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Archers Road's win yesterday confirmed that the front of the
Brocklesby form is solid. For the second time the Channon horses broke
well and set a strong pace. It both races the pressure he has applied has
broken most of the field he has faced and both races had been notable for
bulk fading and nothing really closing later in the race. The pressure
applied has meant that horses sitting close enough make a meaningful move
forward against him have already been taken too far out of their cruising
pace to be able to muster a finish.
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While Archers Road has stalled visibly himself in the last two furlongs
he has only met one horse able to go something like his pace and still
produce a finish. That was Hearts Of Fire in the Brocklesby who
saw the race out well. At Doncaster Swilly Ferry did make some sort
of forward move before stalling and at Leicester Here Now And Why
was pressing him at halfway, lost touch with him uphill but kept tabs with
him in the last furlong and a half. Apart from those positives you are
judging everything else in those two races by how much they faded, looking
for the least worst. Or else you are looking for excuses for bad runs -
can Farmer Giles really be that bad? You would be taking a lot of
trust after his weak effort and interesting to see whether Spencer bothers
next time if he has a choice.
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Given the need of early season 2yos to make notable improvement to stay
where they are in quality terms relative to other horses you always have
to be careful to not get carried away with early clear wins. This Leicester
race had produced 2 of the last 3 Coventry Stakes winners (Helvellyn &
Art Connoisseur) so what to make of Archers Road. He almost certainly isn't
that quality and the was he finishes races at present he look a 5f type
and probably up to competing in earlier Listed races before he gets overhauled.
Some form of OR80s handicapper in the fullness of time.
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Which brings us to Bath with three of the 11 fillies having run
before including Chicita Banana. She was in a line of six horses
within half a length of each other at the front of the Brocklesby field
past halfway which included Archers Road & Hearts Of Fire. She faded
after 3.5 furlongs and finished up a well beaten 7th although nothing much
was closing to go past the remnants shelled from the early pacemakers.
So, you have to judge her on what you think of the quality of her fade.
On the plus side she had the nous and pace to get front rank and she is
unlikely to face anything that can apply the pressure Archers Road did
here. She also has a better jockey on board and presumably will be held
up more on this uphill track. On balance she starts from such a low base
that looking for a better quality newcomer seems sensible.
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The other two fillies with runs both did their best, as limited types,
to get involved on their debuts. True Red was too limited a type
to get further than midfield and faded in the straight. She should get
further forward in this group but come up short on quality. Michaelmas
Daisy pressed forward in her debut to press the leader and between
them they went too quickly. She faded to the final furlong and more so
than the other leader. If Chicita Banana wants to mix it again here you
would not be surprised to see the Daisy oblige her with a duel to break
both of them. So, given all the faders the instinctive option is to look
for a better debut type since thos that have run have not proved they can
really see a race out and this is a stiff track. Watching the race might
well turn into one of those nail biters where the better newcomer misses
the break a bit and the experienced runners get well clear and is that
fade ever going to happen? It will, let the final furlong unravel on these
stiff courses.
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Working backwards we should be able to discount Dolly Will Do (£400
purchase from a new trainer) & Avonvalley (better trainer but
his 2yo debuts are usually set-ups for the career and the quality of the
FTO tells you a lot about how much ability they have). Mick Channon runs
two and both were bred by the trainer from one of his tame stallions in
Imperial Dancer. Vilnius looks the better of the pair on jockey
bookings and pedigree but both would have to be much better than their
profile to do better than a minor place. It is also interesting to speculate
why Tony Culhane (a regular pilot for Channon) rides Chicita Banana rather
than one of his. That filly is owned by Harry Findlay in partnership who
has horses with Channon as well.
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Hmm, still looking for something to catch the fading Banana in the final
furlong. Kate Skate is one of Paul Cole's owner bred types and is
by a sire who doesn't get 5f winners and rarely early ones. The dams adds
a bit of zip but, like Channon's pair, a filly where a place would indicate
and OR78+ winner. Which leaves us with three possibles for a better debut
with Country Princess, Crown & Mrs Puff.
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In reverse order Mrs Puff is a cheap one for trainer Andy Haynes who didn't
have a 2yo winner last year. Put like that why have her on any shortlist?
