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A typically small field for the 5f Novice race at Windsor
with just 4 runners although all are winners. On profile the race is a
match between Red Avalanche & Crown with the other two
having won modest events on the all-weather. Lucky Mellor improved
notably from debut on the slower surface at Southwell to win an Auction
race but partly helped by a good draw. That race did not feature any runners
with solid previous form and he beat two other high drawn horses who had
also failed to record a positive rating in three goes between them. The
fourth has gone on to run 3rd at Hamilton in a highly suspect race run
in the slowest time for a juvenile 5f there since 2002 (on heavy going
rather than the later races GSG). Everything from 6th back in the Southwell
race is probably garbage. Not a horse to follow on profile.
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The filly Art Jewel tail swished her way to the start on debut at
Lingfield all-weather course and never stopped during the race. More of
a mannerism than appearing to be directly related to showing a dislike
of proceedings. She was given an uncharacteristically bullying ride from
the start by Jamie Spencer as if hs had been told she needed sorting out,
or her mind making up for her, at least. She led by half a length at halfway
from the small & compact Any Day and managed to take a bit more than
a length out of that filly in the straight given the full whip drive. None
of the 'educational intro' stuff to have a kind experience for STO. It
did make her look like an expendable one rather than a better class project
for the connections.
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The fourth from that race has won a seller which partly confirms the general
weakness of the field but at least they were usable weaker ones up front.
The runner-up - Any Day - is due to run earlier in the day at Wolverhampton
so worth checking how she went. On the positive side FTO wins for the stable
(and his father previously) are rare unless they are better class but this
did not really look like that set-up. More of an empty race that an OR70s
filly ought to be able to win. She comes up short on profile. [It is interesting
to think back to 2008's edition though where a similar filly managed to
win form some better horses. That filly - River Rye - was got rid of by
Richard Hannon in later season in a claimer and struggled on the AW over
the winter getting down to a lowly OR of 58. These small fillies without
scope to develop can be troublesome in early season while there precocity
advantage is still there.]
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Red Avalanche has improved with each run following a clueless debut behind
Star Rover & Desert Auction. More aware of requirements & a bit
fitter STO he ran Star Rover much closer until a late fade. He seemed to
improve for easier going on his next run in a race where many of the others
seemed not to. But, he had also continued to improve in condition and mental
maturity and ran away from a mixed group. The official margin was 4 lengths
but he was 8 lengths clear before being eased and did not look hard pressed
to be that far ahead. With a positive review and a Run Style which means
he can lead and avoid problems with a slow pace he looks a strong favourite
and a horse to follow.
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A week ago on Bank Holiday Monday the Hannon stable showed how they pick
the horses to run early with some care. Three wins on the day with STO
or 3TO juveniles who had bits of promise previously but not placed. One
of those was the filly Crown who had seemed to be one of their better early
fillies from some of the circumstances of the first two runs. But, the
performance when faced with a set of solid fillies at Newmarket suggested
she was limited to around the OR75 level. In that context the comfortable
win at the course last week seemed a step forward. That is a niggle because
we saw last week with Desert Auction that once the Hannon horses find their
form it can continue to improve into the next run. She had to beat a Channon
newcomer to win last time and you suspect she used her experience to get
the better of a more talented rival who was well short of his best but
will improve a lot.
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The trainer tends to rank his early 2yos and run them in particular Novice
& Conditions races. His runners in this event tend not to be the higher
class ones in line with last year's runner. If we think about the horses
he has to choose from he has run Kings Of Leo in the Lily Agnes and he
rarely runs his best there and more a useful early type. The next big 5f
target is the Conditions race at Windsor next Monday and he normally runs
close to his best Royal Ascot prospect in that race. Crown does not fit
that so it will be interesting to see who he chooses. Monsieur Chevalier
& Desert Auction have already won at Conditions level some might not
be chosen and Planet Red seems the likely choice.
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In summary, two horses who have improved with racing and seemed to put
up their best performances on their third run meet and should be too strong
for the other pair. Red Avalanche's win last time as an improvement from
pressing a solid marker like Star Rover previously looked like a high class
effort unless the softer ground made the real difference. He is preferred
to show he can repeat that good run. Crown his best opponent now she appears
to have improved but the trainer tends not to run the high class fillies
in this event.
