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Virtual Paddock = Newcastle (A Touch
Of Luck, Bronze Beau, Sharp Eclipse & Tres Coronas)
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VP = Beverley (Dispol Kabira, Lily
Lenor & Maidtorun)
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VP = Warwick (Angel Of Fashion
& Six Wives)
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VP = Windsor (Crown)
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A busy 65-70 minutes of 2yo action on the Bank Holiday with 5 races from
1:50 onwards although all with single figure fields. A more 'Race Shape
& Hints' feel to this preview with the pace of races cranking up. A
few real headlines to the day and worth starting with the 7 runner Class
4 Maiden at Kempton. Since the retirement of David Loder &
Bryan McMahon and with Godolphin easing back on debut preparation there
has been a gap in trainers whom you could expect to nail a lot of FTO wins
with their competitive 2yos. Jeremy Noseda had always been a 'Ready
FTO' trainer and go back to 1999-2000 and he was getting 20-30% strike
rates with debuts. Remember that 6-7% of 2yos win on debuts and a 10% strike
rate FTO for a trainer is solidly above average. He probably backed off
a bit and/or lacked some quality for a few years and his strike rate 'slumped'
into the 10-14% range. His approach had a recognisable shape though with
a batch of higher class 2yos in later May and early June primed to win
FTO and the trainer wanting the win as the result.
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With the recent increase in quality in the stable this approach has had
more ammunition to fire in the chosen period. It peaked last year with
a 30% strike rate with debut runners and 4 of the first 5 runners won FTO
and 5 of the first 7. Apart from an odd early runner in April the real
'batch' started on May 9th. Mr Noseda has two runners today with Paradise
Dream a runner at Kempton.
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He is by Kyllachy who can get early 5f wins with a little help and the
dam is top drawer in that sense. He is out of the mare Wunders Dream who
was one of the best of the first crop by Averti which included Avonbridge.
She had a moderate dam pedigree and cost only 10,000gns but proved up to
winning the Flying Childers. On her early April debut for wind-them-up
James Given she set a stiff pace and responded as the Neville Callaghan
trained Mazepa challenged. The pair drew 9L clear with Wunders Dream just
touched off. When interviewed after the race Callaghan responded to a query
as to what the plan was with victor Mazepa with a baffled look and a "..that
was the plan..." answer. Metaphorically patting his wallet. Classic stuff
and the sort of early season tear-up we have not seen for a while. Both
Wunders Dream & Mazepa went on to win at the Craven Meeting.
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So, the trainer is fine and the pedigree fine and Noseda's preferred jockey
Shane Kelly is riding. He comes out clear top on the profile unsurprisingly.
The Market knows that Noseda does not mess about FTO so SPs tend to be
short. The 30% strike rate last year meant a profit anyway which would
not be the case in a 10-14% year.
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The Preview last Friday (May 1st) included a table of the 18 horses that
have made the most places in the second half of the races run to date.
The aim was to produce a list of 'Eyecatchers' to see how they went on
STO and generally. The 18 already included a number of later winners and
two horses on the list have runs since. Dispol Keasha put up a taking front-running
display to win at Musselburgh and Mrs Boss was beaten less than a length
in 3rd at 16/1 yesterday. Perhaps they really are eyecatching? Mark Johnston
has had two in the last four days that would get onto that list with Rock
Of Love (4th at Pontefract) and King Of Axum's success in the midst of
the chaos at Doncaster two days ago.
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Richard Hannon runs two here with Avon River & Dream Of Gerontius
again teamed up after getting miles behind together at Bath 7 days ago.
Avon River looked the second string with Moore aboard but stuck around
the 8/1 mark suggesting she might be usable in time. The Hughes ridden
Dream Of Gerontius drifted to 16/1 and a bad sign for his future prospects
as well as the day. Unlike the Hughes horse Avon River was given a hard
ride after getting well back and whipped more than usual to get himself
back to a midfield 7th, well off the lead, at the finish. He has Jimmy
Fortune booked and this probably indicates Mr Hannon wants Avon River 'sorted
out' again. When Fallon was available he used to get odd rides for Hannon
and part of the reason appeared to be that jockey's ability to mentally
dominate horses to get them to behave and participate fully.
