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Virtual Paddock - for the Ascot
Conditions Race (Fratellino, Little Perisher, Planet Red & Walkingonthemoon).
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A month into the flat season with 35 races run and around 250 horses
have made their debuts. Hints in the recent maidens of better quality horses
being brought out and the pace picks up from now on. Today we have a Class
3 event at Ascot and the most important race to date in some terms. The
maiden at Pontefract is a Class 4 and a notch above the normal Class 5
level and it had traditionally been used by a range of larger Northern
stables for some of their best sprint 2yos. Over the weekend we then have
the important Class 2 Maiden at Newmarket on Sunday (perhaps Ejaab missed
Nottingham for that race with the owner's Janan his alternative) and a
Class 3 Conditions race for Fillies at Salisbury. The first of those regularly
throws up Group performances with Finjaan successful last year and George
Washington was beaten in it in his year. The fillies' event relies solely
on Richard Hannon to provide some quality and he will typically run his
best 5f female in the race. He has not had a filly win yet which is unusual
so will rely on some selection of the seven maidens he has entered.
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The two races today can produce higher quality 2yos and the Pontefract
maiden has a better record than the Ascot event. The conditions race has
tended to attract the best of the early season winners from a narrow core
of trainers plus whoever else has happened to have an early winner. Since
2002 it has produced subsequent juvenile Listed winners with Prince Charming
(2004, J Gosden), Fat Boy (2007, R Hannon) & Light The Fire (2008,
B Meehan). Last year's race was the best in some ways with limited 7f Group
2 winner Firth Of Fifth also in the field. They were standouts from mostly
just useful types otherwise and none of the Listed winners competed well
at higher level. Firth Of Fifth won the first 7f Group race of the season
in July and looked out of place in the later season 7-8f races at Group
level. Worth noting that the race was run on the all-weather in 2005-6
when Ascot was rebuilding and they were not strong versions.
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The Pontefract race went through a golden period between 2002-5 before
going quiet and containing just maiden winners. Last year's race was probably
the worst of recent seasons. On profile this year's race looks a much stronger
edition and there is likely to be at least one higher class winner in the
field. The 2002 edition saw Royal Ascot winner Revenue beaten with Irish
Group 3 winner Naahy back in third. In 2003 the Royal Ascot Norfolk Stakes
victor won well from a solid field. In 2005 everyone knew before the race
that Strike Up The Band was 'expected' and he ran twice at Royal Ascot
(at York) placing in the Norfolk Stakes and winning the Windsor Castle
Stakes.
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With that scenery painted in what can we make of this year's two races
and are there any Royal Ascot types included? The Ascot race appears
to have attracted a typical field in most ways and the runners from the
normal sources look borderline for even Listed Class apart from perhaps
Mr Hannon's Planet Red. The trainer has had a runner in every year
since 2002 but has not won it since the first year of that period with
Rockets 'N Rollers. As a group the ones he has run are a mix of early winners
lacking longer term pattern prospects other than perhaps Fat Boy (who bombed
out and finished last). The likes of Cornus, Grimes Faith & Crystal
Gazer are all still rattling about on the all-weather to give those who
follow that sphere a feel for the quality. They had all run in early season
AW events prior to a go in this Class 3 race.
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Planet Red has followed the same path as Sun Ship did in 2008 by placing
in the maiden at Newbury's Greenham Meeting. Sun Ship couldn't win on soft
ground last year and proved to be a good looker but below Listed class.
Planet Red has a bit more height to go with the Sun Ship build and was
supported like he was one of the Hannon better types at Newbury. Rain on
the day had made the ground GS and after a bump at the start he was in
11th place at halfway nearly six lengths off the leader Walkingonthemoon
(also here today and penalised 4lbs for the win). He took time to gather
himself but finished best of all in the final furlong. However, Dascombe's
WOTM had gained an easy lead and he never threatened to get to him. On
review you would prefer Planet Red's long term prospects to WOTM although
he is probably not a real 5f type and will be better over 6f+. He comes
out a little ahead of WOTM on profile for today.
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Hannon has already seen off the first of Tom Dascombe's debut winners (Soccer)
with Mr Chevalier at Newmarket in a conditions race and a similar outcome
here between then if Planet Red can keep closer to the pace. WOTM is likely
to try to lead again but he seems unlikely to get a soft time if he tries
that with Archers Road in the field. He has lead all three races
he has run in so far and only Hearts Of Fire has got past him although
Lees Auction was threatening before exiting stage right. He looks a good
version of the early season type the trainer has run in the race with Wovoka
& Thunder Bay both unplaced in the event for the handler in recent
years. He doesn't impress as a long term prospect and you suspect this
race may be where he finds the better types that can keep close enough
and pick him up in the final furlong. The move from GF to easier ground
would not appear to suit his physical type nor his aggressive run style.
