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A normal looking edition of the early season Folkestone maiden and
four trainers who regularly take part with Mick Channon, Bill Turner, Stan
Moore & Rod Millman. You could make that five if we assume Bould Mover
is Paul Blockley as much as Roger Curtis. The results for the last three
years - 2006, 2007
& 2008 - show
that it is normally smaller field and thin on quality overall but with
the odd better type from major 2yo trainers. The bigger field this year
caused by four unusual representatives with two from Paul Midgley being
the most notable. He has hardly had a debut south of Pontefract over the
year and the odd exception have been on the AW at Southwell & Wolverhampton.
Hugh Collingridge has turned up two early 2yos to run when he doesn't normally
start until June and Phil McEntee is back from his 'Blockley' moment.
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The bigger field is an opportunity to mention the stands' rail bias at
Folkestone. In a 5 runner field of mixed ability it wouldn't have much
effect but with a 10 runner field it might force some horse wider than
necessary and make the difference. In 2007 one Jamie Spencer found that
to his cost and Silver Guest (the best horse in the race couldn't circle
the field via centre track having got boxed in on the rail. [What?, Jamie
Spencer getting in a less than ideal position through always wanting to
be too far out the back and then not quite being able to make up the ground
because of the unnecessary difficulties than ensue. Fancy that.]
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The rail bias can vary in strength at different meetings but it always
appears to be some sort of advantage to be on the rail. When it's in full
vigour it over-rides every other consideration - form, paddock review,
run styles wont matter much. Whatever can get to rail first will win. Try
looking at the results June 3rd meeting their last year to get a feel for
it's effect. Mark Prescott had a 33/1 juvenile winner at that meeting which
owed most of the win to the rail run.
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Which means that Bould Mover is in a good spot in stall 1 and has
already run. The Kempton race he ran in was taken along at a solid pace
from the start by the ready & nippy pair of Star Rover and Out The
Ring. It was also around a tight right hand bend which put extra stress
on those less aware, fit and conditioned than the leading pair. Bould Mover
made a solid start and was going ok in around 5th to the first bend when
he ran a bit too freely and his jockey hauled him back off the heels of
Kirsty's Boy. That cost him 1-2 lengths at just the wrong time when he
needed to be balanced and going forward around the bend.
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He didn't look that well suited to the bend and the jockey, as they often
doing having told a horse to go more slowly the second before, started
bustling him along (if you were the horse you could well be asking "What
do you want?", is it stop or go). Once in the straight and balanced he
got himself from 7th to fourth past the faders and put some distance on
the horses behind. On the plus side he was still going forward at the finish.
All of which would make you think that on a straight course with no bends
and on slightly softer turf rather than quickish polytrack he should be
able to perform better. The niggle is that he will find something plain
quicker but he sets a good standard, is well drawn and should be keeping
at it later in the race.
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The initial tentative estimate B2yoR has given to his run at Kempton is
14 and he probably would win this race if he can run to 30+ and might only
need high 20s. Given the preceding discussion this looks a strong possibility
and a stiff standard for a newcomer. Star Rover got a rating of 38 and
his runner up Out The Ring 26 who were both on debut so there are better
newcomers who can compete. There is no 2yo race on Wednesday and, time
permitting, the 'Preview' will be a brief overview of different ways of
scaling the 2yo ratings. For example, if Star Rover doesn't run again until
August in a Nursery (2yo handicap race) then what Official Rating (OR)
will the BHA handicapper give him? If we ignore the time of year of his
win, as the BHA guy (Matthew Tester) will do, then he is a "Class 4
maiden winner by four lengths..". This is going to get him OR79 at
least and probably into the low 80s. Bould Rover was around 25 rating points
behind him so perhaps ran to an OR55. The BHA man will be looking to rate
an average winner of this kind of race around OR75 so can Bould Rover run
to that level? The paddock notes that B2yoR got suggest this is reasonable
as a 2yo level by after mid-season in BHA terms.
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The next obvious stop is Alphacino given that Mick Channon has made
a quicker start, in positive results terms, to the season than normal.
