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Virtual Paddock - Chester
(Duke Of Rainford, Fratellino, Mijas Playa, Star
Rover & Tom Folan)
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The Lily Agnes Stakes at Chester is a Class 2 race but that billing
overplays it's significance. It is not a race which features development
types with Group race & Listed event futures even as 2yos. It is more
a 'Championship' for the the early season, nippy, 5f types for whom a win
might well be their career highlight. Just occasionally the, mainly, smaller
and/or Northern stables will produce a juvenile capable of improving much
better than the pedigree & purchase price they own. In 2005 the runner
up was Strike Up The Band who managed to win at Listed level at 2yo and
go on to compete close to that level to last season. Last year the runner-up
was Aspen Darlin who went on to win at Group level. But those are rare
instances and in many years the winner would be well below Listed level.
If you look at the - Result
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of this preview you will do well to remember many of the horses. A good
number are still around on the all-weather in low level handicaps and lacked
the physical development potential to turn their precocity into a longer
term career in better races.
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The tight left-hand Chester course means that the horses are turning left
from the start and being drawn away from the rail means you are at a big
disadvantage. On firmer ground the shorter races at the course of a meeting
are often exclusively won by stalls 1 & 2 with the odd 3 stall for
variety. In line with the discussions about Catterick and Run Styles yesterday
the winners mostly come from two Run Styles. You can win by getting to
the rail from a low draw and leading throughout. Getting pressurised from
other horses increases the friction and the chance of over-racing. This
means the pacemakers will fade in the final furlong. As ever, the horses
that have got to the second rank comfortably and travelled close to the
rail in behind the leaders will be best placed to jump to the win if the
pace folds. Racing wide of the rail makes life difficult wherever you race
and closing from much further back than 3rd-4th (5th at times) needs some
combination of a better individual and a pace war. That second rank will
typically not be much further than 2-3 lengths off the leader at halfway.
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To make the point the bullet points below show the Run Styles for the recent
winners of the Lily Agnes :-
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2004 - Dance Night = Tracked leaders in 4th, challenge 1f out (Drawn
1)
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2005 - Ooh Aah Camara = Broke best but held back to 6th but only
2L off lead halfway. Challenge from 1f out (Drawn 1)
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2006 - Mubaashir = Tracked leaders in 4th at 3L back after a furlong
and progress to be 1.5L back halfway. Effort to 1F out and led late. (Drawn
5)
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2007 - Cracking = Front runner with uncontested lead. 1L clear at
halfway and able to hold off closers. (Drawn 3)
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2008 - Doncaster Rover = Tracked leaders in 3rd at 1.5L at halfway.
Led at the furlong post. (Drawn 2).
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Lots of 1-3s in the winners draw position as well. Let us see how this
matches up with the field this year. The following lists the declared horses
in draw order along with the Run Styles they have used so far :-
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(Draw 1) Goodbye Earl = Straight course on debut, 6th of 14 through
halfway 3 lengths off lead.
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(2) Tom Folan = 5th & 3rd at 2-3 lengths off lead on both runs.
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(3) Mijas Playa = 3rd though halfway on debut pressing lead within
a length in race with good pace
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(4) Fratellino = 2nd & 1st through halfway both runs & less
than a length off the lead.
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(5) Star Rover = Led first two runs and a nose behind the lead 3TO
on the head bob.
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(6) Kings Of Leo = Ran freely on debut & pressing leader in
2nd within a length. Held up STO in third at around 1.5 lengths.
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(7) Archers Road = Absolute natural who led each of his first three
races including the 19 runner Brocklesby when he broke first and was able
to cross in front of the field towards the preferred stands' rail. Showed
a mature willingness to settle in 3rd 4TO but in a straight course race
run in 'lanes' and not actually behind other backsides.
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(8) Duke Of Rainford = Slow start on debut and never in race. 10th
at halfway more than 7 lengths back.
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(9) My Mandy = Slow start debut and not involved. Press strong pace
STO within a neck and led big field for most of race 3TO with Goodbye Early
behind.
