British 2yo Racing - 2009 Season
<< 2009 Season
Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - May 9th
Races :-
  • Ascot 2:50, 5f Maiden (3)
  • Haydock 3:40, 6f Maiden (5) Div I
  • Haydock 4:15, 6f Maiden (5) Div II
  • Thirsk 6:10, 5f Seller (5)
  • Warwick 6:25, 5.5f Auction (5)

  •   May 9th Summary : 
    • A slightly different start to this Preview partly for a very good reason and also for a less obvious one. Firstly the non obvious one. Yesterday's Preview spent a lot of time on a Nottingham race which had 6 non-runners (firm ground issues), including the most interesting newcomers, and made it an entirely different event. It also covered the problems Stargaze might have on the downhill turn on Lingfield's AW track. All very well, but it was on the straight turf course (apologies for the error) and he was drawn next to the rail on the 'Magic Carpet' which can make handicappers look like Group performers when in full force. Add in some clueless newcomers and a mismatch. Oh, and two races won by horses who were not mentioned at all. So, part of the reason is to write something worthwhile in the Preview which might last for at least 24 hours. [If the Previews ever descend to stuff like ".. Archers Road is a bonny colt who should go well [for no solidly argued reason]....." then hopefully they will disappear before someone asks B2yoR to stop.]
    • The second reason is that the day sees the first races at longer than 5f. Remember that 5f is seen as a lesser discipline and a specialist one many in the racing world. The bigger stables will consider the 6f races as the minimum to be aiming at with their better types and 7f the prize distance at 2yo. If you think about it the trainers we have seen with runners so far are the usual ones with Hannon, Channon & Barry Hills the larger stables who do run a few better ones early over 5f. Which means that when the 6f races start there may well be a number of larger stables with a batch of solid horses to start off. With a dry and warmish Spring this year you suspect a number of stables will be solidly forward. The 6f Maiden at Haydock has been divided with 26 juveniles declared in total to add some support to that theory.
    • Now, between the start of the 6f races and the end of May there are a small set of major maidens that tend to attract better fields. The Haydock race only started out last year but the first three home included two that placed at Royal Ascot and the other won twice up to Novice level. The York Dante Meeting next week has a 6f maiden which is the next checkpoint in this period. At the end of next week the Newbury meeting has a 6f race which regularly produces big fields and important horses and the Ripon meeting on that weekend can produce a useful horse (often from Mark Johnston). Through to the end of May there are then maidens at lesser courses each day with a number of 6f maidens at Newmarket & Goodwood as possible targets for better 2yos.
    • Let us pretend you are a Trainer with a large string and a variety of owners including several Arab based and you have to deal with a range of Racing Managers as well as strong minded owners. You have only run one over 5f so far which was just a tryout and it ran a shocker on softer going so you decided to stop this 5f nonsense and wait for the 6f races. You have been at this for a long time so you know the landscape you will be crossing through to the end of June and you tend to use the same approach. The training has identified which are the forward ones who are ready to try a run and also which have looked the quality ones which have done the basic training without being pressed at all. You have not, in historical Bill Turner style, run full out trial races between them to get to the bottom of the where they fit on the Merit List. How are you going to place your horses? Here are a few of the things you might consider :-
      • How are you going to keep the owners happy? Do they like to have runners at major meetings or do they like winners anywhere. For major owners with a lot of expensive ones what do they want to do with the best and, as importantly, the lesser ones. Get the average and worse ones going early to get a win and then sell them on at the 'Horses In Training' sales or hide them away. If the major owner has horses with other trainers you will have to agree with their Racing Manager where your horses fit.
      • With the ones you think might have Royal Ascot possibilities for mid-June how do you want to play the debut? Most trainers do not like to take maidens to Listed & Group races so want to win first. If you are a 'Nice Intro' trainer that means you either need to leave time for two runs before Ascot (with a minimum of 14 days between runs) or press a bit harder on debut to get the win. If you take your good prospect to a major meeting for a targeted 6f race it might run really well and finish third. Go to Leicester or the like and you might pick up a maiden unpressed and can then concentrate on the training. But, then again, it might not learn anything to help it when the Coventry Stakes kicks off with a frantic pace.
