British 2yo Racing - 2009 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - April 15th 
Races :-
  • Newmarket 2:25, 5f Conditions (3)
  • Beverley 1:30, 5f Auction (5) Div I
  • Beverley 2:35, 5f Auction (5) Div II

  •   April 15th Summary : 
     
    •  The first day of the, now 2 day, Newmarket Craven Meeting sees a Conditions event with and uneven profile but promising to be highly informative despite the small field. This used to be a three day meeting and there was a colts' & geldings' maiden on the, now missing, day which Barry Hills used to start his good male 2yos in. With that gone he seems to have started using alternatives but not consistently. Last year - Result - he ran three in this race on debut and they finished in the first five. Ouqba proved one of the best he had in a thinnish year without being that good and the other two proved to be OR75-85 handicappers. This year he has he has no runner in this race and Red Jazz won on debut at Windsor and would be a typical profile for a horse he used to start at this meeting. Always something new to learn.
    • A look at last year's race shows a usual feature in that the best of the horses with previous wins & places are the place to look for winners. This field has three very promising debut winners in opposition so it would be a surprise if they were beaten by a newcomer or even Red Jazz's runner-up Iver Bridge Lad. His performance will be an interesting link to that horse but he ought to be left behind by the better ones again although his size, notable for a very cheap purchase, has lifted him above the no-scope dross. He doesn't get any weight from two of the winners - Monsieur Chevalier & Soccer who both won in lower class events so are unpenalised.
    • Which brings us to Hearts Of Fire who has a 6lbs penalty for his win because the Brocklesby is a Class 4 Conditions race and not a maiden or auction. The penalty is perhaps a reason why the winner at Doncaster infrequently runs in this race. The last two to try both finished third with The Lord in 2002 and Next Time Around in 2004. On his debut Hearts Of Fire did not stand out as a better type and looked like an early 2yo that still needed to strengthen. Despite that appearance he clearly is a natural and he was pulling away from, stalled & fading, rivals at the finish. At the headline level the race is 'working out well' but the subsequent wins, Archers Road aside, have been moderate. At present it seems likely that the first three from Doncaster were ok as OR79+ types but you were quickly into average to moderate types after that and that made his clear win look better. On physical grounds and with the penalty he looks an unlikely victor.
    • That feeling is enhanced because there are two others in the field who made very good debuts, are not penalised and are probably better physical types. Richard Hannon is an ultra-reliable trainer and just does not muck about when choosing to run horses in this race. With 100+ runners each year he has the pool of talent to choose from to ensure those chosen are above average in most years and the market is usually a reasonable indicator of ability. In recent years his record is :-
      • 2002 - 4th with Monsieur Boulanger on 3TO after a STO maiden win but at 10/1 & a sure sign of an ordinary one
      • 2003 - 4th of 4 with 5/6f Signor Panettiere who set a storming pace that allowed a horse adrift at halfway to trundle into the win
      • 2004 - Won with Cornus who won his first three races.
      • 2005 - Won with STO Cool Creek who went on to a Group 2 win.
      • 2006 - Won with Gilded who was also successful in the Queen Mary; Resignation made his debut at 5/1 & a later Conditions winner
      • 2007 - None, His debut winner Fat Boy missed the race & ran at Ascot in early May instead.
      • 2008 - Later start to his season & ran newcomer Icesolator who was unplaced at 8/1 and won three races up to Listed level at 2yo.
    • Monsieur Chevalier had a bit of help in his debut win by being well drawn and opposed by moderate horses but he won comfortably and finishing strongly. With Hughes riding he should be the first string and looked a chunkier type than Hearts Of Fire although medium sized at best. As a debut winner chosen to come here he ought to run well and appeals much more than Hearts Of Fire. He may lack for real 5f pace but should be staying on up the hill in the final furlong and a solid win chance.
    • Hannon also runs the newcomer Captain Cool in the race as second string with Ryan Moore the jockey. Using Resignation & Icesolator as a template you would estimate that this one is an OR80+ horse in the longer term but shouldn't be ready enough to win today. The market will be useful is telling you whether he is a lesser type here for a day out (unlikely & 10/1+) or a more serious horse being tested for the future.
