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Virtual Paddock - for Nottingham
(Ginger Ted, Military Call & Red Avalanche). Right-Click on the pictures
to bring up the full version.
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The Nottingham race is a fascinating contest for two main reasons.
Firstly, the four with previous runs bring in form from the previous two
races at the course which both included Gillburg as an unplaced competitor
in some manner. The latter of those two Nottingham events was run 1.4 seconds
faster than the first despite the Official Going being GFG as opposed
to GF (i.e. a notch slower for the faster race). This event is a good experiment
to see how your theories about the quality of those two races and the reasons
for Gillburg's performances play out. The addition of Pintura who
made a debut in an unconnected Windsor maiden is a welcome opportunity
to try to line up the two strands. If the newcomers in the race were makeweights
with thin profiles that would be enough interest.
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However, the four horses on debut include three with profiles which mean
they have to be taken seriously as possibly high class sprint 2yos. If
they were spread around separate maidens around the country they would
be interesting highlights in themselves but added all three of them to
the experienced runners produces a strong looking event on profile. These
races tend never to work out to be as strong as they appear in advance
but you would not be much surprised if all eight of them managed to win
something during the year.
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Let us start with the 'Gillburg' related horses. Red Avalanche made
a poor debut on the first day of the season at Kempton but was notably
clueless and that accounted for his bad run. Given a break he came to Nottingham
for a Novice race and had clearly settled down a lot. He attended the,
just average, early pace set by Start Rover who had left him miles
behind at the same stage FTO. He went with the leader as they made an effort
2f out which gained them more than two lengths from Gillburg (on debut).
Red Avalanche pressed the winner until late on when he faded which allowed
Gillburg to gain some ground back.
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In retrospect the rating level given to the race was 5-10 points too high
and clearly made Gillburg look more promising than he was in reality. The
winner has gone on to win another Novice event under a double penalty but
from a thin field led by the moderate to average filly Chicita Banana (whose
winning form is working out badly) who had a single penalty. Red Avalanche
has the size to improve further and was still below full fitness STO. In
general terms he should be better again today and set a good standard for
the others.
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Gillburg went on from that debut to run as odds-on favourite in a maiden
at the course. Although the ground was officially GFG the 5f course record
was broken by a limited older handicapper on the evening and it was clearly
quicker than that and faster than when he ran behind Red Avalanche. Added
to the firm ground was a stiff, and cold, tailwind driving down the straight
to the finish. The pace was also quicker with Secret Millionaire pressing
on from the start whereas Star Rover had set a more controlled tempo early
in the Novice event at the earlier meeting.
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Remembering that Gillburg had got outpaced in a slower race on easier ground
FTO it was perhaps not as much of a surprise as it seemed at the time that
he found the pace too much. He broke well enough and was second behind
Secret Millionaire early on but has dropped back to 6th and being niggled
along before halfway. He did not seem to really fade in the latter half
of the race but he wouldn't go forward when pressed. You could theorise
that he would not stretch out on the firm going but he probably lacked
the basic pace anyway.
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The question is what to make of Military Call in relation to Red
Avalanche? In simple collateral form terms the former did much better against
Gillburg and on his first outing. He was also in the faster race and had
to race away from the rail and the pacemaker. He was 3 lengths off the
leader in 7th at halfway and lost a bit of ground late on but made a few
places as the chaff got washed back. He was 8/1 and not really supported
by owner Fretwell so either he wasn't thought much good or Kevin Ryan (Gillburg's
handler and also works for Fretwell) had told him Gillburg was ok. How
is the race working out? The third King's Approach was strongly backed
STO on Saturday and just got home against the errant Farmer Giles. A positive
but not fully franked and Military call was well back anyway. King Aphdrodite
was 6 lengths behind him and well beaten in a moderate event at Brighton
on Sunday so not fully proven yet.
