-
Virtual Paddock = York (Fratellino
& Starburst Excel)
-
===================
-
The 5f Novice at York was introduced in 2005 when the males' 5f
maiden was dropped and the Listed 5f 'Marygate Stakes' for fillies introduced
onto the card & still the earliest race at that level. In it's history
it has proved to have limited significance in 2yo terms with only one later
juvenile Listed or Group winner having run it it. The field have been variable
but have tended to feature a set of early maiden winners with limited
scope. Chief Editor won it in 2006 with Dubai's Touch a, not untypical,
poor Mark Johnston debut at the meeting on his was to being a Listed winner
at 2yo and older. Last year's race saw the Hilary Needler runner-up Carabola
placed but she was below Listed Class in full season terms.
-
A tricky set-up this year with just a couple of previous winners and three
maidens with debuts of some promise although difficult to tie down fully.
Fratellino managed to win a moderate early season Auction race and
has been shown to be well below the ability level to win this type of race.
On his size and lack of development you would be surprised if he were competing
strongly off OR70s figures in later season. Discounted along with him would
be the newcomer Elusive Sue who appears to be the trainer's second
string. Richard Fahey has not shown the strong 5f debuts this year for
the most part & either he is behind schedule or has a lesser group
in 2009 in quality. His expensive US bred debuts who have run at the York
May meeting have not tended to be high class either. A profile which means
a later maiden race winner would be a good result & not up to winning
this.
-
King Of Axom was a debut winner for Mark Johnston which used to
indicate a high class horse a few years ago. These days he can get them
with just better class maiden winners (say OR80s types) and the Doncaster
race seemed suspect. The withdrawals of the two southern stables representatives
left a thin race on profile and the Market casting around to try to find
a favourite & settling on the Johnston & Easterby runners. probably
just because they were from the biggest stables rather than any strong
view on ability. A thin race in theory got peculiar in practice with Lees
Anthem held up for bit then taking off to halfway and dragging the field
along behind. That left King Of Axom struggling in last and driven along
and looking inexperienced. Lees Anthem did his wobbling act in later race
and the other newcomers who had tried to keep up faded in centre track.
Which left the race open for King Of Axom & Flower Of Scotland to trundle
through to duel for the win. But, without having got into the race.
-
Which means that having to give 5lbs away to the other colts is a tough
task on what King Of Axom actually achieved FTO. On the plus side he is
a solid physical type and can clearly improve just for being more competent.
However, the race seems likely to be run at a strong pace and put his natural
pace to the test again. Overall, a pass giving the weight.
-
A stronger pace seems assured because Fratellino has pressed forward in
all three races and Starburst Excel was a length clear after a quick
break to front run from a tough field of fillies at Newmarket. She faded
into the final furlong but the fillies she finished with have mostly upheld
the form. She was entered for the 'Marygate Stakes' on Friday along with
two other fillies from the Newmarket race (including Azif who was behind
her) and the trainer had the runner up in that race with Langs Lash last
year. The stable mostly judge their 2yos well so that may mean they think
she is ok without being strong Listed level. The VP for the race shows
her before the Newmarket run before she was saddled. Already bouncing along
one her toes & starting to sweat. A ready, compact and fizzy speed
filly on looks but lacking real high class power and a match for how she
ran. Overall, she should run well and help to set a proper pace to test
the others but a better quality type ought to be able to close her down
in the final furlong provided they have not got too far back.
-
Ventura Cove got into a similar set-up on his debut when STO Dispol
Keasha blasted off down the rail on another fast, flatter, 5f at Musselburgh.
She is also entered for the 'Marygate' on Friday. Though he broke well
he looked less than wound up for debut and could not deal with the fillies'
pace going through halfway in 3rd and three lengths off the lead. He lost
a bit more ground as Dispol Keasha pressed on after halfway and did not
seem to be going anywhere. In the final furlong some mix of the filly slowing
and him starting to stride out properly kicked in and he close up to her
in taking style and stretching out well on the ground. If he can be more
aware and keep close to the pace you would be pretty hopeful that sort
of finish would get him to the front late on here. A slight worry that
he actually needs a stiffer 5f or perhaps 6f to show his best would mean
looking for a value price around 3/1 or better.
-
The darker horse is Paradise Dream who represents a trainer who
has a close to 30% strike rate at the course although a 0 from 4 record
with recent runners at this May meeting. The four horses he has run in
May have included later US Grade winner Wilko (unplaced), Listed winner
Salut D'Amour (2nd in the inaugural 'Marygate') and Awinnersgame (2nd in
this race last year & supported, OR100+ at season end). So, he tends
to bring good ones here but they will still have improvement left in them.