    • But, the strongest opposition to the Hannon preferred looks to be Soccer who made a strikingly good debut by his trainer's standards at Lingfield. He didn't beat Shark Man nearly as far as Hearts Of Fire but that horse ran more competently and was receiving weight. It was the manner of the performance and the physical presence of Soccer that looked a bit different from the usual. On what we saw that day he is a better long term prospect than Hearts Of Fire and with more scope to improve to today. As second or third favourite he would seem a good bet.
    • The other two newcomers do not appeal as likely to get involved on the day with their small weight concession for being on debut. Ant Music is the first runner for new sire Antonius Pius who wouldn't be obvious to get early 2yos and the dam has a 7-8f background. The sire has a large crop of yearlings in 2008 with a high number of 53 sold but for a so-so average of 16,000gns. Stan Moore has got odd debut winners in maidens but not this sort of race. When he makes debuts at Ascot or in this type of race they are typically OR77+ types but also will need time to develop even if they run well FTO.
    • Clive Brittain has had a long career and if you go back far enough early 2yos and Brocklesby runners were part of it. In recent years that hasn't been the case and runs before later May are rare, as are wins. He gets odd debut wins with his very best 2yos in mid-season but early runners usually need to develop. Zero Seven is by the sire Halling who has never had a 5f 2yo winner nor a winner before July. he dam was a useful sprint 2yo so may add some zip but along with the trainer's record a horse that will need the run and a place would indicate a very good one.
    • Mention of Halling and sire's capabilities in getting precocious 2yos leads into thinking about Captain Cool's sire Captain Rio (a son of Pivotal) who made his name as a 2yo sprinter but in later season after an August debut and this will be his third year with runners. His sire Pivotal has a mixed record with 2yos and would not be noted for early season juveniles. In his first two seasons Captain Rio has got a lot of runners and got up to an average strike rate in 2008. However, early winners have not been a feature and his first win in 2007 was in mid-May and last year it was June 12th. He is a combined 0-24 in the two years by the end of April and in both years his record has improved after mid-season. Captain Cool is one of 5 runners he has today with two in each division of the Beverley auction.
    • Now, dealing with trends in sire records is always going to be looking for moderate shifts away from 'Average' performance in some area rather than dealing with absolutes. The minute you say a sire like Captain Rio doesn't get early 2yo winners he will win two of today's races and prove you 'wrong'. When you look back at his record 5 years from now and he is 2/90 with pre-May runners in his career people will still be talking about April 15th, 2009 and how just plain 'Wrong' you were. Which is why assessing these moderate deviations from the norm for sires needs to be done over a long period and with a large sample to work on. 
    • At present the suggestion that he does not get precocious types is a hypothesis that is being tested and today will be a good indicator. We should remember that the sire only contributes a little under 50% of the genetic material a foal gets. With dominance & recessive interaction between the mare's & sire's genes the actual expressed effects may be well under 50% in some cases. A 'prepotent' sire would presumably win a lot of those dominance battles in key areas to make sure he shifted the balance above 50% for his effects often enough to make him above average.
    • All of which makes it a little baffling as to why people can be quite so plonkingly categoric about a horse's preferred ground just based on it's sire. Angus McNae on RUK is incapable of naming a wide range of sires without the addition of what ground this individual will definitely need. Faced with a horse who has run up a 5-timer on concrete despite being by a 'Soft Ground Sire' he will aver that he is a bit wary of that horse on today's good-to-firm. It doesn't make sense to suggest that, say, Captain Rio is a 'Soft Ground Sire' as many will. On the evidence to date there may be suggestions that, in general and averaged across his whole progeny, they have a small tendency to perform better on easier going & fibresand. But what are you actually going to do with this possible tendency in betting terms? Let it become the major factor as the top level filter like a McNae? [The problem is similar to that with newspapers reporting 'Cures For The Common Cold'. A group of researchers may have spent years producing a precursor protein necessary to investigate a cure but that cannot be reported in anything other than 'Cure/No-Cure' mode so will get mis-represented. Another group may find a statistical improvement using some technique (not a 100% cure) but a hint that in general those infected may do a bit better. The statistical nuance has to be reported as a 'Cure for the Common Cold' it never purported to be just as a hint of ground preferences (not an all-or-nothing switch between firmer & softer going for all progeny) becomes 'Soft Ground Sire].