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The Class 4 Fillies' Auction race at Wolverhampton is for those
that cost 15,000 guineas of less at the sales. Even in last year's depressed
yearling sales markets that would make these cheaper end purchases. The
Class 4 reflecting the fact that the racecourse have upped the prize money
rather than it being aimed at expensively purchased horses. Each year the
vast majority of cheap ones will be moderate or poor athletes and many
not even get to the races. A small percentage will develop well enough
to be able to rate above OR70 and if they can be precocious and run early
in the year then that increases the chances of winning and rating more
highly.
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Now, if you set yourself the task of putting a list together of cheap fillies
who have shown some good form so fair but are still maidens the runners
in this race would make up a good proportion of it. Add in a few improvers
with unplaced runs and Dascombe newcomer he is supposed to think a bit
of and you have a truly competitive early season race.
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The key horse in form terms is Diamond Laura who was held up on
debut behind a frantic pace and put a strong finish in to chase Monsieur
Chevalier and no problem that she was some way back from him. She beat
Anjomarba
comfortably there and she went on to run well when just beaten by Grand
Zafeen at Pontefract with a later winner well back in third. The feel of
a solid seam of form working it's way out through the early season races.
Diamond Laura has recorded better ratings than Anjomarba and had more scope
to improve from their initial meeting anyway. She then went to Windsor
for a fillies' race and led this time from a high draw and got into a tussle
for the lead that set the race up for Azif to pounce on her from a stalking
5th after she had dropped the pair that pressed her for the lead. She was
giving Azif weight and responded to her to finish strongly again. Azif
represented a Newmarket fillies' race that has now produced three winners
(including Crown) so two solid form lines meeting.
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Those behind Diamond Laura include two that have won since with Existentialist
a good winner at the course last week and Kings Of Leo (pressed Diamond
Laura) for the lead turning pouncer to win last week as well (from a filly
who is in the later claimer at Wolverhampton). Which means Diamond Laura
is a solid filly with a strong finish and form that has really been franked
at similar levels. A good profile.
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The race gets more interesting because two fillies who were behind her
last time at Windsor but showed promise are both in this race as well.
Little
Brazilien broke well from a low to go across to join Diamond Laura
& Kings Of Leo in a three-way pace battle. She got tired inside the
final furlong to drop to fourth but that would seem good promise? She was
33/1 that day and the trainer does sometimes wind limited 2yos up for debut
and they fail to progress because you saw what they could do first time.
On balance she looks a pass and a Draw in 11 makes life very tough for
her.
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The 6th from Windsor Ice Cool Lady probably has more improvement
and was backed down to 3rd favourite. Trainer Swinburn has run more early
2yos this year and the vibes FTO have been that they have been good types
but the debuts have been typically uncompetitive, Swinburn is no David
Evans. The first of those to run STO was Monsieur Joe at Ascot over the
weekend and the confidence seemed high he could win. He did not seem to
handle the quicker ground in a low race with a late race sprint and flopped.
She was 8th through halfway behind Diamond Laura FTO and made her way to
6th without being pressed. Interesting to see what the market says and,
in theory, she has a good draw in 1. That is only if she can use the rail
efficiently against a bunch of race hard zippy fillies.
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Victorian Art made a good start FTO in early season and got involved
in a pace duel with a little filly that broke her up in the last furlong.
That looks an ok effort now in the context of this race but a 42 day break
does not seem a positive. However, respect for a good trainer means she
cannot be entirely dismissed. Any Day probably can be discounted
and she seems to have little to offer beyond what we saw last time out
and that means she will come up short in this group.
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Much more interesting is Avonvalley who went into the (real &
electronic notebook) for her effort last time at Bath. She got involved
in a suicidal line-of-three pace war uphill then that wore most of the
field down. She saw off the little fillies that tried to mix it with her
bulkier frame but softened herself up to any closer. In that context to
hang on for second being a, probably useful, clear winner was a good effort.
The horses behind her in 3rd to 7th looked solid on the pre-race profile.
They have confirmed that with two winners from the group plus Pinnacle
Lad's somewhat unlucky third at Ripon having participated in another pointless
frantic pace (also behind Dispol Kabira's 66/1 success come to that).
