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VP = Doncaster (Captain Sachin)
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VP = Goodwood (Di Stefano &
Kirsty's Boy)
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Two more Conditions races coming up over the next few days plus the important
maiden at Newmarket on Sunday. The highlight of the week is probably next
Wednesday with the 'Lily Agnes Stakes' as the first race on the Chester
May Meeting. That is a Class 2 race and usually the highlight of the winner
& placed horses career. The field containing a set of sharp and natural
2yos means the draw usually plays an important role. The entries include
the multiple winners Star Rover (penalised 9lbs) & Archers Road (Pen
3lbs) and both are typical of the type and quality that fit well in the
event. We can use some of the other entries to link to the Novice
race at Thirsk today.
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Despite the Class 4 status and the solid prize money level associated with
that the race has attracted another small field. Two of those are try-ons
from Mick Channon looking to blag some place money and the trainer has
done well. Both Vilnius & Musiara have run in sellers
with Vilnius looking the far more competent over 5f and probably better
anyway than Musiara. Her win in a Catterick seller was presentable at it's
level but 12lbs received should not be enough for her to compete with Here
Now And Why. Musiara seems to lack 5f pace and she is probably a less
than 2/1 shot to run in the first 7f races of the season which are usually
sellers at Redcar & Yarmouth (the home of the juvenile seller...) in
early July.
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HNAW is entered for the Lily Agnes but and may run in both races but seems
to have found a good opportunity here. He has looked the best early 2yo
the trainer has and made Archers Road work hard for his maiden win when
they met at Leicester. He turned a solid Ripon maiden into a comfortable
'time trial' win next time. The 3rd & 4th behind him that day have
both won since including Mister Mannanan's clear Pontefract win. The runner-up
was made to look ordinary behind Dispol Keasha yesterday and the form probably
not quite as strong as the double 'franking' makes it seem to be.
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Now, when Star Rover won at Nottingham David Nicholls was supposed to have
said that he had a 2yo that would win the Lily Agnes FTO. Looking through
the entries the two he has still in are Mister Manannan and Falasteen
who runs her on debut receiving 7lbs from HNAW. The talk about winning
the Chester race with a newcomer is pretty fanciful anyway. In the period
2002 to 2008 there were 132 juvenile races run at Chester and just one
has been won by a newcomer. It makes Brighton look easy. That win was by
the filly Madame Trop Vite in 2008. She scraped home in a maiden from a
horse that ended the season as a non-winner struggling off OR69 and a tiny
seller winner who could not compete off OR60 in late season. Madame Trop
Vite went on to win the Group 2 Flying Childers, the juvenile 5f championship
race in effect, to give an idea of how far below her real level she was
in that debut win. The thought that a newcomer could deal with Star Rover,
Archers Road and co. around those bends just seems ridiculous.
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However, it may mean that Falasteen is one of his best sprint 2yos and
the trainer has a good line to HNAW through Mister Manannan. The trainer
has a decent record with debuts at his local track in the last two years
with a win and two seconds from three goes. The Ryan horse will probably
have to set his own pace or take it up early because Vilnius is unlikely
to be able to carry the better horses that deep into the race. We should
know fairly early in the race whether Falasteen can pick him up by how
well he is travelling in behind. It will be interesting to see what the
Market makes of the duel.
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The other newcomer is the filly Cassidy K for Howard Johnson. His
first debut this year was backed to favourite but did not look that ready
at Pontefract and ran an ok race after going too freely early. On profile
she is likely to be a much more limited smaller filly like her own dam
who was an OR64 type.
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In summary, a good match on profile between HNAW & Falasteen. The Market
will give a good clue as to how good and ready the Nicholls horse is (at
a guess, 3/1 & less and supported probably means they are confident).
You then get into a 'Value' discussion about when does the price flip over
to make the solidly experienced HNAW value against a newcomer.
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The Doncaster maiden looks a solid affair and a three-way photo
at the top of the profile between Lees Anthem, Kanaf &
Absolute Music. The first of those is another Lily Agnes entry who
may be taking in a race for experience on the way. His profile on debut
was very thin but he was clearly much bigger and better than his modest
pedigree suggested. He travelled comfortably from early in the race and
was second through halfway just behind Archers Road. The jockey says that
horse idled later in the race and her does seem to have improved mentally
and in control terms with racing.
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However, Lees Anthem was moving up to challenge him towards the final furlong
and then hung left with Archers Road as that horse wandered off line. The
jockey used the whip to correct Lees Anthem back to the right and he moved
that way back towards the rail. As he changed his lead leg late on he became
unbalanced and hit the rail before he regained equilibrium and reacted
to that by trying to jump the rail. The horses behind him when he exited
have looked very limited on later runs with the exception of Lady Lube
Rye who ran badly that day. But, he should set a good standard if he can
run to a similar level or a bit better with nearly a month's extra training.