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On what happened at Bath you would expect Avon River to be bullied into
doing what he can which will be a reasonable level but a place probably
a good result. Dream Of Gerontius is just taking up a place in the horsebox
on the way to 7f+ nurseries on the circumstantials from Bath.
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A couple of solid looking debut runners in Knightfire & Radio
City. The former looks the stronger pedigree but the trainer Swinburn
is less assured at debuts that Mr Beckett. Mr Swinburn has had a 2nd and
a well backed 5th with 2yos runners to date. Mr Beckett's horses are more
competent FTO and he has just started the phase when he runs a few middling
2yos types FTO (the first of these - Admin - was 3rd at Goodwood 2 days
ago). On pedigree Radio City is another middling one who might sneak a
win if Paradise Dream were not here and a close rival for Avon River.
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The Tom Dascombe debut winners this year have been 1st & 2nd (pressing
the forcing leader) at halfway while the losers have been 6th (twice) &
13th. Above Limits comes up a bit sort on profile to be a better
one but with jockey Kingscote here might be a better one. Either way, if
you support it you may well know after a furlong whether it is there to
compete for the win or not.
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In summary, a recurrent theme over the next few weeks will be Noseda horses
close to the top of profiles because he should have a lot of expensive
ones to run. Obviously a key point will be to check how the early debuts
go and how the Market reacts. You would expect Paradise Dream to be a strongish
favourite here if he any good because the trainer has tried him enough
to know. If you want to follow the 'Eyecatchers' from here on then Avon
River is a qualifier. A couple of future winners of some sort probably
with Knightfire & Radio City.
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Windsor's 5f maiden continues the Noseda story. where he has Key
Art on debut. This one cost just the €100,000 and is owned, how
could you ever guess?, by the Art dealing Greens in partnership with the
Sangsters. More important owners Mr Noseda likes to provide with winners
to schedule. Home of the quirky 2yo in 2009. By the solid 2yo sire Kheleyf
out of a maiden dam by a US sprinter-miler sire to add to that and ridden
by Ryan Moore. That jockey has some sort of agreement to ride Hannon's
second strings and 'away' 2yos when available but rides Key Art rather
than Deal (ridden by Richard Smith who is mostly just a work rider
for the stable). A similar story to Kempton and probably favourite at useful
at least.
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He comes out top on profile but Tawaabb should be an above average
debut for Mick Channon and we are probably at the start of the 'Mid May'
period (perhaps earlier this year as many trainers seem to be ahead with
the dry spring) for a batch of better debuts. An expensive son of Kyllachy
and a full brother to an early April 5f debut winner at 2yo who cost much
less. The owner would figure well up the "Mates & Arab Owners" list
for better quality debuts as well. Another strong debut profile and the
most likely to pick up the win if Key Art fails.
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The others do not appeal as winners if those two run well including Tom
Dascombe's Underworld Dandy who has a very thin pedigree. The vague
niggle would be that Crown is actually the better class filly some
of the circumstances around her first two runs might suggest. The actual
performances have been disappointing and not up to winning this although
a competent run should see her involved but left behind in the final furlong.
Her run will be another good test of the strength of the Newmarket fillies'
maiden she ran in. The first 5 in that race were not from the 'usual sources'
and suggesting that perhaps it was a weak race. The win for the 5th - Azif
- in an Auction race at his course last week suggest the first 4 were probably
ok despite the trainers of three of them. A solid run by Crown but coming
up short would suggest she ran to her best at Newmarket and beaten by better
fillies.
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In summary, a likeable race containing two very good profiles for horses
that are likely to be useful. If Paradise Dream has won well then Key Art
may well get to poor value odds and Tawaabb strong enough on profile to
be value at 11/4, say.
