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Virtual Paddock - 1 from each of Lingfield,
Nottingham & Ripon (Stargaze, Habaayib & Oondiri)
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The record of the first three runners from the 'Eyecatchers' trial list
last week was 2 wins and a surprise 16/1 3rd in a (probably modest quality)
conditions race. The latest two have been Curtains who came up short at
Bath two days ago and then Swilly Ferry beaten at long odds-on at Chester
yesterday. The latter of those had been absent since the Brocklesby and
you wonder whether he had a minor problem because he seemed to run a very
similar race. He tracked the pacemakers then made a short effort
to get past the very small Reel Credit Crunch into the final furlong but
stalled himself very quickly as he had at Doncaster. Short of fitness again
or how he sees races out at present? He was racing 2 wide throughout which
was a problem the jockey might have tried to resolve as the winner ran
the rail and pounced but not keeping the lead over the filly is a moderate
effort. [Looking at later races including the 6f handicap where the first
3 were in formation on the rail and the others struggled to make any ground
you would wonder whether there was an going advantage on the rail as well
as going the shortest way. Something to add into the thoughts about Archers
Road (1 wide) & Star Rover (rail) in the Lily Agnes.
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David Evans buys lots of cheap little ones and get them fit and ready for
early season. When you get ones that have the right attitude like Star
Rover & Reel Credit Crunch they can perform well but you still know
that their lack of build and scope will catch up with them as the season
progresses. You would suspect the form of that Chester maiden is poor and
Reel Credit Crunch will be below OR70 by season end.
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Which brings us to Hamilton and a seven runner field with two that
appeared on that list with Rock Of Love & Dower Glen.
The first of those was the first sign of the Mark Johnston 2yos improving
when he finished fourth in a what looked a good maiden at Pontefract. He
lost 3 three lengths with a witless pick-up from a wider draw and went
through halfway in 9th and more than 9 lengths off a solid pace. He more
ground on the uphill section as the jockey looked to drop in from a wide
position. Once into the straight he made enough of an effort to get past
the weaker ones to 5th by 1 furlong out. He plugged on to get past the
fading filly Parbold Hill to fourth late but without making any ground
on the better class first three. Just an ok effort overall and you would
like to have seen him making more progress in the final furlong.
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He is likely to be favourite but needs to improve his professionalism and
his finish here. You could see him getting a bit behind downhill if something
presses on and he did not go like a pace horse FTO. He would be plugging
on uphill but that lack of a strong finish on debut and the price make
him seem a passable shorter priced favourite.
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Dower Glen got behind in 10th in a large field Haydock fillies race and
around 7 lengths back at halfway. She made places late on by picking up
faders and not making any ground on the first three as with Rock Of Love.
Difficult to read what that amounted to although it was a poor form level
on the day. She was just in front of the fading Goodbye Earl who ran ok
in 4th in the Lily Agnes from a good draw (and a rail run from memory..).
Just behind her was a similarly kindly introduced Mrs Boss who ran third
in a fillies conditions race at Salisbury although that is likely to be
moderate form (say low OR70s at best in whole season terms). Just behind
both of them was Kate Skate who has finished 2nd since but in a weak Bath
seller by plugging on past exhausted rabbits. Which means you are judging
Dower Glen on potential rather than demonstrated ability. On the plus side
her trainer, a common point in this Preview, runs the competitive ones
early so she should improve and be usable but not a strong profile.
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Midnight Uno achieved a little bit more with a debut 4th and the
trainer's 2yos have needed the FTOs to improve from this year. His overall
record with runners in Scotland in sound in terms of plenty of places but
just two wins. They were both at claimer level in 2004 with Goldhill
Prince. The upper level of from required to win this race may well be low
unless Rock Of Love hugely improves so a step forward should see a place
at least.
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Howard Johnson has run two so far with the expensive one for Transcend
Bloodstock running a strong place ahead of Rock Of Love while not looking
tuned and a poor debut by a cheap one he owned. Valantino Star cost
€12,000 and he appears to own it so it seems unlikely to be a better
debut. Charity Fair may well add to the poor debuts that the Alan
Berry 2yos have made so far. Because they are so weak & often chaotic
this early in the season a vaguely solid run is actually solid promise.