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On review Red Avalanche comes out as the type with more scope than Military
Call and the Roi De Vitesse race probably a middling affair. Neither that
good nor bad as is often the case since we are dealing with small differences
in overall performance (OR72 is 2 lengths plus different to OR79 but a
visible difference in the type). On 3TO and hopefully having grown up again
mentally and properly fit Red Avalanche will come out best. If Military
Call wins then time to re-think the Roi De Vitesse win.
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Mick Channon rarely has longer priced debut runners who prove to be decent
maiden winners. They have a good handle on which are the better ones even
if they have not pressed them that hard in training. In the Brocklesby
Archers Road was second at 25/1 and has won his next two races and runs
in the Ascot Conditions race tomorrow. Pintura was 33/1 last week
on debut at Windsor despite a perfectly usable pedigree to produce a minor
maiden winner. Perhaps his draw in stall 2 had put the trainer off? Anyway,
the first four were all drawn low and Pintura had a clear run down the
centre. Sixth at halfway and progressing to challenge Be Invincible for
the lead in mid-track as the rail-running pacemakers faded away. He faded
himself late on and lost second but a solid effort on appearances and an
OR75+ type with a good chance of an open maiden win along the way. He comes
out a little behind Red Avalanche on profile but a chance to compare the
two form levels.
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Now the race shape starts to take some intriguing turns with the newcomers.
Richard Fahey's debuts over 5f where part of the FTO P&L tracking in
2008 and made a big profit. In a typical year his stable has the odd early
runner and then really gets going from May onward. He has run three so
far this year with Eight Hours 8th in the Brocklesby before winning an
egg-and-spoon three-legged race at Wolverhampton. He then ran a couple
of limited ones in the Beverley Auction divisions in mid-April. So, anytime
now he should be bring out some better ones who can give strong performances
FTO. Go back to 2008 and the performance that really marked the start of
this was Deadly Encounter's 7 length romp at Beverley on May 7th
after a lot of support on the day. He was a half brother to Magnolia Blossom
who also won first go in May for the stable.
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Which brings us to Newbury Street for Mr Fahey who is a sibling
of that pair of debut winners. If this were a smaller race in the North
you would be expecting this to be a debut winner. But, by coming to this
Nottingham race he runs into a set of solid experienced ones and he isn't
beating up on underdone ones and garbage like Deadly Encounter had before
him. Looking at the trainer's debut wins in 2008 there were 3 at Hamilton,
2 at Beverley and one each at Doncaster, Newcastle & Haydock. Similar
Northern and Scottish courses in 2006-7 for his FTO wins. Why bring this
one to Nottingham at all?
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William Haggas is normally a later starter with 2yos and wins before July
are rare. He typically runs the odd one before Royal Ascot but they are
normally fillies and being tried out as Queen Mary possibles. In the period
2005-8 he has run just two colts before late June. One was a poor
owner bred type having a go early on the off-chance and the other was Group
winner Conquest who started out with a second in the Newmarket Guineas
meeting maiden. He was running so early because he was just so precocious
and good that the trainer wanted to try him for Royal Ascot. Go back further
and he has only run two other colts before Royal Ascot back to 2002. One
was Group winner Majestic Missile placed at Windsor the evening before
the Ascot jamboree. The other was Flake in early June. Yes, that Flake
who is still kicking about on the NH circuit.
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So, as with Mr Fahey a good question is what is Ejaab doing here?,
not Newmarket next weekend, and doing running now? He ought to be very
useful if he is running this early and the sales price and the owner tell
you he isn't a cheap chancer. An exciting profile in many ways but a place
would be a good start on previous results by his Group winners. Worth checking
whether the trainer has anything entered for the Newmarket maiden or perhaps
it is Hamdan Al Maktoum who has a better one for that race given he had
the one-two last year with Finjaan (Group winner) & Ouqba (Conditions
winner).
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Starting to feel like a fascinating race this. Anything else? Well yes,
there is. David Elsworth add another trainer starting earlier than his
usual to make you ponder why Regency Art is starting out in April.