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A quick word about winners' penalties. The 3lbs penalty for an ordinary
maiden win has often been carried to victory and Archers Road is the only
runner with that burden. Star Rover has won twice and has a 9lbs penalty
and has to give 6lbs to Archers Road. It is very rare to see a horse run
with a 9lbs extra for the reason that to win three races by this stage
in the year is very hard to do. Star Rover was lucky to find a soft Novice
to win under a double penalty for his third win. The last to win with a
bigger penalty was The Lord in 2002 with a 6lbs penalty for already having
won a Conditions race (The Brocklesby). He was around an OR100 juvenile
faced by a lot of smaller 2yos who were future AW handicappers. They did
not see which way he went from his stall 3.
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So, there you have the set and 'Pieces' in the Lily Agnes game so you can
push them around to see how the race might go and the most likely winners.
Here is the B2yoR take on it. Ian Williams has his first two runners in
the race with My Mandy & Duke Of Rainford and they are drawn 8 &
9 which is enough of a problem. Odd to see Duke Of Rainford as the apparent
first string so watch for signs of life. My Mandy has some zip but having
to use her pace from a wide draw means she is going to have to be superior
to win. She comes from two races producing winners at an ok level but not
to suggest she is better class. Goodbye Earl has the best draw but looks
light on size and pedigree. But, she has some pace and is ok at a lower
level. She should play her part in forcing the pace battle upwards in pace.
Not just a rabbit the better pressers can clear easily. Tom Folan may try
to settle 2nd rank but looks light in quality to believe she will be a
good closer. Similar comments for Fratellino on the quality side and we
have seen him come up short behind Archers Road already. Another who can
assist with the pace but hard to see him finishing strongly in the last
furlong.
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This brings us down to a shortlist of multiple winners Archers Road &
Star Rover and the fillies Kings Of Leo and Mijas Playa. Star Rover is
a smaller type for whom this type of race ought to be his 'Derby' but a
9lbs penalty seems a big negative. Drawn in 5 which is just usable but
with just enough pace inside him to think that his chances of getting to
the rail unhindered are less than 50%. One to pass over and leave it if
there in nothing better. Archers Road impressed with the was he maturely
settled last time having shown he had the pace to lead 'anything' if that
is what you wanted as well. He put Red Jazz under real pressure for pace
before getting worn down late on but that looked a step forward. Drawn
7 you would hope that they try to slot him into a Stalker spot rather than
gun him out to try to lead. He should be able to produce a kick in towards
the final furlong if required and seems a solid option.
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Kings Of Leo in drawn 6 and also tracked the pace last time. She beat Six
Wives with a little comfort without producing a taking finish and stalling
late on. Overall, a likeable filly but not easy to see how she can win
this. Of more interest is Mijas Playa who was much further ahead of Six
Wives than Kings Of Leo when she made her debut with that filly. She showed
good pace and kept on second best off it to keep going up the hill at Newmarket.
That form looks solid with the 5th & 7th (Crown, a stable mate of Kings
Of Leo) have won ok races since. She was a bigger model by early 5f standards
in the field at Newmarket and notably fiery in the pre-parade. Too strong
for the handler until led by two people. If she has settled down a bit
in attitude rather than become worse she has the speed and persistence
to make a strong challenge.
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In summary, the usual niggles with three weaker ones on profile in three
of the bottom four draws but none B2yoR would 'fancy' for the day. Mijas
Playa if she does not boil over the best of those drawn 1-4 and a strong
chance and might well lead into the final furlong as the target for a pouncer.
The 5-7 draws of Star Rover, Kings Of Leo & Archers Road make things
a bit tricky and the 9lbs penalty for Star Rover against his physical presence
takes him off the shortlist. Kings Of Leo a likeable filly but not thoroughly
convinced she would have the nous to deal with stall 6 efficiently. Archers
Road appeared to show a step forward in form level and a very mature approach
last time to make the most of his abilities. Backing something drawn 7
is always going to have you wondering if they are beaten but a solid profile
from a good professional. Mijas Playa the other strong profile and the
unfashionable trainer should help with the value.