-
Last year the trainer started with a batch of debut wins in May and strong
support for many of them. He has run two so far this year and the Market
has said that neither was ready and so it proved. Paradise Dream was involved
in a farce of a race at Kempton where Jimmy Fortune got away with setting
a crawl as the others, including this one, were too green to do anything
to change it. When the real sprint started 1.5 furlongs out Paradise Dream
made a brief effort to close and got away from the others but then faded
back late. Nothing proved either way other than the early Noseda horses
were not tuned up FTO. If he is better class then he should be strongly
supported and a shorter price favourite especially with Dettori riding.
-
In summary, Fratellino not good enough and Elusive Sue probably
the same and not ready enough mentally either. King Of Axom should improve
from FTO and set a good standard but in unproven in quality & pace
terms and has to give weight. Starburst Excel may well lead and prove troublesome
to haul back but the better colts may have the more quality to get to the
lead later on if they can keep close enough. Fratellino may help to soften
her up and King Of Axom may turn into a typical Johnston presser to add
to the pace. Preference overall for Ventura Cove to show that later race
surge was real now he has more experience. Paradise Dream an obvious danger
but likely to be a shorter price and the trainer has had high class horses
beaten at the meeting as well. [Overall the 5 trainers other than Alan
McCabe are a combined 1 from 22 with May Meeting runners so something has
to give. That 'One' was by Mark Johnston in 2002.]
-
=================
-
Not a great deal to say about the Maiden at Bath. The Mick Channon
trained Toga Tiger has a very solid profile and the opposition does
not look up to beating him off FTO unless Don't Tell Mary is a high
class Dascombe debut. The race Toga Tiger made his debut in looked solid
at the front end at the time and it has worked out a bit better than that.
The second (Avonvalley) ran really well in defeat at Wolverhampton two
days ago in what seems a borderline Listed affair in quality, the fourth
(Stargaze) has continued to grow up and won at Lingfield, the sixth (Pinnacle
Lad) ran well at Ripon and might have won but for setting a stiff pace,
the seventh (Avon River) was the conveyance Jimmy Fortune bamboozled Paradise
Dream on at Kempton & the 11th (Quaker Parrot) won a duff Warwick fillies
race yesterday. Give all that you would not be looking to oppose horses
from that race lightly. Those further back like Slice, Timelord & Queen's
Hawk look a lot more interesting now than they did just post race. Which
means that Toga Toger's third in the race having had to get across from
the widest stall 16 was a fine effort. Add in an effort made to progress
to fourth after 2 furlongs and he ran very well. Obviously a strong profile.
-
With Moonlight Serenade looking moderate to poor the opposition
comes from newcomers. Nepotism runs for a trainer who does not get
debut wins so goes out. David Evans should still have one more good sprinter
to show us before the end of May that will probably win FTO with a wire-to-wire
performance. Bath is a reasonable place to look for that but Highcliffe
Bridge's pedigree looks a bit thin. Ralph Beckett will be getting into
full FTO win mode soon (say early June) but Glass Of Red has been
declared for three races this week with a 3lb apprentice rather than Sanders
or a senior on two occasions. Overall she does not look a higher class
one on overall profile and the pedigree not fully 5f.
-
The Bath race Toga Tiger ran in was Peter Winkworth's first debut winner
of the season and was supported strongly to do it. He runs The Cardinal's
Hat here by US sire High Yield who has good strike rates with small
numbers of British 2yo runners. The wins have come in later season although
the dam is reasonable sprint support. A possible for a strong FTO effort
but short of the level required to beat Toga Tiger.
-
Tom Dascombe has had three debut winners this year and the readiness and
nous they have shown has not been present in stable debuts in previous
years. So, an adaptation of methods to some extent but probably also linked
to the increased number of 2yos he has and the greater quality he has been
able to purchase with new owner coming to the yard. On Monday he had another
debut filly (Above Limits) well supported to joint favourite in a tough
race that Diamond Laura won from Avonvalley. Although third that was a
cracking debut effort and something similar from Don't Tell Mary would
put a bit of strain on Toga Tiger. The Market should be able to give some
real pointers about her standing amongst the stable 2yos. Worth noting
she is the first runner for new sire Starcraft who won over 6f as a 2yo
in New Zealand. The dam has produced one very high class sprint 2yo as
well as more lesser types but a pedigree that might produce a solid one.
-
In summary, Toga Tiger ran a good debut in a race which looks very solid
for the level. A similar professional run and seeing the race out a little
stronger on STO and in a race with less pace pressure makes his seem a
good favourite. A couple of stronger possibles for good debuts from Don't
Tell Mary & perhaps The Cardinal's Hat and the Market seems to have
a working link now to these stables when they have an above average one.
|