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Nottingham on Thursday brings an interesting Novice event and the
12th race of the new season. A solid start to the year so far with a small
number of good debuts which made the winners look useful and promising
enough to compete at higher level. The Brocklesby was won comfortably by
Hearts Of Fire from Archers Road who has won twice since. Wins, in moderate
or poor races, by the seventh & ninth at Doncaster might suggest a
lot of quality in the race but it probably doesn't go back beyond the third
- Swilly Ferry. The 4th & 5th have only placed since without looking
progressive, nor particularly big when faced with a bulkier newcomer. Hearts
Of Fire didn't look that taking, or ready, at Doncaster but ran well and
must be some sort of a natural. You suspect he is another of these OR85-89
types who looks good in early season and can win at Novice & Conditions
level to mid-season but gets found out in Group events. Archers Road is
a similar type, perhaps a touch lower in OR terms overall, and looks a
5f specialist. Barry Hills Swilly Ferry is probably a good maiden winner
who will stall when going higher.
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Mention of Mr Hills links well to the other promising debuts we have seen
so far and Red Jazz (Brocklesby entered) made a very good start at Windsor
on Monday. Taking a three-sided problem and collapsing it into a non-issue.
His natural ability allowed the jockey to take his time to move to challenge
and then pull clear unpressed. He looks to have the scope to compete in
the mid-season Listed & Group races. Mr Hills usually rolls out his
best 2yos at Newmarket (next week) so either Red Jazz is unusually precocious,
not as good as he looked, or most excitingly the possibility that the trainer
has a couple better to show us.
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The Windsor race saw an interesting example of the way whispers can get
out of hand. With all the racing press & hangers on brought together
at Aintree what was probably little more than Michael Bell saying he had
a nice 2yo he was hopeful for turned into "Flying Machine". Thomas Baines
was talked up in various ways before the race. The reality that he was
likely to be inexperienced and need the run, plus a typically non-involving
ride from Spencer, meant he drifted in the Market. He looked green in the
preliminaries and ran that way but at least showed enough to think he would
be worth checking, and perhaps backing, next time unlike Farmer Giles who
ran badly for the same connections the previous week.
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Of the other debut efforts you would pick out Soccer as the most taking
and Monalini as probably quit good. The first of those dusted off smaller
runners with placed form giving them weight in a manner which suggested
he should develop well and from a high base. If Mr Smithson didn't exist
you would be pretty positive about Monalini as well. The fact a runner
who cost €4,000 with a non strong debut trainer closed up so well
on him raises a doubt. But he had gone quite hard and responded to Mr Smithson's
challenge. One to check but on the evidence you would expect the Ellison
2yo to be able win an early race. If he struggles then Monalini goes back
in the 'Pending' tray.
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The rest of the races and horses have looked just early season form and
some of the races have been poor and you wouldn't be surprised if they
hardly produced a subsequent winner. A couple of other horses with one
run are worth mentioning. Here Now And Why has a moderate profile but gave
Archers Road a hard time at Leicester and has made the best debut by a
Kevin Ryan 2yo so far. He ought to be better than the typical, limited,
early season placer for the trainer (in the Out The Ring manner). A 2yo
with an empty profile - Lees Auction - was giving Archers Road a lot of
trouble as that horse idled while he looked down on the Channon horse.
He probably would have stalled to second but disappeared through the rail
before we found out. Probably an OR79ish maiden type.
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Which brings us back to Nottingham by thinking about one of the races that
hasn't got a mention - the Kempton Class 4 maiden on the same day as the
Brocklesby. That saw David Evans' Star Rover storm to a clear win
from what would appear, on profile, solid placed horses. The paddock notes
that came back didn't particularly like the 1st 3 and thought they would
prove OR60s to low 70s type in the fullness. Star Rover was a typically
small, fit and ready Evans 2yo and it was his fluid movement that seemed
to lift him above being an early trundler. The second to fourth from the
race have all run since and been soundly beaten. In all cases the race
has suffered in comparison to the Brocklesby. The second - Out The Ring
- faded out tamely behind the Brocklesby 2nd & 4th at Newcastle looking
like a non-stayer in tougher conditions than at Kempton. The third - Desert
Auction - was trounced by Soccer and ran to a similar level as Shark Man
(5th from Doncaster) without any excuses. Fourth was Bould Mover who was
left behind in the last half furlong by two newcomers who looked just ok
early season types. The 7th placed 2nd at Bath in a fillies' race but had
an easy lead and that was almost certainly a weak affair.
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Half of the field at Notingham are on 2TO and 3 of them come from the Kempton
race. Having read the previous paragraph you might well be reaching for
the alternates list. Not so fast. The obvious exception to the general
downer on the Kempton event is that Star Rover won it clearly by 4 lengths
and was not stopping later in the race. On the day he hung over to the
stands' rail in the straight which was a definite advantage and helped
the way he rolled on. Being four lengths better than Out The Ring puts
him in the gap between Archers Road and Trade Secret at Newcastle which
feels about right for the way the two race's influence has spread.
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Beating Desert Auction by 5.75 lengths makes him a little closer to Archers
Road in the Brocklesby if you factor in Desert Auction's final furlong
fade and his later run against the Brocklesby 5th Shark Man. A more tenuous
link via Bould Mover (beaten 7.75L), Alphacino (1 length behind Bould Mover
at Folkestone) & the 8th at Doncaster in Eight Hours (beat Alphacino
2.5L on Monday & 11 lengths adrift in the Brocklesby) puts Star Rover
in the same Archers Road to Trade Secret area. That's across turf and polytrack
on flat courses, undulating ones and around left and right hand bends.