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The Warwick fillies' race looks a good event and is also a test
of the Newmarket race Crown ran in. William Haggas had won that equivalent
race in 2008 with the useful filly Danehill Destiny and ran Six Wives
this year for the same connections. She looked a similar type but lost
ground at the start and never got into a race with a strong pace (that
blew Crown up). She was just over a 2 lengths back at halfway after getting
some ground back from the slow start but then lost ground again as the
better fillies pressed on. That looked like she was outpaced because she
then stuck on in the final furlong to claw some lost ground back again
(other than on the clear winner). She should be better here and set a stiff
standard but with a niggle over those hints of lack of basic pace on this
slick track.
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Richard Hannon runs Kings Of Leo who was also entered in the Lily
Agnes on Wednesday and is probably one of his best 'speed' fillies early
this year. She ran a perfectly good debut overall at Windsor last week
when she took off early to cross in front of the field and press the leader
one off the stands' rail. She ran too freely and did not really settle
but showed enough to think Mr Hannon had seen enough pace at home to think
she was 'Fast'. Which does not mean she can put a full, professional, race
together though. The Hannon runners usually snap to and show you their
proper ability STO in a full so a strong showing here if she can carry
that pace deep into the race.
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Neither Lewyn nor Angel Of Fashion showed enough FTO to suggest
they can step forward to win this although they present a solid midfield
in the profile to stop a rank outsider win. A good looking newcomer in
Chinese Democracy for Paul Cole with a good US speed pedigree appeals
more as the other placer without having enough readiness to win unless
she is very good. Worth noting to that Pat Eddery has his second 2yo runner
in 2009 after he won the Brocklesby with Hearts Of Fire. You would
suspect that Pepi Royal is more of a minor winner/usable placer
type with development in his normal manner than proof he has turned into
a proto-Noseda debut-wise.
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In summary, a solid race which should be informative in several ways. A
bit of Hare & Tortoise likely with Kings Of Leo the bigger and speedier
model faced with a more plugging-on rival and Chinese Democracy there to
find any holes in either of. Let's home the big & flashy girl can last
home.
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Sunday saw a taking win for a filly in the maiden at Newmarket from 5 colts
with Robert Cowell's High Spice proving too good for Meehan's Radiohead.
The filly showed a hugely professional attitude to lead, set a pace to
get rid of most of the colts and then respond to the later race challenge
of Radiohead (who is a fine physical specimen). Not a great time but the
front two look very useful. The trainer in interview after the race harked
back to the way Regal Step never progressed from a similarly good debut
on the way to the Queen Mary. He said that High Spice was a much more relaxed
and tractable type and would go straight tot he Ascot race because she
did not need more experience. Interesting to see how that pans out. The
race also featured Jamie Spencer floundering around at the back on another
2yo and finding a way not to win. This all seems too common a sight. Watching
him in the finish he really isn't very pretty in a finish these days with
lots of daylight between him and Radiohead as he urged him along.
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Anyway, the other question that came to mind is how common it is for fillies
to best colts in open maidens? Remember that the females get 5lbs allowance
for their relative lack of 'Power'. If you paddock review fields of mixed
sex 2yos the fillies will normally look notably stringier to the point
that 5lbs does not, instinctively, seem enough. A quick look at the 2008
maiden races, open to both sexes, show tat around 75% of runners
in them were male and 25% female. The fillies managed to win 18% of the
368 races from their quarter of the runners. The males overall Strike Rate
(i.e., wins to runs) was 10% and the females just under 6%. Backing all
of the male runners would have lost you 37% of your total stake and a higher
47% with fillies. Overall the figures might suggest that 5lbs is not enough
allowance. This year the fillies have managed 4 wins at around 20% and
perhaps 5f races and early zip are an areas where fillies can compete better.