      • Do you care much about Ascot at all? Unless you are perhaps looking to produce a Stallion with a 6f 2yo Group win on the C.V. the distance hierarchy might mean you will wait for the later 7f races or some of the soft 6f Group races in later season (the Mill Reef can often be pretty empty). Do you just use the start of the 6f races to get some ordinary maiden types going.
    • The table below summarises the approach to May to early June debuts for a small set of major trainers who all have horses declared for Haydock.
    Trainer Early 6f Debuts in 2005-8
    Mick Channon
    • 2008 = First debut May 16th Newbury - Orizaba won 11/4 (placed Royal Ascot). 2 more on May 23rd with 3rd for two later maiden winners at 7/1 & 20/1. 7 more in a batch May 27th to June 3rd - 3 placed FTO & none worse than 6th in big fields. SP range in late batch 3/1 to 14/1 with limited relevance. Most were up to winning ordinary Maidens & Auctions.
    • 2007 = First debut May 17th York & Nawaaff 2nd at 7/2. Only 2 more to end May with a seller win well beaten & solid Jaber Abdullah owned runner 4th at Newmarket at 12/1 in big field
    • 2006 = First debut May 19th 2nd at Hamilton where he targets debut wins for Ahmed Al Maktoum. 2 long priced, unplaced, debuts at Newbury with later seller & maiden winner. 3 more debuts in late May at Goodwood & Newmarket with two 3rds. 2 x later maiden winners including older Group winner Majestic Roi & 2yo Group Winner Alzerra.
    • 2005 = First debut May 10th with 10/1 win by useful runner at Yarmouth. Next debut a win for the useful Championship Point at 15/2 (placed at Royal Ascot) in a division of the Newbury maiden with moderate Busy Shark unplaced at 9/1 in the other. Nursery winner 7/17 at Ripon at 11/2 next day. Batch of four debuts in late May with all up to average maiden winner class. FTO SP variable indicators with shortest SPs including bad & placed runs as did the long SPs.
    • Summary : - As ever the odd debut wins have been by high class ones with two Royal Ascot runners targeted at Newbury's mid-May maiden. The majority that start are up to winning an average maiden but may take time to do it. They are usually short of full fitness and places come along with weaker races so the SP is not fully correlated to the overall ability nor the performance on the day. If he has some better 2yos they may debut before Royal Ascot but miss the meeting. He seems to like them to have won well by mid to later May to go the Royal meeting.
    John Gosden
    • 2008 = First debut May 10th at Haydock with Seaway 2nd at 5/1 (2nd at Royal Ascot). 2nd debut May 16th at Newbury with Donativum 4th at 14/1 (Unplaced at Royal Ascot over 5f. Won Tattersalls Sales race from Group 1 winner & Grade 1 winner in US later). No debut over 6f until June 9th with later 4TO maiden winner 2nd at 4/1 at Windsor.
    • 2007 = First debut May 19th at Newbury with Revivalism's sole 2yo run unplaced at 11/1. Three more in May, all for Princess Haya, with Bastakiya 2nd at 9/1 at Lingfield (unplaced at Royal Ascot). Expensive later Nursery winner Fortuity 8th at 9/2 at Goodwood & moderate Bourse 14/1 at Newmarket & unplaced.
    • 2006 = Late start overall and only 2 runners before Raincoat's debut win over 7f on June 14th for Princess Haya. Two late May debuts for moderate to average maiden types both unplaced at 6/1 & 12/1.
    • 2005 = 3 debuts between May 12-14th at York & Newbury. Group 2 winner Leo 4th at York at 4/1. Tattersalls Stakes race winner Murfreesboro 7th at 12/1 at Newbury. Coventry Stakes favourite To Sender winner at Newbury at 5/1. Six more debuts in late May to June 6th with all unplaced FTO most at 5/1 to 8/1 range. Mostly maiden winners at best except for useful Racer Forever with two non-winners at 2yo.
