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A really interesting maiden at Ripon with four horses with the profiles
to be solid winners and a couple of others with some positive prospects.
The place to start is with Tim Easterby who has won the race with a filly
on debut in each of the last three years (Kerrys Dream, Cristal Clear &
Anglezarke). Go back to 1999 and he won it with Pipalong FTO (older Group
1 sprinter) and in 2000 he won the first Ripon Maiden of the year (earlier
that year) with Romantic Myth who went on to win the Queen Mary. In 2005
he didn't have a runner in the race and won the Haydock maiden a few days
later with Skyelady on debut and then had the second in the Ripon maiden
a week later with the useful filly Lyndalee. The fillies covered have been
his best each season and the ones that have done duty in better races from
the Hilary Needler and upwards.
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So, more than circumstantial evidence that Now is the time to be looking
for him to run his best filly who will probably be his only debut winner
of the season. Add to that this race as the most likely place to be looking
for him to do it. He runs two with the filly Saucy Girl
appearing to be the first string with David Allan riding and the colt Senate
Majority as second string. By the new sire Footstepsinthesand out of
an unraced Grand Lodge mare the pedigree doesn't really say '5f early'
for Saucy Girl. But it has been similar with some of the other fillies
mentioned so you have to trust to some extent that she is ok for the job.
His normal debut runs are uncompetitive and ones by males very rare. Which
means that Senate Majority is a development project and has prospects of
being a winner of some sort but not to compete for the win FTO.
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That would make the race a good watch alone but the general set-up makes
it more intriguing. Here Now And Why made what appeared to be a
well above average debut for the Kevin Ryan stable when pressing Archers
Road for a long way at Leicester and never fully cracking as the pair went
clear of the others. Just how strong the Brocklesby form up front and subsidiary
races like Leicester are will be much clearer after Wednesday's races when
Heart Of Fire runs at Newmarket and Jack My Boy (3rd at Leicester) appears
to have a good win opportunity at Beverley [this preview was written on
Tuesday]. If the HNAW debut was as good as it looked then modest improvement
would make him a big obstacle to get past. But not unbeatable and he wouldn't
be value as Evens favourite or less as some of the early tissues have him
at. The trainer has a moderate record in the race as well and the overall
field has some strength which means that he will probably get pressure
in the lead rather than an easy time.
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Last year's FTO P&L tracking made a small loss of less than 4% on level
stakes at SP across 418 bets. Three of the trainers involved had notable
debut winners in categories they weren't included for which would have
turned that into a profit. David Nicholls was included for the his later
season debuts from September forwards which produced no wins. But he did
have two debut winner with his earliest debut in the season in the first
weeks of My. Both were at 20/1 to give him a profit across all debuts but
not in the narrow category included. Look back to 2005 and he was 2 from
3 and a profit with his March to May debuts but it looked like the FTO
wins were drifting into later season in 2006-7 until last year. Whatever,
we know that Mr Nicholls does get FTO winners and that the early runners
will include some good ones. Mister Manannan cost £30,000
and is by useful sire Desert Style out of a 5f 2yo mare who has already
produced good winners as juveniles. He would be an interesting contender
in any race and brings the possibility that this might be a pretty tough
race by arly season standards.
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Anything more? Well, actually there is. Go back to the end of the 1990s
when Tim Easterby was winning the race and in between Mark Johnston won
the race twice with newcomers. Each year it takes his stable 2-3 weeks
to come to the boil with 2yos assuming some early April kick-offs. This
season is on the script so far with Whippers Love strongly back
in the Brocklesby but a blow-out (not unusual for his early runners) and
Always Dixie a decent third after pressing the pace at Edinburgh. On profile
Whippers Love looks a believable OR80+ zippy 2yo and with a break of 18
days to warm up could well be ready to put up his good performance now.
There is also a David Evans newcomer in the race but she is out of a limited
mare and, while likely to be competent, should come up short for quality
in this race.
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In summary a fascinating race with much more depth than the headline of
a strong STO runner from a major Northern stable likely to start at a short
SP would make it seem. Here Now And Why getting taken on by something,
probably Whippers Love, to soften up the race for Saucy Girl & Mister
Manannan to get involved in the last furlong if they can stay close enough
a real possibility.
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At Newmarket there is a fillies' maiden which usually has a mixed
ability field but normally some better quality in it. Last year's race
included four that placed at Listed or Group level later without having
a real star in it. In the past Barry Hills has been the source of a lot
of the quality with Group winner Silk Blossom successful on debut in 2006
with the ordinary maiden winner Frisky Talk 8th, the readier 5f type Mookhlesa
winning on debut for him in 2007 with the later 6f Listed race winner Spinning
Lucy in 3rd and last year he had the 2nd & 8th with fillies who went
on to place in Group races. He entered three this year but runs only Mexican
Milly who appears bafflingly cheap as a £7,600 2yo (€10,000
as a yearling) and a moderate pedigree. As with Tim Easterby you have to
trust Mr Hills that he has chosen a usable one but a bit light on profile
to be a sure one to compete for the debut win.
