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The following VP - Link - is to
three runners in the fillies' maiden at Haydock (Crown, Tom Folan &
Usquaebach). Remember that on all the VPs presented via the previews right
clicking your mouse over the picture brings up a larger version. You will
then need to press the 'Back' button on your Browser to return to the VP.
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Three interesting races on the day and all with similar shapes to them.
All contain runners that have run before including a number with placed
form at moderate levels. There are also some with unplaced form from better
races or from sources which might lead you to expect a better type than
the debut suggested. In each race a 5-7lbs improvement from the STO horses
sets a standard in the [EST] 18-32 range and certainly reachable by a solid
newcomer in each case.
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These three venues have raced regularly on this Saturday together and the
only change in the race types in the last seven years is that the Ripon
event has switched from being a Fillies' Novice Auction to an Auction Maiden
in 2005. The Novice version used to attract previous debut winners and
often had small fields which are unacceptable to the bookmakers and that
dislike works it's way back through to the racecourses. The pundits on
show will have the chance to use the phrase "you need experience, they
all come of for a run, the winner should come from those on STO..".
Which has some general elements of common sense in it but how much has
it applied to these three races?
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At this time of the year there are, at least, two main interacting functions
at work. We have a lot of inexperienced 2yos so having been through the
drill once must be a help. On the other hand the majority of the 2yos we
have seen to date have been early types and limited physical specimens.
As we go through May we should expect the bigger stables to introduce better
types with longer term prospects. The best of these will wipe away those
with a trundle-through-late to blag-a-volunteer-third-at-Beverley profile
even with bumbling breaks and some greenery. With a dry and warm spring
this year there are hints that a number of stables are a little ahead of
their norm but we are a little behind the normal number of races. This
Saturday stands at the very start of the period when some trainers produce
good ones so the standard of the races can be variable. The split between
debuts winners and successes by horses with form is summarised below for
each venue :-
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Haydock - 4 debut winners and 3 x STO winners since 2002. The debut
winners split into 2 for major Southern Stables (Robinia Parkes for MA
Jarvis in 2002 & Janina for Barry Hills in 2007) and 2 for larger Northern
ones (Skyelady for Tim Easterby in 2005 & Maggie Lou for Kevin Ryan
last year). Skyelady was Easterby's best filly who would normally have
run in the earlier Ripon Maiden so was his 'usual' early FTO win with his
best girl. Maggie Lou beat a field containing only only one on STO (and
moderate). The STO winners have included two for Kevin Ryan & J O'Reilly
when there were no useful Southern newcomers nor Ryan/Easterby ones.
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The other STO winner was Needles And Pins for Michael Bell (major Southern
in this context) who had failed badly on firm going FTO. Switched to soft
turf she won easily from limited types. Two of the winners (both Southern)
have gone on to Listed wins and come up short in Group events. The best
of the others have managed second wins in Novices (MA Jarvis & Kevin
Ryan reps). In summary the outcome depends on the balance of the field.
FTO winners are common, even when faced with STO runners with scraps of
early form if they are useful and, usually, from a small set of source
stables.
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Leicester - 4 debut wins and 3 x STO successes since 2002. The 4
FTO winners include older Group 1 winner La Cucaracha for Barry Hills and
Listed Woodcote Stakes victor BA Foxtrot for Mick Channon. The others have
been for Jeremy Noseda last year with the useful Waffle and Just Sort It
in 2007 for Willie Jarvis when the Mick Channon STO favourite failed. The
general quality of the race can be high with older Group 1 winner Goodricke
winning it in 2004 to follow La Cucaracha and juvenile Group 2 winner Classic
Blade in the ruck last year. The STO wins have all come from Southern stables
with good records with 2yos which were coming into full form.
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Ripon - in the 4 years since it became and Auction race it has had
3 winners on STO and a FTO success by Tia Mia for James Given. That was
a typical early season wind-up-for-debut for the handler and was supported
in the market and led throughout. The STO wins have been for Kevin Ryan,
Mel Brittain (last year) and Mick Easterby. The last four winners have
all been above average with the last two rated above OR90 over the season,
the 2006 winner Riverside Lady in the OR80s and 2005 winner Bow Bridge
won a Listed race and placed in an ordinary Queen Mary.
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Some recurring themes in the three bullet points above. The better horses
are much more likely to come from the 'usual' sources and there are many
more of those in the South than the North. FTO wins are just as likely
as STO ones and the quality of the horses involved are the key. The OR80+
horses will get to the front, if present, whatever outing they are on.
In many years the races will produce a small number of runners up to winning
above maiden level and some higher. But, there may be only 2-3 of these
across the three events. Even the number in the fields capable of a single
auction, maiden or nursery win is below 25%. Much less than 50% of the
horses involved will win at any level at 2yo.