He is owned by the Green family who like to have plenty of runners and
some early juveniles with potential so that is probably part of the reason.
Consider that the only 2yos Michael Bell has run so far have been for the
Greens for example. This one is expensive for his sire these days 40,000gns
but he can get precocious 5f 2yos of better quality.
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The stable rarely has early runners these days and is 1-4 with April runners
since 2002 and 1-17 in May in the same period. The early runners are a
mix of disposable owner breds (like Affirmatively, see yesterday's Preview)
and some high class horses who tend to need time to develop and win. His
May debuts in 2007 for example included Coventry Stakes runner-up Swiss
Franc 2nd at Ascot FTO) and Stubbs Art. He has an interesting approach
in that his debut runners are more competent than the market expects but
rarely win although can place. But, they can take time & runs to turn
that promise into wins and often run in Listed & Group races as maidens.
He has only had four debut wins since 2002 and they are all high class
horses like Norse Dancer (who beat Phoenix Flight FTO in a tough Salisbury
maiden) & Salford City and in later season. But, Regency Art adds another
newcomer with good potential to the mix of the race.
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And, finally. Karl Burke's stable usually starts winning from late May
onwards and we should try to watch for the start of that. We are still
early for him to get into full gear and the debut runners now will typically
be usable 2yos getting going in time to have a run or two to peak for that
late May form wave. Reignier fits that profile and runs into a tough
race to start off in.
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In summary, a cracking race in profile with Red Avalanche preferred of
the form horses and Pintura a close second in. A got chance to marry up
some form strands as well. The interest in the race is added to greatly
by the newcomers with Ejaab & Regency Art both possibly higher class
and Newbury Street could be 'anything' including a wound-up one that can
go close on debut (before it's form regresses). Neither of the higher class
possibles come from trainers who would normally win a race this tough FTO
unless they were Group class but exciting to see if one can place well
and go on to Royal Ascot.
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The Auction race at Bath is in it's third year since being downgraded
to Class 6 from Class 4 and the step down really has told. The last year
at the higher level had a field with a set of ok winners in it including
Lipocco who is still competing at high level in Dubai. In 2007, at Class
6, there were 9 runners and only the winner itself managed a success later
in the season. Last year the better types came to the top again with the
placed horses managing to win at open maiden level and there was a later
seller winner back in 6th.
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The weight range this year goes from 8-11 for the topweighted male down
to 8-4 for the cheapest filly. Since the weight-for-sex scale allows fillies
5lb this race is not really much different from a maiden in weights with
just minor adjustments for the odd one that cost a little extra. That is
still a cheap level given the Class 6 billing with the Hannon pair top-priced
at £21,000 as a yearling and Quaker Parrot at £20,000.
The profile for the race produces around half the field in a narrow rating
range and difficult to be confident over the winner. But, the better types
often get to the front and, with the odd exception for a really cheap one
that has developed well, they usually come from the more expensive ones
in the field.
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Avonvalley appears to have made a promising debut by some readings
when she lost ground at the start and then looked to storm home late here
on debut. Later runs by the fillies from that race show that she was closing
on mostly seller level fillies, and worse, who had tired themselves out.
The only later winner so far has been the 4th in a Catterick seller. The
trainer gets the odd development winner with cheap fillies but you feel
she will come up short here and be poor value with the whiff of 'eyecatching
debut' floating around. She needs to be a lot wiser as well. The same goes
for Stan Moore's French Connection who received some support on
debut in an ordinary early season fillies race but proved too incompetent
to get involved. She should improve but her profile suggests she will come
up short.
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Of those that have run Stargaze (Picture)
appeals as the most likely to step forward to compete near the front at
the finish. He was an early debut runner for Andrew Balding at Newbury
and received a positive review as capable of rating OR70 in time. The development
aspect because, as the picture shows he was flabby on the day and still
mentally unknowing and not levelled up behind. On the plus side he was
a solidly built little sprint type with a bit of scope. It is only 11 days
since his useless debut so he is going to need to have come on quickly
but this is not a strong race and a solid each-way type.