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Which is a way of linking to the Beverley maiden where Petrocelli
is going to be chased by a lot of females for the win. He appeared to make
a good debut and is the first test of the Leicester race that King's Approach
won. Three horses formed up to set a solid pace there and Petrocelli went
through halfway in 5th at 5 lengths from the leading three. The pacemakers
stalled later in the final furlong allowing the 4th (Royal Desert) and
Petrocelli to close quickly last on and he might have been second another
half furlong on. Closing on dead horses after being outpaced or a good
debut? Probably a bit of both and a solid pedigree to suggest he is ok
and can stay on up the hill to set a good standard here.
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Mark Johnston had his first winner of the year on Saturday with King Of
Axum's Doncaster win. On one level that might indicate a burst of good
debuts in Noseda style. The Hermitage has the profile of a usable
& speedy filly and might be a better debut although can she beat the
colt FTO? Looking at King Of Axum's win it was not a 'High Spice' style
overpowering type by a competent newcomer. It was a moderate run by an
ok physical type who lost ground through inexperience and was scrubbed
along in last at halfway. He managed to scrape a win in a chaotic race
that fell apart. This filly will have to show much more nous and natural
speed to win.
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The VP shows three fillies that ran at the last meeting here. Dispol
Kabira is a weakly made one and no reason to believe she can do much
better than her duff debut. Maidtorun is a solid neat model if a
bit underpowered. The fillies she finished just in from of have placed
in a claimer and minor auction race since and colt Masked Dance was just
ahead and ran moderately (up the wrong strip of Southwell's straight) on
Friday. A usable type at a lower level but not to Petrocelli standard if
that debut run is sound. Lily Lenor is actually a bit bigger and
more interesting. She is a raw boned and more masculine looking type. 'Plain'
would get used but nothing wrong with plain when you are looking for a
filly to run fast. She has run a couple of shockers at long prices but
had got messed around early here last time and then the head went up and
she did not seem to go forward properly for some reason. Worth another
chance to see whether there is something usable there.
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In summary, Petrocelli the only real obstacle to a female win unless Daft
Lad is freakish in profile terms. A good debut plus a reliable trainer
and likeable 2yo pedigree make him look a good defender. The Hermitage
should be at shorter odds here as the Johnston rep and after his first
win this year. You would need to be sure she was a better type to win this
though rather than expecting a wave of newcomer wins. Lily Lenor worth
ten bob EW for old time's sake.
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The VP for the Newcastle race shows the four horses in the race
that met at Beverley and finished 3rd-5th & 8th. They got to their
final positions in different ways with Bronze Beau pressing the
leader in a line of three until fading helped by being on STO, The other
three were newcomers and A Touch Of Luck showed most early zip to
get from a low to 5th at halfway before fading. He looked small but well
made and usable. He appears to be the Easterby second string here to newcomer
Fibs And Flannel which dampens the liking for him to step forward
here a bit.
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Tres Coronas was the best type overall although not fully a 5f type
(taller & narrower than the compact and ready Bronze Beau for e.g.)
as his pedigree would support. Held up and 6th at halfway and solid progress
through the faders to get to 3rd. This uphill 5f on softer going uphill
looks a good set-up for him. Sharp Eclipse a more bits-and-pieces
type than the mature looking Tres Coronas and mentally young and green
in the race. Got well behind and closed up to 5th not far behind Tres Coronas
but less convincing as a physical type.
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Fibs And Flannels has a solid 2yo pedigree and it A Touch Of Luck is ok
as his review suggested then a good sign for this one. The trainer does
not get many debuts wins (or 2yo wins at all these days) and Flying Scotland's
second at Doncaster two days ago seems more likely to be a weak race than
a strong run. But, a solid debut from this one on the way to being a winner
looks likely.
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In summary, Tres Coronas appeals as a solid favourite who should step forward
from debut and not be inconvenienced by a stiff 5f. Bronze Beau probably
has little, if anything, extra left to show us and Sharp Eclipse does not
really appeal to improve to a good level STO. In general probably more
interest in seeing how the Easterby pair fair considering that A Touch
Of Luck looked usable around the OR71 level and is apparently less good
than Fibs And Flannel.
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