    • Summary : - If the stable is well forward, as in 2005 & 2008 then the earliest runners will include some really high class horses. Only To Sender has actually won FTO during the period remember though and a duff debuts like that by Donativum leave the trainer unphased because he knows the good ones have plenty of late season targets. He will not press horses to get to Royal Ascot but if they have performed well in May then they will go although he prefers them to have won or to have had two goes beforehand. 
    • The early runners can include ordinary ones who occasionally leak into the smaller Newmarket meetings but tend to go to lesser tracks. The unpressed debuts mean that the SPs are of limited use in identifying the good ones.
    Richard Hannon
    • 2008 = First debut May 10th with useful Tishtar 3rd at Haydock at 7/1. 5 more 6f debuts May 16-17th at Newbury & Newmarket. FTO win at Newbury at 11/4 for Instalment (unplaced Royal Ascot) & other four in 3rd to 5th range at 15/2 to 20/1. Another batch of 5 May 21st to 24th with debut win at Goodwood at 4/1 for Elusive Wave (sold to run in France after). Mixed results for others mostly at shorter SPs with batch including two moderate non winners and useful Weald Park. 
    • 2007 = First debut May 19th at Newbury  with 9th & 17th places at 12/1 & 33/1 by solid later winners. Batch of 6 at May 23rd to 25th with usual mixed bag of abilities and SPs but two 3rd at best. 8f Group 1 winner unplaced FTO at 16/1. 
    • 2006 = First debut May 20th  at Newbury with Major Cadeaux winning at 7/1 (2nd at Royal Ascot) with moderate runner unplaced FTO at 40/1. Next batch of 5 between May 22nd to 27th with usual mix of abilities from non-winners to useful The Old Fella and the SPs uninformative about the better ones & the only places at 16/1 & 40/1. 
    • 2005 = First debut May 12th with Sonny Santino 3rd at York at 11/1. Two solid winners FTO at Newbury with 3rd at 9/2 & 5th at 25/1 on May 14th. Batch of 7 start-off May 20-28th & no FTO wins and one place at 6/1 by a non-winner. Usual wide range of abilities with high class Asset unplaced FTO at 6/4f.
    • Summary :- Newbury the usual start point & two prior debuts in period by similar OR88ish types who placed 3rd FTO. Hints of targeting Newbury with best they have ready and will win if high class but debuts for The Queen seem especially tuned & do not see the normally full improvement. Big batches of starters in later May do not seem to be particularly targeted and the Market seems to lose track of what quality they are. Only a very short SP (say 5/2 & less in solid field seems an indicator of higher class). The late month large batch will include a really good one.
    Barry Hills
    • 2008 = Odd season and no debuts until three moderate horses on May 31st at 8/1 to 40/1. No strong 6f debut before Royal Ascot & out of character for the trainer.
    • 2007 = First debut May 17th at York with win for Feared In Flight (placed Royal Ascot) at 6/1. 2nd 6f debut on June 1st with Bob's Surprise winning at 9/1 (unplaced Royal Ascot) at Goodwood & poor stablemate unplaced at 66/1. Two more 6f debuts before Royal Ascot by ok maiden winners unplaced at 9/1 & 5/2.
    • 2006 = First debut May 18th at York with Silkie Smooth 3rd at 10/3 & non winner. Poor one ran at Newbury unplaced at 33/1. Stable probably behind schedule with three moderate to average types debuting in early June unplaced. Cumin placed 2nd at Haydock on June 9th and placed at Royal Ascot and Thousand Words won at Newbury on June 15th (later Group winner & the type he would try to get to Royal Ascot).
    • 2005 =  First debuts May 28th at Doncaster with pair of good maiden winners 3rd at 40/1 and unplaced at 5/1 (won well STO). Three debuts on 3rd on June with wins at 4/1 & 11/2 at Goodwood & Haydock for Group winner Spinning Queen & high class Private Business who both missed Royal Ascot.
    • Summary :- Debuts before late May are rare and his prime target seems to be in early June when he will introduce some really high class ones that can win FTO. He seems to choose his York runners with care as he does for Doncaster.