    • The use of ground preferences for sires has become fashionable in recent years and talked about in an absolute way that did not use to be common. An interesting point to consider is that trainers seem to be infected by this thinking with horses before they have run. The trainer can look at a horse daily moving on a variety of surfaces and ask the riders how it felt, take video footage and so forth but still you regularly see them coming out with the received wisdom about the sire's influence. It would be fascinating to know how this influence on trainers becomes self-fulfilling. If the trainers are convinced a horse needs soft because of it's sire are they only going to run it on that surface? Are they going to choose to run it on that surface when they have got it to it's peak readiness in training?
    • Going back to Captain Rio his record with 2yo winners doesn't really support his 'Soft Ground' status, unless the precociousness issues over-rides it. In 2008 we had a very wet spring through to May which coincided with his lack of winners. The first wins came on GF in mid season. He then got more winners on GS or easier in later season but was that non precociousness going away or ground preference, or both? Most of the going was GS or worse in later season anyway so difficult to come to a definite conclusion. The year before he got no early winners in a drier spring and the wins from mid-season came on a whole range of going.
    • ----------------------------------------------------
    • At Beverley the pent-up demand for some races for 2yos has led to two Divisions of the Auction event and both with large fields on 14. Last year also saw the race split with 21 horses declared across the two races (Results - DivI & DivII). Historically this race had a poor record of producing later winners but that has improved over the last three years although 2008 was not a strong crop. The first division produced winners of a nursery off OR63 (seller level), a seller winner and one OR70 type in Tim Easterby's Favourite Girl. The runners in Div II last year produced just one later winner of a moderate 4 runner race who ended up struggling off OR70 in later season with the winner of Div I. 
    • On profile this year's races do not look particularly strong but the better years have seen surprises from cheap purchases so there may be something od more long-term significance lurking. As ever mention must be made of the effect of the draw at Beverley over 5f and fields of 14 on firmer going should bring those into play even in mixed ability fields like these auctions. The 5f course is uphill throughout and curves to the right most of the way meaning a low draw leaves you hung out from the rail and running further. The slope of the hill also goes away from the stalls meaning if you are drawn 1 you start lower down than stall 14 as well as being further away around the bend. Double figure fields on quicker going rarely produce winners below the 7-8 range unless the pace has been much too strong and the rail leaders fold.
    • In Division I the draw has been mostly kind to the best of the runners with experience and to Kevin Ryan (also lucky in Division II). Jack My Boy made a solid debut at Leicester in a race where Archers Road set a good pace and the first six were within 2.5L at halfway. That group broke up, probably by ability, in the second half of the race with Jack My Boy maintaining his position in third while losing 3L to the winner. He looked a good size and not the typical David Evans whippet and showed enough pace to be effective on the uphill track here. With a good draw and the best rating (this will be the first test of it) he comes out top on profile and should set a good standard.
    • Heslington has run a similar race in both outings to date by losing 1-2 lengths at the start and then responding to driving to get involved. He has then faded before the final furlong both times. The trainer had his runners ready to show their full ability by STO in 2008 so you do not expect him to improve much and his fading finishes are a negative. Well drawn but not a taking prospect. Bronze Beau looked very well prepared when FTO at Kempton when he made some progress into midfield. He should be at his peak here and the STO record of the Stubbs' 2yos is a huge positive. They have produced good profite in three of the last four years and a small loss on a 1/5 strike rate in the other. On the downside Bronze Beau has a suspect draw in 6 and looked just an OR60s type in paddock review.
    • Kevin Ryan has not used the race much and not for much quality when he has. His pattern is to debut a few competitive ones in early season and then go through a lull before running a few better ones later in April or in early May which can compete to win FTO. He runs one in each division and both are well drawn so perhaps his lull is going to end a little early this year and one of the pair is ok? Sharp Eclipse is by Exceed And Excel who made a good start in 2008 including early wins and the dam was expensive purchase but ran once in late season as a juvenile before breaking down. In this group even an average debut by a moderate one by the trainer could make the first 4 in this group without being a likely winner in the season.
