-
Congratulations to Star Rover for his win in the Lily Agnes and a
rare feat to win 4 races in a season these days let alone by early May.
With conditions playing fast a position in the first two places, or just
behind, and close to the rail proved a requirement to have a chance of
winning. The start and where you were placed when the race settled down
vital to the result. Archers Road seemed a little mulish before the race
sorts and ran in Lane 1 throughout giving up more ground than he was beaten
by the rail-running Star Rover. But, to give 6lbs to him and win was a
good effort by the winner. The immediate quote of 8/1 for the Norfolk Stakes
seemed about right leaving enough room for the better quality runners higher
in the Market. Star Rover has already exceeded the B2yoR expectations but
his type usually come up short in an average Norfolk although he would
have a solid chance in the Windsor Castle.
-
Which brings us to the sorry tale of the recent history of the 5f Conditions
Race at Goodwood recently. This has been around in various forms over
the years but in 2006 got made a Listed race and was one by Sonny Red from
Chief Editor (unfortunately fatally injured at Newmarket over the weekend).
With Windsor Castle winner Elhamri unplaced that was a reasonable edition
of the event but still too early to be adding yet another Listed race before
the Hilary Needler (Beverley) & National Stakes (Sandown). In 2007
it moved to this earlier date and Spirit Of Sharjah murdered a rag-bag
of 'Black Type' chancers. Last year it was demoted back to a Conditions
event by the Pattern Race Committee. A small field contained two later
Listed race winners but as the season unfolded it became clear that Smokey
Storm was not real Listed quality. Even Icesolator looked out of place
up in class.
-
This year has just four declared and one is Star Rover. If he runs
you at least have the chance of a solid winner but without him you have
a suspect race. The weight concession he would have to carry (Preview written
before it was known whether he would run) should mean a closer race than
it might appear at first look. However, the professional way he runs and
the strong way he finishes races off would make it hard to see him getting
beaten if at his best. On debut he beat Desert Auction by 6 lengths
& would have to give him 9lbs here (but check whether the Lily Agnes
success means an extra penalty) which would not appear enough to change
the result. Desert Auction was not as ready in fitness & nous terms
but has not had to improve much to win 3TO in a weak race. On his second
run he was comfortably beaten by a horse (Soccer) that has not rated as
highly as Star Rover.
-
Grand Zafeen would be getting at least 14lbs from Star Rover and
did well to beat an experienced rival FTO. She comes out second on profile
but still a couple of lengths back. Eoghan O'Neill runs the newcomer Hairs
Vital who had also been an entry for the Lily Agnes but has found a
better race to start in here. The trainer has always seemed to have a good
grip on the ability of his 2yos and to place them appropriately. He starts
the better ones in batches and usually knows what level they will perform
to. He gets regular debut wins but they have all been in maiden, auction
or selling races. He has not started a juvenile in this race type before.
He is the second runner for new sire Pearl Of Love (after the tiny &
limited Little Perc) out of a well bred dam who won over 5f on March 30th
as a 2yo in Ireland. She later was unplaced up to a mile and also over
hurdles so her peak had past before the season had really opened. An interesting
contender.
-
In summary, if Star Rover is present and runs to the Lily Agnes form he
should be able to battle to a victory even with the weight concession.
Interesting to see whether there is support for Hairs Vital out of respect
for the trainer. Without Star Rover a tricky choice with the other three
within 5 points of each other on profile and a race to leave until after
the paddock.
-
===============
-
Very hard to see past Swilly Ferry at Chester in a poor to
moderate looking field for the Class 3 maiden. If you look at the recent
history of the race you can make a good case at the headline level for
the race having some strong future significance. But, that has always
relied on a single trainer - Barry Hills. He won the race in 2005 with
River Kintyre who is a very close model for Swilly Ferry. That one had
been 4th in the Brocklesby and then won STO at Chester surviving a pace
battle with some limited types. He proved to be a just above average handicapper.
In 2006 Mr Hills won again with Captain Marvellous whose later successes
included a Nursery & a German Group 2 race (below our standard by some
way in most years).
-
He was at it again in 2007 when Dark Angel won STO after placing at Newmarket
(as Captain Marvelous had) and he went on to keep on beating the same Group
of horses up to Group 1 level. Even though beating the same crew he was
always said to be "..going up in grade.." which seemed odd. He was
not a good Group 1 winner and hoiked off to stud before having to prove
he was short of Group 1 class as a 3yo. We have seen elements of this with
the 2,000 Guineas win for Sea The Stars. Last year the same group of 2yos
kept meeting (Lord Shanakill, Intense Focus, Finjaan, Shaweel etc) without
any looking better class and just a solid standard. We had a lot of 'nice'
ones but without the true Group 1 standouts like New Approach & Ravens
Pass who had spread their Dewhurst field out. That left space for a real
Group 1 type to come along and win well (Sea The Stars), for one of the
chorus line to improve past the others (Delegator) or for another heads-n-necks
bunfight which we were spared.