    Mark Johnston
    • 2008 = First debut May 15th with later Group winner Shaweel 3rd at York at 100/30. 6 later debuts by end May with all unplaced and all but two (both non-winners) at 10/1 or more. Some very expensive or owner bred for the Maktoum family but looked like getting the moderate to average ones going.
    • 2007 = First debut May 15th with useful Abolition 2nd at Newcastle at 5/2. Hawaas unplaced at York at 8/1. Mafioso 4th at Ripon on May 20th at 9/2 and ok maiden winner. Later debuts mostly unplaced for moderate to average ones except for Hamilton win in mid-June for horse that ran at Royal Ascot.
    • 2006 =  First debut May 10th with Always Frutiful winning at Ripon. Useful runner 5th of 17 at Newcastle at 12/1 on May 12th. York maiden runner last at 10/1 sole run. Batch of moderate to average debuts in late May and some placed ones in second week in June.
    • 2005 =  First debut May 12th with useful Desert Realm last at York at 3/1 ran too freely. Debut win for In Full Cry at Ripon at 11/2. Usual batch of Maktoum family owned moderate to average types and then quality improve with mid June debuts.
    • Summary :- York runner for Maktoum family usually better class but can blow out although the trainer has less 'lost' debuts these days. Targets a good runner at Ripon in mid-May normally. Other early debuts can be ok types but need the runs. Stable has an awful lot of Maktoum family owner-breds and the end of May seems to be filled with a lot of these getting going and they are OR70s at best and some moderate. Better debuts and types for variable sources into June including Mr Shack & Mr Huggins.
    • ================
    • With that background in place let us have a brief look at the Haydock divisions. The initial point to make is that they have very different shapes to their profiles. The first division has a couple of runners with previous form who, with a modicum of improvement, will set a good standard for the newcomers. Looking at the table above these trainers do not get rafts of 6f winners in this period they get odd ones with their better types normally. The first race has two solid barriers to a debut win unless one of the newcomers is, say, OR90+ kit. The second division looks less well defended and if you discounted the previous form horses you have a pick between FTOs from the table above mostly and one of them would get a debut win somewhat by default. 
    • Kingdom Of Light comes out top on profile in Division 1 after a debut at Pontefract where he can with a reputation as being good but look backward in condition although 'big 'enough'. No surprise to see him stepped up to 6f after lacking pace at times and then plugging on to get back to 2nd late on. A difficult race to weigh up but the 1st three are worth treating as above average and they ran a different race to those who got well behind & faded or made a bit of progress (like Rock Of Love who was beaten yesterday). A solid favourite and a good a barrier to the newcomers.
    • Our Dream Queen was an 'eyecatcher' in a maiden at Newbury on wet & sticky ground which did not suit many horses. She made a quiet debut sitting in midfield before making ok progress to finish 3rd without looking likely to challenge. Just a solid physical type but with an improvers pedigree to help the belief she will improve and sets a good second level in the profile. The way that Newbury race is 'working out' is a good example of how the interplay of experience, race pace, ability & handling ground can mix the horses up at the finish. The 1st, 4th (miles behind Kingdom Of Light after getting upset in the stalls) & 6-8th have all been well beaten since. The two smaller, but well built, ones who looked unfit or too fizzy in Little Perisher & Stargaze have improved to place & win since. The paddock guy had those two marked as ok so one of his better days. 
    • Mal And Dave did not show enough FTO to believe he can compete here. Zambuka looked an ok size but backward and a stodgy mover FTO and predictably got left behind as a solid group of 'now' fillies went at it over 5f. On how she moved at Newmarket you would not be surprised to see a flat 6f a bit quick for her as well.