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The Bath Auction race splits into a three-way choice between the
three with some 'form'. Richard Hannon is at the start of a period when
he gets a range of horses going and the horses he debuts in May usually
split around 60% to 40% season winners to non-winners. Last year the 22
season winners from 31 debuts in May was an early sign he had a better
than normal group of 2yos and the record year for the stable in some areas.
There will normally be 2-3 debut winners during the month (6 in 2008 as
the stats were very good overall). However, they tend to be with better
types at major tracks like Newmarket, Newbury, Goodwood & he targets
the mid-May maiden at Salisbury with higher class ones. Yer Woman
& Folletta do not read like that better type and more like the
get-them-started runs that his pair in the last Bath race had.
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Andy Haynes started well with his 2yos when he got a licence 4 years ago
having worked for Hannon. But, his stable had been quiet with 2yos for
a long time now and his last turf season juvenile winner was in July
2007. Mr Haynes had shown he could get 2yos ready for early debut wins
before but his record means his stable is one to avoid until the results
pick up. The FTO runs this season have all recorded negative estimates
to add to the concern. WHich means that Daniella De Bruijn
can be 7 foot tall and terrifically athletic and still not completely convince.
There is a vague chance that Whip Up might improve STO for Johnny
Portman but his horses to step forward to win have usually shown something
positive FTO even though they have not put a competent race together.
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So, Royal Desert, Curtains or Cane Cat? B2yoR had
that first 'Cold Shiver' of the season watching the Beverley race on Monday
as Petrocelli (the other apparently promising closer in Royal Desert's
latest effort) was trundling along in the shadow of the newcomer filly
The Hermitage. Big Powerball & Little Powerball (Petrocelli) and
no surprise to see the little one come to an abrupt halt early. Now, if
the best paddock guy B2yoR works with had got himself to Leicester we could
have saved ourselves that tribulation. Perhaps tell him that the Grudge
in the Holding Box on the wall for still being in the car-park when Norse
Dancer & Phoenix Reach ran on debut in the same maiden at Salisbury
in 2002 and the problems that caused has been removed.
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Anyway, the powder puff effort by Petrocelli diminishes the desire to support
Royal Desert who has not got into either race he has contested. He might
have won at Leicester but was closing onto three horses he could not keep
up with who had worn themselves out on each other. He should go ok but
not the sort of favourite B2yoR would want to support and let the race
pass it need be.
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Curtains made 5 places on his debut so is a qualifier in 'Eyecatchers'
list and since that is going ok with 2/3 so far & a 16/1 3rd (2
places). He was held up at the back as the others went too quick or failed
to handle the track and was giving the sort of uncomplicated ride at the
back which works as a nice introduction. Given time to get balanced at
his own pace with no strong intention of going for the win and today would
always have been the plan. That worked well because of the quality and
pressure the other 7 in the race put themselves under. He is probably a
similar standard to Royal Desert and receives a bit of weight and may be
at a longer SP.
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When the Class 4 Doncaster maiden for fillies on April 18th was run the
Preview went on about how it was often a duff race despite the billing
and this looked a mixed bag on profile, etc. That looks less than prescient
now with the 2nd & 4th having both won and looked at least average
maiden types and the third (My Mandy) has run well and goes in the Lily
Agnes. The 6th back look moderate or worse and the 6th has been beaten
in a seller. So the front of the race was solid and the back bit garbage
so what to make of Cane Cat in 5th? On one hand she was just ahead
of the failed seller filly but she was on FTO for a non-2yo stable. By
their standards it was a good debut. She never showed any pace to get into
the race but ran in mid-track which is not good and made up 4 places from
9th to 5th so a reasonable effort. Receiving a little bit more than the
5lbs fillies allowance from the other two in this Auction she represent
a solid each-way option if the price is right.
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In summary, Petrocelli's defeat colours the view of Royal Desert and let
him win unbacked at a shorter SP if necessary. Curtains probably a similar
level and an 'Eyecatcher'. Some interest in Cane Cat if the price is right
for each-way.
