-
A lower class Auction race at Lingfield with the runners carrying
different weight according to the highest bid they attracted on their last
trip through a sales ring, regardless of whether they actually changed
hands as a result of that bid. That makes little difference in this race
with the one filly in the race carrying 8-6 and 3 of the colts 8-11 as
would be typical by weight for sex. Shark Man carries 2lbs less and Desert
Auction 2lbs more than the 8-11 for being a little cheaper and more expensive
than the average. The topweight is the newcomer Soccer who has a
5lbs penalty for being retained for €40,000 to Desert Auction's €24,000
while the others are notably cheaper.
-
To date the three races with STO runners in to date have seen two won by
them and one one by an ok newcomer when the STO runner looked less than
well suited to the track nor a natural 5f runner. This race sees two STO
horses taken on by 5 on debut and the place to start is with Shark Man
given that the Brocklesby has already produced two subsequent winners.
Shark Man ran a much different race to those two winner with Archers Road
& Chicita Banana both in the front rank of six at halfway and having
had to cross over to the stands' side from middle track draws to do it.
-
The speedy natural Archers Road didn't fade until late at Doncaster and
has won a race with a similar performance. The filly Chicita Banana faded
notably out of the leading group although not losing many places with nothing
much closing from behind. She went to Bath to take on a weak group of fillies
yesterday and the pace set was a lot less searching than at Doncaster and
she bumbled into a plugging on win from the limited True Red without looking
that good. [Trainer George Baker said that he had intended to wait 3-4
weeks before running her again but she had taken the race so well he thought
about running her back quickly. He said he had rung his 'mentor', former
trainer David Loder, to check whether it was a good idea and he had said
go-for-it. If Baker was with Loder it explains the fizzy, sweating nature
of his 2yos in 2008, we are back in the Godolphin axis of taut horses.]
-
Shark Man didn't track over to the stands' side and raced mid track throughout
away from the pacemakers. He was just over four lengths behind the leader
(Archers Road at halfway in 12th place) and finished fifth but now more
than five lengths behind Archers Road and nearly eight lengths off the
winner Hearts Of Fire. So, what to make of his effort? On one side he didn't
get involved and was making places though broken horses rather than showing
a strong extra effort. On the plus side the Brocklesby seems better than
solid form by early season standards and getting to 5th a positive. The
4th from that race runs at Newcastle ten minutes before Lingfield starts
so a late chance to see just how strong the Brocklesby is.
-
The trainer does get STO winners, although not off short breaks, and with
early runners rare this one is presumably a bit of a natural. But he changes
surface and comes to a downhill track with a tight bend so he is going
to need to show different qualities to what he did at Doncaster. He is
taken on by the Hannon STO Desert Auction who appeared to be the
second string on debut last week. He ran competently to get to third before
fading into the final furlong and the hannon runners often snap together
STO. The trainer has run three to date and this one ran most prominently.
The Newcastle race preceding Lingfield has Out The Ring in it (2nd in front
of Desert Auction) as well as Trade Secret (fourth in the Brocklesby) so
a chance to compare the relative merits before this race. The horse in
fourth behind Desert Auction was Bould Mover who finished 3rd on his STO
run behind two newcomers. B2yoR would admit to being a little baffled by
the what the strength of the Kempton form is and which of the Hannon pair
in it is the better runner. The two races today will hopefully prove
very informative in helping greatly to tie the early form together.
-
On the plus side Desert Auction is proven on the surface and Hughes have
bothered to ride him. This is one of those occasions when the Market should
be informative because if Desert Auction is an OR80+ goodish one he will
be supported as a solid favourite. A preference for Desert Auction just
but through parted fingers given the early evidence of how the Brocklesby
fallouts have competed.
-
Tom Dascombe has made a good start to his training career and had a good
time with juveniles last year including two separate Group winners. But,
a sue hand with debuts, especially in early season, has not been one of
the qualities demonstrated. The headline figures show 4 FTO wins in his
first three seasons so surely he can 'ready one'. Well, 3 of the four have
been by Group class runners from August onwards and he seems to batch up
some well prepared better ones at that time (something to watch for). In
early season it is more variable and his two Group winners last year managed
2nd & 4th on their April debuts. 7f Group winner Firth Of Fifth
was
second in a weaker edition of this race after losing 5 lengths at the start
and looking short on knowledge of the game. He had to show his latent ability
to close up into a set of seller & claimer types.
-
He runs Soccer by the US sire Van Nistelrooy out of a dam who has
produced a sprinter. He has to give weight to everything else and looks
to have a tough job on debut although probably one to follow as a solid
2yo given his early start. Worth noting he is another 2yo part owned by
Harry Findlay with another different trainer. Mr Findlay had a win with
favourite Chicita Banana yesterday and Miss Smilla proved a poor favourite
at Musselburgh.