-
Last year Mr Hills relied on another Newmarket placer with Senatorial who
could not place from drawn 8 and proved an OR79 type at 2yo anyway and
perhaps a bit better given his 3yo start. The winner last year was a well
prepared Richard Hannon filly that ended up in a claimer and being let
go for £10,000. Take the Hills runners out of the last four years
and the best of the rest are maiden winners with some sneaking over OR80.
Most of the fields have been poor and non-winners. The later winners have
come from a small set of sources which you can characterise as 'Major Southern'
(Hills, Meehan & Hannon, oh, and Sylvester Kirk) and 'Major Northern'
(Kevin Ryan, David Nicholls & John Quinn).
-
You look through this year's field and you have a solid one from Mr Hills
(Swilly Ferry) and nothing from another Southern stable of any size.
There is no Ryan or Johnston and just a couple of usable ones from David
Nicholls (Johnnyleary) & John Quinn (Metal Soldier).
The set of fillies with previous runs are all proven limited unless Bossy
Kitty (Picture)
has more to show than her anonymous debut. She has some power and was not
fit enough FTO but the trainer is a negative overall. The draw has been
kind to most of those higher in the profile although Swilly Ferry is a
bit high in stall 6. The greater spread in ability in this maiden has meant
that winners and placed horses have managed to come form stall 6-9 at times.
Tracking Reel Credit Crunch (stall 2), for example, and having to
get by her in the last 2 furlongs is a much easier assignment than trying
to get past Star Rover.
-
David Nicholls has generally started solid 2yos in this race such as Northern
Fling but they have tended to have poor draws and show promise without
getting involved. He has not yet convinced he has his 2yos ready to win
FTO in 2009 yet but that will come. He has a good draw in 1 if he can use
it and one whose prospects should be clear after 100 yards. John Quinn
rarely uses the race but started a solid maiden winner last year who placed.
The win for DUchess Dora two days ago was a good encapsulation of the Quinn
approach. He chooses a couple of competitive 2yos to run first each year.
They are competent FTO and can place with average ability but will be short
of winning. They are close to peaking STO and in the right race and will
go close to winning. His placer her last year won STO to order.
-
In summary, Swilly Ferry well clear on profile and with a solid enough
draw. Inside him he has a couple of zippy fillies who may well lead but
have already expired before the final furlong in lesser company. Also there
are the best two newcomers who would need to be readier and above average
class to benefit if Swilly Ferry gets into any problems. Nothing outside
of any interest although worth noting Angelena Ballerina for the
future with Alan Bailey usually running something usable at the meeting.
If Bossy Kitty were trained by Mr Quinn or similar then some each-way interest
if she had come on well physically for debut. If Swilly Ferry fails then
a low level performance needed to win and you still think a newcomer would
be able to clamber past Bebenine (assuming Spencer has not wrangled her
back to last at the start) in the straight.
-
==============
-
The fillies' race at Windsor has an interesting cast and the draw
has put most of the better profiles in usable draws. Existentialist
was well draw here last time and placed 3rd at 28/1 behind two small, but
solid early 5f fillies. The long SP typical for the stable with the Market
rarely knowing which are the good ones (hence the 33/1 debut win in 2008).
She ran well overall being 4th through halfway on the rail and making some
response in the second half to get through to 3rd and not lose much ground
to the battling leaders.
-
The horses just behind her look solid enough with a question mark over
whether Little Brazilien has anything more to show. The 5th - Kings Of
Leo - was given a Hughes try-out for pace ride and has won a fillies' race
since at Warwick (difficult to read what value that was) before running
moderately in the Lily Agnes two days later. The 6th - Ice Cool Lady -
was another Walter Swinburn early 2yo (notably 'quick' start this year)
who was supported but ran just an ok, but promising enough, debut. The
7th & 8th were solid midfield types to suggest the race quality was
ok. With a good draw again and a professional run she should be a strong
favourite and a major barrier to a better newcomer.
-
The other two with form need to step forward terrifically. Country Princess
was one of two lost early runs for Ralph Beckett & he did not bother
running anything for a month. The first of those early runners - Any Day
- came back to run a very professional race STO but her basic lack of ability
meant a second to a bigger lunatic with a seller winner closing behind
her. Country Princess was supported FTO to suggest she is ok and better
than Any Day and the €55,000 price tag would support the view. Seb
Sanders rides when he avoided Any Day's STO effort to ride for Clive Brittain
(who runs newcomer Zinjbar here). Which all suggests she should
step forward a lot but drawn 1 and after such a tame check-out on debut
in a weak race comes up short on profile. Silvee is well drawn and
received a few bob of each-way support FTO but was too daft to get involved
after a slow start. The trainer has a solid record with older horses but
2yo wins are rare and more a development project if she is any good at
all.