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And finally, the Seller at Bath is a type of race that always has
a fascination for the paddock people to see whether some horse they have
panned has finally been dropped to that level to prove them right. Let
us take True Red as an example who made an anonymous debut in a
Class 4 maiden. The sort of run that to someone who does not believe you
can tell how good a horse will be by looking at it would say was unproven
as Good or Bad. On her second run she was second in a Bath fillies race
above seller level and she now might look promising. If you are looking
at some dismissive paddock notes you instead wonder what was wrong with
the Bath event.
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The Bath race she was second in has produced a seller winner from the fourth
placer and a beaten seller runner with the eighth. The second in True Red
and the 6th (Kate Skate) are both in this seller. So, the race was
total garbage? Well the 5th has won well on Monday and the 3rd should win
after a pacesetting hindered STO effort. As sometimes is the case these
races can mix the abilities up and the 'Form Book' needs a bit of interpretation.
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You are Frank Carter at the 'Racing Post' writing about 2yos for a race
and stuck for something to say. The only answer is to reach into the bag
of alternatives for saying "The Market knows everything and will provide
all the answers...". If that were really true Mr Carter should pack
it in and be replaced by some sort of 'Marketwatch' or indicator or the
like. If it is not then why write it for 50%+ of the Spotlights? How about
putting in the SP levels that would indicate the 'Market' does know something?
Whatever, a number of those dropped to this race have been at relatively
short prices in open maidens and auctions. Mostly because of the connections
they have rather than good Market intelligence. Boga was 7/2 for
her lost Lingfield debut; Kate Skate 6/1 for a tough Haydock race; Little
Perc opened single figures at Windsor in a maiden because Gary Moore is
respected; True Red has been punted down to 5/2 and even True Red has opened
at 5/1 (although she did drift to 7/1). All presented as below average
types when they walked into the pre-parade rings but the Market does not
take a great deal of notice of physical type. It might react to shininess
& attitude a bit more because that is where traditional paddock view
looks.
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One other point to make in general about seller runners dropping from better
races. They are the inverse of 'Eyecatchers' in that they usually will
managed good fades and lost lots of places in the second half of their
races. Lesser physical types taken along above their cruising speed by
better horses and crumpling under the pressure. Nearly all the runners
here have lost places in most of their runs and a sure sign they are limited
and will drop in race quality. True Red has lot 3/1/4 places in 3 goes,
Kate Skate 3 & 7 and Safari Camp 4 each time. In general supported
horses who do not see races out in not much of an idea because they are
showing that the lack some power for the job. In a seller like this though
you are sweeping up the faders from the back of a number of races and lumping
them together to make a race that they can be competitive and will go along
at their pace and produce a slow time. Spotting which will fade less under
the less taxing set-up ought to be doable though. The same 'Power' rules
apply and the bigger ones should still prevail.
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In summary, Transfixed has run 2 competent races at this level for
a net gain of one place but is penalised 5lbs. She has a 5lbs apprentice
on but that is David Evans' huge son so will look a bit odd. A limited
type but reliable to set a base level to beat and probably place but find
something a bit better. True Red is similarly competent and probably a
tiny bit bigger and has no penalty and has found her right level. Should
go fine. Kate Skate & Boga may have a little bit more power but have
shown limited competence (Boga) or inability to settle (Kate Skate). Not
very taking profiles. Bathwick Gino would have the profile to step
forward STO but runs for Mr Haynes so a 'No'.
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Which means that, with some trepidation the finger points at Safari
Camp as the special one who can show he is a bit better than this.
He is better than True Red on plain power terms and proved it at Brighton.
He finished 6th but actually led into the final furlong and that is an
extended 5f. He has the basic pace and size to go well in this group and
the only niggle is that he fades late. A stiff track like this is not ideal
but if he can settle a fair chance of lasting home. No chance if competes
for the lead. Backing horses that lose 4 places in the second half of races
regularly is not recommended but that is part of the reason why betting
in lower quality races can be trickier. You are not backing quality horses
who put full races together. It is not just a 'consistency' issue as such.
The low quality ones are running consistently but they do not have the
'Power' to see races out comfortably.
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