either. So, what is this all about?
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My Mandy is another interesting "Why here? Why now?" story because Ian
Williams hasn't made his name training 2yos, or even on the flat. He has
handled a Grand Total of 3 juveniles and only one of those made it's debut
for him (the two last year were both claimed to arrive with him). So, we
really know nothing about whether he can get a horse ready to win first
try. But, he entered two for the Brocklesby with My Mandy the cheaper of
the two (the other was Duke Of Rainsford who cost £60,000 and presumably
not an early season rabbit either). Both are owned by Mr Koukash (Grey
Colours with a light Star) so we should perhaps presume Mr Williams would
be slightly concerned that he made a good show with these new 2yo opportunities.
If you were Mr Koukash then would you want a half fit, gormless nag blundering
around at the back?
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In summary Secret Rose is quite likely to lead for a lot of the way but
it would be a surprise to see her be good enough to hold off one of the
better fillies even if they have less racecraft. Leleyf is an obvious alternative
but probably poor value. The Stan Moore pair don't really appeal and the
market would be at too short a price if it was indicating one of them were
ok (and still probably wouldn't be fit enough to win). Patteresa Girl ought
to run with promise but the Stubbs' really so seem more interested in getting
it spot on for the second outing. The more interesting options suffer from
lack of info to be sure what is going on but the Paddock Review would be
very useful to fit into the model.
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