-
Well, well, Alan Bailey you old fox, not as daft as you look. Not
had a debut winner since 1999 then wins two on the same card in April 2008
in London Bus manner. One of those was Aspen Darlin who got bigger and
leggier through the season and ended winning at Group 3 level and placing
in the Cheveley Park Stakes. A very good buy for €10,000, she was,
and not the sort of thing you expect him to repeat quickly. Then up pops
Its Alright to win the fillies' maiden at Newmarket today, (Picture
- Mr Bailey is the old chap in the foreground looking over his shoulder.
Yes, Jimmy, we have heard the one about a horse walking into a pub and
sidling up to the bar..). This one cost €8,000 so is she another Aspen
Darlin? A story for another day, perhaps Sunday.
-
Old jokes can brings us to the subject of the Newbury maiden on Friday
and what Johnny G. is up to? Going back to the three-way sketch set-up
with a working class know-my-place type, a middle class bank manager and
a tall, jut-jawed, intellectually effortless 'upper' we have decided that
Bill Turner can play the Ronnie Corbett role and Mr Gosden will be spot
on for the Cleese superior one. Not sure about the middle though? Once
you've removed the females, the Irishmen, the ones from the 'Livestock'
backgrounds and assorted toffs you don't have a lot left. What's your background
Mr Bailey?
-
Mr Gosden rarely has runners before May and his record has got less 'Early'
in recent years with no winner until into June since 2005. He sees debuts
as educational introductions and the results can be variable. In general
the debut wins point towards a useful one getting it done on ability and
who will go on to compete at OR90+ & higher. The last time he had debut
runners in April was 2004 when he had a batch of early 2yos for Sheikh
Mohammed. Prince Charming won on his April 10th debut then an Ascot conditions
event in early May before coming up short in Listed & Group events.
On the same day Mystical Land was 2nd at 5/1 and won his Maiden on May
5th. He proved up to Group Class and finished second in the Norfolk Stakes
at Royal Ascot. The other late April debut was unplaced and never ran again.
-
Clan Piper has a lot of similarities to those 2004 horses started
off with the ownership being by Sheikh Mohammed's wife Princess Haya. He
cost 100,000gns and has a 'Sprint 2yo' pedigree rather than being a more
3yo+ prospect. The sire got a raft of early sprint winners in his first
season in 2008 and the dam has produced a 5f 2yo debut winner in April
along with a useful 2yo by Montjeu. This is likely to be a 'Royal Ascot'
class 2yo but the question is will he be ready enough FTO? A tricky call
unless you have seen him before the race and seen what he is opposed
by. A working rule would be that he wouldn't be much value at 7/2 or less.
-
The race is unusual overall starting with the big field of 14. A typical
year will have a Hannon, Channon & Barry Hills runner accompanied by
the odd good one from an occasional trainer and a bit of garbage come down
from Lambourn for the day out. Channon won it in 2002 & 2004 (no 2003
version), Hills in 2005 and Hannon in 2006. The last two winners have been
good ones from 'irregulars' who have seen off the best of the reps from
the usual three handlers. Winker Watson won in 2007 and last year Johnny
Portman had a rare debut winner at 33/1 with Baycat. All but one of the
winners since 2002 have gone on to win at Conditions level at least and
compete in Listed+ races.
-
So, a race which should produce at lest one good 2yo and Clan Piper is
a prime candidate but Gosden debuts can be a bit flaky. What about the
usuals? Me Hannon runs two with first string Planet Red & Once
Cool Buck looking the second string. Mr Hannon's recent record shows
hints that the SP level is useful as it often is :-
-
2005 = Caan 3rd at 10/1 & a non-winner, Ocean Pride 5th at 7/1 and
a solid maiden winner later
-
2006 = Cav Okay 3/1 and ironed out a thinner fields than it promised on
the day.
-
2007 = Party In The Park 3rd at 16/1 and a non-winner
-
2008 = Sun Ship 3rd at 11/2 and a solid maiden winner.
-
If one of them starts longer than 8/1 then they probably aren't much good
and OR70ish with a breeze behind them. In the 4/1 to 8/1 zone and they
are ok sorts but perhaps not good enough to win on debut. A bit of late
support (after the jockeys have reported to the connections what the buzz
in the weighing room is) at 4/1 or less and probably a better type with
some chance of a 'Cav Okay' type effort rather than a Richard Hughes rocking-horse
ride.
-
Mick Channon hasn't had a lot of runners so far but he is pretty much on
his normal pattern. He started with a couple of solid naturals who have
both won (Archers Road & Leleyf) and has followed that with some moderate
ones and home breds. In a normal season we would see some better ones this
season including at Newmarket. None there but he runs two here with a couple
of famous footballers for the teenagers - Di Stefano & Lofthouse.
The first of those appears the first string on pedigree with Lofthouse
bred by one of his mates from his in-house stallion Hunting Lion.
-
Remember that Mr Channon is less of a FTO trainer than Hannon or Gosden
and aside from being on the lookout for a batch of good ones in May you
can usually ignore all his FTOs and shrug off the odd winner. He did not
have a runner in 2006 or 2008 and hints of the SP being helpful with how
good they might be in the long-term in the other years. In 2005 Zato was
4th at 13/8 and proved good class and made the first 4 in the Coventry
Stakes.. In 2007 he ran the fizzy Legendary Guest who was a surprise 2nd
at 9/1 and took time to win and proved to be an OR80ish handicapper.
-
Barry Hills looks to have started his early colts with Swilly Ferry &
Red Jazz being his only males to run so far. He normally runs a good group
of 2yos at the Newmarket Craven meeting but has none in the Conditions
race and only ran the cheap breeze-up buy Mexican Milly yesterday
in the fillies' maiden behind Its Alright. She looked ok in a small group
but bandaged behind (unusual for a Hills horse) and an odd, rangy mover
behind. Was she the best he could find in the females he has? Perhaps not
because he entered two other fillies in the race and they are both here
to take on the colts (more oddness in the race shape) with Our Dream
Queen looking first string over Angel Of Fashion. If this pair
are less good than Mexican Milly they should be starting at 12/1 and more
and are not going to get into the race. If Our Dream Queen is actually
the best of his early fillies then she should be 8/1 or less and can compete
for the places.
-
Paul Cole runs State Fair for the Elite Racing Club and another
who should run well and a good bet to make the first four. The trainer
ran Harlech Castle on debut for the owners in 2007 to finish 4th and his
previous early debut for them was Oceans Apart's 2nd of 13 at Newmarket
in April 2005. Johnny Portman has had a useful 2yo in each of the last
two seasons including last year's winner at 33/1. The Previous year it
was Spanish Bounty who would have placed FTO but for being hampered. Spanish
Acclaim brings those two strands together being an expensive sibling
of Spanish Bounty and starting in this race. He is obviously a horse to
track for the future but an unlikely winner in this field.
-
Tom Dascombe (Walkingonthemoon) & Andrew Balding (rare April
runner with Stargaze) bulk up the field with untypical runners and
both would need to be better types to compete. A point of interest, grim
fascination, with trainer Brendan Powell running Pullyourfingerout
who you might say showed some promise in the Brocklesby. But, the trainer
hasn't had a 2yo winner and they do not develop in any worthwhile way so
one to avoid.
-
In summary, and unusual set-up for the race and the Market should be helpful
in judging the ability levels of a number of the main contenders. Clan
Piper likely to be too short to be value & given the chance of an inexperienced
run. State Fair probably fair each-way value and support for Planet Red
on the way to the start would be a good sign.
|
