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Just one 2yo race on the day with a seller at Warwick & a typical
field in a number of ways including that females outnumber the males by
2:1. The race features runners from 5 trainers who have become regulars
in the event in it's four year history. There is enough in the profiles
of these runners to believe they are the best place to look for the winner.
In summary :-
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David Evans - 2005 won with FTO Wizby, 3rd in 2006, 2nd in 2007
& 3rd in 2008.
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Stan Moore - 3rd in 2005, won in 2006 with a STO runner, 6th &
NR (probable favourite) in 2007.
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Andy Haynes - won with FTO colt Nestor Protector in 2007 (above
seller class and won by miles on a day when the trainer also had the 14/1
debut second in the fillies' maiden) & 2008 8th with a tiny, useless,
filly.
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Bill Turner - 8th in 2005, 2nd & 7th in 2006, 4th in 2007 &
2nd in 2008.
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Mick Channon - 2nd in 2005 with FTO Garlogs (home bred, still capable
of winning off OR70+ this winter), 6th in 2006 with another one he bred
by sire Hunting Lion & 4th last year with another home bred.
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The representatives from these trainers this year are typical overall to
increase the feeling of cantering over some very familiar territory. David
Evans had a debut winner in a seller early last year to add to his 2005
success in the equivalent event and has already shown this year his stable
is in it's usual ready early form. Transfixed is well drawn and
cost a relatively expensive £5,000 as a yearling. A prominent run
looks extremely likely.
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Stan Moore has an unusual record with 2yos in that he gets a lot of wins
later in the season including with runners that made early season debuts
but need a lot of runs to win. The exceptions have been with the odd debut
winner in early season that doesn't progress and, his most consistent target
over his career, with STO winners in sellers who made debuts shortly before
in better races. Island Express received some support on debut at
Folkestone, as many of the handler's 2yos did early, and made little show
after missing the break. The trainer said in interview before that race
that he was the 'Now' horse without scope and Maoi Chinn Tire (his other
2yo running) had more scope. The seller types usually run much better STO
at their right level and with a good draw he is another prime contender.
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Mr Haynes had a bad 2008 with no winner and his first two runners this
year have been poor efforts. Bathwick Gino is another colt running
for the owner who sponsors the stable (Bathwick Tyres, the Red & Yellow
colours). After so long without a juvenile winner an attempt to win this
with something better than seller class wouldn't seem that bad an idea.
This one cost 3,000gns & is the first runner for new sire Alamshar
who had a mixed pedigree and did not run until 8f in late season as a 2yo.
The dam has produced all sorts with previous foals including a 5f winner
at Warwick. An interesting runner but with the recent record poor and the
earlier debuts this year uncompetitive a bit of faith needed to think this
will be another 'Nestor'.
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Bill Turner gets mostly seller & claimer wins but, perversely, they
usually come along later in the season than early May with a STO runner.
His two runners-up in this race are good examples with Sad Times in 2006
taking until her 7th run in mid-June to finally win a seller. Last year
it was the bulky, by early 2yo filly standards, Dancing Wave and she never
won for the stable being claimed out of the race and finally won over 6f
this winter. Sad Times needed 7f to win demonstrating one niggle with the
trainer's style in that he pushes most 2yos into '5f Early' whatever. Dancing
Wave was perhaps a similar story and the fact he had a horse capable of
winning claimed & seeing it improve for other trainers is another major
niggle with his style. You could add Just The Lady & Gone Hunting to
last year's claimed improvers and Just Dust (Goodwood nursery winner) and
the OR95+ rated Traytonic to the really bad efforts over the years. His
filly Secret Rose looked very small and soon got left behind downhill
at Lingfield. She should run better STO, as Anjomarba did, but doesn't
appeal as a strong contender.
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Mick Channon also gets usable horses claimed each year but since he bred
a lot of them and he isn't getting paid much to train them that isn't a
problem. Garlogs was claimed out of this race and won STO for example.
He runs the filly Vaduz who was the second string of two trainer
breds in the Bath race she debuted in. She broke well enough but seemed
to get outpaced in mid-race in a race with just an average pace. She didn't
look like a filly with 5f pace even on the stiff course at Bath and comes
to a quick, flat, course. Not that well drawn either on a course where
wins by horses drawn 7 or higher usually need 'help'. That might mean the
low drawn horses going to quick, soft to heavy going or hanging over to
the stands' rail in the straight proving beneficial. Not a taking proposition
as the forecast favourite.