    • There is then a gap in the profile from these four down to the rest of the field but a few of interest to mention. Pressed for a long priced each-way poke in the race a good possible would be Bossy Kitty. Nigel Tinkler has a poor record overall but the earliest ones he runs each year will include the odd winner he will have, probably at a low level. He also has his 2yos mostly ready FTO so they can show up well although their form doesn't tend to progress or even pan out in a predictable manner. Bossy Kitty has a good draw and a usable 2yo pedigree and using a senior jockey rather than his wife is a plus. Richard Fahey gets 5f debut winners as we know and won a division of this race in 2008 although that was a little unusual and this race looks stronger. Strange Fiction has a poor draw in 1 and opposable unless he is above average (say OR77+ in this group). 
    • Gazamali was woefully green on debut but was 8/1 and perhaps was thought to be capable of some sort of show. A usuable draw so one for the paddock guy to check. Finally for Div I mention of Time Easterby's A Touch Of Luck and his first runner of the year. His record with 2yos has got worse in recent years and debuts are normally uncompetitive. The exception is the Ripon Maiden later this week which he has won regularly including the last two years. His runner here has a poor draw and most unlikely to get involved but quite likely to be a usable 2yo and better than he will be able to show on the day. A horse to track.
    • In summary Jack My Boy has a lot of positives and will set a stiff standard from a good draw. Bronze Beau appeals more than the fader Heslington to be placing and a balance between the trainer's STO record and the draw minus. Ryan's Sharp Eclipse ought to place, 4th at worst, unless the market says he is a duff one. Each-way possible at longer odds with Bossy Kitty. Bits and pieces of interest in the others but nothing with the potential to upset unless they are physically much better than their profile.
    • The second Division has been less kind to the runners who placed second on debut. Mr Smithson made a debut which can be presented in more than one way. On one hand he finished close to what is probably a good early 2yo for Bryan Smart is what looked a solid time. Looked at another way the time was fastish because the conditions were very fast because of the dry spring in Scotland. He had to be niggled to go the pace and plugged on into stalled horses when they had worn themselves out with the friction caused by competing against each other. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle and a usable OR66 type is what he looked on the VT. If that is all he is then winning this from box 1 is going to be difficult. If he uses his hold up and pick-off the stallers run style again then that does not look powerful enough to get to the front. Something among the pace nearer the rail will hang on provided they do not go berserk in the lead. 
    • Tom Folan, a filly despite the name, made a good debut at Folkestone but in what was a moderate race overall. The trainer has the debuts well primed and you suspect there is little improvement. Draw 6 is just the wrong side of borderline and another who perhaps has a bit less punch to deliver than the '2' beside her name suggests. 
    • So, the race has a set-up whereby a well drawn newcomer of OR72+ quality has a chance. Kevin Ryan has taken over some of the John Fretwell 2yos since he parted company with Eoghan O'Neill early in 2008. Mr Fretwell likes his 2yo racing and likes strong debuts of the kind Bryan McMahon used to deliver for him and O'Neill did in later season. The first Fretwell runner of the year was Out The Ring for Mr Ryan and that was backed before finishing second FTO. Masked Dance is for the same combination and is well drawn. So, the Market should be informative up to a point because if it is some good Mr Fretwell should have his tenner each-way on. Ahh, but he's by Captain Rio and he doesn't get winners in April. We shall see.
    • Fretwell's Out The Ring was thumped on debut by a David Evans special in Star Rover and that trainer had another debut win on Monday. The filly Mind Of Her Own has a prime draw and receives 9lbs from Masked Dance so has to be considered a contender. The Fahey runner Maidtorun is better drawn but light on profile generally in this group. Perhaps of more interest for the day is Agent Boo for Ed McMahon who has a good FTO record overall although his earliest runners tend to be a little behind his average. The pedigree is fine for 5f early so a chance from a good draw but perhaps come up a bit short. If Paul Midgley has anything usable in his pile of cheapo 2yos this year we haven't seen it yet and the debut runs have been bad. Dispol Kabira is best drawn but another whose profile is too thin to believe, in advance, she is up to competing for more than 3-and-a-bit furlongs.
    • In summary a tricky choice with two softish looking debut placers being poorly drawn and both having used hold-up tactics on debut which would need the leaders to stop a bit. You cannot quite see either going to 'fetch' a leader still rolling along in the final furlong. Masked Dance ought to be better than the average Ryan debut and the market of interest. Each-way prospects for Mind Of Her Own & Agent Boo.

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