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"The market will probably be the best guide...". Read the
summaries of individual horses in a publication like the "Racing Post"
before their debuts and this hopeful phrase will appear in a notable number
of them. The belief that the movement of the prices will tell you what
is going on with an untried field of 2yos is pretty widespread. It is an
incredibly blunt tool overall and very close to useless in the form Frank
Carter and his colleagues use in their paper. The market can be a guide
but the hints will be subtle even when they are there. The level of the
prices matters & not just the movement, time of year can make a difference
and whether the movement is early or late. You won't see that covered.
It is actually code for "...I haven't got anything useful to say, your
guess is as good as mine (despite the fact I am being paid to know about
the subject...)".
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Four races gone and three won by horses at 12/1 (twice) & 20/1. The
other drifted from 3/1f to 4/1 to second favourite despite being trained
by Mick Channon who has also had a second with a horse at an unusually
high 25/1 FTO for his yard. Stan Moore has had four horses 'punted' at
each-way prices and all have bungled the break (why back a horse when Mr
Moore isn't drilling them in the basics?). Three have been well beaten
and one almost won. All of the long priced winners have been for non-punting
stables so the market will not have any particular input although the minor
support for Pat Eddery's Hearts Of Fire at 12/1 was a minor hint.
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Which brings us to the Leicester race which has a likeable set-up
and their ought to be enough weight in those near the head of the market
to forestall a double priced SP for the winner. The obvious place to start
is with that 25/1 runner-up for Channon with Archers Road. He looked
a small, ready natural at Doncaster and broke well and was taken right
handed across the front of the field immediately to lead the field for
a lot of the race not far off the stands' rail. Other than the winner very
few saw the race out properly and Archers Road stalled inside the final
furlong but was still clear in 2nd at the line with nothing closing
out of the pack. The time seemed solid and the BHA guy would probably say
that he ran to at least the high 70s on the OR scale.
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Which means he turns up here with a good profile and looks a natural runner.
But he is beatable because a good debut runner can reach he level. He was
beaten by one at Doncaster and Star Rover probably ran to a similar level
with his Kempton win. We'll return to the strength of the opposition further
on but let's use a few stats to put the wind up his supporters a little.
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A good question would be why he was 25/1 at all? In the last four
years he hasn't had an early debut that has started at more than 20/1 and
the number in double figures is a handful. With one exception those few
double figure debuts have been limited horses and minor winners at best
and not consistent with what Archers Road appeared to be at Doncaster.
You imagine we saw most of what Archers Road is capable of FTO and he probably
hasn't got much improvement left. Leicester is an entirely different track
with it's quick downhill section and uphill climb to the last furlong.
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On top of that is the niggle of Channon's record in recent years with STO
juveniles off a short break. He's 1 from 23 since 2006 with 2yos running
off a break of 7 days or less. Some of those have been limited types getting
through their qualifying runs for handicaps quickly but not all. Go back
to 2003 and the high class 2yo Mac Love finished 4th in the Brocklesby
and was having his 3rd run when beaten in this race (by a useful Michael
Bell newcomer). In 2007 Silver Guest, another useful 2yo who took his time
winning, was beaten in this race at 8/15f for the trainer 9 days after
his debut effort. He didn't handle the slopes. So, Archers Road should
set a good standard but can be beaten and how he runs will be a good indicator
of the strength of the Brocklesby form. If he leads all the way for a clear
win then the OR85+ for the winner seems a good call. If he appears to run
his race but stalls in the last furlong to the passed by some bigger kit
then he probably isn't an OR79 in the long term.
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On profile there are a couple of other runners with the capacity to run
to a level to beat the Channon horse. The obvious one is Bell's Farmer
Giles. The trainer has won this race twice with newcomers starting
in 2003 with the useful filly Promenade for Cheveley Park Stud and last
year with the Coventry winner Art Connoisseur. As is often the case for
a stable that doesn't tune horses for FTO the debut wins are usually an
indicator of an OR90+ juvenile. In general Mr Bell runs just a small number
of 2yos in early season and they tend to be a mix of precocious types who
need to win early and some will never turn the early places into a win
(like his 2002 runner in this race Naughty Girl) and some useful ones capable
of at least two wins in the season.