Which is why Goodbye Earl's 6/14 FTO was so good in context. The only other
one to look like there might be something 'in there' was Lord's Seat but
he looked uncontrollable to post although with some natural speed &
power.
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The other newcomer returns us to the Richard Fahey 5f debut tale. Early
ones (March) usually underdone unless a natural like Mister Hardy then
a burst of better ones in May with as least a couple winning FTO. He is
conforming to the pattern and looked to introduce a couple of better ones
last week with Newbury Street & Ventura Cove. They found the opposition,
and perhaps the going, too tough but ran ok. After a short break he has
two more FTOs today with Olympic Ceremony in this race. He is a
full brother to Olympic Dream who was one of those underdone Fahey debuts
in 2008 when unplaced in the Brocklesby. A solid pedigree for the job and
should be better suited by this later debut. The trainer won, an all FTO
runner, edition of the race last year with a limited one (at 15/2) and
started the useful Steelcut in it .
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In summary, two Eyecatchers with borderline promise depending how you judge
things. No strong mid-race moves or steaming 'Going on at the Finish' place
making but getting past stalled horses or picking off faders. The improvement
in Johnston stable form a positive but, on video review, a favourite to
pass over. If you can convince yourself that Rock Of Love might be short
of the 'Major Stable Improver' billing a number plausible middling level
raters. Supporting Fahey 5f debuts has proved a long-term benefit so perhaps
the 'lazy option' here.
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The Preview for the Bath race that Stargaze ran in suggested he
would improve from a lost debut on softer going at Newbury when he looked
to lack fitness and being a little overawed by the experience. He did improve
and managed to get to fourth but overall he did not go through the race
like a horse for whom this downhill 5f with a sharp bend was the obvious
next step. He had to work hard to get across from a wide to slot in 5th
behind a stiff pace and be around three lengths of the leader at halfway.
But, he was regularly niggled along looking perhaps like the pace was stretching
him although he always responded and never appeared to break. As he got
tired towards the end he rolled around and over to the far rail.
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Overall, a solid STO from a horse still learning and toning up but still
with some way to go. Another go on a stiff 5f or wait for the 6f races
perhaps since they start this weekend. Switch to a faster track and put
some emphasis on going around a bend well balanced sounds less good. Perhaps
the more even surface will help him. But, with that niggle in your mind
it is difficult to feel confident about supporting him even though you
believe in him as a winner in the season.
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Bells' Ocean is unlikely to run having been second to Existentialist
yesterday (the second strong, long SP, debut for the trainer this year)
& Jackie Danny not good enough. Diamond Affair was a
talking horse on debut and back to second favourite behind Monsieur Chevalier.
She went tearing off in front with Safari Camp and they both faded badly
just after halfway. She finished behind Safari Camp who completed his consistent
career by losing four places later in the race in a seller two days ago.
Just behind her was a filly who has won a claimer. Either she has some
real ability or that FTO support was either a whisper gone wrong or based
on some quick work over a short distance which does not last 5f. Interesting
to see what the Market says but the first effort suggests she wont get
home strongly but might put Stargaze under pressure.
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What about the newcomers, anything there to take Stargaze on with? I'malwaysright
looks short on profile and the trainer gets his debut wins in later season
with high class horses. This is a cheap breeze-up purchase & does not
fit that profile. The other two both run for trainers you could characterise
in the same way. They have their 2yos competent for debut although short
of full fitness and not wound up. They do not have Alan Berry style hoodlums
& gormless ones en masse. This means that when they have a good one
it can win on debut on basic ability while being below it's best. Having
said that Jim Boyle (Khanivorous) has never had a debut winner although
a few places at decent odds. Wiliam Muir (Strike Shot) does get
regular debut wins but from June onwards when his 2yos are that bit more
conditioned and tuned. To make the point the win by Metal Soldier for John
Quinn at Chester yesterday was this type of set-up. Metal Soldier is almost
certainly just an average, or slightly better, maiden winner type but in
a soft race once Swilly Ferry failed. Beating a limited filly like Reel
Credit Crunch while having the same rail advantage she had is not strong
effort required FTO.
