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The first day of the, now 2 day, Newmarket Craven Meeting sees a
Conditions event with and uneven profile but promising to be highly informative
despite the small field. This used to be a three day meeting and there
was a colts' & geldings' maiden on the, now missing, day which Barry
Hills used to start his good male 2yos in. With that gone he seems to have
started using alternatives but not consistently. Last year - Result
- he ran three in this race on debut and they finished in the first five.
Ouqba proved one of the best he had in a thinnish year without being that
good and the other two proved to be OR75-85 handicappers. This year he
has he has no runner in this race and Red Jazz won on debut at Windsor
and would be a typical profile for a horse he used to start at this meeting.
Always something new to learn.
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A look at last year's race shows a usual feature in that the best of the
horses with previous wins & places are the place to look for winners.
This field has three very promising debut winners in opposition so it would
be a surprise if they were beaten by a newcomer or even Red Jazz's runner-up
Iver Bridge Lad. His performance will be an interesting link to
that horse but he ought to be left behind by the better ones again although
his size, notable for a very cheap purchase, has lifted him above the no-scope
dross. He doesn't get any weight from two of the winners - Monsieur
Chevalier & Soccer who both won in lower class events so
are unpenalised.
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Which brings us to Hearts Of Fire who has a 6lbs penalty for his
win because the Brocklesby is a Class 4 Conditions race and not a maiden
or auction. The penalty is perhaps a reason why the winner at Doncaster
infrequently runs in this race. The last two to try both finished third
with The Lord in 2002 and Next Time Around in 2004. On his debut Hearts
Of Fire did not stand out as a better type and looked like an early 2yo
that still needed to strengthen. Despite that appearance he clearly is
a natural and he was pulling away from, stalled & fading, rivals at
the finish. At the headline level the race is 'working out well' but the
subsequent wins, Archers Road aside, have been moderate. At present it
seems likely that the first three from Doncaster were ok as OR79+ types
but you were quickly into average to moderate types after that and that
made his clear win look better. On physical grounds and with the penalty
he looks an unlikely victor.
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That feeling is enhanced because there are two others in the field who
made very good debuts, are not penalised and are probably better physical
types. Richard Hannon is an ultra-reliable trainer and just does not muck
about when choosing to run horses in this race. With 100+ runners each
year he has the pool of talent to choose from to ensure those chosen are
above average in most years and the market is usually a reasonable indicator
of ability. In recent years his record is :-
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2002 - 4th with Monsieur Boulanger on 3TO after a STO maiden win but at
10/1 & a sure sign of an ordinary one
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2003 - 4th of 4 with 5/6f Signor Panettiere who set a storming pace that
allowed a horse adrift at halfway to trundle into the win
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2004 - Won with Cornus who won his first three races.
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2005 - Won with STO Cool Creek who went on to a Group 2 win.
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2006 - Won with Gilded who was also successful in the Queen Mary; Resignation
made his debut at 5/1 & a later Conditions winner
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2007 - None, His debut winner Fat Boy missed the race & ran at Ascot
in early May instead.
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2008 - Later start to his season & ran newcomer Icesolator who was
unplaced at 8/1 and won three races up to Listed level at 2yo.
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Monsieur Chevalier had a bit of help in his debut win by being well drawn
and opposed by moderate horses but he won comfortably and finishing strongly.
With Hughes riding he should be the first string and looked a chunkier
type than Hearts Of Fire although medium sized at best. As a debut winner
chosen to come here he ought to run well and appeals much more than Hearts
Of Fire. He may lack for real 5f pace but should be staying on up the hill
in the final furlong and a solid win chance.
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Hannon also runs the newcomer Captain Cool in the race as second
string with Ryan Moore the jockey. Using Resignation & Icesolator as
a template you would estimate that this one is an OR80+ horse in the longer
term but shouldn't be ready enough to win today. The market will be useful
is telling you whether he is a lesser type here for a day out (unlikely
& 10/1+) or a more serious horse being tested for the future.
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But, the strongest opposition to the Hannon preferred looks to be Soccer
who made a strikingly good debut by his trainer's standards at Lingfield.
He didn't beat Shark Man nearly as far as Hearts Of Fire but that horse
ran more competently and was receiving weight. It was the manner of the
performance and the physical presence of Soccer that looked a bit different
from the usual. On what we saw that day he is a better long term prospect
than Hearts Of Fire and with more scope to improve to today. As second
or third favourite he would seem a good bet.