-
The other 4 newcomers can be split into two possible to get into the STO
party and two very unlikely. Trainers Beckett & Haynes were both covered
yesterday and can get competitive 2yos placing and winning in early season.
Both had their first runners at Bath yesterday and both lacked any market
support and ran poorly being the worst faders in their field. Any Day
ought to be a usable filly in the Raggle Taggle mould who started her in
a similar race in 2008 but that quality wouldn't be enough to bustle up
the STO runners if they run ok. Mr Haynes had three solid seasons to start
his career but had no juvenile winner last year and has started with a
duff run in 2009. Captain Blake one to look for signs if life with.
-
Blue Zephyr runs for Willie Muir and has a likeable pedigree for
a 2yo but will need time to develop with racing the way the trainer plays
his early runners. His first runner of the season was well beaten at Leicester
in the week. Super Duplex is the first runner for first season sire
Footstepsinthesand and we have already seen a range of solid runs from
other new sires. FITS doesn't seem as likely to sire speedy, precocious,
ones on pedigree as Firebreak, Camacho and Pastoral Pursuits though. This
is a filly taking on colts and the trainer's overall record with 2yo is
moderate.
-
The Newcastle Novice race is usually won by a horse with experience
and this often means a horse from the Brocklesby and horses with form in
southern races is rare other than the Mick Channon representative. Last
year's race was typical in that regard with the winner having been 10th
in the Brocklesby (from a bad draw for a non-FTO trainer) and the 3rd having
been 3rd in the same race from a good draw. The runner-up was a Mick Channon
STO who had run moderately in a Windsor maiden (and finally won on the
AW this winter). The shape of this race would point towards the three runners
with the best previous runs providing a strong enough barrier to prevent
a surprise debut winner (like The Bear at 20/1).
-
The way the race will play probably depends on Archers Road who
carries a 4lbs penalty for his Leicester win but has a 5lb apprentice on
rather than a senior jockey. Given that he looks a straightforward ride
that doesn't look a problem. The niggle is that he has stalled inside the
final furlong on two easier tracks than this uphill climb. He is also on
his third run in 7 days and that has to have an effect. Trade Secret
was a length and a half behind Archers Road through halfway at Doncaster
and lost another length to him in the second half of the race. He has had
a week to improve rather then touring the country in a horse box and should
be able to get closer to the Channon horse.
-
As mentioned above the race links together the Doncaster and Kempton races
from a week ago and Out The Ring probably ran to a similar level as Trade
Secret with his 2nd there. His trainer really does leave 'a bit to work'
on and Out The Ring produced the typical late race fade. Normal improvement
would see him reach a level around the same as Archers Road recorded at
Leicester. In summary a close choice between the three and the instinct
says that Archers Road will found it difficult to see the race out well
enough to hold off the best of the other pair.
-
Last year's race produced just a seller winner outside of the first three
who were on STO runs and the quality here does not look strong with those
on debut. The Stubbs' stable debuts have not been ready so far this season
and Ignatieff has sound prospects of being a winner but more likely
STO than on debut. Geoff Harker has only run a pair of 2yos in recent seasons
but one ironed out a field in a seller on April 23rd last year looking
more than fully fit and wound up. Gazamali isn't an obviously precocious
2yo on pedigree but may well be better prepared than the average newcomer
here. Noel Wilson has had just 1 juvenile winner in 3 years and a raft
of bad debuts. But that hides the fact that his runners are ready on debut
and he has had a stackful of bad runners only capable of bad debuts. His
one winner won FTO and the only other prominent debut (4th) in later season
was a winner at 3yo. He runs Lady Lube Rye so what she shows should
be a good indicator of what she can do.
-
Trainer Ellison doesn't do strong debuts and his Brocklesby runner was
well beaten. But he had a surprise second in the Musselburgh race yesterday
in what seems to have been a relatively strong race for early season. The
winner Monalini seemed to put up a performance which suggests he might
be a useful nippy one. The trainer runs Lily Lenor here who was
a non-runner in the Brocklesby and she seems more likely to put up an unplaced
effort and prove that Mr Smithson's debut second was actually indicating
a usable, natural 2yo.
-
Oh, and Paul Midgley runs another pair of 2yos who cost practically nothing
and the six to have run so far have all run poorly to live down to their
cheap billing. The oddly named Ytartfawn seems the first string
here and what is that dialect for? "Why are you 'Fawn'"? Perhaps it'll
become clear on the day.
|