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There is enough is opposition to feel you can pass on Mexican Milly on
profile unless you take to her in the paddock. William Haggas doesn't run
2yos until into the high summer to a good aproximation and the wins may
not start until into July. Which means that the occasional early debuts
are normally for a reason. They will often include better types and most
often his fastest filly. He doesn't go for early 2yos but he does like
to find a 'Queen Mary Filly' if he can. Last year he won this race with
a rare early filly with Danehill Destiny for major stud Cheveley Park.
She won a conditions event STO but bombed out as Queen Mary favourite and
didn't recapture her best form (or just didn't have the scope to develop).
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Mr Haggas is back on script this year with Six Wives a home bred
fillies for the same owners. She is the first British 2yo runner for French
sire Kingsalsa who was a fast 2yo in his day and the dam was a 2yo sprinter.
So, another definite winner of some sort but unlikely the trainer will
win the race twice in two years and perhaps a placer.
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Richard Hannon has not used the race for high class fillies in the way
Barry Hills' has. His last 4 runners in the race have produced 3 ordinary
maiden winners and one of those was River Rye last year who ended up in
sellers because of her lack of size and scope. Crown was backed
at Bath as if she was useful but never got involved and was given a classic
Hughes 'Trial Ride' in being held up at the back of the pack and then switched
out late to see what the response was. Well, it was ok but not electric
and was done against a fading group of not very good ones. The clueless
Avonvalley came from behind to motor past her with a clear run. She is
probably some sort of OR80ish filly and a maiden winner rather than useful
given she couldn't go close to winning on natural ability on debut. She
will be at her peak her so should run well but not obvious value given
that runners with form can get pushed to shorter SPs.
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In a difficult race to pick in on profile with the Hills filly a bit light
in some areas Habaayib appeals as a solid each-way type who may
well be value. Hamdan Al Maktoum likes to have a group of competitive early
2yos and buys expensive sprint bred 2yos to get these rather than looking
for 3yo Classic potential. This filly cost 130,000 guineas and by Royal
Applause who made his name with fast juveniles. The dam is stouter but
an early debut for Ed Dunlop would help to convince you this one takes
after the sire. Mr Dunlop has just an average record with his 2yos and
most debuts are set-ups to peak STO. But, like Mr Haggas, his early debuts
are chosen for a reason and they are readier than his normal newcomers.
He has only had 3 debut runners in April since 2001 and they have all been
with cheap fillies and all have placed on debut including a 3rd in this
race with a limited non-winner. An early debut for Habaayib who has more
weighty credentials on pedigree and cost makes her look like a better debut
from the trainer who ought to place and may well win.
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Paul Cole is still in his early debut period when places are mixed in with
less good debuts. He runs Silver Symphony who has an unconvincing
profile to be the better type he needs to get a debut win. Some interest
in the others but worth checking out Zambuka who is trained by Roger
Curtis but is a Paul Blockley project of some sort and a sibling of Lady
Deauville who did so well for the trainer he thought about appealing for
a while to keep his licence long enough to win a Group race with her. Blockley,
err Curtis, does get debut wins with useful ones and they do get supported
in the Market. One to track.
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An auction race at Wolverhampton with the Brocklesby 5th & 6th
in opposition. Could It Be Magic was 4th in the line of six leaders
through halfway before fading to 6th and Shark Man ran the opposite race
by being well back in 12th and plugging on to 5th in centre track through
the faders. He ran a similar non-attacking race to get from 5th to 2nd
at Lingfield. A tight match-up between the pair and their difference
in run style and their draw will be interesting to watch. 26 of the last
34 5f winners at the track have come from stalls 1-3 and Shark Man is in
box 3. Being drawn 9 as Could It Be Magic is a disadvantage although slightly
less here with some uncompetitive runners.
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Front running from the three lowest draws has produced a better than 25%
strike rate but, oddly, tracking the leader in second is a no-no and 1/34.
Either get to the lead or track in 3rd or 4th is the best patch to success.
Which means that Shark Man would perhaps like to see CIBM press forward
to lead from his wide draw because this very rarely works and he would
be setting himself up for a close enough tracker to jump to the win in
the final furlong.
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The other runner of interest is Dancing Freddy who is well drawn
in 1 and runs for a trainer who used to get early season debut winners
regularly. He might have made the debuts a bit less ready in the last couple
of years but this race has the set-up for him to go well against the pair
with previous solid runs.
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