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Which means that if Farmer Giles is in this race representing the same
owner as last year's winner and with jockey Spencer in attendance then
he ought to be an OR80+ type at least. Since Mr Bell will leave his debut
runners 15-20lbs below their best an OR80 type wouldn't beat Archers Road
today on what we know. So the question is whether Farmer Giles is that
bit more useful and capable of a win FTO? Art Connoisseur was OR120
at season end so beat his field last year without really trying. The market
didn't tell you last year that Art Connoisseur was Group Class as his SP
was 100/30 as second favourite with the STO limited filly Transcentral
(OR65, better end seller material) just behind him at 7/2. Laughable in
retrospect but that was all the 'Market' knew. Given a strong profile like
Archers Road what sort of price would tell you that Farmer Giles is high
class? 7/2ish?
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On pedigree it is believable the Farmer might have bit of extra zip.
The dam is well related and produced a filly with a hint of better class
about her last year including a go in a Group 3 at just 7/1. He is by the
New Zealand sire Danroad who won at high class over 6f at 2yo in NZ and
has produced a Grade 1 winner there. He made a much better price on his
second yearling sale and reasonable prospects of being one with a bit more
than the average zip.
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David Evans entered three horses for the Brocklesby and ran Bond Together
who never got involved at 12/1 and was a 10th and as far forward as he
ever was after a slightly slow start. The second of them went to Kempton
and Star Rover won that well showing a similar level of form to Archers
Road. The third was Jack My Boy and has a typical lower grade sprint
pedigree and lowish price for the trainer. But, we know that the speedy
ones are well prepared in early season and if he has the ability Jack could
post a performance similar to Archers Road. but the Market wont inform
you of that.
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On profile the Kevin Ryan trained Here Now And Why (another Brocklesby
entry) looks like one of his early season types out early because it lacks
development potential. A likely 4th-6th finish in this sort of field and
try a Northern Auction STO. Bryn Palling is another regular in these early
season races and, like Evans, has his runners very ready to compete on
debut. The ones with ability will win FTO and often at long SPs but they
tend to be in May & June and the early runners are more limited types.
Anita's Luck is a sibling of one of his FTO winners (Among Friends)
but seems likely to be a more limited type. He should be prominent given
the preparation he will have had but another 4th to 6th type.
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Paul Midgley runs two more on debut with another Brocklesby entry in Camacho
Flyer looking the first string over Blue Bond. He is another
trainer who proved in 2008 that he can get early debut wins with OR75+
types. Given the cost of the 2yos he has getting that quality every year
isn't that likely though. He has run three so far and two have run prominently
in 3rd place, including at Doncaster, but have then faded badly. This race
looks better quality than the ones he got wins in last year but a forward
showing by Camacho Flyer (by FSS Camacho who has already had a winner)
wouldn't be a huge surprise.
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Willie Muir isn't a particularly good 2yo trainer and struggles to get
to average strike rates despite a solid budget to buy horses with. He picks
a few usable types to run in early season but they seem to never win early
and need a lot of time to get the win. The stable usually needs until June
to get going. He has only had 2 wins (both in later May) before June 18th
in the last 4 seasons despite a good number of runs. On the other side
the early runners have produced 6 winners from 8 over the whole season
so they find a success eventually. Mr Muir does get long priced FTO wins
and his debut runners are relatively competent. But, the wins come after
mid-season typically. Ever So Bold is related to the early placed
2yo Ben and looks a more limited type on profile who would need sellers
eventually.
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The other runner is Lucky Mellor for Dean Ivory and would be a very
unlikely winner for a trainer who has never had one. His father had a good
record with 2yos but tends to have his trained by Richard Hannon these
days. Mr Ivory has had one placed debut (in later season by a subsequent
winner) in the last two years and this one would have to be an OR85+ type
to figure off a typical trainer prep.
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