Oh, and with many horses on debut or on STO. You might wonder there is
any consistency in lining the two races up at all but horses, including
moderate ones despite what you often hear parroted, do run consistently
and in a narrow performance band.
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Star Rover is unlikely to have improved much and has to give 7lbs to the
other males. That's just over two lengths and enough to stop a horse against
a solid opponent. If you are an OR78 horse (probably where Star Rover will
be in nurseries by around September) and can run to that level you are
vulnerable to an OR75 newcomer. But the newcomer is unlikely to be able
to run to his full OR75 FTO with most trainers so you may well get away
with it. Going back to thinking about the interplay between readiness and
ability if you meet and OR90 horse making his debut he will wear you down
in the last furlong anyway. In summary, Star Rover will be fit and tuned
for the day but not a long-term prospect and vulnerable to a better type
although he presents a stiff barrier to just an ordinary newcomer or a
better one from a very underdone FTO trainer.
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Now, given what we have heard about the 2nd-4th from Kempton you would
think the Star Rover has nothing to fear from what was behind him that
day (he won by 4L and more and is penalised 2L+). And yet, and yet. There
are some grounds for thinking and the next best two horses (over a season)
in that field finished further behind than 4th and both are in this field.
Hannon ran two in the race and Black Daddy appeared to be the preferred
on the betting moves and, probably, on Steve Drowne riding. The Paddock
notes had him rated more highly (in OR terms) than Desert Auction and,
in circumstantial evidence terms, it would be unusual for the trainer to
start two in a race at Kempton early and neither be much cop. The horse
mentally backed off after getting squeezed at the start and never got involved.
The Hannon horses can run variable debuts but will show what they
are capable of STO. Black Daddy ought to be better than Kempton and than
Desert Auction which would mean an improved effort. A niggle as to why
Hughes isn't riding but we will find out what Black Daddy really is.
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The horse the paddock guy at Kempton scored highest in the long view was
Paul Cole's Red Avalanche and said he ought to be capable of OR80+
eventually. But, he was toweringly stupid and mentally young on the day
and ran as per his looks looking bamboozled by what to do next after the
stalls opened. You can bring in a number of lightweight items to suggest
he's an ok winner rather than a duff one the trainer doesn't fancy starting
with his 11/2 SP FTO (laughable and very layable if you had seen him in
the prelims). The duff ones tend to be rather longer FTO and, another vague
hint, they do not tend to run again soon after which is reserved normally
for the ok ones. In a race where Star Rover doesn't really appeal as a
bet (because, as a paddock first filter type, you would kick yourself as
a bigger one went by late) the info B2yoR would really like is how Red
Avalanche looks and behaves for each-way purposes. Oh, and whether the
Market says Black Daddy is her to compete.
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The other STO horse in Mel Brittain's Heslington who ran as his
second string, to Trade Secret, in the Brocklesby. He was moderately drawn
and lost two lengths at the start but then ran hard enough to be on the
outside wing of the leading line-of-six through halfway, within a length
of the leader, before fading back to 11th. Given that he got more involved
than the likes of Shark Man & Eight Hours the fade is more acceptable
and he is probably a bit better than that final 11th suggests. But still
a little behind Star Rover if you believe the math.
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With Star Rover as the marker what about the newcomers? Easy to cross off
is Avec Moi who cost 3,000gns and whose dam won at two for
trainer Dunnett in a selling Nursery off OR44, or it might have been OR41,
couldn't be bothered to look it up in context. It is also correct to cross
Corporal Maddox off as well. Karl Burke is a much bigger and more important
stable in 2yos terms but winners before late May are very rare in recent
years as his string has got more expensive. He used to get early winners
with cheap rabbits. In the last 4 seasons he has had one winner
before May 15th and we should be looking for him to have a batch of winners
around May 25th to early June.
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These will be early runners on STO or 3TO who have finally come to the
boil and some debut wins with his best sprint 2yos. The early debuts, like
this one, will be competitive 2yos but will snap together in May. A place
on an early debut is typically a sign of a better class 2yo. His only April
winner recently was a debut winner at Nottingham with Chjimes, still competing
at a highish level on the AW, and an early season Listed winner in Ireland
to give an idea of the quality needed for Corporal Maddox to win this.
Worth recording that he is owned by Maura Gittins who has 36 horses in
the yard, with D Sweeney the retained jockey, and is relatively expensive
and with a good 2yo pedigree. One to track and a place would be a very
good kick-off and a win mean he was Listed+ class.
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Gillburg runs for Kevin Ryan who has his early debuts more forward
than Karl Burke but wins usually come with FTOs later in May. His runners
will typically lack the conditioning the see the final furlong out strongly
and will need to be OR85+, at least, to succeed. Mick Channon has settled
down into his normal FTO pattern in early season after Archers Road's 25/1
Brocklesby second. He won a typically weak Lingfield race early in a slow
time with a newcomer and the three debuts since with home-breds have not
been strong. He is another of these larger stables who uses a pattern of
(a) earliest debuts will be the most natural 2yos and some will win &
place, (b) lull with some lesser types debuting in earlier April, (c) batch
of stronger debuts and better types in mid-April at Newmarket & Newbury,
(d) batch of debut wins with better types later - early to Mid-May in his
case.
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Royal Desert is arab owned and this normally means Mr Channon takes
extra care to ensure that they have got a usuble 2yo for the money and
it will be above the normal readiness FTO. If this filly was good you would
think she would start a but later and at one of the big, 'Guineas Trial',
meetings. She has a usable 2yo pedigree at a low level and the Market should
be helpful in assessing whether she is better class. If she is then the
4/1 in some of the early tissues would be a fair indicator.
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