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Both these runners have solid pedigrees for the 5f job and the dam for
Khanivorous is a good support to Dubai Destination. The trainer is another
of those who runs likely winners in the first batch and this is his first
for 2009. Mr Muir has already run a few and they have managed two 5ths
& a 10th. Particularly note Blue Zephyr who was one of those 5th but
keeping on well from a very slow break. On the basis of promise on debut
means a solid one he should be quite good. Strike Shot is by an old dam
who used to produce good sprint 2yos although it has tailed off recently.
The new sire Avonbridge has had hints of ok types but without a winner
yet although this one was above his average so probably a solid type.
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In summary, rather watch how the theory about Stargaze's suitability for
this test plays out than support him. Diamond Affair probably another short
runner and the Market informative about what the debut 'Gamble' was actually
about. The newcomers from solid trainers would need a Stargaze underperform
to win by default rather than overpowering him but that is a possibility.
Khanivorous most interesting in that eventuality.
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A big field for the Nottingham fillies' maiden and this brings the
question of the draw into play. The races at the course this year have
all been small fields which have stayed together on the stands' rail. The
course(s) used for 5f at Nottingham are not that wide and with a field
of 15 it is easier for a low drawn runner to get across to the far rail
than to race midtrack or try to drop in towards the stands' rail. If the
stalls are placed against the far rail then the same comments apply for
the high draws but in reverse.
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The 2007 edition of this race was a good example of the nonsense that can
occur with 4 fillies running the stands' rail (including the 33/1 winner)
and 7 going far side. Since only one later winner emerged from that group
the 33/1 might just have been the wrong price. Last year the whole field
of 15 stayed stands' side and being close to the rail was an advantage
with 3 of the first 5 drawn 12-14 and the placed runner from stall 6 got
a 3 length lead for free & crossed to the rail. That was a better race
with a range later winners spread though the pack. In 2006 the field stayed
stands' side and 4 of the first 5 home were drawn in 9-12 with the exception
a 3TO runner who blasted out from 4 and crossed to the rail having cleared
the field.
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Which turns a simple looking profile into a slightly tougher proposition.
In summary Habaayib made a solid debut in a good race and
made a forward move against the pace before stalling and the jockey going
easy. Normal improvement would see her set a stiff standard but she is
drawn 3. She looked an ok physical type although a bit lightly made
for the price she cost but that is not our problem as such. None of the
others with previous runs have shown worthwhile form and Hachi (a
test of the Be Invincible race & Travellers Kingdom's promise) &
Pursuit Of Gold will need to improve greatly to win. Both would
be drawn next to the stands' rail if the stalls are that side so have a
good spot if they can find some extra go.
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The shortlist for possible strong debuts comes to Mistic Magic (Drawn
6, especially if supported), Silver In The Sand (drawn better in
14) & perhaps Tartufo Dolce (8). The first of those is an expensive
daughter of under-rated sire Orpen who produces high Strike Rates every
year despite a dwindling number of runners. 5f 2yos are ok. Paul Cole gets
lots of debut places but wins often come with high class ones at bigger
course like Newmarket & York or with thoroughly prepared (usually visible)
better types in later season. The odd ones win at lesser tracks and this
sort of thinner race with a favourite poorly drawn and not much midfield
defence if she comes up short is ok for an 'accident'. Ryan Moore riding
seems a positive.
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James Bethell is another trainer that frontloads the better 2yos into the
early debuts and Silver In The Sand is his first runner. Debuts can be
variable but he is another 'Competent FTO' who does get FTO wins and places
with the right set-up .This one is an owner bred out of an older dam who
has proved a poor producer so you are relying on Mr Bethell choosing this
as a competitive one rather than a tiny type before you see her. Trends
can be hard to kill and James Given still means 'Early 5f debut' attempts
to B2yoR although they seem a little scarcer recently. His two runners
in 2009 have produced a FTO 2nd who led for a long way for the same owners
as Tartufo Dolce. She has a good 2yo pedigree being a full sister
to Supersprint winner Siena Gold (a debut winner for Bryan Meehan) although
the dam is getting elderly.
