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A traditional race at Windsor with an unbalanced profile but an tricky
choice between three runners from major Southern stables who don't aim
for strong debuts. One possible from a more drilled FTO trainer to provide
a possible upset if none of the main three are competent & good enough.
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On profile it should be possible to discount wins for the Dean Ivory pair
(Durham Town & Miss Lesley), Greenore Gordon,
Iver Bridge Lad & Master Mylo. All of the trainers have
never had a debut winner while Mr Ivory has got the odd place FTO with
solid later winners. Malcolm Saunders (G. Gordon) is a similar type of
trainer who looks to develop 2yos with runs and FTO places indicate an
OR70+ type capable of a win somewhere. Mr Saunders has already run one
this season and perhaps is increasing his 2yo string.
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His first runner was the filly Avonvalley who gave a good demonstration
of how to approach the trainer's debuts. Having bungled the start she was
last through halfway and 8 lengths off the leaders. As the leading bunch
stalled in later race she close, cheaply, to be 3rd going on at the finish.
So she ought to be an OR70ish type at least but her lack of nous is a good
indication of why FTO wins are difficult for this sort of trainer. If you
gave David Evans Avonvalley she have been 2 dress sizes smaller FTO and
if she had ended up 3rd it would have been fading out of the pacemaking
line. She could perhaps have won.
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In general FTO wins are an interplay between basic ability versus mental
& physical preparation. By increasing the pre-debut work a trainer
can get wins with OR65-75 types in early maidens and they don not progress.
A trainer who leaves horses 20lbs below their best for debut is going to
need an OR85 horse (i.e. better quality) to beat the souped up one on ability
but with less pre-work. To take two extremes Mr Evans gets horses close
to their best rating FTO and gets debut winners on that. The best of his
horses are likely to be OR75-85 types by season end and the majority below
that. He is getting average maiden debuts wins on preparation. John Gosden
in the opposite and he has lots of expensive horses and quality. His horses
capable of OR75-85 are not his best and they will be running in the OR50s-60s
FTO and finishing 4th+ or placed in weaker/slower races. To get the debut
wins he will need an OR90+ horse in general unless one of his later season
OR70s types stumbles into an empty race. Give Mr Evans the Gosden horses
and who knows how many debut winners you would have. On second thoughts
we do know who knows, David Loder. Put the two together and you have the
former Sheikh Mohammed juveniles handler.
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So, a win for any of the five named above would be a surprise you couldn't
predict without access to paddock review. The difficulty of backing in
2yo maidens without knowing what was in the cast was a big reason in the
paddock review and B2yoR. The Lingfield, and especially the Newcastle races
on Saturday showed how doing nothing more than comparing the size of the
newcomers to the runners with form will get you a long way. Soccer was
much bigger than Desert Auction & Shark Man and dealt with them comfortably
being competent enough FTO unlike Mr Dascombe's early 2008 runners. Lurking
in the owner breds with duff pedigrees at Newcastle was the bulky Lees
Anthem, a Brocklesby entry, for a trainer who hasn't had a 2yo winner and
not a runner since 2005. But, he cruised along willingly with Archers Road
and would have pressed that, much smaller & readier, horse to the line
but for becoming unbalanced as he changed his legs in the final furlong.
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Which brings us to the four possibles for the Windsor race. Bill Turner
is another in the David Evans mould that tries to get his 2yos fit and
knowing for early season to get their wins and the debut wins some in the
first two weeks because of that. In a normal year a horse with ability
will win or place FTO and the rest will never improve on unplaced efforts.
In 2007 he was behind schedule and that didn't quite pan out and the wins
came on later runs in May. He was back normal in 2008 with his only
two wins above claimer level in the first race of the season and a STO
effort two weeks later by April 5th. Oh, the echoing wastes of the rest
of the season of standing in parade rings knowing what is coming.