-
Zinjbar is very expensive at $350,000 and another early runner for Mr Brittain
after three other fillies have finished 7th (25/1), 1st (9/2 with late
support against an odds-on favourite) & 3rd (7/2 in that weak race
with Any Day). The winner looked better class in line with the type of
2yo wins the trainer gets. His debut 3rd (Forget) had a remarkably stout
pedigree for 5f in early season and Zinjbar is not much better. She is
by the very good Roberto-line US sire Dynaformer (Rainbow View & all
that) but his record with British 2yos show 7-10f wins and the best record
at 8f in later season. His earliest winner has been July 18th but by Rainbow
View who could win early on class. His only 6f win was in a maiden and
the Dam of that one was a Group winning 6f 2yo for Jeremy Noseda. The dam
is well related but going to have to add a lot of zip which seems a tad
unlikely. Why would Sanders not be on this one is she was another Misheer?
Perhaps another small one bought for her pedigree as much as the athletic
potential.
-
Desert Poppy is yet another well ahead of schedule runner for Walter
Swinburn and he looks to have decided to try to get more 2yo runs for his
syndicates which run over 2 years (i.e. for the 2yo to 3yo seasons). As
noted above the first three have all had some support and shown promise
but not the fine tuning the debut wins the stable does get (often Harris
family home-breds after mid-season, keeping in with the Father-In-Law).
She is well drawn and has a very believable 5f 2yo pedigree. The dam was
one of those high class 2yos & sprinters Tim Easterby used to get tend
years ago but does not now. You wonder sometimes whether the yearling buying
staff has changed along the way. Oasis Dream is fine support for that sort
of dam. Another solid debut for a usable 2yo at least and some sort of
support. Well placed to bumble into a surprise debut win if Existentialist
misfires or fails to believe in herself enough.
-
Barry Hills has had two debut wins at the course this year but with colts
who would normally have made Newmarket debuts. Red Jazz won on better ability
bu the more we learn about Be Invincible's debut race the more it looks
like the 1st two were solid types who bubbled to the top through dross
for the most part. Billie Jean is a breeze-up purchase whose pedigree
looked a lot better after Cockney Rebel came along as a later foal. The
other winners from the dam have been ordinary at best. On balance, despite
being well drawn, seems more likely to be an average debut than a strong
one to compete for the win and probably at poor odds with the trainer in
such good overall form.
-
Angie's Nap missed her intended Folkestone and has just a so-so
profile. The trainer's early runners are usually competitive to place FTO
in weaker races and show there best STO. This one is probably OR65-70 kit
in the long term and not good enough to force a win but a good marker for
the race presuming she will run competently from a good draw. Might well
make a sort of 'Volunteer 3rd-4th' spot.
-
Richard Hannon runs two with Aegean Destiny looking the first string
over La Pantera but neither are well drawn. Both are cheap sales
types with non obvious pedigree for this job. They read as two moderate
to average ones starting out rather than the high class ones that win for
the trainer FTO off his unpressed preparations. A couple of stables have
their first runners of the year and of different importance to 2yo racing.
John Hills runs Itwasonlyakiss and his record with juveniles is
poor. 2-4 winners a year from around 20 runners and poor Strike Rates.
The odd debut wins and places but usually with really good ones like Ashram
last year and promise on early runs not smoothly converted to a win if
at all (like Layer Cake in 2008). Overall a stable to avoid and let the
odd win beat you.
-
Jamie Osborne is a much more interesting subject and has targeted 2yos
since 2003 which was his best year including Milk It Mick's Dewhurst success.
The 2yo success has been variable since with 2008 notably poor with illness
affecting many of the horses. He does not seek strong debuts and they come
along with the odd natural in early season or with the high class ones.
This is a late start for him and perhaps he has waited to make sure the
horses are ok before getting going. The earliest runners are typically
competitive 2yos but of various abilities and the earliest can include
a weaker one to be used as a marker to judge how the others will go. Jasmine
Scent reads as a cheap retainee for a solid pedigree which could produce
a 5-6f winner. On balance just an average one and likely to show promise
in 4-6th if ok.
-
In summary, would not be going to the course looking to oppose Existientialist
unless you can feel the 'Rays' coming off one of the others in paddock
review. Need to check out Country Princess to see how she fits with a better
STO effort assured although draw 1 looks very tough. Swinburn will have
a good debut soon & Desert Poppy appeals more at the likely odds than
Billie Jean or the best of the Hannon pair as an each-way. Presume Angie's
Nap is smaller but usable and a good marker for the form and Zinjbar smaller
and not 5f and here because....? Check how the first Osborne runner of
2009 looks and goes.
|