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The other two newcomers do not appeal as likely to get involved on the
day with their small weight concession for being on debut. Ant Music
is the first runner for new sire Antonius Pius who wouldn't be obvious
to get early 2yos and the dam has a 7-8f background. The sire has a large
crop of yearlings in 2008 with a high number of 53 sold but for a so-so
average of 16,000gns. Stan Moore has got odd debut winners in maidens but
not this sort of race. When he makes debuts at Ascot or in this type of
race they are typically OR77+ types but also will need time to develop
even if they run well FTO.
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Clive Brittain has had a long career and if you go back far enough early
2yos and Brocklesby runners were part of it. In recent years that hasn't
been the case and runs before later May are rare, as are wins. He gets
odd debut wins with his very best 2yos in mid-season but early runners
usually need to develop. Zero Seven is by the sire Halling who has
never had a 5f 2yo winner nor a winner before July. he dam was a useful
sprint 2yo so may add some zip but along with the trainer's record a horse
that will need the run and a place would indicate a very good one.
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Mention of Halling and sire's capabilities in getting precocious 2yos leads
into thinking about Captain Cool's sire Captain Rio (a son of Pivotal)
who made his name as a 2yo sprinter but in later season after an August
debut and this will be his third year with runners. His sire Pivotal has
a mixed record with 2yos and would not be noted for early season juveniles.
In his first two seasons Captain Rio has got a lot of runners and got up
to an average strike rate in 2008. However, early winners have not been
a feature and his first win in 2007 was in mid-May and last year it was
June 12th. He is a combined 0-24 in the two years by the end of April and
in both years his record has improved after mid-season. Captain Cool is
one of 5 runners he has today with two in each division of the Beverley
auction.
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Now, dealing with trends in sire records is always going to be looking
for moderate shifts away from 'Average' performance in some area rather
than dealing with absolutes. The minute you say a sire like Captain Rio
doesn't get early 2yo winners he will win two of today's races and
prove you 'wrong'. When you look back at his record 5 years from now and
he is 2/90 with pre-May runners in his career people will still be talking
about April 15th, 2009 and how just plain 'Wrong' you were. Which is why
assessing these moderate deviations from the norm for sires needs to be
done over a long period and with a large sample to work on.
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At present the suggestion that he does not get precocious types is a hypothesis
that is being tested and today will be a good indicator. We should remember
that the sire only contributes a little under 50% of the genetic material
a foal gets. With dominance & recessive interaction between the mare's
& sire's genes the actual expressed effects may be well under 50% in
some cases. A 'prepotent' sire would presumably win a lot of those dominance
battles in key areas to make sure he shifted the balance above 50% for
his effects often enough to make him above average.
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All of which makes it a little baffling as to why people can be quite so
plonkingly categoric about a horse's preferred ground just based on it's
sire. Angus McNae on RUK is incapable of naming a wide range of sires without
the addition of what ground this individual will definitely need.
Faced with a horse who has run up a 5-timer on concrete despite being by
a 'Soft Ground Sire' he will aver that he is a bit wary of that horse on
today's good-to-firm. It doesn't make sense to suggest that, say, Captain
Rio is a 'Soft Ground Sire' as many will. On the evidence to date there
may be suggestions that, in general and averaged across his whole progeny,
they have a small tendency to perform better on easier going & fibresand.
But what are you actually going to do with this possible tendency in betting
terms? Let it become the major factor as the top level filter like a McNae?
[The problem is similar to that with newspapers reporting 'Cures For The
Common Cold'. A group of researchers may have spent years producing a precursor
protein necessary to investigate a cure but that cannot be reported in
anything other than 'Cure/No-Cure' mode so will get mis-represented. Another
group may find a statistical improvement using some technique (not a 100%
cure) but a hint that in general those infected may do a bit better. The
statistical nuance has to be reported as a 'Cure for the Common Cold' it
never purported to be just as a hint of ground preferences (not an all-or-nothing
switch between firmer & softer going for all progeny) becomes
'Soft Ground Sire].
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The use of ground preferences for sires has become fashionable in recent
years and talked about in an absolute way that did not use to be common.