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The scene setting brings us to the Haydock fillies' maiden. We have
some Southern representatives with Crown and Paul Cole's Kate
Skate but they clearly are not the better debut types and both bring
suspect form into the race. They finished close together in 5th & 6th
at Bath on debut in what looked a weak race. The fourth has managed to
win a seller comfortably and the eighth has failed to which gives a good
idea of the level. Kate Skate got involved in the pace and faded while
Crown was hidden at the back and made some moderate progress late on after
switching to centre track. Kate Skate was 18/1 FTO and the vibes were not
that she was a good one.
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Crown then went to Newmarket and was made favourite for the fillies' race
at the Craven Meeting. She got involved in the stiffer pace there in second
through halfway within half a length of the lead. But, she faded worst
of the leading five and had 'gone' entering the final furlong. Richard
Hannon often runs ordinary maiden winner types in that Newmarket race and
Crown looks like an OR70-74 range filly and in that ability bracket. Not
a strong profile and failed to finish the race off last time. She ought
to be put under less pressure here on a flatter track but not an appealing
bet.
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Tom Folan is having her third go and, like Crown, closed up in later race
on debut and followed that by a late fade having pressed the pace from
a bad draw at Beverley. Looking at the VP she is very lightly made but
mature and moves well enough (aside from catching her near hind as blood
and bandage presumably shows). Like Crown you will imagine she will be
held up more for a finish here. Probably no an OR70 filly in the long term
and another to set a low level.
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My Mandy follows the pattern of the other 3TO fillies by having
finished off reasonably after a slow start FTO and then faded late in the
race having pressed the pace STO. Her form level is similar to Crown &
Tom Folan and she may have more scope given that her trainer has a less
well set method with 2yos. Of the others with runs Elegant Dancer
makes a quick return having been too inexperienced to get involved at Pontefract
on Monday. She appears to be the first string to Lady Bucket but
worth watching for a jockey change if she becomes a non-runner. She should
run better but starting from a low base.
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So, where are we? We have a range of 3TO & STO fillies with similar
levels of form and none have shown anything 'different' so far to suggest
they are going to step forward in the manner of a Needles And Pins. Of
those seen you would prefer Crown to Tom Folan as better built and with
a bit more quality but the Hannon runner seems unlikely to be at a value
price. My Mandy just comes out top of those on profile and might be at
a more taking SP. Those fillies with form are split towards either wing
of the 17 runner field with My Mandy in stall 1. As a working rule a higher
draw has been a slight advantage in recent years but at this first meeting
and after a lot of work on the course this will be more of a learning exercise.
A big field like this will probably form up centre and may well drift towards
the far rail which might help My Mandy but two groups are possible. If
a high draw proves an advantage then Crown & Tom Folan are better placed.
More mixed messages rather than a strong story for one of the fillies coming
out of the filtering process.
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The overall shape produces a race in a which an OR80+ horse from a ready-on-debut
stable will be enough to succeed and an OR88+ from any yard would win.
When you go looking for the girls to stick on this list you end up with
Aalsmeer & possibly Lewyn. The John Fretwell & Ed
McMahon combo should be familiar to you by now and when they have a good
one it will go close to winning FTO. We are just getting to the stage when
the stable should be showing us something better after a 10th & 4th
with the first two runners. Aalsmeer is by a good 2yo sire who can get
early wins and debut successes and the dam was a 6f 2yo winner for The
Queen & Richard Hannon before being sold off. In a field asking to
be sorted out by a good newcomer the paddock guy needs to get the call
back early about this one.
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Kevin Ryan has won this race twice in the last three years and the Ripon
race as well in 2006. Two of those wins were with STO fillies but he won
a debut runner heavy version of this race, lacking this year's range of
S/3TOs, with Maggie Lou. She won by 4 lengths from a moderate group with
the runner-up still a maiden. She came up well short in Group races afterwards
and had an OR of 87 close to the end of the season (i.e., in that OR88
range we expect for fillies who are above average maiden types into Novice
winners but struggle in Listed & Group level). Maggie Lou's effort
last year would be up to winning this race unless something steps forward
from the cast which means the trainer's Lewyn is a possibility.
Her sire is fine for the job although the dam unpromising although well
related.
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Nothing else really appeals as a debut winner but worth noting the pair
rained in Scotland as likely types for future winners. Ian Semple is back
with a licence and in charge at owner Gordon MacDowall's after his troubles
have eased and with Linda Perratt sacked (after he recommended her as his
replacement and was on-site assisting her, a funny old game..). His general
style is that his earliest runners will include most of the winners and
they will compete better on debut than the market tends to think. His debut
wins only came with really useful ones though, like Big Timer. However,
Dower Glen is by Camacho who is getting a lot of nippy ones in early
season (none looking longer term types so far) in his first season and
out of a 5f 2yo dam. You would certainly not be surprised by a promising
debut here.