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Kanaf was one of two horses entered for the Newmarket maiden tomorrow for
owner Hamdan Al Maktoum. He ran two horses in that race last year with
Ouqba the first string over newcomer Finjaan. The latter proved the better
2yo winning at Group level and losing the Dewhurst Stakes in a photo. Here
we are a year later and Ouqba & Finjaan are both back at Newmarket
running in the 2,000 Guineas with Ouqba having made a comeback as the Richard
Hills ridden preference. Which means that we should take entries in that
race for the owner with suitable seriousness. The owner has Ejaab running
in the Newmarket maiden tomorrow who was supposed to run at Nottingham
on Tuesday but a non-runner with, possibly tactical, headache.
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Kanaf is by the very good 2yo sire Elnadim who has had many fewer reps.
in recent seasons but has turned out a series of good juveniles. His Strike
Rates in the last few seasons and been very good and even with small crops
has managed a British Group winner in each of the last three years (Wi
Dud & Caldra in 2006, Elletelle in 2007 and Elnawin last year). If
you like bigger, imposing 2yos he doesn't seem to provide that regularly
but experience has taught us that the best of his shorter, deep chested
ones, can produce more oomph and resilience than seems likely. The dam
here has little to recommend which means the £50,000 yearling price
should mean a better one. The trainer does not wind horses up for debut
although the early ones are competent and the Hamdan owned ones a little
readier than the average. His only runner so far this season was a third
at Newmarket for the same owner with a not very taking expensive one.
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The other possible for the win today would be Absolute Music for trainer
Robert Cowell. The trainer does not have many 2yos her gets them out early
and hey are competent and ready FTO. You could make a case that he has
recently wound his best 2yos up too much to kick-off. In 2007 his one winner
was Regal Step who looked very goo with a clear win FTO in May and was
bought by Highclere Racing to run in the Queen Mary on the strength of
that but to stay with Mr Cowell. She finished 14th at Royal Ascot at 8/1
and has never looked the filly she did FTO since & now struggling in
handicaps. In 2008 his best 2yo won FTO on July 1st before a STO run in
a Group race but looked sweaty and mentally wired on most occasions through
a series of unthreatening runs. You could say the same for the eternal
placer Silent Wonder last year (6 seconds in 7 runs and often looking too
tightly wound pre-race).
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So, if the trainer is still in 'Peak FTO' mode and Absolute Music is any
good she may well be in single figures and a problem to the colts to subdue
her. The trainer's two FTO wins in 2007-8 were at Nottingham & Thirsk
suggesting sending her North rather than a Newmarket start may be a positive.
She is by the new American sire Consolidator who was by Storm Cat and a
sire line where 'Peak FTO' is not uncommon. He won over 6f at 2yo and at
the top level over 8.5f.
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The others do not have the profile to figure without a bit of a surprise
but a few points to note. Mark Johnston runs King Of Axum who is
the seventeeth foal from his dam. Which is a rare achievement to
produce that many at all and the 16th was a full brother that won over
7f last year at 2yo. The trainer has not go going with his 2yos yet and
the upcoming Ripon maiden next weekend may be a target for his best early
2yo. His record with debuts at Doncaster is not good and the 25 to start
here since 2002 have included two winners and just four other places. Looked
at as a group the 25 are a below average bunch.
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Trainer John Weymes was included in the FTO P&L tracking last year
as a 'Long Shot' type who would get the odd 50/1 surprise. His horses seemed
in poor form throughout he season and he did not have a juvenile winner
at all although he still managed an 80/1 2nd with an early runner on STO.
He runs Emerald Spirit here who is a daughter of a dam who raced
with some distinction for him at 2yo including a 20/1 STO win. This may
be a bit strong for his filly to win but one to check and track if she
looks ok.
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If Saucy Girl is the best early filly Tim Easterby has then, on yesterday's
evidence, his declining record with juveniles may be able to contract still
more. Little Scotland is very expensive kit at £87,000 out
of a solid sprint 2yo dam by a good sire of precocious horses. The trainer
has run four horses in the equivalent maiden since 2002 with three unplaced
runs by season maidens. The useful Space Shuttle managed to finish 3rd
of 5th in his year. Another to track for signs of life rather than to expect
to win here. John Quinn runs Final Ovation and like Easterby rarely
has strong debuts. His 2yos normally peak STO and places FTO are good signs.
His earliest runners each year are usually competitive 2yos at some level
so another to assess rather than to look for a win from.
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In summary, a good three-way tussle at the top of the profile and a tricky
choice. Expecting smaller stables to convert promising debuts can be a
fraught business and Colin Teague has no track record to judge him on.
You feel like leaving the race rather then take a chance on what Lees Anthem
may turn up. Kanaf should be a solid debut and if the Newmarket entry means
he is Group class then he should go close and the general quality he brings
outlast Lees Anthem. Until the paddock input a small each-way on Absolute
Music seems a reasonable idea if the market is not saying she is useless
(the trainer knows what he has before they run because he prepares them
so fully. If she is 20/1 he should know she is not much good).