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With the STO fillies looking a bit thin and Stargaze needing to put a clunker
behind him a win for a better newcomer looks quite likely. The two at the
top of the profile are Quaker Parrot and Dream Of Gerontius.
Until this year you couldn't trust Tom Dascombe to engineer good debuts
and both his 2008 juvenile Group winners bungled their first goes. This
year he has had two debut wins with above average types and some clunkers
from the duff horses. Quaker Parrot is by a good sprint 2yo sire and the
dam had produced a 5f 2yo winner. He is owned by the Betfair Owner's Club
and the stable has other links to the Betfair founders so they rate an
important connection (Does one of the Betfair Founders sponsor the Stable?).
Anyway, no surprise to see this one supported and a sound competitive debut
rather than blow-out.
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Richard Hannon is on course this year with a typical number of 2yo runners
to date but they have demonstrated less ability so far than you would expect.
Two winners overall and the only debut win by the useful Monsieur Chevalier
who has already shown he is the real thing with a second win. Remember
that only the very best of his 2yos tend to win FTO. When Kings Of Leo
was steaming along (too freely as it happened) and towering over Diamond
Laura halfway through yesterday's event at Windsor you half thought she
might be another good one up to winning on ability first time. He has used
the Class 6 version of this race for moderate ones in 2007-8 but has brought
some better ones here when it was Class 4. Dream Of Gerontius looks the
first string and is the first rep for new sire Oratorio and out of a Placed
8f 3yo mare who was by a sprint sire. It does not shout '5f early' but
the market should be some help. She is well drawn to get into the race
and support, in this field, at under 9/2 would be a good sign. With the
usual 'as the horses' go down proviso.
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Mick Channon has found a solid group of 2yos to debut in later April outside
of his normal methods with two debut wins in the last ten days to add to
that solid third by Pintura. He runs Toga Tiger who has the worst
of the draw which may well limit him to placing if he is somewhere cole
to the likes of Nadeen in ability. The market should be a help here because
the stable know how the latest batch of start-offs are competing and Tiger
Toga belongs in that group.
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A few others worth a quick mention. Dennis Coakley gets regular long-priced
places with his best 2yos because they are so well prepared for debut.
This seems early in the season for him to start (a consistent theme in
the Preview and many stables seem ahead of schedule) and Queens Hawk
is by Hawk Wing who tends to get fizzy types you can start early but rarely
5f winners. But, if this one is any good it will be ready to show it today
and the Market will give you no clue. A place at 33/1 for the stable's
earliest runner of the year is actually 'normal'.
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As mentioned yesterday Peter Winkworth is obviously a stable to track for
debut winners although the Market seems to be catching on to this fact
a little. We are still early for the stable to gets winners of any sort
but Raine's Cross has a much more likeable 2yo pedigree than the
filly Dongola who ran poorly at Windsor yesterday. He has had a poor runner
in the race last year and a 66/1 3rd back in 2005 with a good one. Another
of some each-way interest. In a field where the majority will be maidens
at season end one more likely to be usable at some level is Slice
for another trainer who frontloads the usable 5-6f ones into the early
debuts although they tend to need the outing.
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In summary, the STO fillies make little appeal and an each-way interest
in Stargaze a more interesting proposition. A couple of obvious FTO possibilities
with Quaker Parrot having a strong profile in the context of this race.
Hannon ought to be showing us a horse capable of a debut win soon and the
Market will be helpful. The lack of 5f zip in Dream Of Gerontius' pedigree
tempers enthusiasm without having seen her. Toga Tiger a placer type and
win STO if he is any good. A couple of longer shot debut types from
smaller stables that prepare their juveniles well for debut with Queens
Hawk & Raine's Cross.
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