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Of the others worth looking out for support for Pat Eddery's Bramshill
Lady who is well drawn although she seems more likely to need
further and a 4th to 6th range effort ok promise.
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In final summary, if you ignore the draw there are a wide range of abilities
in the field and it should spread out with the best 5-6 getting to the
front ok. Habaayib has a perfectly solid profile and not one to oppose
overall. Mistic Magic an obvious strong debut candidate and should place
at least. Silver In The Sand and Tartufo Dolce more each way possibles.
Outside of that you are into lesser profiles who would need to be better
physical types than they promise. If the field splits then it is much more
difficult to call in advance where the bias will be. If the whole field
goes stands' side then Habaayib needs to be ridden prominently, Silver
In The Sand is well drawn and Tartufo Dolce will probably be ridden forward
anyway (trainer's style with competitive ones).
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Another Richard Fahey 5f debut in the Auction race at Ripon with
Ingleby Spirit. Although he only cost 25,000 guineas he has to carry
an 8lbs penalty for that purchase price. This means he is giving at least
4lbs to the other males and up to 13lbs to the cheapest fillies. On the
plus side he has a good 5lb apprentice riding and has a good draw next
to the rail. On profile he comes out joint top with Pinnacle Lad.
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He received some support at long odds FTO and ran well from a high draw
in the same race as Stargaze. He had got to 7th at halfway and plugged
on to finish 6th and that race looks likely to produce a number of winners
from the 2nd to 6th range with the 7th having already won by gaining a
laughably easy lead at Kempton. Trainer John Spearing is a quiet but trustworthy
operator with a solid record of STO conversions of promise. Drawn in 3
he looks a solid alternative to the Fahey runner,
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The three fillies with previous runs include two who have run too
poorly to be able to see them improving to compete here. Oondiri
is a limited athlete but has shown some natural zip in both runs before
fading late. She is drawn wide but will probably get away quickly and cross
towards the stands' rail. For a paddock type she is always going to be
one to oppose because despite being a trier and making the most of herself
she is always vulnerable to anything bigger. You could not face backing
her and watching a hulking (if he is) Ingleby Spirit trotting next to her
into the final furlong knowing what was going to happen. You would rather
bet on something else.
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A couple of other interesting debut runners with Pepper Lane &
Sir Christie. The first of those is trained by the shrewd David
Barron whose 6 FTOs to date have produced one win, two places & 3 4-5ths
in big fields. The winner was at 18/1 & the two places at 16/1 &
8/1. Two of the 4-5ths have received support (one from 10/1 to 100/30f).
This sort of lack of focus with the Market support is a regular feature
and B2yoR usually ignores it as part of the 'Believe what you can see yourself'
approach. But, this one has a middling profile and this is not a strong
race so a place would be no surprise.
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Sir Christie is a full brother to three 5f 2yo winner so has to
be of some interest. Those three have managed a win (in a claimer) &
a third on debut. The last two have raced for Nigel Tinkler as this one
does and, predictably, have won at claimer level because that is what the
trainer can manage. A poor record with 2yos overall for the stable but
the odd long priced place but not a stable to trust overall.
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B2yoR was flicking through a results book from the 1980s recently &
there was trainer Mel Brittain having the winners of 5 of the first 8 juvenile
races of the year and places in the other two. All with cheap purchases
but that cannot as easily now because there are less races and the overall
competition tougher. Last year he ran a lot of low grade ones early and
the four winners for the year had all run my April 11th. This year he has
run just 5 with a couple of debut places and three of the 5 have managed
to place in moderate races. You wonder whether he has a poor bunch this
year or is behind in general. Sacred Star runs for him here
as the next in his latest batch to start so a chance to check whether the
early runners were the sum total of the competitive ones he has.
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In summary, do not believe in Oondiri on principle and much happier to
pick from the reliable trainer Spearing's Pinnacle Lad or the Fahey newcomer
Ingleby Spirit. A strong effort from Pepper lane no surprise.
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