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The first meeting of the year at Goodwood and the only 5f maiden run
there each year. Goodwood has an aura as a 'Major' course but the maiden
races there can vary greatly in quality. There have been 18 maidens run
at the course in each of the last two years over all distances. In both
2007 & 2008 there have been three debut winners although not in this
race. Looking at those debut wins they indicate a number of useful themes
for thinking about maidens at the course. The debut wins have been in two
specific periods.
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The first of those is the 6f maidens towards the end of May and in early
June. These are ideally positioned to attract better types from major stables
as a pre-Royal Ascot outing. Richard Hannon had two debut winners in this
period in 2008 with the colt Versaki (tried in Group races but non-progressive)
and the filly Elusive Wave (sold to race in France and a leading Classic
contender there). In 2007 the two 6f FTO wins in this period were both
useful types tried at Royal Ascot. Go back over previous years and debut
winners in this timeframe include names like Sir Percy (2006) & Dubawi
(2004). The second time to look for debut wins because of superior horses
is in the 7f maidens at the Glorious Goodwood meeting. In 2008 the colts'
race was won by Group 2 winner Jukebox Jury and in 2007 by Listed placed
Latin Lad.
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Outside of those times the maidens can be moderate with little worthwhile
in them. Typically they will have at least an average (OR75) winner and
occasionally a useful type included but lacking real depth. A few
trainers have very good records at the course with Richard Hannon most
important of late with 11 maiden wins out of the 36 in 2007-8 with Walter
Swinburn and Barry Hills having solid numbers.
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Which brings us to this race over 5f which usually falls to a STO runner.
This year's race does not have a particularly likeable shape because the
experienced runners bring in suspect or moderate form. Di Stefano
was green in the preliminaries but ran very competently at Newbury FTO.
He was 5th through halfway and finished 4th with three horses fading back
past him and two overtaking him. That was a slower race on softer ground
and the later runners from it have not enhanced it. The winner has been
beaten and a couple of the more usable unplaced runners have managed to
make places since. But, the horses he overtook have been been thrashed
in lesser races to make you wonder what he actually achieved with that
debut 4th? He now runs on a different track on firmer going. One of those
so-so STO favourites who did not fully convince on debut.
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Kirsty's Boy faded after being fifth early on debut in a mostly
weak race. He looked a usable OR60s type on review and should improve and
be more competent here but looks to lack some quality.
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Behind Di Stefano on the profile you have a midfield of runners with similar
ratings but none really standing out. Ralph Beckett typically runs a few
very early in the season then starts out some slightly better ones in early
May, but not stars, and the real wins start from June onwards. THis year
is right on track and Admin looks like that usable middle ranker
on profile (OR75-79ish). The competence his trainer instils into FTOs means
he would be most likely to pick up the pieces if the STO runners fail but
would not overpower a solid Di Stefano effort.
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Clive Cox had a poor 2008 when his horses seemed to be have some sort of
illness problem until improving in paddock appearance in later season.
In general his earliest runner each year will need the run and not be his
best types. He had a 3rd in this race last year with a FTO breeze-up buy
who never improved nor won. The debut wins he does get by design, rather
than weak race accidents, are in June to July with specifically prepared
Listed+ quality 2yos and usually fillies. Reddy To Star is another
Redback with a pedigree on the dam's side that looked great in 1998 but
thin now. Another to be competent but not good enough to win FTO in a reasonable
field.
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John Best can go a bit 'Clive Brittain' on you and run horses in major
races for no particular reason. But, 100/1 wins and 66/1 debut places in
the Windsor Castle do make you wonder whether he might know something.
But, in general the debuts by the hyped ones can be variable and not easy
to trust they will be delivered smoothly like a Jeremy Noseda would. Bob
Goes Electric is another Lily Agnes entry and a debut run in that race
would seem poor planning and a go here more reasonable. The pedigree says
nippy 2yo of limited quality rather than the better type the trainer needs
to get a win.
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Peter Winkworth will be well known to regular readers. This sort of partially
defended set-up with a suspect STO as a shorter priced favourite and nothing
much behind to stop a surprise winner from a range of sources if he fails
can be good for him. But Oil Strike has just an ordinary profile
and does not promise on that to be another 'Raines Cross'. Interesting
to see how the Market reacts to him. And finally, Roger Teal is in his
third season and has run nine 2yos but never had a winner. He is in that
category at present of smaller stable that has not proved they can fulfil
debut promise. In 2007 his 4 juveniles were all very fit and well prepared
for FTO and all finished between 2nd to 4th in big fields. None managed
to win on later runs. In 2008 he seemed to have left the 2yos a bit more
to work on for debut with two 5th the best from 4 runners. But, still no
win on later runs. What will his approach be this year?
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In summary, not a race shape to take to. A race normally won by STO runners
but the previous ones have looked a bit more convincing. Supporting debut
runners at the track that are not superior does not often work. The newcomers
here are packed into a narrow rating range and none stand out. A win for
those who get regular debut wins like Beckett & Winkworth seems an
easy answer but the whole story is not there for them. A tricky race where
an oddity of a result outside of the trends no real surprise.
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