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We have only seen 4 of the Turner 2yos so far with Could It Be Magic a
fading 6th in the Brocklesby (looks better now with the 2nd & 7th winning
since and the 5th placing 2nd to Soccer) and two poor efforts by very,
that's really very, limited fillies. Lady Lion was withdrawn at Kempton
after a sit-down protest and didn't look that wound up. Is he in 2007 or
2008 mode? Difficult to tell, but if he has any better 2yos we should see
them this week.
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The filly Barton Chancer has a bit better pedigree than his normal
kit. The dam was more typical for him and won on her March 27th debut (for
early 2yo 'Godfather' Jack Berry) and didn't win again as a juvenile in
11 more goes. But, she has produced a couple of 5f 2yos and OR75+ level
although they both developed with racing. Upgraded to use the sire Dubai
Destination in his first season the breeder managed to get 105,000 guineas
for this one's full brother to run for Sheikh Mohammed's son. Named Gulf
Coast he was worse than the two 5f 2yos and offloaded. They have kept this
filly presumably to breed from. Dubai Destination has got an early 5f debut
winner in each of his two seasons with runners so that Barton Chancer and
a chance on pedigree. She has a chance on trainer and is in the right time
of the year. Just need to know how big she is.
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Which brings us to the tricky three who all have similarly incomplete profiles.
Trainers Hannon, Hills & Bell are not ready FTO trainers and debut
wins therefore come along with basic ability more than they do readiness.
Adding to the intrigue are three jockeys like Richard Hughes (the king
of of the debut 'Trial' ride to set them up for STO), Spencer (not one
to bully a 2yo into the vanguard and another wait-for-another-day merchant)
and Michael Hills (also a get-involved-if-the-horse-takes-you-there type,
i.e. ability rather than prep and insistence). The race lacks a STO competitor
with ok looking form, say like Shark Man who would provide a good marker
to judge the newcomers against. We know what the Shark can do and a better
quality newcomer, like Soccer, can beat him on ability but he would last
home against an underdone OR74 type.
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The easiest to deal with is Mr Hills Red Jazz who has been mentioned
before and was the trainer's other Brocklesby entry along with Swilly Ferry
who was a good, and typical, third. In summary, Mr Hills saves his best
early 2yos for Newmarket & Newbury in mid-April and hasn't had a debut
winner before that week in recent years. Each year he chooses a small set
of 2yos to run before mid-April some of whom will be very limited and running
with fingers crossed. The others will typically be OR70-84 types, i.e.
maiden, auction & nursery winners of some sort across the season. Because
he doesn't tune for debut and because they are not superior 90+ ones they
tend to place FTO, if competent and he does get the odd blowout, and win
STO. Hence, Swilly Ferry is spot on the script. A performance around an
[Est] of 32 as he got at Doncaster would see Red Jazz placed here but vulnerable.
Mr Hills presumably knows whether Red Jazz is better or worse than Swilly
Ferry but you expect they have been working together and pretty similar.
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Two interesting stories amongst the other two regulars. Richard Hannon
has run three to date and remember that in a typical year they will be
an OR80+ one and perhaps better class if they can win FTO, an OR74-79 winner
and a 'Duff' one which could mean an OR64-9 perpetual placer. On evidence
you would say Desert Auction is probably in the OR66-73 range and perhaps
a placer. The filly Crown was given a quiet trial ride at Bath by Hughes
and did enough to suggest she's OR75+ and should snap to STO. Quite what
Black Daddy is is open to question but he looked physically a bit more
powerful than Desert Auction so perhaps an OR75 ish winner.
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The trainer, assisted by Hughes, isn't interested in debut wins and that
will mean FTO wins will tie in well with his best 2yos doing it on ability.