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Jim Goldie takes less interest in 2yos than Mr Semple and blank seasons
are common and debut wins very rare. But, he gets the wins he should when
the ability is there and he runs Eternal Instinct here as his first
runner. He bred the filly and had to go to £22,000 to retain her
at the sales and miles above the usual amount these buy-backs normally
take. The dam has produce a 5f seller winner to a less good sire than Exceed
And Excel and the price would lead you to believe this one is ok. Another
to track for the future and to show more promise than the SP would lead
you too.
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In summary a tricky choice between those with form with none showing anything
above a moderate level of form nor obviously promising much improvement.
The draw adding a further shake-up to the general blurriness. A better
newcomer would be the best solution and Aalsmeer the obvious one to check
and the market should be a help with her and Lewyn. Real support for either
at (guesstimating) 7/2 in probably a real positive rather than just lack
of support for the uninspiring form fillies.
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A similar set-up at Leicester but with more interest in the horses
with form and a stronger midfield of newcomers than at Haydock. As you
sit there on Saturday evening with Richard Hannon having won both events
with Crown & King's Approach you may well be wondering why this
preview was somewhat against them. Well, the B2yoR approach puts a lot
of emphasis on paddock review and types and King's Approach came out a
negative on debut last week at Nottingham. Smaller and unexciting and an
ordinary maiden winner type the trainer should find something for rather
than a certain winner STO on ability. The overall view of that Nottingham
race was downbeat and the 25/1 winner & a 50/1 runner-up add some support
to the view.
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King's Approach was 9/1 and not really supported in a field where nothing
was backed outside the favourite (a disappointment in review and in the
race on firm going). A Hannon horse of some better ability should have
been backed down into that 5/1 to 6/1 range. He ran a bit better than he
looked in sleepiness & tightness terms but also possibly an indicator
the race was thin quality. Anyway, if you have taken a view that you did
not really fancy him or his form then seeing him favourite here on some
early tissues is what you want. Time to look elsewhere and admit you are
wrong afterwards, and quickly, if he wins well.
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Before going on to the rest of the runners let us take a brief aside into
Richard Hannon's overall STO record. B2yoR has spent a bit of this week
looking through a book called "Betting on Two Year Olds, The Inside
Track" (by Nick Attenborough) and it contains a lot of data but too
much to cover easily. It is also difficult to read it as if you were a
person looking for a good introduction to the subject rather than a grizzled
vet looking for faults in a 'Turf War'. A general summation is that it
has pluses for breadth of coverage but doesn't really pull the various
strands together. It is easy to pick holes in a number of areas as well
with the use of Statistics incorrect in various areas (a failing that multi-million
pound scientific projects consistently make so understandable). 'Strike
Rate' is used to mean more than one thing and that is misleading. Win rates
are presented as percentages of races rather than percentage of runs as
well. This is misleading in that a group of horses may only have won 5%
of races but with hardly any representatives. Which would mean a high strike
rate as wins to runs. And so on.
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For a Paddock Review person it does not put enough emphasis there and it
delivers a range accepted wisdom that B2yoR does not believe is really
true beyond the general belief that it is. The book's suggestion that 2yo
racing is easier because most 2yos develop in a consistent manner throughout
the season is just plain wrong. The author admits as much in another chapter
when suggesting people are wary of early season types with no scope. The
suggestion that John Francome & Jim McGrath are tremendous paddock
judges for the TV viewer is just matey backslapping. One needs to spend
more time looking at the horses than chatting with his mates and the other
has stood down from a tired old organisation which never pressed paddock
review into worthwhile areas in its traditional use, let alone for physical
types.
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One area that did catch the eye was a thorough list of courses used by
trainers for FTO and STO runners and whether the trainer had a good or
bad record at the course. The book starts by noting that Mr Hannon has
a Strike Rate (really as wins to runs % in this case) of 17% with STO runners
in maidens between 2000-9 (too long a period and needs breaking down by
year or period...) and an overall loss of -£76. At that level you
should be avoiding Mr Hannon STO? The book then splits down Hannon's Strike
Rate by Course and remember that 17% is his average number. The author
notes that "..around a third [33.3r%] of all Hannon's STO maidens win
when they are sent to Brighton, Doncaster & York but he has a much
poorer strike Rate at Ascot & Folkestone". Looking at the figures
for Hannon at Leicester it is 24% and above his average. A problem is that
these percentages are not backed up by P&L figures so was that a useful
24% or a less useful loss? It would also be useful to know how many horses
that 24% encompasses above it being more than 5. But, an interesting figure
to think about. To take another example the book notes that Paul Cole has
a negative STO with maidens at Haydock - think back to Kate Skate today
and in line with the general profile for that filly.
