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The Virtual Paddocks for Beverley on Wednesday = Division
I & Division II. What to make
of the tall, leggy but somewhat sparely made Walkingonthemoon? - Picture
[A]
& [B].
Early, rangy 2yo who handles soft and fit for the day or a longer term
prospect? How did Marine Boy progress from his clear-cut debut win for
the trainer at the course when wound up for the day in 2008?
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Saturday's racing in centre on the Midlands and North with Newbury having
dropped the Fillies' Conditions race that used to be part of the Greenham
Meeting. It often attracted small fields and usually a Channon vs Hannon
bunfight with Stan Moore running a few who proved OR60s as 2yos. Which
means that the maiden at Nottingham probably comes out Top-of-the-Bill
with the Doncaster fillies' race almost certainly a very weak 'Class 4'
event. Remember that Class levels relate to the prize money levels the
racecourse is willing to throw at the event and the actual performance
levels vary hugely along with the quality of the fields.
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Kevin Ryan is getting his season going in typical manner. Each year he
starts off a set of smaller & compact, sprint 2yos in early season.
They will not be wound up for debut and may even look a little flabby (relatively,
see the Beverley VPs of the clueless Sharp Eclipse & the not-that-tight
and fizzy attitude Masked Dance) and if they get involved they usually
fade in the last half furlong. This fade is probably the indication of
a good trainer who can judge how ready his 2yos are rather then them turning
up for debuts in a range of states. These earliest 2yos are rarely amongst
his best over the season and the best of them will top out in the OR80s
somewhere. The ones that are OR72ish will many places but struggle to win
and the odd lesser ones may get dropped to a seller or claimer.
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Now, because he has them is similar states for debut how well they go is
probably a good indicator of how good they actually are. He has run seven
2yos so far this season and Gillburg at Nottingham and Zaskia
at Doncaster are the 3rd & 4th. Given the debuts the horses are usually
pretty close to fully ready for their second run although they might squeeze
out a bit more improvement by mid-season for peak fitness. For reference
here are the B2yoR ratings given to his 7 debut runners to date :-
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Out The Ring = [26], Third on short-break STO to a lower rating.
A smaller limited one lacking scope and probably OR66-72 type.
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Here Now And Why = [43] for his Leicester second. A high rating
for any debut runner this early and only the best of the winning newcomers
have rated higher (Monsieur Chevalier at 45 on top). That would indicate
an OR88+ type 2yo. He became the trainer's first winner of the season on
Thursday with a professional front-running victory at Ripon over what were
probably two above average newcomers.
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Miss Smilla = [15] looking young, dull and incompetent before fading
before normal. Finished behind Mr Smithson who did nothing to uphold the
view of that Musselburgh race as OK. A suspect runner STO.
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Zaskia = [15], looked tiny and faded before the final furlong in
a weak Wolverhampton race. Finished behind Blue Bond who had his ears scrubbed
off throughout and got to third. He runs in the claimer at Thirsk today
to give another indicator that a poor form level in that race was likely.
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Gillburg = [35], got outpaced by Star Rover and Red Avalanche at
Nottingham FTO but responded and made a noticeable effort to pick up which
took him away from the rest of the field. Stalled later in the final furlong
as would be expected rather than before the last furlong is even reached
like the duffer ones. An above average debut, the trainer now into winning
form with STOs and clearly a good favourite on profile.
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Sharp Eclipse = [10], looked clueless in the prelims at Beverley
and lost 6-7L at the start and plugged on to 5th without getting into the
race. Unlike a Zaskia he probably could have recorded a higher rating FTO
with a competent run but on paddock review an OR60s type and not one to
be looking to follow STO.
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Masked Dance = [15], a better model of horse than Sharp Eclipse
and better than Fratellino who the Division of the Beverley race he ran
in. Unlike the Div I rep he was too fizzy for the day and his flabbiness.
He belted off in the lead and faded badly later on but inside the last
furlong. Probably capable of above OR70 but not particularly exciting.
What does owner John Fretwell make of the Ryan methods with the 2yos? He
was at Kempton & Newcastle to see both Out The Ring defeats and at
Beverley to see Masked Dance's effort. Bryan McMahon would have provided
him with 3-4 juvenile winners by this stage in the season and could have
got your Labrador rated OR85 on early season for.
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Which brings us to the question of whether there is anything to give Gillburg
a race? Ed McMahon, Bryan's lad, has Military Call and probably
drawn poorly on the wing. This one is a £42,000 buy for Mr. Fretwell
with an all-2yo pedigree. Hs dam did not win at 2yo but was rated over
OR70 and was down to OR49 for her maiden breaking win at 4yo (failing to
train on...). Mr McMahon isn't the premium soup-up merchant his dad was
but does get an above average number of FTO wins. Last year he had two
debuts wins with Mr Fretwell horses and 3 others placed. The owner likes
his 2yo racing and his horses running so the early debuts will include
the better ones he has.