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Little Perisher is following a typically unpredictable career path
for an Alan Jarvis 2yo. He was in front of Planet Red at halfway in the
Newbury race before fading. He managed to place in a modest event at Brighton
on Sunday but that form is well short of what will be required here. The
same can be said of Fratellino's success at Beverley in an Auction race.
He is a limited physical type who ought to struggle faced with some bigger
kit today. Which means that preference would be for Planet Red out of that
group but for the presence of a runner from an unusual, major stable, source.
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Barry Hills has already shown he has varied his placing of his best 2yos
this season and Red Jazz starting out at Windsor rather than Doncaster
or Newmarket was odd. Whatever, he put up close to the most impressive
debut we have seem so far. He travelled well throughout and carried his
jockey into the race unasked but while showing a likeable mature attitude
and listening for and responded to the pilot (rather than tearing about
unasked or disagreeing). He pulled away easily from Iver Bridge Lad showing
a strong finish and taking time to pull up. That looked like a performance
with something 'different' visible and a horse to follow. Iver Bridge Lad
ran a similar race in Monsieur Chevalier's Conditions race at Newmarket
and beat Archers Road's conqueror Hearts Of Fire.
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A brief mention for Let It Rock for Karl Burke just to make sure
she does not win unmentioned. The trainer hasn't had a 2yo winner yet and
the debut wins he does get normally come with Listed/Group quality horses
in late May & early June. Debuts in high class races for untried horses
who often struggle in maiden races later has not been unusual in recent
years and seems to be driven by the owner's requests. She ought to find
this examination much too tough first go even if she is pretty good.
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In summary a typical field in most ways except for the presence of a better
class profile from a good source (like Gosden's Prince Charming in 2004).
Hopefully Red Jazz will show he is a high-class horse with a return
to the course in June to be looked forward to. Preference for Planet Red
to step forward to prove best of those who ran at Newbury but may well
find the best a bit too quick for him here is a race which should go a
strong pace. Archers Road & Fratellino likely to get put into context
as the early season winners without pattern class futures.
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In some ways the Pontefract maiden is more fascinating to consider
because many of the horses are untested but the race history tells you
they have a solid chance of including a good one. We saw yesterday at Nottingham
how newcomers can disappoint after the big build up and what on earth was
Regency Art doing to add to the other clueless debuts for Green family
owned 2yos this year (are the owners pressing the trainers to hard to run
early you could wonder). However, the make up of this field means that
recovering from that minor knock to expectation is little problem. This
looks a real good cast of possibles.
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Many of the field represent trainers who have had many previous runners
in the race including high class winners. The three runners with form above
seller level demonstrate this well. Tim Easterby has declared a horse,
one a non-runner, in four of the last 6 seasons and all have been open
maiden winners capable of rating over OR80 during the year. Only King's
Gait has won in an ordinary year for quality with the race with the useful
Danesmead second behind Kings Valour. Gentle Beat is presumably
the best early colt he has and his solid debut, for a trainer who gets
rare FTO wins & places, a good indicator this is another of his usual
type. He never threatened to get near Star Rover at Thirsk but ran a solidly
professional race and saw the final furlong out well without fading much.
He should improve to set a good standard here but would come up short against
a better newcomer.
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Similar comments apply to David Nicholls Mister Manannan. The trainer
has run three in the race in recent years with Sessay a solid maiden winner
in time and Strike Up The Band a much hyped debut winner. The debut run
for this one was also competent without being exciting in a race where
the three better types finished clear of the moderate ones. The limited
one in fourth behind the gap from Mister Mannanan has won a weak fillies
race since to add a little bit of credence without 'franking' the form.
He has the profile to perform a little better than Gentle Beat here but
a close choice between them.
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Mick Channon has run two OR72ish (i.e. borderline open maiden winners and
one a non-winner at season end) horses in recent years and Lofthouse
looks another of that sort. 66/1 and the stable second string and never
getting into the Newbury race behind WOTM. A lowish OR70s type when he
grows up on review and an unlikely winner here.
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But, it is the best of the newcomers which add the real interest to the
race and there are 5-6 strong profiles. The equivocation is because it
is not obvious what sort Hambleton is for Bryan Smart. The trainer
was in the FTO P&L tracking last year for his May to July debuts and
showed a good profit thanks to a rash of wins with his batch of debuts
from early May. The first of those wins was by Go Nani Go at Musselburgh
but he had been declared for this race before being a non-runner. He was
a classic debut winner being an expensive one for his major Arab owner
and selected from the ranks of 2yos he has for him. Hambleton is a cheap
one and not arab owned so not the obvious high class one and the trainer
had run different quality 2yos in the race over the year's. He should be
well prepared and an indicator of what we shall see from Mr Smart over
the next two weeks.