Now, as you might surmise, Flapjack is owned by the people who brought
you Cake (Apr 14th debut winner at 13/8f in weak Lingfield fillies' race)
in 2007 and Doughnut (Apr 1st debut winner at 9/2 in an open maiden) in
2008. Doughnut was small an precocious and got a second win at Conditions
level and tried better races before settling back into nurseries off OR89
(ring any bells as a figure?) as her lack of scope unreeled. Cake was a
bigger and stronger model who bulked up during the season she won two more
at Conditions and Listed level before being retained for 100,000gns at
the Horses in Training Sales (HiT) having cost 13,000gns. She would have
been OR100+ to give an idea of the debut winners Mr Hannon gets through
ability.
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How good might Flapjack be on pedigree? She's by new sire Trade Fair who
wouldn't be obvious as a 5f early sire but has had Trade Secret run ok
to date without looking full 5f type. But, he gets lots of help from the
dam who was an early season winner in the Doughnut/Cake mould for Mick
Channon. She won a seller at the Brocklesby meeting and ran a lot more
and managed to win a weak edition of the Group3 Molecomb (OR80s quality).
She's produced an early filly in Lake Hero who won STO before drifting
back to OR70s as the season wore on. Since she cost £10,000 you presume
this will be a small and nippy filly who will be OR70s and at her best,
relatively, against horses who can develop more now. The paddock reviewer
will be expecting to see her look small against Red Jazz & Thomas Baines
but with 5lb less is she too small to be more racey for the day.
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The final leg of the three in Michael Bell's Thomas Baines, a son
of Johannesburg like Red Jazz, who cost 55,000gns. Which means he ought
to be much heavier than Flapjack, although the sire doesn't get tall ones
and short & bulky bulls, and with more scope. Mr Bell is similar to
both Hannon & Hills in that debut wins come along with pure ability.
If anything he has them a bit less tuned than the other pair. Like Hills
he selects his early runners with care and they will be competitive 2yos
of some sort normally and usually at least OR75 sorts.
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The debut winners will need to be OR88 types across the season if they
are fillies and the colts will probably be Group class. The only two early
debut wins by colts in the last 7 seasons have been by Nevisian Lad (2yo
Group3 winner) and Art Connoisseur last year. He has run a mixed bag in
these early season Windsor maidens with Hoh Mike the best rep who blew
the break by a long way under Spencer and demonstrated his talent by closing
into 2nd from well back. He was 100/30 and a similar son of Intikhab, on
paper, finished 3rd at 14/1 the next year and looked OR70ish when he finally
reappeared at 3yo.
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The early debut wins by fillies are all similar types with Promenade (3
wins from 4 up to conditions level, unp. in the queen Mary & OR90),
Bright Moll (2 wins up to conditions, 5th in the Queen Mary, OR89) &
Bahamian Babe last year (3 wins up to early season Listed in May, unp.
in the Queen Mary and well beaten off OR96 dropped back to nurseries).
Mr Bell said in interview last year that he thought Bahamian Babe had been
running to OR90 all year and was struggling in later season as less precocious
horses developed. Always good to hear trainers talking in OR terms because
it means they have a plan and are judging the 2yos against it. Mark Prescott
writes letters to his owners telling them what OR their horse has worked
that day and that is why he can work the handicap system for multiple winners.
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In summary, barring a surprise the winner should come from the horse with
most ability from the three runners from the major stables or from Bill
Turner's filly if she is an OR75 type and fit rather than an OR50 rabbit
(easy to judge by looking). Choosing between the other three is tricky
because they all have incomplete profiles and jockeys you couldn't trust
to make it happen now. If Thomas Baines wins he might well be up to Group
class but difficult to spot that from the Market although the debut winners
are usually 5/1 or less (although for a combined 10/42 and a loss for all
debuts at 5/1 or under since 2003). A performance by Red Jazz like that
od Swilly Ferry would see him involved in the finish but vulnerable and
Michael Hills wont push the issue. Come on, Mr Turner, save us from turning
this three-sided puzzle around and around to look at it from different
ways with a whizzed up trump card....
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