-
A very quiet week for 2yo racing after a solid start with maidens
at Windsor and Pontefract on Monday. Plenty of flat meetings on Tuesday
to Friday but just a single juvenile event with a low level selling race
at Catterick on Wednesday. Things then pick up again with the maidens on
Saturday which can include some useful types. Some of the space later in
the week will be used to consider the variety of 2yo data that are available
and how they might be used. Obviously this site contains a lot of it and
a book has recently been published (not related to B2yoR in any form) claiming
to be "The first comprehensive examination of 2yo racing in Britain...".
Hmm, I wonder what the 50,000 pages & pictures that make up this site
are doing then? Anyway, perhaps we'll have a look at how that claim may
stand up and use some recommendations that the 'Racing & Football Outlook'
gave for early season to stir through the bowl in front of you, thick to
the point of indigestibility with chopped Stats.
-
Before the previews a brief thought back to Saturday's race at Nottingham.
The debut by Gillburg looked above the trainer's average and he shortened
at odds-on to give the remote viewer the belief that he probably was pretty
good. The paddock review guy had a 'cold shiver' moment when he saw him
for the first time and knew that the rating for the debut run was very
suspect. Hang on though, why was he shortening up so much in the Market?
The paddock view would be that nothing else in the field was up to much
and the Hannon & McMahon runners (Fretwell there to see another one
beaten) added lack of readiness to lack of oomph. So the favourite shortened
because there are no other clues. All it then needs is for the favourite
to add not acting that well on the ground to lack of go and the race is
up for grabs. Which is why you end up with a 50/1 shot beating one at 25/1.
Try looking at this three horse 'Virtual
Paddock' & see whether you can spot which is the beaten odds-on
shot, the 25/1 winner and a 100/1 newcomer who finished near the back.
If you want to back bigger ones with athleticism if you are going to be
taking short odds then shouldn't Gillburg stand out?
-
========================
-
The first full field of 16 declared at Windsor and with some chance
of it being on going a bit firmer than good. In summary in a big field
on firmer going a high draw near to the stands' rail is a big advantage
and the firmer the going the more it expresses itself. Even in mixed ability
maiden races it can make the difference between winning & placing and
a promising run in the 4th to 6th range. If a horse gets an easy lead on
the rail while the rest race off it and get in each other's way then it
can lead to clear winning margins which so not really reflect the relative
abilities on show.
-
On first pass this doesn't look a strong maiden with those on top of the
profile having negatives and lacking a strong second tier of possibles.
The best runners from the Hannon, Channon & Barry Hills' stables are
drawn 6, 2 & 1 to add to the feeling that strong runners with full
profiles are absent. If Thomas Baines is actually a bit better than
an average maiden winner which the vibes before his debut suggested then
he might win this race clearly. His trainer had a poor debut at Leicester
in early May & then this one gave an incompetent display is a race
with a good pace here. He at least kept at it well enough to finish third
and clear of the duff ones but well behind the first two.
-
In retrospect that is less of a problem given the winner - Red Jazz - is
one of the best horses we have seen this season. The second - Iver Bridge
Lad - went to Newmarket and put enough pace pressure into that Conditions
race to get rid of the newcomers early and to break the Brocklesby winner
Hearts Of Fire. So, well drawn, and with a vaguely presentable effort first
time if he can put a competent run into place and keep close to the rail
he should set a stiff target for a newcomer to try to close to.
-
Captain Cool ran as second string in the Newmarket Conditions race
and started at 9/1 against winners which is circumstantial evidence that
he is ok. The trainer normally runs solid horses in that race and won it
with Monsieur Chevalier. He broke ok in the race and was held back early
as the pace was strong. Something went wrong after a couple of furlongs
and he started to lose ground and went through halfway in last & 6.5
lengths off the leader. He made a little bit of ground past the other two
floundering newcomers later in the race but did not get near the experienced
horses. He must be better than that and this is the race he should show
what he is really capable of. Stall 6 adds a difficulty and if the Market
says he is here to compete jockey Hughes will have him out smartly and
cut-up whoever he needs to to get over near the rail. He ought to place
and if he is ok give reasonable chase to Thomas Baines.
-
Barry Hills runs two on debut with Be Invincible looking to be first
string over House Red. It is interesting to ponder why these two
are running here at all. Remember that the trainer is sparing with early
runners and tends to send the best ones to Newmarket or Newbury after the
odd very early season runner. He only ran one filly at Newmarket last week
and then two fillies and no colts at Newbury. Something has changed. In
the period between the end of the Newbury meeting he rarely starts any
horses out. In 2005 it there was no debut between the Newmarket Craven
& Guineas meetings, 2006 had only one debut between Newbury and the
Dante meeting in mid-May at York. Last year there was no debut runner between
April 18th to May 27th. 2007 was a slight variation with Huzzah running
in the equivalent of this race and Janina winning on debut at Haydock which
is on Saturday this year.