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The most exciting of the newcomers comes out top on profile for the race
with Kingdom Of Light. Howard Johnson has had a lot of expensive
2yos in recent years thanks to his linkup with multi-millionaire businessman
Graham Wylie (Sage accounting software the prime source). They have a partnership
termed 'Transcend Bloodstock' to buy yearlings to race with the aim to
then resell the best of them to pay for the garbage. He has got regular
debut wins with the best of them and the very best are often in the first
few debuts. Go back to 2005 and his first runner was Norfolk Stakes winner
Masta Plasta who was a strong second on his May 13th kick-off. Last year
his first runner was South Central on June 2nd and an 11 length debut winner
prior to another Norfolk Stakes win for the stable. He fulfilled the plan
by then being sold for a big price to race in Hong Kong.
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The niggle with Kingdom of Light is that this is just too early a debut
and may be more of a 'sighter' for the best to come around mid-May at York.
But, the pedigree is really well suited to this early 5f start-off. He
is by Exceed And Excel who started getting good debuts around this time
last year (Go Nani Go for example) and had his first last Saturday with
Eternal Instinct. The dam produced an early 5f 2yo winner last year that
ended up rated OR84 and cost nothing like the £100,000 this one did.
An exciting prospect.
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The sire Exceed And Excel is also responsible for the only filly in the
field with David Barron's Parbold Hill. She is also out of a dam
who has produced solid sprint 2yos indicating that the sire's current success
owes a lot to the types of mares he attracted. The trainer does get debut
wins with good types and has already had two debut places including with
a filly with a much less taking profile than this one. She is likely to
be at longer odds than she should be as a filly but should perform well
in the group.
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James Given used to really only get 2yo winners with 5f sprinters in early
season and often on debut. Go back to 2001 and Mister Benji (another old
rogue still doing the 'living 2yo history fossil' bit on the AW as a good
reference model) had won three times by mid-May. He has extended his repertoire
a bit in recent years but still likes to bang in a 5f FTO wind-up in early
season if he can. In 2006 it was Everymanforhimself (4,000gns) in mid-April
and Tia Mia the next year in later April (8,000gns). The cheapness
of those two is in lime with the type of horse the stable usually gets.
Which makes Dixie Bright a bit of surprise and he might be much
better quality for an early season souped up one than Mister Benji.
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He cost $105,000 and is by the solid US sire Dixie Union who has had British
5f winners but from midsummer onwards in line with the high cost of many
of them. Dixie Bright is actually a cheap one in some ways considering
the Coolmore gang paid $800,000 for his half-brother Greek Mythology to
get an Irish 7f maiden winner. Poorly drawn out wide but another who really
should be an open maiden winner type and least and this one better prepared
than most for debut.
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Anne Duffield has seen a big increase in the 2yos she has in the last four
years and her record improved notably in 2005-7 until a poor return last
year. When she started out with a few cheap ones the debuts were always
very ready and the horses often placed FTO on preparation and then did
not win because they had not improvement left. With better raw material
she could convert some of the debut promise to wins and get the odd FTO
winner. If you look at this - Table
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lots of places on debut and they may not improve to win (1 from 7 conversion
rate in 2008 in a thin year for quality). Conversely only one horse for
43 that finished worse than sixth FTO has ever won at 2yo. If the ability
is there it shows FTO. No quiet intros in the pack as prep for STO and
surprise wins STO. Tim Easterby, for example, has had 5 season winners
make the first three in the last two year while 6 later winners have been
7th or worse. The two trainers are implementing different strategies for
2yos.
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Mrs Duffield has used this race three times in recent years and her runners
have finished 3rd twice and a 5th by a seller class runner who finished
with the later maiden winners from bigger stables who were not as ready
first up. In line with the upgrade in stable quality in recent years Ghostwing
cost £75,000 and is by sire Kheleyf who made a good start with 2yos
last year including early 5f types. The price suggests a good physical
type because the dam was well related but a poor runner and her first foal
a poor runner. Another who will be ready to compete first go.
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And finally, Rock Of Gibraltar does well with 3yo development horses doesn't
he? 5f 2yos are not really his thing. Has he had a 5f win? Well, not many
but he had the winner of this race in 2006 with Steady As A Rock on debut
for Mark Johnston. The trainer has won the race before with Group 3 winner
Russian Valour and usually runs a solid one in the race. Ahh, that makes
Rock Of Love seem a bit more interesting and the dam had produced
a good 5f 2yo as well as some more 7-8f ones. When Mr Johnston won this
in 2006 it was his 11th runner of the season and his second debut win suggesting
he was well forward. This year he has run two with Whippers Love turning
in a pair of rancid efforts. One to watch perhaps rather than support.
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In summary, a much stronger edition of the race than in recent years with
a raft of likeable newcomers from Northern stables to add to a pair of
solid looking STOs. The cost and pedigrees of many of the FTO horses would
suggest they have been selected as the stable's better early 2yos. The
stables represented include 5 to 6 who can get debut wins with better types.
A race to get to see for paddock review if you can and very difficult to
identify the winner from such a strong cast. Time to hope the race does
not disappoint and fall apart in the way the Nottingham maiden did. With
the depth on show that should not be the problem here.
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