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Now, there are STO data for trainers on this site but not broken down by
course nor confined to maidens. Try going to this - Page
- which relates to Richard Hannon's record for the last 6 years. One point
to note is that splitting it down by year allows trends to become visible
hat the 2000-2009 lump will not. Backing all of Mr Hannon's STO horses
in two of the last three seasons would have produced a good profit. The
next two sections split the data, firstly by three month chunks and show
his profits in those years have been underpinned by his record from June
onwards. Breaking the data down by race distance shows a solid record at
5f throughout and more variable aside from that. So, Mr Hannon has an above
average record with STOs at Leicester and at 5f but not in the first three
months of the season. What to do? Let us trust the paddock guy for the
moment. [Oh, and would B2yoR recommend buying the book?. Tricky, in the
depths of data there is some ok information but there is a lot of lesser
stuff, and some plain guff, and presented in just a so-so manner. There
is the other problem of any book which is that it is a one moment snap-shot
and the 2yo scene can vary with time in subtle ways. There are probably
other sources of 2yo information quite close by, ahem.., and trying to
get to pulling the data into a thorough picture of what is going on and
How?, and Why? 2yo racing works as it does. No need to send £14.99
either. Well not yet, save it for the next venture.]
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Let us continue with Leicester's maiden and Jamie Spencer. No, come back,
...where are you going? Michael Bell has run a brace of 2yos this season
with both relatively expensive ones for the art dealing Green family. Both
have had a bit of hype before they ran and both ran moderately with Farmer
Giles getting involved well enough to be 2 lengths of a solid pace
on debut but folding tamely in the last 2f and not looking balanced at
times. That race looks better now with the first three all having won since
so at least they were decent horses that broke him up and left him behind.
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Thomas Baines came back from his debut to run unplaced at Windsor on Monday
but with an excuse and ought to have been second at a minimum. Farmer Giles
was more knowing and looked to get very tired FTO. He probably has more
potential than the others in the race and would be of interest at a better
price. Supporting early season blow outs for Mr Bell used to be a profitable
method and Needles And Pins covered above a good example. If he ran early
for the trainer he ought to be some good and at 5/1+ would be a good each-way
punt.
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Royal Desert has a similar profile to the Hannon horse having run
behind Gillburg (whom King's Approach beat) FTO. He didn't show a great
deal but ought to be an ordinary maiden winner type. A solid run would
be expected and a win no huge surprise.
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The best of the newcomers look to be Polly Macho & George
Baker. David Evans has matched his 2008 debut record closely this year
with an early win by a small natural who won again shortly after (Star
Rover to She's A Shaw Thing) and then managed to win a seller FTO. We should
be expecting one more debut winner from him with a good type who will break
well, lead and win comfortably. This is likely to be into May but Polly
Macho has a few positives in profile. New Sire Camacho has made an ok start
and produced some early cheaper speed types without looking like longer
term prospects. Polly Macho cost €23,000 and around the sire's average
and expensive for the trainer. The dam won a seller for the trainer over
5f at 2yo and ended up rated over OR70 as a juvenile after having lots
of runs.
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George Baker is also by Camacho and the older dam has produced a couple
of ok 2yo winners. The trainer can get runners fit and competent for debut
and has had a STO winner for the owners already this season. A solid run
looks certain but why is Tony Culhane riding? Could he have ridden
Royal Desert if he wanted to? And, more pertinently, why on earth isn't
George Baker riding? Then the horse, trainer and jockey could be indistinguishable.
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A solid midfield to the newcomers with both Petrocelli & Italian
Tom having profiles to be average winners. Alan McCabe has made a solid
job in his three years with a licence but ready 2yos were not included.
Three runners to date have produced a 20/1 debut winner (very forward in
condition) and a 3rd in a seller by a tiny filly who probably gave us all
she has first go. Petrocelli is an owner bred by good sire Piccolo out
of a dam who won the Ayr Gold Cup and has produced 2 x 5yo 2yo winners,
one at Listed level. A really important one for the paddock guy as a each-way
possibility.
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Simon Callaghan didn't vary things much in his first taking over from his
father. The early runners for the stable will be an average maiden winner
type and perhaps a duff one up to winning a seller, or at Brighton, along
the way. Italian Tom looks the ok one on profile but not up to winning
FTO.
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In summary, hope that the Hannon horse becomes a volunteer favourite and
sets the market up for something else. If the Michael Bell STO itch starts
to flicker sit on your hands and remind yourself that Spencer is riding,
it is drawn 9/9 on the wing and folded like a burst balloon on debut. Then
see whether the price has that in it. Watch out for Polly Macho if he looks
a bigger one with all the right fitness lines and similar for Petrocelli
if he is a bigger one and all shiny for the day.
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