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Her run will be a test of the strength of the form of the Bath race. It
looked a weak affair and the runner-up looks a seller type. Vaduz got a
B2yoR estimate of 12 for that effort and if she really can run to that,
and with the 5lb fillies' allowance, she should go close to winning. Instinct
says that the Bath race was perhaps over-rated even at the low level it
was put at. One to review after this race. In general two of the three
subsequent winners from the Brocklesby (Chicita Banana at Bath in front
of Vaduz & Eight Hours at Wolverhampton) appear to have won empty races
and did not really frank the Doncaster race. The next time someone
pipes up with "How well the Brocklesby is working out..." feel free
to question the person on the strength of the subsequent wins and why Shark
Man & Trade Secret & Heslington have not won STO.
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Mention of the Brocklesby is apt because this race has two in it from that
race. Grace Jicaro did better than Reel Easy and was 10th
through halfway only 3.5L off the leader and faded to be beaten 14L at
the finish. A bit of improvement from that would see her compete to win
here if you believe Hearts Of Fire ran to about OR88+ and the race is working
out well. The trainer, Linda Williamson, had two placed debuts early last
year and didn't manages a win with either of them later not any in the
season. She has dropped this one to a suitable race so we shall learn more
about the trainer here.
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The field will not doubt contain a lot of never-will-bes and hasn't produced
a winner above claimer class across the previous seasons. Last year was
a poor affair and the race was the only one the 8 of them won during the
turf season. The horses covered should contain most of those with some
prospects of a win in the season but mention has to be made of Kaspirit.
He was retained for £12,000 as a 2yo, having cost €34,000 as
a yearling, and in the context of this race that sort of price makes him
regal. He is by a sire with a good record with 2yos and fine for early
5f winners. He is the first foal of a dam who ran over 6f at 2yo in Italy.
He is presumably an example of the sort of retained pinhook (horse
bought as an investment to resell at another sale before it ever runs on
the track, typically a foal-yearling or yearling-2yo breeze-up profit attempt)
that we shall see a lot of this year with the sales markets depressed.
The owner may be the John Cullinan who used to train under his own name
as Pennywise racing before going to Walter Swinburn's yard to look after
the 2yos.
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Kaspirit is trained by Michael Wigham who is one of those handlers who
appears to care as much about looking clever as about getting winners.
There always seems to be the whiff of 'Gamble' about his winners which
perhaps he enjoys. So, an expensive debut in a seller for a 'plot' trainer
and perhaps for an old mate who needs to get out of his pinhook purchase
which has gone south without taking too much of a bath, sort of thing,
like. No geniuses required to suggest there will be hints of 'Market Mover'
about Kaspirit with her price going in different directions at varying
speeds at times. Well enough drawn and jockey booked who can be as strong
as necessary. Mr Wigham doesn't have a 2yo record to speak of with few
runners and no winner. Perhaps he can get it done if that is the idea but
not on profile.
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In summary, at a distance without having seen the horses you would look
at the previous major players for the winner and Stan Moore is probably
the most reliable and the Evans FTO horse wiring the field if she is ok
would not surprise at all. The Channon & Turner runners make less appeal
on profile and perhaps Mr Haynes could show he had his horses were in a
bit of form before you started looking at them again. This is only race
14 of a 1,000+ plus after all. Interest in ratings terms with Vaduz &
the Brocklesby pair and probably no way to avoid the tiresome prospect
of Kaspirit's market meanderings and Mr Wigham smiling enigmatically from
beneath a startling large, flat 'at.
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There is no race on Tuesday and the season then gets moving again with
major meetings at Newmarket & Newbury and a number of races in the
North. Newmarket will have a 5f Conditions race on Wednesday for which
there are only 11 entries. These include the debut winners Hearts Of Fire,
Soccer & Monsieur Chevalier (as Hannon first string along with newcomer
Captain Cool). The Bath winner Chicita Banana also seems likely to run.
The newcomers entered are not from the usual 2yo stables and Mick Channon
has only put the filly Musiara in who was well beaten behind Monsieur Chevalier
at Folkestone.
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On Thursday there will be a 5f maiden fillies' race which often produces
a number of useful fillies. In 2007 Barry Hills ran two with Mookhlesa
wining and the later Listed winner Spinning Lucy placed. Last year's event
included four fillies that placed in Group events (without any really
proving Group class) and another who was second in a Listed race. The winner
- Danehill Destiny was a rare debut winner for William Haggas and owner
by the Cheveley Park Stud. She started favourite for the Queen Mary and
finished last. Mr Hills ran two who both made, perhaps blagged, places
in Group races in the season.
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Mr Hills has three entered this year with Mexican Milly perhaps the preferred
along with Our Dream Queen (sibling to Group 1 winner Spinning Queen) &
Angel Of Fashion. Mr Hills started the Group winner Silk Blossom in the
2007 edition to add to the weight that these three out to include at least
one really good one. Mr Haggas has another Cheveley Park filly with Six
Wives and he doesn't start horses this early in the season without good
reason.
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With Newbury following on Friday & Saturday there is good reason to
believe the week will add some significant horses for the 2009 season to
the solid set of promising debut winners to date.
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