-
On profile Be Invincible is probably a solid maiden winner or a little
better but will need the run and stall 1 ensures an educational intro.
House Red will be lesser ability and not a sure winner over the season
and not the superior type needed to win this on the trainer's typical preparation.
-
So, four of the 16 horses covered and a couple with debut runs that lacked
readiness and a couple of newcomers who are unlikely to get involved. Mick
Channon, like Hills has a lull with debut runners around this time before
a burst of better debuts sometime in early to mid-May. Following the line
of thinking that if these major trainers are starting horses in these quiet
times for the stables then it is probably for a reason. Those he has started
in later May have tended to be solid (OR75-84) winners. However, they usually
are not good enough to win on debut and the later Listed winner BA Foxtrot
was the one recent surprise at 16/1.
-
If you look at the runners drawn 8-16 then you do not get many obvious
challengers to Thomas Baines to increase the feeling he might win this
clearly without needing to perform that highly. Unless David Evans' filly
Traveller's Kingdom is one of his better debuts he might only have
to deal with the limited Mister Mylo and avoid the antics of New York Lights
to get a lead. This set-up also increases the chances of Hughes being able
to get Captain Cool into a challenging spot without too much exertion.
-
Some points to note with the other runners. Walter Swinburn having a runner
this early is another 'Here for a reason' example with the stable often
not having a runner until midsummer. Monsieur Joe has an good 2yo
pedigree and his sibling won FTO last year in Mid May as part of Mick Channon's
better kick-offs. This one is likely to be an OR70s winner in time type
but the trainer's early debuts can be uncompetitive. He does get FTO winners
but usually after mid-season and often for the 'Family' (he is son-in-law
to Peter Harris & took over his stable). John Spearing frontloads
the competitive 2yos he has into the earliest debuts and the April debuts
at this course have only failed to produce a season winner once wince 2001.
Hachi is a cheap purchase but with a solid 2yo pedigree and if she
is here, now, she can win at some level. Given a draw of 13 she might sneak
a long priced 4th as an indication of her potential.
-
==========
-
The Pontefract maiden fillies' race used to be an auction event
and lower quality but the move to open maiden status has made little difference.
The last two runnings have been won by newcomers who were the longest SPs
in the field from groups of girls who hardly won another race between them.
In 2007 the enormous Loch Jipp won at 50/1 from 12 fillies who managed
a single win, in a claimer, in the rest of the year. The second and third
that day are still maidens and struggling on the aw over the winter. Last
year Richard Guest had the 16/1 winner with a claimer winner in third and
a moderate nursery winner further black. Oddly, the Group placed filly
Rosabee was also in midfield but for a small stable and she developed a
lot physically during the season.
-
This year's race is just begging for a newcomer to win it because the three
fillies with 'form' are so limited. We have seen all that Anjomarba
can so and it is OR50s stuff & Drumpellier is presumably similar
quality in the long run but hasn't even run to that level yet. Kate
Skate comes from poor Bath race with the 5th beaten as a poor favourite
at Newmarket last week and the 8th beaten since in two sellers. She ran
freely that day and didn't get home and should improve but will be setting
a low standard. Which means, as in the last two years, the race is set
up for a newcomer with OR75+ pretensions to win at any price.
-
Tim Easterby runs two with Brinscall the first string but we presumably
saw the best of his fillies with Saucy Girl at Ripon last week. He has
run a filly in each of the last four running of the race and none
have been season winners. The fact that three of those started between
9/2 to 8/1 more a testament to the weakness of the races.
-
John (JJ) Quinn seems to have lost interest in 2yo racing and only has
the odd winner these days. As with a number of other trainers covered in
this preview the earliest debuts each year need particular attention because
they will contain above 50% of his individual winners. Duchess Dora
has a very believable 2yo pedigree and ought be a winner of some sort but
the trainer is a 'Peak STO' type and debut winners would indicate a higher
class type. So a possible for a long price win if she's OR80+ but you would
need some paddock info to spot a 'Loch Jipp' type well-grown one.
-
So, unless you want to get involved with the unappetising prospect of backing
one of the STO fillies the most likely newcomers winners are Elegant
Dancer & Grand Zafeen. The former is the first runner of
the season for Paul Green and all the previous notes about early debuts
and competitive ones apply. Grand Zafeen is a Mick Channon runner so, in
theory, can be ignored. But, she represents a special case because she
is owned by Jaber Abdullah.
-
He has had a range of high class horses with the yard and likes to have
strong debuts. This one is especially special to him because he bred it
himself out of two horses who ran with credit for him. She is by new sire
Zafeen who won a Group 1 for Abdullah as a 3yo out of the cheap filly Majestic
Desert whom he acquired and she placed in two Group 1 events. Mr Abdullah
will be keen to help out Zafeen as a sire and for a debut win or strong
place if this one is any good. Given the notes above about the horses Channon
has started out in late April she should be ok and that may well be enough
in this group.
|