    • In this division you then have Gosden and Johnston represented by newcomers and time to check the summaries above. Isdaar must be a terrific physical type to cost 240,000gns in last year's depressed yearling market and given a humdrum (perhaps a kind description) dam's side. Since the stable also has Running Mate in Div II we can perhaps suggest that the stable is well forward this year. We should then expect that at least one of this pair is very good and will place. Wins tend to come with the really high class ones because of the relaxed preparation. On balance Isdaar would not be up to beating a Kingdom Of Light but a strong place a good return. With a lot of his horses starting in the 4/1 to 9/1 range the Market has a limited handle on what to expect because the trainer is not a 'Noseda' style this-things-ready handler. If you look at this - Table - it shows his wins to runs with debut horses at different SP ranges in recent years. To pick a few out that is 4/35 winners between 85-40 to 5/1 FTO but a better 7/29 for 11/2 to 10/1 range in 2007-8. That is not the way the 'Market' is supposed to work, Frank. 
    • Mark Johnston runs Step In Time who is by Giant's Causeway out of a Grade 1 winning dam and the trainer loves to buy 'cheaper' yearling with high class relations. A pedigree that should provide a solid winner and the debut in the first batch rather than the 'Maktoum Surplus Stock' period a plus. A promising debut likely to not up to winning and his York debut runner next week should be the best early one.
    • A few other points in the Northern newcomers. Kevin Ryan could have been included in the table above because he has a recognisable approach with early 6f debuts. In summary the earliest debut runners will include 2-3 useful or better ones if he has them and strong debuts are common. Those who go well FTO without winning usually win STO to order. He often selects he good one for York which can go well whatever the SP. However, the cheap filly Mary Celest looks more of an ordinary one kicking off than a better one. 
    • Ed McMahon & John Fretwell tried hard to win the 5f fillies' maiden here recently with Aalsmeer and the trainer goes in for strong debuts for the owner overall. Reeds Bay reads as a unlikely high class debut by Monsieur Bond out of a moderate dam. This looks a strong race as well. A word also for Tom Tate who has his first runner with Kylladie. Mr Tate had his third profitable year in four with debuts in 2008 although the timing in the year has varied. from June to September. The Market does not really rate him so the longer priced winners. Along with many other trainers the earliest runner(s) may not win but will competitive and able to win at a lower level. One to watch for his STO at a lesser course.
    • In summary Kingdom Of Light a solid favourite and Our Dream Queen a good back up. Two higher class debut types with Isdaar & Step In Time but in the long run not good value for the odd wins this type of profile suggests in a race with solid experience. Places to 4th would be fine promise and Isdaar might be Royal Ascot class.
    • ===========
    • Division II has a different shape with Polly Macho the best of those with form. He was always struggling to keep up with the leading three in a race with a stiff pace at Leicester and stalled late on. Having watched the Evans' horses running well at Chester this week he should improve and set a reasonable standard for the newcomers and a fair chance of an each-way place. Ginger Ted steps up to 6f with blinkers after getting left behind in a slick ground 5f race and then a soft ground one but plugging on. He has been seller entered but a non-runner and he should be able to win one of those but this seems too high unless his power has tightened up well. What to make of Whippers Love who was backed for the Brocklesby but another Johnston 'Lost Debut' like the old days. No improvement STO and blew up again. He must be better than that but one to avoid until he puts a race together.
    • The odd newcomer is Howard Johnston's Urban Clubber who is owned by Transcend Bloodstoock (his joint venture with Graham Wylie) so ought to be a stronger debut. She is pretty cheap by their standards and by an older mare who used to produce Group class runners. Difficult one to place and a loner SP in double figures says she is here just to get started.
    • If you assume no surprises from the set above the race then boils down to a bit of a pinstick, before the paddock review, between Running Mate (Gosden), Tislaam (Channon), Sir Parky (Hannon) & Atacama Crossing (BW Hills). Using the summaries above you would say that that Atacama Crossing is least likely to be a winner. Sir Parky is probably a solid OR80s type for the Hannon's but they will be saving their best 6f 2yos for Newbury next week. Channon also has used Newbury for his recent Royal Ascot types to start and so the FTO wins in the period. Tislaam reads as an ok maiden winner for one of his preferred owners who should make the first four. Running Mate reads as the likelier high class Gosden debut on the night and Princess Haya his preferred owner in that sense and Seaway was second in the race last year for her one debut (to a good class STO Channon filly for  Tislaam's owner).