An interesting point to consider is that trainers seem to be infected by
this thinking with horses before they have run. The trainer can look at
a horse daily moving on a variety of surfaces and ask the riders how it
felt, take video footage and so forth but still you regularly see them
coming out with the received wisdom about the sire's influence. It would
be fascinating to know how this influence on trainers becomes self-fulfilling.
If the trainers are convinced a horse needs soft because of it's sire are
they only going to run it on that surface? Are they going to choose to
run it on that surface when they have got it to it's peak readiness in
training?
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Going back to Captain Rio his record with 2yo winners doesn't really support
his 'Soft Ground' status, unless the precociousness issues over-rides it.
In 2008 we had a very wet spring through to May which coincided with his
lack of winners. The first wins came on GF in mid season. He then got more
winners on GS or easier in later season but was that non precociousness
going away or ground preference, or both? Most of the going was GS or worse
in later season anyway so difficult to come to a definite conclusion. The
year before he got no early winners in a drier spring and the wins from
mid-season came on a whole range of going.
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At Beverley the pent-up demand for some races for 2yos has led to two Divisions
of the Auction event and both with large fields on 14. Last year also saw
the race split with 21 horses declared across the two races (Results -
DivI & DivII).
Historically this race had a poor record of producing later winners but
that has improved over the last three years although 2008 was not a strong
crop. The first division produced winners of a nursery off OR63 (seller
level), a seller winner and one OR70 type in Tim Easterby's Favourite Girl.
The runners in Div II last year produced just one later winner of a moderate
4 runner race who ended up struggling off OR70 in later season with the
winner of Div I.
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On profile this year's races do not look particularly strong but the better
years have seen surprises from cheap purchases so there may be something
od more long-term significance lurking. As ever mention must be made of
the effect of the draw at Beverley over 5f and fields of 14 on firmer going
should bring those into play even in mixed ability fields like these auctions.
The 5f course is uphill throughout and curves to the right most of the
way meaning a low draw leaves you hung out from the rail and running further.
The slope of the hill also goes away from the stalls meaning if you are
drawn 1 you start lower down than stall 14 as well as being further away
around the bend. Double figure fields on quicker going rarely produce winners
below the 7-8 range unless the pace has been much too strong and the rail
leaders fold.
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In Division I the draw has been mostly kind to the best of the runners
with experience and to Kevin Ryan (also lucky in Division II). Jack
My Boy made a solid debut at Leicester in a race where Archers Road
set a good pace and the first six were within 2.5L at halfway. That group
broke up, probably by ability, in the second half of the race with Jack
My Boy maintaining his position in third while losing 3L to the winner.
He looked a good size and not the typical David Evans whippet and showed
enough pace to be effective on the uphill track here. With a good draw
and the best rating (this will be the first test of it) he comes out top
on profile and should set a good standard.
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Heslington has run a similar race in both outings to date by losing
1-2 lengths at the start and then responding to driving to get involved.
He has then faded before the final furlong both times. The trainer had
his runners ready to show their full ability by STO in 2008 so you do not
expect him to improve much and his fading finishes are a negative. Well
drawn but not a taking prospect. Bronze Beau looked very well prepared
when FTO at Kempton when he made some progress into midfield. He should
be at his peak here and the STO record of the Stubbs' 2yos is a huge positive.
They have produced good profite in three of the last four years and a small
loss on a 1/5 strike rate in the other. On the downside Bronze Beau has
a suspect draw in 6 and looked just an OR60s type in paddock review.
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Kevin Ryan has not used the race much and not for much quality when he
has. His pattern is to debut a few competitive ones in early season and
then go through a lull before running a few better ones later in April
or in early May which can compete to win FTO. He runs one in each division
and both are well drawn so perhaps his lull is going to end a little early
this year and one of the pair is ok? Sharp Eclipse is by Exceed
And Excel who made a good start in 2008 including early wins and the dam
was expensive purchase but ran once in late season as a juvenile before
breaking down. In this group even an average debut by a moderate one by
the trainer could make the first 4 in this group without being a likely
winner in the season.