He had the 25/1 second in the Brocklesby and the winner of the fillies'
race at Lingfield yesterday. In a typical year he would expect to win the
Lingfield race but his Brocklesby runner to be less prominent (how strong
was the race?). If you cut Alphacino in half he would have "I'm Mick
Channon through and through" imprinted lengthways. Mr Channon runs
his own breeding operation from Norman Court Stud and keeps his mares and
a number of his own stallions there (who usually ran for him). Mr Channon
owned & bred Alphacino's dam using Fraam (one of his in-house stallions).
His sire is Hunting Lion who ran for Channon and is kept to cover the odd
mare at Norman Court and has a solid record at producing 5f 2yo winners
aided by Channon training many of them. Hunting Lion was by Piccolo, Channon
trained again, and so it goes on. Having bred Alphacino he has passed it
on to a partnership made up of his mates who use the Lord Ilsley pub near
the stables. Welcome to his world.
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He is well drawn and if you believe Mr Channon has his horses more forward
than usual then the question is whether he is good enough. It didn't take
Channon much money to retain him as a foal (perhaps so he could run in
Auction races) and we don't know how he has developed since. On balance
you would suspect he would be an OR60s type in the long term on pedigree
and running well below that level FTO. To compete to win today he would
need to be a better model perhaps as much as OR80+. That seems unlikely
and regression to the mean ought to kick in soon and he will start introducing
less able/natural ones than the pair we have seen.
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Stan Moore runs two again and just when you think his 2yos this year wont
be that ready for debut both fillies were backed at each-way prices at
Lingfield and the Keniry ridden one just got reeled in by Channon's Leleyf.
He runs a pair here with Island Express (Morris) & Maoi Chinn
Tire (Keniry). The latter was entered for the Brocklesby so might be
the better of the pair. The trainer won the race in 2006 with a newcomer
that was strongly supported so the better of the pair might be ok and the
market a help. On pedigree and sales price neither really appeals and MCTire
is poorly placed in the stalls.
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Rod Millman's troubles were covered on Saturday and his runner there got
involved (knew what was required) but faded against horses just too good
for her. Prior to 2007 trying to spot which of the Millman early season
debuts were the good ones and would win at a good price was a real part
of early season. He hasn't had many decent horses in the last two years
and that has coincided with the absence of debut wins. There was also evidence
that after his 2005 efforts with 5 wins from 6 runs by early April he had
stepped back with the preparation. Roi De Vitesse ought to be a
usable one given the early debut for the trainer and has a solid pedigree
for an early season 2yo. On balance, one to let beat you perhaps rather
than looking for the Millman special at present.
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Bill Turner hasn't made much of show with his two runners to date and the
early season winners he gets tend to be with OR7Os types at least and not
the cheapo fillies like Anjomarba. Another to pass on in a race
with some better profiles. Black Baccara would fit into the same category
as a cheap filly who will be well prepared but very vulnerable to something
with more oomph.
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So, where are we? Bould Mover seems a good profile and if he were 6/1 as
per some of the early tissues then a great each-way prospect. Channon,
Moore & Millman all get odd debut winners in early season with better
types but Millman needs to prove he is out of the decline. Moore's better
runner would show up in the market but neither are taking types on general
profile. Your view on Alphacino depends on whether you think Channon has
his whole string forward. Anything else among the other three?
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The answer has to in the affirmative, circumstantially. Paul Midgley's
improved record with 2yos was covered on Saturday and we should be looking
for a surprise debut winner from him. His Brocklesby runner went poorly
after a slow start but he ran a duff one in the race in 2008 and his debut
winners came at lesser venues (and Folkestone certainly fits that bill).
Why he should bring his horses here? Has he moved from Yorkshire over the
winter? Perhaps he has his horses ready and want to get them running. On
jockeys Three Good Friends looks the better of the two over Mrs
Jones And Me, although not that well drawn. Given the surroundings
this pair, plus Alphacino are top of the list to assess in paddock review
for how they can compete against Bould Mover.
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Hugh Collingridge was also mentioned on Saturday where his Brocklesby runner
was well beaten. He gets regular debut winners but they have all been after
mid-season and he hasn't run a horse before June in recent seasons. Along
with the run at Doncaster he still hasn't proved he can get one ready for
early season.
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