    • In summary, Polly Macho might be a bother if he gets and easy lead and the better newcomers are a bit short on nous & basic go. With four solid ones to oppose you think something will get by. Urban Clubber an interesting sideshow but pass over. It then becomes a pick between four newcomers from non-FTO trainers for the most part but one 'has to win'. The Market is going to be of limited use because the trainers will all say they are 'a nice horse who should go well but they will come on for the run..' Atacama Crossing seems least likely & the best of Running Mate & Tislaam to prove too strong for Sir Parky. Slight preference for the Gosden horse given one of his runners here ought to be very good.
    • ==============
    • The Ascot 5f Maiden has been going for the last two years and the two editions have produced widely different fields. A large set of 11 in 2007 had eight winners during the season in it with the Windsor Castle winner and the Coventry Stakes runner-up 6th & 2nd on their debuts. Just useful types at best bedside including Monsieur Chevalier's full brother (Mr Fips, 9th at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle). Last year the only four ran with a withdrawal and although the whole field were winners over the season they were just above average maiden winners. A couple were entered in claimers in late season because they were struggling with their inflated handicap marks. One was the debut winner Glamorous Spirit who had looked a real wind-up job to win FTO with the Italian connections shouting the place down. She proved short of better class and has ended up with Ron Harris over the winter. He has done what he always does with cast-offs and turned them into one-dimensional forcing front-runners. She has started winning again at low level and broken the 5f track record at Kempton to show that the zip Noseda saw early from her early last year is still there in some form.
    • Another small field this year and another Noseda debut runner. Thinking back the 5 trainers above they have managed 9 debut wins between them from 100+ horses spread over 5 years and a months worth of each season. Mr Noseda had 5 with his first 7 runners last year in just over a month with Glamorous Spirit the middle of the bunch. The debut readiness and target for FTOs is clearly different. Noseda's Key Art was supposed to run at Windsor on Monday when his first runner of the year (Paradise Dream) was second in a farce of a race at Kempton with a very slow pace (still looking like an attempt on the land-speed record compared to Yesterday's Ormonde Stakes, though. He ran ok without looking to get past the leader who was allowed to dawdle until approaching the final furlong. Getting half a second back on any reasonable 2yo in 1.5 furlongs is a tough assignment especially when the winner can get a split second break by choosing when to kick into gear (in the same way that the jockeys behind Buccellati were beaten before the 2 furlong sprint started. The number of middle distances horses ever born that could give Buccellati a start, best track position on the faster strip on the rail and beat him over 2 furlongs would be very short).
    • The market ended up believing in Paradise Dream enough to make him favourite but after a drift & back with support for others. The 'expected' debuts are often strongly supported. The first five last year had two at odds-on and Glamorous Spirit was 11/8f. Key Art has a solid pedigree for the job and the Market should be informative as to whether he is an ok one or here to win.
    • A couple of good rivals with Monsieur Joe & the filly Absolute Music The first of those made an above average debut for Walter Swinburn when second at Windsor and is a half brother to a May 5f winner last year in Cerito who was borderline Listed class (winning a nursery off the magic OR88 figure to highlight the point). The quality of the field behind him at Windsor seems very questionable so you are relying on Monsieur Joe progressing well to STO but that feels like a good assumption. The trainer's other early debuts this years have been promising while lacking real readiness as you would expect. In that context Monsieur Joe made a better FTO effort and also made a move late on in the race and finished the race off well as a plus. The trainer has run 6 at Ascot in his short time with a licence and the four in Group races have been well beaten. The runners below that level have placed 2nd & 3rd at 2/1 & 7/1 so he is choosing the right horses for those jobs. A solid profile to produce a good opponent to Key Art and take advantage of any readiness or advantage shortfall.
    • The filly Absolute Music is a fascinating runner and the Market should be able to help with how good she is. She was supposed to run at Doncaster a week ago but a non-runner and she would have been her trainer's first runner. He is notable for getting debut wins with his better 2yos and the way the Doncaster race fell apart you think this filly would have won. That thought was franked the following day when he ran a filly - High Spice - against the colts at Newmarket on the following day. She started at 10/1 and comfortably & professionally, dealt with the colts and goes straight to the Queen Mary. You presume that Absolute Music has worked with High Spice in some form and the win for that filly has meant redirecting Absolute Music to this more prestigious maiden than scuffling around at Donny. A filly to take seriously and see how the Market reacts since trainer & jockey know how she compares to High Spice.