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Of the newcomers Sylvester Kirk does not get FTO winners unless they are
very good & Ellmollell looks just an average type if she is
usable at all. The trainer does not seem to frontload the early debuts
with later winners and just run whatever he has ready of any ability. Tom
Dascombe had his third FTO winner of the year on Saturday with Antonius
Moris and he has said that Above Limits is promising. But, she has
run into a tough race here and a win from this group giving the best of
them weight looks too tough.
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In summary, if you leave out Run Style & Efficiency concerns then Diamond
Laura & Avonvalley appeal most as the best mix of types, form, finishes
& professionalism at the weights. Anjomarba should go well but come
up short but will probably be third. Any Day has little chance at the weights.
Little Brazilien on profile seems an unlikely improver and a wide draw
a real problem. Ice Coo Lady more likely to improve but has not shown the
professionalism to use her draw and this bunch will put her through the
mincer unless she has wised up appreciably. Some respect for Victorian
Art but off a long absence and got blown up by a minor talent like Michaelmas
Daisy FTO. Above Limits & Ellmollell both probable future winners at
different levels but a debut win a stretch of the imagination.
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Now, at Wolverhampton the 5f start is only just over 1 furlong from the
home bend and that is a tight horseshoe to the straight. As at Chester,
getting the right position on the bend and using it to control the pace
and force others wide can be a key to winning. A five-in-a-line slugfest
between Anjomarba, Any Day, AvonValley, Victorian Art & Diamond Laura
around the bend is not going to work for any of them and by halfway around
the bend you should be looking behind the line to see who is best placed
to jump to the lead when that line disintegrates in the straight.
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For those who want to watch it done by a real pro then Harry Up is drawn
1 in the 5f claimer at 3:10 with regular opponent Desperate Dan out in
box 8. He has run 8 times at the course over 5f already this year and led
through halfway in 7 of them. The one exception was when he got a bad draw
in 10 and could only get to 2nd. The four wins on those 8 runs have come
when he has managed to get to an easy and clear lead more than 1 length
ahead of the rest (no eyeballing & friction). He then sets his own
pace and runs his most efficient race and records a time between 61.0 to
61.6 second. If you let him have a soft lead and run 61.6s you are not
going to get him back and he will roll to the line. When he fails something
goes wrong to upset his rhythm. He cannot get to an easy lead on his preferred
path just off the rail. He has to force past others to lead or gets hung
wide of a horse on the bend. Just having some pressure with another horse
overlapping him can provide the required friction to mean he will get overhauled
late on. Another horse that can run 60.35 will beat him as well. Looking
at the other horses he faces tomorrow they are not pressers in normal mode
and he has a solid chance of being able to run his preferred race and be
very hard to reel in late.
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A smaller field for the Claimer at Wolverhampton and less pressure
to interact with the Run Style issues. As with Sellers these races always
have a fascination to see if any trainer has given up on a horse people
think are promising and decided to dispose of it. Go back to Mid-April
and Six Wives was the second favourite for the important Craven
Meeting fillies' maiden representing major connections who had won the
race in 2008 with the Queen Mary & Flying Childers favourite. How much
did the 'Market' know there, Frank? (sorry, trying to get a catchphrase
going to 'get' Carter). An outpaced effort there followed by blowing herself
up with the pacemaking STO and Haggas & Cheveley Park Stud have decided
she is surplus stock. Remember that Haggas got rid of The Magic Of Rio
in a claimer last year after she had won a (weak) nursery off OR84 so she
might still be usable. She is in to be claimed for £14,000 so she
is here to go.
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That Warwick third looked a suspect race the way she & Kings Of Leo
walked through the last furlong with moderate fillies closing them down
strongly. Quite encouraging for the Video Review department to see Six
Wives here in that sense. But, the trainer learnt some of his craft with
Mark Prescott and does know what OR level his horses are so she will be
a solid favourite here off her weight. Transfixed is a reliable
rival who seems to run her race each time but with a bit less go than Six
Wives overall even getting 6lbs. The topweight colt stablemate of Transfixed
got outpaced at the course last time in weak race. He does not appeal to
improve strongly to show the pace required for this, probably stronger,
event. Out The Ring ought to run well if he could show his debut
form but his last two races have been such tame surrenders he feels more
like one to avoid. Only Lady Lion should get involved of the others and
she has not seen races out that well and is passed over.