Last year was unusual for Mr Haynes and he either had a bad group of juveniles
or some illness issue with the string. In the previous three seasons (his
first three) he had got regular early season places and a clear win in
a seller. For example if his 2007 filly Sinead Of Aglish (limited but tuned
up early) was in this event she would go close to winning. SO, at longer
odds Mrs Puff isn't one to dismiss.
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Crown is a lot more obvious and has lots of positives. Good sire, well
related dam, cost a lot as a foal and owned by one of Hannon's 'Lucky'
owners. He has only had two runners and neither of those was good enough
to win FTO. In general a debut win will indicate a high class horses but
the profile says this could be one. He won the early April maiden at the
course last year with April Pride who came through late after the pacemakers
had run themselves out. She ran in lots of good fillies races without looking
like winning one later in the season and got sold for a lot to go to the
US.
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Mr Beckett made it into the FTO P&L tracking last year for All Debuts
because he gets FTO wins throughout the season at all distances. His first
runner for example. Country Princess has a lot of positives and will probably
be a little more tuned than Crown and would be value at a longer price.
[For reference the profile figures for the fillies are :- Country Princess
34; Crown 28; Mrs Puff 24; Chicita Banana 23; Vilnius 23; Kate Skate 19;
Michaelmas Daisy 18; Vaduz 9; Avonvalley 6; Dolly Will Do 0]
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At Musselburgh there are six newcomers pitched together and the
winner ought to come from the best of the fillies Miss Smilla and
Always Dixie. The three lowest on profile are Mr Smithson
(trainer's Brocklesby runner made no impact and debuts normally uncompetitive);
Cariad Coch (owner bred rather than a Stubbs' sales purchase - which
they are good at - and even the better ones usually need the debut to prime
for STO peak) & Miccolo (related to lots of lightweight sprint
2yos but too light to be Midgley's surprise debut winner in a race he won
last year. Trainer's 5 runners to date have finished between 5th to 12th
and none have finished a race off properly).
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Bryan Smart was a profitable member of the FTO P&L tracking last year
but that was for the period May-July. He typically produces a batch of
usable 2yos in that month and debut wins are a regular outcome. His earlier
season debuts overall tend to look underdone and need time to develop and
compete differently to those May debuts. He hasn't had a 2yo runner before
may in 2007-8 and the six April debuts in 2005-6 produced one winner but
that was the high class Helvellyn and a number of solid 2yos have looked
short of readiness. Which means that Monalini needs either to be
high class or the trainer much more forward than usual and a 'pass' on
the evidence.
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Which leaves the two fillies noted above. Mark Johnston's record is very
like Mr Smarts in that early April runners are rare and the ones there
are look like sighters as the stable gets going in later month and into
May. He had Whippers Love in the Brocklesby (he is not a regular in that
race) and it was one of the best supported down to disputing favouritism.
A comical performance followed with him out the back and wouldn't change
your view you'd like to wait a couple of weeks and see how a few of his
juveniles go before getting involved. The circumstantial evidence on the
other side is that the trainer will be very keen to get a win with Always
Dixie. He owned the dam and bred this one to a covering by Lucky Story
whom he won a juvenile Group 1 with. He has trained a FTO winner from the
dam with the later Listed race winner Parkview Love but that success came
in early May. A possible winner in a race that 'something has to win but
another pass.
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Which brings us to Kevin Ryan's Miss Smilla who has a good pedigree
to be a 5f 2yo and one which has produced high class runners including
The Trader (who placed on his April debut many season's back) and another
debut placer with Molly Moon. Mr Ryan can also need time to get his 2yos
going but in general he gets wins earlier than the other two major northern
stables represented. He tends to choose natural 2yos to run early and many
place FTO and a minor fade in the final half furlong in typical showing
they are a run short of the peak. The evidence is that he has a usable
batch of early 2yos this year and they are pretty ready to go. Two runners
and two seconds to date with both showing a stall late on in the race.
But, one was beaten by a David Evans special and the other pushed Archers
Road for a long way which not a lot has been able to do. There isn't anything
with that sort of profile in this race so perhaps this one can hang on
to the line. If the Johnston & Ryan fillies take each other on and
both fade then the race opens up to a surprise winner.
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