    • Little Perisher is an interesting marker horse but should come up short in this field. His trainer often runs this type in better races as maidens and then forgets to win a race while he is ahead of the others in precocity. The sort you could see still struggling to win a maiden and trying nurseries in late season.
    • Richard Hannon starts Master Of Dance off in the race but the set-up of the race means he will have to be Group class to win off a trainer preparation. Hannon's record with Ascot debuts since 2002 is 3 from 23 with one in 2006 since 2004. Oddly the SPs of the three wins have been long enough to show a profit. He started the season maiden Hold That Call (struggling off OR50s these days) in the race in 2007 and the OR80+ type Roly Boy was 4th and last in 2008 as 11/4. A £30,000 son of Noverre out of a dam who has produced development 7f+ winners puts a lot of emphasis on the sire provided the 5f go and quality. Overall the Ascot start-offs for the trainer have been a mixed bag and 2008 was a good example. Three Ascot debuts saw the ok winner from this race and two non-winners over the season with one disposed of in a seller. The phrase 'Social Runner' for some of them by the looks of it.
    • Clive Brittain clearly has a batch ready early in 2009 and Jira is the fifth filly to run for his main patron owner Saaed Manana (Dubai connected). The previous four have included 1 win by the useful looking Misheer (owning a believable high class sprint pedigree) and a 3rd in a weak race for a filly with a 10f+ pedigree. Another one by a stout sire was well beaten at Windsor on Thursday. This one is not as stout but does not look a 5f pedigree and you would be surprised if she could compete here. If she can then she must be very high quality and will develop well through the season. On balance, likely to be looking for a solid intro to judge quality. The trainer has had two debuts at the course in recent years with one for the useful later winner Yahrab & one for the overtried Ghasiba who ran in Group 1 races but remained a maiden through her career.
    • In summary, and interesting three way match at the front of the profile with Monsieur Joe a real obstacle to the two better looking debut types. The market should help with what quality & readiness the newcomers are. If Key Art is very good and expected to win then the vibes should say so. Absolute Music has trained with a filly who would win this race first time so the connections have a good line on what to expect.
    • =======================
    • A couple of point about the Thirsk Seller and first to note that Reel Credit Crunch was declared before she placed in a Class 3 maiden at Chester. Her run there was not an improvement but confirmation of the low level form needed to win the race with Swilly Ferry not looking fully fit and not seeing the race out again. It is also likely to be a real demonstration of the major advantage racing on the lane next to the rail was at the meeting. Leaving aside running less distance being on the rail just looked a faster strip of ground. The newcomer winner - Metal Soldier - tracked Reel Credit Crunch in the rail lane then nipped inside her to the better strip rather than pressing on in lane 3 throughout the race like Swilly Ferry's jockey (5-10lbs disadvantage say?).
    • Anyway, that effort would be good enough to win unless Lairy is a better Nicholls debut. He had a strong record with Thirsk seller debuts in 2008 with a win and a second and both runners won above seller level later. This one was originally entered for a Redcar seller and the newcomers to run so far this year from the stable have looked well short of readiness. The way Mister Mannannan improved hugely from a solid looking debut another indicator of that as much as the off-the-back flounderers.
    • Low quality in the Warwick Auction which is at the intermediate 5.5f distance. Kaspirit sets the standard on those that have run unless Reddy To Star can show the support on debut was based on anything worthwhile. His run was so lifeless that to expect a great leap forward is difficult. Sweet Baby Jane is another 5f debut for Richard Fahey and would have a chance off bottom weight off a decent trainer 5f debut. However, two more moderate ones yesterday at the distance would make you wonder whether the trainer is as forward as usual or has the overall quality.

    Back to Top of Page

    © British 2yo Racing. All rights reserved.