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Six Wives is in stall 7 so her best Run Style would be to try to drop in
3rd or 4th and hope that some mix of Lady Lion, Transfixed & Out The
Ring press on and mutually burst. Her closing style is likely to look very
laboured if she has to try to overhaul one of that three if they get a
'Harry Up' textbook time trial run so not a strong fancy. But, her trainer
tends to know how to play these races so just top on profile. Wonder if
Lady Lion can 'Do a Harry' from Stall 1? Are Turner's horses still improving
for runs this year?
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A few points to note at Redcar where Farmer Giles tries
to become Michael Bell's first winner of the year. He was 4 from 4 this
time last year and 5 from 7 at the end of May. This one has started hanging
right on the uphill section at Leicester on both his runs. The first time
that was the end of his effort and he faded early. Last time it cost him
a win as he lost out in a photo to a rival that ran straight while he was
being heavily corrected. Interesting to see whether this has been corrected
and whether this flatter course puts less pressure on him. He does not
appeal as a shorter priced favourite though with a clear problem with the
way he handles the later stages of race. Ignatieff also hung left
here after setting a strong pace last time and should put Farmer Giles
under enough pressure to test how professional he is. Worth watching to
see how Burtondale Boy improves from a dreadful run in the Brocklesby
as well. The trainer ran the usable ones early in 2008 but has looked to
have little worthwhile this year so perhaps this one was ok but ran poorly
and can improve.
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Two newcomers of interest with the obvious one Mark Johnston's Avonrose.
Since the early runs in March & April which were poor the last three
debuts have produced a win (by a solid type in a race that fell apart)
and two seconds. This is likely to be another solid debut although she
would probably need to be one of his best 5f fillies to win this FTO. Howard
Johnson has started a little earlier than normal and had one reasonable
debut (Kingdom Of Light who won STO) and several moderate ones from horses
with thin profiles for the first run. Makbullet has a much stronger
profile being an expensive, relatively, son of cult sire Makbul who is
notable for early season wins and FTO successes. This one is a full brother
to a useful filly call Goldeva who won on debut at 2yo in 2001 on May 10th
at Chester. She proved to be Listed winner quality as an older horse to
assist that early win. But, this one is owned by Transcend rather than
the trainer alone of one of his less important connections. The better
ones usually place at least for the trainer FTO and he has won this race
before with a 20/1 newcomer.
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At Yarmouth the Callaghan filly Mahiki comes out top on profile
by some way and kept going long enough at Newmarket in a solid race to
believe she can win here. In height terms she looked at home in that expensive
group but leggier and light framed and is in much easier company now. Kaspirit
is a different type being smaller and readier & her form against Desert
Auction is not strong with that colt beating her comfortably and not having
to improve much to win a Conditions race. Daniella De Bruijn made
some progress after bungling the break FTO but that looked pretty worthless
closing on tired horses and at a low level of form anyway. The trainer
is closing on his second anniversary since a juvenile win during the Turf
Season.
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Last Orders was ignored in the Market on debut for what are a normally
fairly shrewd stable. He ran ok until fading late with the smaller Kaspirit
overtaking him comfortably. He has to give weight away again here and the
Market should tell you what to expect in improvement terms. The Quinlan
yard has hd 8 winners from 42 runners at Yarmouth since 2002 and none have
been at more than 11/2 and most at 7/2 and under. If you sort his list
of runners by SP you get a reasonable match with place range (the odd surprise
of course but usually the Market seems a reliable indicator).
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Another test of whether Marco Botti has given up being a 'Ready FTO' stable
with Fasilight who is by a ok 5f sire out of a stouter dam. The
stable's only runner to date in 2009 was never put in the race to win despite
finishing second and held up at the back to trundle past the stalled rabbits
late but well behind the winner. Clive Brittain trained that winner but
all his other FTOs this year have been more typically uncompetitive suggested
Misheer was a useful exception. Shibhan at least has a believable
5f pedigree on the sire side unlike many of the debuts to date but does
not read as a better one.
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