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The trainer had his first runner of the season with Agent Boo at Beverley
and he was close to the fittest in his group but a light-framed and limited
type and faded. In general the earliest debuts tend to a bit below the
best of his FTO wins as the stable heats up. You would presume this one
is Ok but will struggle to deal with Gillburg if that one is 'as advertised'
but should get a place.
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Richard Hannon has only used the race once in recent years and we are in
a lull period when he typically runs only a few on debut and they will
be at Newbury & Newmarket. A recent TV stable visit showed Mr Hannon
watching a stream of horses going past him with him staring at them intently.
At intervals he would point at one of the horses receding from view and
say to his assistant son 'That one's ready..'. Which is how it works,
when he thinks they are ready to go they get declared and off they go.
Which means that King's Approach is here for a reason and, on balance,
you would expect that he is a solid maiden winner rather than a moderate
one. He is presumably here because he already had two ready to go to Newbury
yesterday so the other one had to go elsewhere. The fact that Planet Red
ran well at Newbury also hints that this one is ok. His previous runner
in the race was the useful, dual winner, Karayel who finished a good second.
He couldn't go to Newbury because Mr Hannon won that race by miles with
Cav Okay.
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A few other points of interest but a surprise if any of these could get
into the first two. Ignatieff is another Linda Stubbs' STO runner
and their record with those means it is worth noting them. They have run
four so far this year but there has been little promise in the debut runs.
Bronze Beau was third STO at Beverley and Miss Patteresa runs at
Doncaster to show the stable is into 'STO Mode'. The colt has a tough assignment
at Nottingham and you would think that Miss Patteresa has more chance of
a STO win (where Tom Eaves is riding rather than Ignatieff).
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Secret Millionaire is another chance to learn more about owner impresario
Rob Lloyd and his new trainer Pat Morris (Irish import). His purpose built
stable and string made a bad start in 2008 under David Murray-Smyth and
hence Mr Morris supplanting that handler. This one is a £56,000 2yo
breeze-up buy so was prepared elsewhere until recently but should be a
usable 2yo on profile. The first two debuts for the stable were with moderate
ones who were unplaced at Wolverhampton this week. With a different trainer
you might think this one could be a lurker but we do not know what the
trainer will do.
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Similar comments about Ian Williams who has run hardly any 2yos and a minimal
number of debuts. He ran My Mandy in an early fillies' race at Lingfield
and she was too clueless get involved in a weak race. He entered
Duke Of Rainford in the Brocklesby but after the early run he has presumably
decided to give the pair more time to sharpen up with the colt here and
My Mandy at Doncaster. The colt cost £60,000 and also has a good
2yo pedigree so another to asses for the future without thinking he will
be knowing enough to compete up the front.
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At a low level worth mentioning the £1,600 purchase Ginger Ted.
Why? Because Richard (i.e. R. C. & not Rae) Guest has won a race of
some sort, usually a seller, with his first runner of the season in recent
years. Which means that Ted may be the best of his usable ones. Oh my.
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The 2008 edition of the Doncaster Class 4 was won by Dispol Kylie
on debut. She went on to win twice more including a nursery off OR74 to
give an idea of the quality that was required to wallop the field last
year. The runners behind managed to win a seller and a nursery off OR66
(but that winner down to OR59 at season end). Wedging a rolled 'Racing
Post' in somewhere sideways would be too good for any pundit that prattled
on about one of those 2yos 'Dropping down in Class' as they went to a Class
6 Auction race.
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This year's field on fillies lacks anything with an even half completely
positive profile. The winner ought to come from one of the STO runners
with poor or moderate debut runs or Dispol Keasha in echoes of last
year. The Ryan discussion above probably suggests that Zaskia will come
up short even in this weak race and if she wins then it is the sort of
weak race you should probably be avoiding absenting some paddock notes.
Musiara got outpaced at Folkestone and plugged on a bit but at a
moderate level. She was entered for the Conditions race at Newmarket this
week which was clearly speculative but some improvement clearly gives her
a chance.
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My Mandy & Patteresa Girl ran in the same Lingfield race and blew the
start around 5 & 9 lengths respectively and a little more than those
distances adrift of the leaders at halfway. They both closed up on those
stalled pacemakers in the straight without being as 'eyecatching' as that
relative closing on 'dead' horses made it look. But they have both been
given time to be one the right page today and the Stubbs' STO record is
probably the preferred but without a lot of supporting evidence. Paul Midgley
has trained a lot of 'Dispol' prefixed horses for owner W. Imison that
cost pebbles and now he runs one that cost £16,000 and David Barron
has it. That trainer had his first runner of the year this week when Tres
Coronas was 4th at Beverley (and a good type in the group) and he does
get FTO wins. Dispol Keasha is poorly drawn but this isn't a strong race
on profile.
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In summary a difficult race to weigh up with little firm evidence to grasp.
The winner would normally come from Patteresa Girl or Musiara with the
former a little more value and the lurker would be Dispol Keasha.
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