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There is then a gap in the profile from these four down to the rest of
the field but a few of interest to mention. Pressed for a long priced each-way
poke in the race a good possible would be Bossy Kitty. Nigel Tinkler
has a poor record overall but the earliest ones he runs each year will
include the odd winner he will have, probably at a low level. He also has
his 2yos mostly ready FTO so they can show up well although their form
doesn't tend to progress or even pan out in a predictable manner. Bossy
Kitty has a good draw and a usable 2yo pedigree and using a senior jockey
rather than his wife is a plus. Richard Fahey gets 5f debut winners as
we know and won a division of this race in 2008 although that was a little
unusual and this race looks stronger. Strange Fiction has a poor
draw in 1 and opposable unless he is above average (say OR77+ in this group).
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Gazamali was woefully green on debut but was 8/1 and perhaps was
thought to be capable of some sort of show. A usuable draw so one for the
paddock guy to check. Finally for Div I mention of Time Easterby's A
Touch Of Luck and his first runner of the year. His record with 2yos
has got worse in recent years and debuts are normally uncompetitive. The
exception is the Ripon Maiden later this week which he has won regularly
including the last two years. His runner here has a poor draw and most
unlikely to get involved but quite likely to be a usable 2yo and better
than he will be able to show on the day. A horse to track.
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In summary Jack My Boy has a lot of positives and will set a stiff standard
from a good draw. Bronze Beau appeals more than the fader Heslington to
be placing and a balance between the trainer's STO record and the draw
minus. Ryan's Sharp Eclipse ought to place, 4th at worst, unless the market
says he is a duff one. Each-way possible at longer odds with Bossy Kitty.
Bits and pieces of interest in the others but nothing with the potential
to upset unless they are physically much better than their profile.
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The second Division has been less kind to the runners who placed second
on debut. Mr Smithson made a debut which can be presented in more
than one way. On one hand he finished close to what is probably a good
early 2yo for Bryan Smart is what looked a solid time. Looked at another
way the time was fastish because the conditions were very fast because
of the dry spring in Scotland. He had to be niggled to go the pace and
plugged on into stalled horses when they had worn themselves out with the
friction caused by competing against each other. The reality is probably
somewhere in the middle and a usable OR66 type is what he looked on the
VT. If that is all he is then winning this from box 1 is going to be difficult.
If he uses his hold up and pick-off the stallers run style again then that
does not look powerful enough to get to the front. Something among the
pace nearer the rail will hang on provided they do not go berserk in the
lead.
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Tom Folan, a filly despite the name, made a good debut at Folkestone
but in what was a moderate race overall. The trainer has the debuts well
primed and you suspect there is little improvement. Draw 6 is just the
wrong side of borderline and another who perhaps has a bit less punch to
deliver than the '2' beside her name suggests.
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So, the race has a set-up whereby a well drawn newcomer of OR72+ quality
has a chance. Kevin Ryan has taken over some of the John Fretwell 2yos
since he parted company with Eoghan O'Neill early in 2008. Mr Fretwell
likes his 2yo racing and likes strong debuts of the kind Bryan McMahon
used to deliver for him and O'Neill did in later season. The first Fretwell
runner of the year was Out The Ring for Mr Ryan and that was backed before
finishing second FTO. Masked Dance is for the same combination and
is well drawn. So, the Market should be informative up to a point because
if it is some good Mr Fretwell should have his tenner each-way on. Ahh,
but he's by Captain Rio and he doesn't get winners in April. We shall see.
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Fretwell's Out The Ring was thumped on debut by a David Evans special in
Star Rover and that trainer had another debut win on Monday. The filly
Mind Of Her Own has a prime draw and receives 9lbs from Masked Dance
so has to be considered a contender. The Fahey runner Maidtorun
is better drawn but light on profile generally in this group. Perhaps of
more interest for the day is Agent Boo for Ed McMahon who has a
good FTO record overall although his earliest runners tend to be a little
behind his average. The pedigree is fine for 5f early so a chance from
a good draw but perhaps come up a bit short. If Paul Midgley has anything
usable in his pile of cheapo 2yos this year we haven't seen it yet and
the debut runs have been bad. Dispol Kabira is best drawn but another
whose profile is too thin to believe, in advance, she is up to competing
for more than 3-and-a-bit furlongs.
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In summary a tricky choice with two softish looking debut placers being
poorly drawn and both having used hold-up tactics on debut which would
need the leaders to stop a bit. You cannot quite see either going to 'fetch'
a leader still rolling along in the final furlong. Masked Dance ought to
be better than the average Ryan debut and the market of interest. Each-way
prospects for Mind Of Her Own & Agent Boo.
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